Fake Models?

[Speed Figure]

Why when a model shows you a factor is 0 for 25 it shows a -$2.00 lost. Don't you think it should say -$50.00. If you bet $2.00 on that factor each time you lost $50.00. A so called model makes it look like you only lost -$2.00 why?

[Buckeye]

Because it's a fraction really: -2.00 per every $2 you bet. You didn't lose $50 per $2 bet, that would not be possible. It's up to you to know how many $2 units are involved. If you lost -2/2 that means you lost 100% of how ever many units of $2 you played, in this case 25. So you lost 100% of your $2 units or -2 times 25 for a total loss of $50.

[Speed Figure]

I'm not saying you lost $50 per $2 bet. I'm saying if you bet $2 each time your total loss would be -$50, but a model will only say -$2.

[dav4463]

Isn't it like the trainer stats in the Daily Racing Form? For example, if you have a rating of 1.43, that would mean you lose 57 cents for every $2 bet.......or if you are a 2.33....you make 33 cents for every $2 bet.

[Buckeye]

Math is a tough subject for SOME of us to comprehend.

[osophy_junkie]

What is generating this model? A model will give you a way of determing a condition, it's up to the application using it to decide how that information is used. It sounds like there is an error some where in the application.

[JackS]

I don't know what your model looks like but Buckeye explained it.(-)$2.00 is just another way of expesssing a 100% loss. If this same factor eventually hit say 1/55, your model would express this as (-)1.95. The factor is negative but the results could be positive if the odds on such a factor were above 55 to 1.

[Speed Figure]

I'm talking about total money bet and total money won. If a factor was 1 for 55 and a 60-1 horse came in, it would be $110 bet with $122 made. The factor would than say a $12 profit was made from betting that one factor. That's all i'm talking about.

[BillW]

Originally posted by Speed Figure
I'm talking about total money bet and total money won. If a factor was 1 for 55 and a 60-1 horse came in, it would be $110 bet with $122 made. The factor would than say a $12 profit was made from betting that one factor. That's all i'm talking about.

Any statistical technique is going to have proper applications as well as improper, Speed. You just found an application for an arithmetic average that doesn't quite give a satisfactory picture of your dataset.

Bill

[JackS]

SF- As I understand the model your using, A theoretical hit rate of 50% (1/1), would bring your model to (-) 1.00 based on a two dollar bet. The model tells you that to make a profit, the $2 base bet must be above $4.00 or above $1 for each dollar bet.

[The_Knight_Sky]

This thread just would not be complete without mention of the Fake Model herself:

http://www.astrotogo.com/images/loggedout_home/060403/pam.jpg

photo:astrotogo.com

[Speed Figure]

Now that's a fake model!:cool:

[andicap]

You ever see her without make-up?

(SHUDDER)


All those fake good looking people -- who need all that makeup to look pretty: Do they wear their make-up to bed?

Just wondering.

[Tom]

I remember the old Jack Benny TV show in the 60's...he said his secret of always looking young was that every season, he had them move the camera 10 feet further back.

[cj]

Originally posted by andicap
You ever see her without make-up?

(SHUDDER)

Just wondering.

Yes, and I wouldn't sleep with her again after that...YIKES! :D:D:D

[Tom]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Yes, and I wouldn't sleep with her again after that...YIKES! :D:D:D

:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[andicap]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Yes, and I wouldn't sleep with her again after that...YIKES! :D:D:D

I know i know. It didn't seem to bother Tommy Lee.

:cool:

[Steve 'StatMan']

Hey, Pam, for what it's worth, I won't let it bother me! :D