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linrom1
11-05-2017, 10:02 PM
All I can say is that I am going to throw out all BC winners on dirt and turf with the exception of Gun Runner and Roy H.

The results are completely irrelevant and offer little in predictive value for races to be run at REAL race tracks.

Del Mar is bidding to BC again in the future, good grief, I 'd rather they give it to GW.

dansan
11-05-2017, 10:54 PM
sounds like somebody had a bad day:lol:

linrom1
11-06-2017, 05:21 AM
sounds like somebody had a bad day:lol:

That dirt surface was a total joke. Some trainers refuse to even train their horses over it?

Losing $30 on a P4 because Bolt d'Oro was hung wide to Chad Brown's horse is indeed a BAD day, I agree.

But seeing so many horses struggle in that quicksand on the inside was an unwatchable horror story. Look Bar of Gold, a NY slop queen won a BC race. She can't beat allowance horses in NY?

Mc990
11-06-2017, 07:17 AM
sounds like somebody had a bad day:lol:

Exactly.... all races, including dirt seemed formful to me. Which winners were surprising? None of the winners even had to improve to win... just needed to pair up their best to date. Heck, Bar of Gold had the fastest TG figure coming in... albeit an isolated top. She was far from impossible.

I think the biggest problem is a lot of "fans" got caught up in some overhyped horses. The way some of these favorites were bet was ridiculous... made for some real nice overlays.

Lastly, more often than not this is what you'll get when you have cleanly run races. CD and others, please take notice! It's absolutely no coincidence that Baffert got shut out... even his horses that ran well this weekend were those who didn't run huge "out of town" figures this year.

sour grapes
11-06-2017, 09:49 AM
That dirt surface was a total joke. Some trainers refuse to even train their horses over it?

Losing $30 on a P4 because Bolt d'Oro was hung wide to Chad Brown's horse is indeed a BAD day, I agree.

But seeing so many horses struggle in that quicksand on the inside was an unwatchable horror story. Look Bar of Gold, a NY slop queen won a BC race. She can't beat allowance horses in NY?

it looks like bar of gold training over a deep track like belmont benefited,not saying i had her but if you thought the speed would quit a case could be made for her to pick up the pieces,she was a quality filly sprinter with a million bucks already in the bank.

tophatmert
11-06-2017, 10:26 AM
That dirt surface was a total joke. Some trainers refuse to even train their horses over it?

Losing $30 on a P4 because Bolt d'Oro was hung wide to Chad Brown's horse is indeed a BAD day, I agree.

But seeing so many horses struggle in that quicksand on the inside was an unwatchable horror story. Look Bar of Gold, a NY slop queen won a BC race. She can't beat allowance horses in NY?

Bar Of Gold was in that quicksand most of the race . third place horse also on rail. Not sure right now but wasn't winner of Bolt d'oro race on rail also and wasn't BDO on the good part of the track. Take your loss and move on

The Coomster
11-06-2017, 10:45 AM
How many times have we seen a host track appear fair the day before a stakes showcase day, and then watch a rail bias magically appear on the big day? Tiring speed stays and the track becomes a two path traffic jam. Just when the crowd begins to over bet the inside speed, a race goes the first quarter in sub 21 and some Arcangues type horse blows up the tote and everyones faith in order and logic for that racing day.
The favorable outside racing strip at Del Mar could be anticipated. Speed could be downgraded, but not thrown out. The big chalks bringing their big figs off of inside drag strip tracks coughed up fur balls...And all was right in the world of racing..Mmmmm!

elhelmete
11-06-2017, 11:41 AM
California speed, especially cheap-ish, has been on semi-vacation for a while recently, anyone who follows CA racing has seen it and commented on it. DMR, SA and LRC.

Tom
11-06-2017, 11:58 AM
I was very surprised that the track was as fair as it was.
In fact, I continued to play Del Mar yesterday.
Now, talking about stupid training techniques and dumb rides, yes, the BC had a good share of those.

dansan
11-06-2017, 12:15 PM
I rather see all longshots win than chalk all day now thats no fun I had the best day of since going to play breeder cup

burnsy
11-06-2017, 12:55 PM
Exactly.... all races, including dirt seemed formful to me. Which winners were surprising? None of the winners even had to improve to win... just needed to pair up their best to date. Heck, Bar of Gold had the fastest TG figure coming in... albeit an isolated top. She was far from impossible.

I think the biggest problem is a lot of "fans" got caught up in some overhyped horses. The way some of these favorites were bet was ridiculous... made for some real nice overlays.

Lastly, more often than not this is what you'll get when you have cleanly run races. CD and others, please take notice! It's absolutely no coincidence that Baffert got shut out... even his horses that ran well this weekend were those who didn't run huge "out of town" figures this year.


Right on, accurate and to the point. Especially your opinion about the betting. These fields are loaded with talent, the bombs are good enough to win with the right circumstances.

There were so many over bet horses. Where do I start? I'll start on Friday when Elate was shorter than Forever Unbridled. It didn't take a genius to read the PP's and see that class and experience wise the winner towered over most of that field.........especially the 3 yo's. Abel Tasmen was even higher priced and she had beaten Elate. 46.80 bucks for that exacta was a great start for me. Seeing that I only bet two races that day.

Then Saturday Lady Aurelia 3 to freaking 5 in a turf sprint and a course change. Give me a break......its a turf sprint. The winner Stormy Liberal, I did not have but the horses best races were on the west coast.

The race the OP is crying about. Unique Bella 1-1.....lol. This horse had 1 race since March and shes 3 years old vs. seasoned hard knockers in a 7 furlonger where you should know she would be gasping late on a fair track. Didn't have the winner but a couple of mine were in the picture. Was extremely wary of the falsey at 1-1.


Lady Eli, yes, its a great, feel good story but look at Euro's and who they face. I bet Rhododendran and got beat by a horse she had just beaten.

Defong, I liked, but I loved Roy H off his campaign and singled him. That was easy.


The best fave of the day was World Approval and of course I got a sweet double out of that. Gave him out as a best bet during the week.

The Juvenile, 2 yo draws the outside in a loaded field......lost the race but 3/5, again, is a joke on a horse like that.

Highland Reel, at least I can understand the logic with this one. I went belly up on Beach Patrol who ran a good race.

Last but not least was Arrogate, what races were people watching this summer. I used him but weighed in heavily on Gun Runner....that exacta with Collected was a gift. Who has the best current form? It was not Arrogate.

It was hard, not saying it wasn't. But as a horseplayer there were some really good opportunities to beat the general public in this years BC. If you bet like Captain Obvious and listen to the talking heads about chalk......don't bet the BC races. There is like 34 years of that not working.

CincyHorseplayer
11-06-2017, 02:08 PM
I had a mediocre BC. But I can handle my mediocrity! I think there was something at play here though. There were some mediocre horses winning many of these races. In my last over 1,000 races my top contenders represent 20% of the entries and win 56% of the races. With marginal contenders 87%. Chaos factor at 13%.This weekend it was 37%. With marginal contenders 74%. Chaos factor at 26%. I had the 2 classic winners and the juvenile turf sprint. I couldn't bet many of the $6-8 winners other than Gun Runner. Was totally lost on most of the rest. Last year went 5 for 8 on multi race wagers. This year 0-7. I know it isn't just bad capping and a bad day at the races! There was a hole in these races but I don't quite know what it was. Looking forward to it not being here next year. definitely sore loserly disappointed!:cool:

Gerard02
11-06-2017, 02:21 PM
As always, I used Steve Caris’ Breeders Cup selections from American Turf Monthly. I popped Stormy Liberal in the 5Th plus a couple of exactas, but the real meat and potatoes came in Race 7. I caught the super and exacta with the win bet #5 for over $1000. Mr. Caris recommended exactas, but from his past, I was determined to roll with Superfectas. I too $600 into the two days and walked out with some nice change. Finally! I won big at the Breeders Cup by playing the way I should have. Even with the Caris list, I was always playing timid. Not this time and it paid off. I would suggest buying his list next year. It comes with a book on how to handicap the fields, but I pay for his list because I never seem to have enough time to do all of the work. So, Mr. Caris, if you’re reading this, thanks! Dinner is on me!:headbanger :D

burnsy
11-06-2017, 03:11 PM
I had a mediocre BC. But I can handle my mediocrity! I think there was something at play here though. There were some mediocre horses winning many of these races. In my last over 1,000 races my top contenders represent 20% of the entries and win 56% of the races. With marginal contenders 87%. Chaos factor at 13%.This weekend it was 37%. With marginal contenders 74%. Chaos factor at 26%. I had the 2 classic winners and the juvenile turf sprint. I couldn't bet many of the $6-8 winners other than Gun Runner. Was totally lost on most of the rest. Last year went 5 for 8 on multi race wagers. This year 0-7. I know it isn't just bad capping and a bad day at the races! There was a hole in these races but I don't quite know what it was. Looking forward to it not being here next year. definitely sore loserly disappointed!:cool:

I disagree with exception of the horse he is bitching about. Bar of Gold was hard to take and maybe the Maiden but Chad loves that horse.

As for the rest I can make a case for all the others even though I didn't have a portion of them. In the 2 days I bet 10 races and posted it all somewhere on here. I hit 4 of them. Of the 6 I missed, those two I mentioned were really the only ones that were really out of line. But even though the juvenile winner wasn't a real shot in the dark off his Champagne run and its Chad Brown.

Stormy Liberal, Wuheida, Talisimatic and Battle of Midway ( the ones I missed) are not mediocre horses. That's the mistake I think people make. These are all really good horses. The chalk is in extremely deep to win in most of them.

CincyHorseplayer
11-06-2017, 04:17 PM
I disagree with exception of the horse he is bitching about. Bar of Gold was hard to take and maybe the Maiden but Chad loves that horse.

As for the rest I can make a case for all the others even though I didn't have a portion of them. In the 2 days I bet 10 races and posted it all somewhere on here. I hit 4 of them. Of the 6 I missed, those two I mentioned were really the only ones that were really out of line. But even though the juvenile winner wasn't a real shot in the dark off his Champagne run and its Chad Brown.

Stormy Liberal, Wuheida, Talisimatic and Battle of Midway ( the ones I missed) are not mediocre horses. That's the mistake I think people make. These are all really good horses. The chalk is in extremely deep to win in most of them.

You can say whatever you want. Making a case? This is a BC so making a case is easy to do. Making a better case for many others than the case made for the winner in a certain race nullifies this half baked logic. For us to build a game on terra firma there must be a solid amount of predictability. If all year in over 1,000 races my top contenders yield 56% winners then it plummets to 37% for 2 days it's not just because I didn't do my homework. And I had 4 winners and 2 seconds from 11 bets. Really I only made 1 mistake by not getting involved in in race exotics on a 14-1 shot. But all told I felt like I was pot shotting. Races I didn't hit I could honestly say 100 more hours of handicapping I would not have made that case for the winner. Logical? Maybe. Likely? Not really IMO. My batting line for the cup looks good but my bottom line was weak.

linrom1
11-06-2017, 04:41 PM
It looks like Narcissists are all in force -winning all losing has nothing to do with the terrible racing conditions at Del Mar: both on dirt and turf.

The dirt surface had a dead rail and given large fields in those races, horses on rail were stuck while there was a conveyor belt on the outside. If the BC was held at Santa Anita, Belmont, CD, Kee or GP none of the BC winners other than GR and Roy H would be even close to the finish line.

If you are curious what experts are saying about Del Mar racing conditions just listen to Miller who won 2 BC races or Jay Privman from DRF on Steve Byk show. Mick Ruis, the owner of Bolt d'Oro notes that before the 10th race on 11/4, he noticed that dirt was being moved from the inside to the outside, further putting his horse at a disadvantage -why so late?

The turf course configuration makes Del Mar unsuitable to hold BC turf events. I defer to one of the world's best turf riders who summed up riding conditions as not wanting to be inside lanes 1-6. In races made up of 14 starters, if a horse has no early speed to get up to the front, the race becomes a joke. Just take a look at Happily's trip.

At least this travesty of BC has ended, and hopefully we won't be subject to this farcical spectacle at Del Mar in the future.

Mc990
11-06-2017, 05:05 PM
Using the thorograph weight adjusted tops, here are the rankings going in for each dirt winner within their respective race.... 3,3,2,1,4,3,1 (gun runner and bar of gold being the 2 who had the fastest top).... Hardly shocking results.

On the turf, World Approval, Rushing Fall and Mendelssohn all had the fastest top going in. Talismanic and Stormy Liberal saved ground and certainly figured on their best effort.

bisket
11-06-2017, 06:13 PM
There just isn't a solid amount of predictability when horses come together from all over the country and world. It's a different ball game then handicapping runners that race each other frequently. Especially when the track plays fair. When there's a bias that's when you get some predictability. When you don't have a bias to eliminate half the field the variables are numerous. You have to trust your handicapping and not look at odds until racetime. Tune others out, and after you form an opinion talk about it. Gulfstream in January offers this kind of wagering because you get the best barns from Kentucky, New York, and the Mid Atlantic. I love to wager on those fields in January. Usually by the middle of February the speed handicappers catch up to me.

Exotic1
11-06-2017, 06:39 PM
Using the thorograph weight adjusted tops, here are the rankings going in for each dirt winner within their respective race.... 3,3,2,1,4,3,1 (gun runner and bar of gold being the 2 who had the fastest top).... Hardly shocking results.....

Bar of Gold's 10/22/16 speed fig, earned on wet track, was fastest horse coming in per every reporting service that I've seen. TFUS, HDW, TG, Ragozin and others. Key was to bet her on 10th race of cycle, coinciding with East>>>West ship. That part was easy. Gun Runner was hard to have.

CincyHorseplayer
11-06-2017, 09:32 PM
There just isn't a solid amount of predictability when horses come together from all over the country and world. It's a different ball game then handicapping runners that race each other frequently. Especially when the track plays fair. When there's a bias that's when you get some predictability. When you don't have a bias to eliminate half the field the variables are numerous. You have to trust your handicapping and not look at odds until racetime. Tune others out, and after you form an opinion talk about it. Gulfstream in January offers this kind of wagering because you get the best barns from Kentucky, New York, and the Mid Atlantic. I love to wager on those fields in January. Usually by the middle of February the speed handicappers catch up to me.

Competitive racing shouldn't translate to less predictability. I see competitive racing all the time and can cut through it. The event itself doesn't blow me away from a predictability standpoint. Who wins vs who you want to bet on many of these races was a stark contrast. I already admitted a good bet line but not bottom line. Some had lifetime days and I love seeing my pals tear it up! But I think there were biases at stake that did mess the races up. That happened so not sure what you were talking about. I won a few bucks but am angry I didn't annihilate this weekend! Sour grapes? Sure. The event is easily within my wheel house. I think the track itself was not. I will be glad to not see it here again.

bisket
11-06-2017, 09:50 PM
You're not going to hit a high percentage in races like this. You're going to take your lumps and hit a big one. There is a bias to Del Mar. The track is more circular in shape , and it has a short stretch. Some horses are more athletic than others and can pass horses on the turn. That's the horse that has an edge. You can look at the split that involves the final turn in the pp's, but that can be misleading. The best way to do it is look at replays. Look for horse that cut the corner, or just accelerate past runners on the turn. It works at Monmouth too. Similar track.

dansan
11-06-2017, 09:55 PM
Same complaints every year

LemonSoupKid
11-07-2017, 12:27 PM
Same complaints every year

Not quite, as I said on another thread, 5 year old kids cashing $60 and $135 winners happens occasionally at BC, but not often. I think it was related to this track, settings, and surface personally.

LemonSoupKid
11-07-2017, 12:29 PM
It looks like Narcissists are all in force -winning all losing has nothing to do with the terrible racing conditions at Del Mar: both on dirt and turf.

The dirt surface had a dead rail and given large fields in those races, horses on rail were stuck while there was a conveyor belt on the outside. If the BC was held at Santa Anita, Belmont, CD, Kee or GP none of the BC winners other than GR and Roy H would be even close to the finish line.

If you are curious what experts are saying about Del Mar racing conditions just listen to Miller who won 2 BC races or Jay Privman from DRF on Steve Byk show. Mick Ruis, the owner of Bolt d'Oro notes that before the 10th race on 11/4, he noticed that dirt was being moved from the inside to the outside, further putting his horse at a disadvantage -why so late?

The turf course configuration makes Del Mar unsuitable to hold BC turf events. I defer to one of the world's best turf riders who summed up riding conditions as not wanting to be inside lanes 1-6. In races made up of 14 starters, if a horse has no early speed to get up to the front, the race becomes a joke. Just take a look at Happily's trip.

At least this travesty of BC has ended, and hopefully we won't be subject to this farcical spectacle at Del Mar in the future.

Distilling your post, was the idea that if you were a closer (Sadler's Joy for example, who actually finished 4th) the rail ground save the whole way actually worked against you if you could even get open late to make a final run? Just wondering.

cj
11-07-2017, 12:52 PM
Not quite, as I said on another thread, 5 year old kids cashing $60 and $135 winners happens occasionally at BC, but not often. I think it was related to this track, settings, and surface personally.

Really? I haven't tracked it recently, but for a long time just betting every horse at the BC that was 20-1 or over was a winning strategy. Big prices at the BC are nothing new.

LemonSoupKid
11-07-2017, 02:01 PM
Really? I haven't tracked it recently, but for a long time just betting every horse at the BC that was 20-1 or over was a winning strategy. Big prices at the BC are nothing new.

Here's some recent data:

Saturday 2016: Two 8-1, 16-1, and Champagne Room Juvenile Fillies 33-1.
11-1 was the highest Friday 2016 price.

2015: Saturday 15-1 and 10-1 highest prices, Friday everyone was 6 through 8-1, with one 1/2 winner.

2014: Karakontie 30-1 in the mile, Work all Week 18-1 in the Sprint ... Friday's highest price was 6-1.

2013: Friday highest price 9-1; Saturday highest price Magician in the Turf, 13-1 ... Ria Antonia Juvenile Fillies 32-1.


Looks to me like Juvenile Fillies is the spot. Wasn't Spain in that one in 2000? Caledonia Road 13-1 this year. The filly and mare Spring and the Turf Sprint produced Bar of Gold and Stormy liberal at 60 and 30 this year, seems the sprint's really exaggerated the rail problems.

LemonSoupKid
11-07-2017, 02:04 PM
^ Haha, Spain was the Distaff. :cool:

Mc990
11-07-2017, 03:04 PM
I'd be careful making judgements from extremely small sample sizes...

As I brought up earlier, a big reason why you saw such relatively high prices is because some BAD favorites were way overbet...

Would the complainers feel better about the results if horses like Elate, mor spirit, moonshine memories, lady Aurelia, unique Bella, drefong, arrogate, bolt d'oro and highland reel took 1/3 of the money that they did? Would the actual winners have looked more likely then?

Robert Fischer
11-07-2017, 03:17 PM
Perhaps the Dirt course slightly favored the outside. However, the nature of world-class pace(Hot) is that closers will tend to flow up on the outside. If there was an outside aided bias, it was very mild. We also saw Gun Runner rebuff the outside flow. He happened to out-class his rival (Collected), and we have no idea about pre-Classic track maintenance, but his victory raised more questions about any supposed outside bias.

I don't see a case for 'tossing' the dirt results.


On the other hand, the Turf course is physically a bit small and tight for full fields of world class turf horses.
There is definitely a good argument for going through the replays and looking for horses with traffic issues in BC Turf course races.

Tom
11-07-2017, 04:01 PM
You could see from some of the overhead shots that some horses had virtually no shot ever getting clear.

classhandicapper
11-07-2017, 05:23 PM
But seeing so many horses struggle in that quicksand on the inside was an unwatchable horror story.

I agree that the inside part of the track compromised a lot of very good horses, especially on Saturday. A lot of paces were hot (as they often are in big fields of high quality horses) and that also contributed to how poorly some of the inside speeds ran, but no way I wanted any of my horses anywhere near the rail.

LemonSoupKid
11-08-2017, 03:08 PM
You could see from some of the overhead shots that some horses had virtually no shot ever getting clear.

What was your conclusion, then, Tom?

JohnGalt1
11-08-2017, 04:01 PM
I bet $471 on Friday and lost $81.50.

I made win bets in 5 races and had 3 winners.

Saturday I bet $1041 and lost $85.30.

I made win bets in 9 races and had 2 winners. One was Wuheida, and I hit the $.50 tri in that race.

In reviewing the races and my bets, I realized the mistakes I made were betting too many horses off lay offs. Even Baffert horses couldn't over come layoffs on his good horses, even those I didn't bet.

In race 6 I made 3 win bets, very rare for me, On :2: Paula'ssilverlining, :4:Finest City, and:14: Ami's Mesa. Morning lines were 8,12, and 20-1. They were all off lay offs. The winner was 30-1 ML :5: Bar of Gold who had a recent race. Though Ami's Mesa lost by a nose.

In race 8 I liked Defrong, but Roy H had a recent race.

If you had a bad day, check to see how many horses you played who didn't have a recent race--even if they looked like the best horse, like I felt in many races. Even many of the foreign shippers had races in October this year.

In many races I disregard or minimize form/condition. The rule I have to keep reminding myself is a recent race is worth many workouts, even Baffert's 5 and 6 furlong bullets.

One thing we can't control as far as handicapping is trips.

I bet Lady Eli and Wuheida to win, and if Lady Eli won or finished second, my payoff would've been reduced. My handicapping was good, but I couldn't predict she'd have her leg lacerated.

I hope writing some of my reviewing process helps some of you as it does me.

Tom
11-08-2017, 05:26 PM
What was your conclusion, then, Tom?

Nothing earth-shattering.
If I ever encounter any horses coming out the BC turf races, I will probably give a pass to a poor race. Will have to watch a replay or check the charts.

biggestal99
11-15-2017, 09:00 AM
Exactly.... all races, including dirt seemed formful to me. Which winners were surprising? None of the winners even had to improve to win... just needed to pair up their best to date. Heck, Bar of Gold had the fastest TG figure coming in... albeit an isolated top. She was far from impossible.

I think the biggest problem is a lot of "fans" got caught up in some overhyped horses. The way some of these favorites were bet was ridiculous... made for some real nice overlays.

Lastly, more often than not this is what you'll get when you have cleanly run races. CD and others, please take notice! It's absolutely no coincidence that Baffert got shut out... even his horses that ran well this weekend were those who didn't run huge "out of town" figures this year.

Went to the sheets seminar on the Thursday before the races.

Bolt d oro was mentioned as an underlaid favorite. The leader of the seminar said he had decent numbers but others were on the improve and were capable of running as fast or faster as him

among the horse mentioned were good magic and solomini who were 11-1 and 9-1 respectively. and what kind of trip did you expect out of the 11 hole, a ground saving trip?

Allan