Curlin vs Gun Runner

[PhantomOnTour]

Two of Asmussen's best going head to head....and the winner is...??

[jay68802]

Gunrunner at 1-2.

[Rex Phinney]

Are we serious on this one?

Give me Curlin at 1/9

[Si2see]

Curlin without a doubt in my mind. He was magnificent animal :)

I might have posted this here before, but the most electrifying race or even event I can ever remember in my life is the Street Sense Curlin stretch battle at the Preakness. I am not a spiritual person, but I swear Curlin surged only because of the energy created by the crowd, it was an unbelievable feeling one I will never forget in my life.

Jason

[thaskalos]

It depends on the distance. If it's a 4.5-furlong race at Charles Town...then I make Gun Runner the 1/9 choice.

[airford1]

We have sunk to Fantasy Horse racing...............:pout:

[rastajenk]

Well, post-BC is always the silly season. It won't be long before some heat gets generated over Eclipse awards.

[Valuist]

Gun Runner is a very good horse, but he's no Curlin.

[Robert Fischer]

In October I would have emphatically rejected any idea that Gun Runner could compare to Curlin.

(and my results suffered accordingly when I received hundreds less than had others won :pound: )

It's tougher today, so soon after seeing Gun Runner run so well in a top field.

In a 'dream race' Gun Runner may also have some advantage for being forwardly placed.

I'm happy to say both were great horses. Let's not forget Curlin's career. I don't mind doing the whole 'Two of Asmussen's best' thing that honors both.

[classhandicapper]

Curlin reached his peak sooner. So he has a better overall record of figures and accomplishments. But I think the Gun Runner we've seen over the last couple of months is no slouch and he'd get first run on Curlin. I don't think Curlin would be any mortal lock. I think I might take this Gun Runner at even money H2H unless the race was loaded with speed or the track playing against him.

(Gun Runner also looks a little better if you draw a line through his "off track" races).

[Track Phantom]

Curlin reached his peak sooner. So he has a better overall record of figures and accomplishments. But I think the Gun Runner we've seen over the last couple of months is no slouch and he'd get first run on Curlin. I don't think Curlin would be any mortal lock. I think I might take this Gun Runner at even money H2H unless the race was loaded with speed or the track playing against him.

(Gun Runner also looks a little better if you draw a line through his "off track" races).
This is the one thing I heard no one speak about. When Gun Runner faced Arrogate in the Dubai World Cup, the track was muddy. Just like Easy Goer, Gun Runner was not nearly at his best on a wet track.

[Zaf]

Wow what a great question. How do they compare on Speed figures ? TimeForm Beyers, T Graph , Ragozin ?

Z

[cj]

This is the one thing I heard no one speak about. When Gun Runner faced Arrogate in the Dubai World Cup, the track was muddy. Just like Easy Goer, Gun Runner was not nearly at his best on a wet track.

Wasn't the inside pretty darn bad for the DWC too?

[cj]

Wow what a great question. How do they compare on Speed figures ? TimeForm Beyers, T Graph , Ragozin ?

Z

Here is TimeformUS

[Mc990]

Wow what a great question. How do they compare on Speed figures ? TimeForm Beyers, T Graph , Ragozin ?

Z

You can find both of their sheets posted on the TG message board shortly after the Woodward. GR a little faster on his best. Remember though, horses have gotten a tad faster over the last 10 years... despite popular opinion to the contrary...

[exactatom]

Curlin by as much as he wants.

Curlin raced against a great crop of animals his 3 year old year. Gun Runner's competition is average at best.
Curlin was very slow in developing his career. In fact the Derby was only his 3rd or 4th start.
Until last Saturday, Gun Runner never closed the deal at 10 furlongs.
People keep mentioning how great Arrogate was. If you look at his past performances he really only won 4 races in dominating fashion. They just happened to be worth $17 million to him.
Gun Runner is a little small physically. Curlin has much better confirmation.
Both of them gave up leads in big races. Curlin in the Belmont, Gun Runner in the Dubai World Cup.

[Afleet]

Gun Runner is a very good horse, but he's no Curlin.

Could Gun Runner beat Ravens Pass on the poly?

[Zaf]

Here is TimeformUS

Thanks :headbanger:

Z

[Zaf]

You can find both of their sheets posted on the TG message board shortly after the Woodward. GR a little faster on his best. Remember though, horses have gotten a tad faster over the last 10 years... despite popular opinion to the contrary...

Yes its like comparing Sammy Sosa and Mark McGuire to Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. They are all great :)

Z

[dilanesp]

I think Gun Runner is extremely good. Part of the reason I know this is because I know how good Collected is at Del Mar.

[classhandicapper]

Wasn't the inside pretty darn bad for the DWC too?

That was a strange track for sure. A lot more horses made wide moves from well back than I would say are typical of the experience in the US.

The last thing in the world I want to do is knock a horse like Arrogate, but imho, that particular performance, while visually mind boggling, may not have been quite as great as it looked. I believe I tried to make that case right after the race.

1. Gun Runner may have been mildly compromised
2. As tough as that start was for Arrogate, the track probably made it less difficult to overcome than it looked.

Also, horses like Neolithic (and Shaman Ghost in the Pegasus), while nothing to sneeze at, have turned out to not be world beaters.

I have mixed feelings about Arrogate.

His Travers was mind bending. It was one of the best performances I have ever seen by a 3yo.

His win over California Chrome was also huge, but I disagree with the consensus opinion about their relative trips because of how that track was playing, their rides, and the weights. IMO those 2 were very close.

His Pacific Classic was fine. Collected ran big and was undefeated on a fast track until Gun Runner.

His Classic wasn't as bad as people think considering the rough start and spending some time on the bad rail.

I think Arrogate was brilliant for a short period of time, (especially stamina wise), but I think the hype got a little ahead of the actual performances. A horse can be great for awhile or simply great - without being an all time great.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I think Arrogate was brilliant for a short period of time, (especially stamina wise), but I think the hype got a little ahead of the actual performances.

Maybe it's b/c he wasn't 100% sound (quarter cracks reported, at least in the past)?

[castaway01]

Here's a totally gutless take but one I actually believe: if they raced 10 times Curlin would win 6 or 7.

[Inner Dirt]

Gun Runner easily at any distance. Curlin was a great horse but isn't he like 12 years old? He would be lucky to beat $10k claimers at that age.

[Robert Fischer]

Gun Runner easily at any distance. Curlin was a great horse but isn't he like 12 years old? He would be lucky to beat $10k claimers at that age.

ugh You got me!

It's also the same with today's athletes.

As dominant a player as Shaq was, he would be lucky to average 10 points a game in today's NBA...
























.







Still not bad for 45.

[bisket]

I just think the trip to Dubia did Arrogate in. It's not the first time this has happened.... He had three tops in a row than that trip, and another top... It was a lot to ask.

[Secondbest]

I just think the trip to Dubia did Arrogate in. It's not the first time this has happened.... He had three tops in a row than that trip, and another top... It was a lot to ask.

I agree

[dilanesp]

I agree

Thirded. I know not everyone bounces off of Dubai, but enough horses have done it (or have declined sometime after a trip to Dubai) that I think it should be taken seriously as a real phenomenon.

It's just a lot different than shipping, say, from New York to California. The time zone change is enough to interfere with a horse's circadian rhythms. That's a lot of time up in an airplane with thin air and a confined stall. The sand consistency is different. And the race itself is really hard- it draws a great field.

[Valuist]

This is the one thing I heard no one speak about. When Gun Runner faced Arrogate in the Dubai World Cup, the track was muddy. Just like Easy Goer, Gun Runner was not nearly at his best on a wet track.

But if one is talking about the overall quality of a horse, ability to adapt is part of it. I think Curlin also won on grass, and I believe was placed in a Grade 1 or 2 on Belmont turf.

[Valuist]

Could Gun Runner beat Ravens Pass on the poly?

I don't know. We know Gun Runner wasn't at his best in slop. Could Gun Runner have been Graded stakes placed on grass like Curlin? Poly is the least relevant surface of all.

[thaskalos]

But if one is talking about the overall quality of a horse, ability to adapt is part of it. I think Curlin also won on grass, and I believe was placed in a Grade 1 or 2 on Belmont turf.

On the dirt, I would take Gun Runner...and on the turf I would choose Curlin. There is no need to ask these horses to "adapt" in order to prove their "quality", IMO. Our game is highly situational...and the race-conditions figure prominently in the handicapping process.

[Valuist]

On the dirt, I would take Gun Runner...and on the turf I would choose Curlin. There is no need to ask these horses to "adapt" in order to prove their "quality", IMO. Our game is highly situational...and the race-conditions figure prominently in the handicapping process.

It IS highly situational, and that further proves my point. You would only take Gun Runner on a dry dirt track (and that's highly debatable, IMO).

[thaskalos]

It IS highly situational, and that further proves my point. You would only take Gun Runner on a dry dirt track (and that's highly debatable, IMO).

I dare say that, in the vast majority of the cases...these 2 horses would find themselves on dry dirt tracks. And, whether debatable or not...I think that Gun Runner is the better "dry dirt" horse.

[Rex Phinney]

Curlin won 6 times at distances more than 9 furlongs. Starting with the Derby, he ran 10 of 13 races at greater than 8 furlongs.

Over his final 14 months of racing he won every time he ran on dirt.

He won the JCGC and BCC at 3 (after running in all 3 TC races). Gun Runner ran in the Penn Derby and BC Mile, and won neither

Curlin won more G1 races than Gun Runner.

Curlin is the better horse, his dirt resume is better even though he spent countless races running in spots that only Jess Jackson would've put him. Curlin ran over grass, synthetic, he won races on 2 different continents. If he had stuck to his bread and butter he could won another 5 G1 events.

The only reason Gun Runner won anything at 10 panels is because Arrogate lost a step (or he hates Del Mar, take your pick on the reasoning)

The first 3 times that Gun Runner won a G1 event, Breaking Lucky was on the board. Let's just stop the "Gun Runner Legend" right there.

[cj]

Curlin won 6 times at distances more than 9 furlongs. Starting with the Derby, he ran 10 of 13 races at greater than 8 furlongs.

Over his final 14 months of racing he won every time he ran on dirt.

He won the JCGC and BCC at 3 (after running in all 3 TC races). Gun Runner ran in the Penn Derby and BC Mile, and won neither

Curlin won more G1 races than Gun Runner.

Curlin is the better horse, his dirt resume is better even though he spent countless races running in spots that only Jess Jackson would've put him. Curlin ran over grass, synthetic, he won races on 2 different continents. If he had stuck to his bread and butter he could won another 5 G1 events.

The only reason Gun Runner won anything at 10 panels is because Arrogate lost a step (or he hates Del Mar, take your pick on the reasoning)

The first 3 times that Gun Runner won a G1 event, Breaking Lucky was on the board. Let's just stop the "Gun Runner Legend" right there.

Lets not get carried away talking about competition. These are the horses that ran 2-3 in Curlin's wins as a 4yo:

Familiar Territory and Jet Express (Dubai Prep)
Asiatic Boy and Well Armed (Dubai WC)
Einstein and Barcola (Foster)
Past the Point and Wanderin Boy (Woodward)
Wanderin Boy and Merchant Marine (JCGC)

It isn't like Curlin was trouncing a bunch of future Hall of Famer horses as a four year old.

Side note: Curlin never won on turf as some thought here. He ran second in his lone try to Red Rocks.

[Rex Phinney]

Lets not get carried away talking about competition. These are the horses that ran 2-3 in Curlin's wins as a 4yo:

Familiar Territory and Jet Express (Dubai Prep)
Asiatic Boy and Well Armed (Dubai WC)
Einstein and Barcola (Foster)
Past the Point and Wanderin Boy (Woodward)
Wanderin Boy and Merchant Marine (JCGC)

It isn't like Curlin was trouncing a bunch of future Hall of Famer horses as a four year old.

Side note: Curlin never won on turf as some thought here. He ran second in his lone try to Red Rocks.

The difference is as a 3YO Curlin raced against the likes of Street Sense, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday even Rags to Riches.

When running in Dubai a horse is battling the surroundings as much as the other horses, traveling halfway around a planet and winning big time races is not easy, nor is coming back and keeping form. He did both.

How mayn horses have won the JCGC and BCC at 3? (I seriously don't know, seems like probably not many)

[cj]

The difference is as a 3YO Curlin raced against the likes of Street Sense, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday even Rags to Riches.

When running in Dubai a horse is battling the surroundings as much as the other horses, traveling halfway around a planet and winning big time races is not easy, nor is coming back and keeping form. He did both. I'd even argue Curlin wasn't quite the same when he came back. Speed figures certainly seem to indicate he wasn't.

How mayn horses have won the JCGC and BCC at 3? (I seriously don't know, seems like probably not many)

Plenty 3yos have won both individually, though obviously many BC Classic 3yo winners didn't run in the JCGC before. Seems more an oddity than an accomplishment.

As for Dubai, Gun Runner did basically the same thing, the only difference is he ran into Arrogate and a track that probably wasn't the best for his style that day. He came back in better form than ever and has held it ever since.

Both are obviously really good horses. I just don't understand people's insistence on downgrading recent horses when comparing them to those of the past. There is probably a name for it but I've never looked. Like the Joe Montana, or even Johnny Unitas, was a better QB to Tom Brady and it isn't close argument. Seems silly to me, and I consider myself an older guy now at 50.

[dilanesp]

Plenty 3yos have won both individually, though obviously many BC Classic 3yo winners didn't run in the JCGC before. Seems more an oddity than an accomplishment.

This is the sort of thing I mean when I say that some NY fans have never really accepted what the BC did to their races.

The JCGC WAS an extremely important race pre-BC. Now, it really isn't- it's a prep, not really much different from the Awesome Again. In fact, recent JCGC's have been weaker than the Awesome Again because trainers don't want to prep at 10 furlongs

So at this point winning the JCGC isn't anything to fawn over, unless the xield comes up particularly strong.

(Dubai has done the same thing to the Santa Anita Handicap. The only one in recent years that meant anything was the one that drew Game On Dude, Will Take Charge, and Mucho Macho Man.)

[Rex Phinney]

Plenty 3yos have won both individually, though obviously many BC Classic 3yo winners didn't run in the JCGC before. Seems more an oddity than an accomplishment.

As for Dubai, Gun Runner did basically the same thing, the only difference is he ran into Arrogate and a track that probably wasn't the best for his style that day. He came back in better form than ever and has held it ever since.

Both are obviously really good horses. I just don't understand people's insistence on downgrading recent horses when comparing them to those of the past. There is probably a name for it but I've never looked. Like the Joe Montana, or even Johnny Unitas, was a better QB to Tom Brady and it isn't close argument. Seems silly to me, and I consider myself an older guy now at 50.

Gun Runner is a good horse and I'm not downgrading him because of any kind of "good ole days" dismissal.

Their 4YO seasons could be considered similar (seeing as Curlin won in Dubai, and Gun Runner won the BCC, call those equal accomplishments.)

The 3YO seasons though, they just aren't even in the same galaxy. Couple that with all the times Curlin competed, and won, at longer races and IMO it just isn't a worth while comparison.

[cj]

Gun Runner is a good horse and I'm not downgrading him because of any kind of "good ole days" dismissal.

Their 4YO seasons could be considered similar (seeing as Curlin won in Dubai, and Gun Runner won the BCC, call those equal accomplishments.)

The 3YO seasons though, they just aren't even in the same galaxy. Couple that with all the times Curlin competed, and won, at longer races and IMO it just isn't a worth while comparison.

No doubt Curlin was the better race horse at 3, but I don't think he ever reached the same level Gun Runner is at right now at 4. That is all I was trying to say. In a race at 4, I'd take Gun Runner.

I didn't mean you were using the "good old days" dismissal, sorry about that. It was just something I've seen in the thread in general.

[bisket]

A huge difference between Curlin and Gun Runner. Steroids were legal during Curlin's career...

[bisket]

If Gun Runner is to become comparable to Curlin, I'd like to see him win a few more times at the classic distance. It's really bothersome to me that all these classic races in New York are now 1 1/8 mile. The difference between a great horse and cheap speed is carrying that speed at the classic distance. Great horses have stamina, and 1 1/8 mile distance is classified as a miler stamina wise. That was a great race by Gun Runner, but historically his accomplishments are suspect only because the racing secretaries in New York have compromised him.

[cj]

If Gun Runner is to become comparable to Curlin, I'd like to see him win a few more times at the classic distance. It's really bothersome to me that all these classic races in New York are now 1 1/8 mile. The difference between a great horse and cheap speed is carrying that speed at the classic distance. Great horses have stamina, and 1 1/8 mile distance is classified as a miler stamina wise. That was a great race by Gun Runner, but historically his accomplishments are suspect only because the racing secretaries in New York have compromised him.

There are only a couple chances these days to win at the classic distance. Kind of hard to hold it against the horse in my opinion. Gun Runner clearly showed it isn't any issue for him at this point in his career.

[classhandicapper]

If Gun Runner is to become comparable to Curlin, I'd like to see him win a few more times at the classic distance. It's really bothersome to me that all these classic races in New York are now 1 1/8 mile. The difference between a great horse and cheap speed is carrying that speed at the classic distance. Great horses have stamina, and 1 1/8 mile distance is classified as a miler stamina wise. That was a great race by Gun Runner, but historically his accomplishments are suspect only because the racing secretaries in New York have compromised him.

I agree with what you are saying. I think 10F being is a better test of the kind of speed and stamina we should look for in champions. However, off that last race I don't think there's much doubt he's very effective at 10F at this stage in his career. It's not that unusual for horses that may have found 10F less than ideal early in their 3yo career to be able to handle it later as they get bigger and stronger.

If you look at a lot of 2yo races, plenty of races/horses collapse at 7F or 1 1/16th but some of the horses eventually stretch well.

[Robert Fischer]

Would Asmussen enter a rabbit to use up Gun Runner?

[cj]

Would Asmussen enter a rabbit to use up Gun Runner?

To burn out his own horse?