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View Full Version : Breeders' Cup TimeformUS Pace and Speed Figures


cj
11-05-2017, 04:29 PM
This was the best betting Breeders' Cup I've ever had. The Pace Projector really helped hitting two long prices, including a huge bomber. I also hit the Juvy Turf and crushed the Sprint, which I did numerous media spots on. I try not to tout our product too much here, but I'm really proud of how it held up on the biggest stage.

These are the figures for all the races attached.

RunForTheRoses
11-05-2017, 05:16 PM
I hear you have all that Mongolian money now lol.

cj
11-05-2017, 05:35 PM
I hear you have all that Mongolian money now lol.

I'd retire tomorrow.

Tom
11-05-2017, 06:47 PM
Thanks! :ThmbUp:

dilanesp
11-06-2017, 02:08 PM
This was the best betting Breeders' Cup I've ever had. The Pace Projector really helped hitting two long prices, including a huge bomber. I also hit the Juvy Turf and crushed the Sprint, which I did numerous media spots on. I try not to tout our product too much here, but I'm really proud of how it held up on the biggest stage.

These are the figures for all the races attached.

How good is Gun Runner's 140 compared to previous BC Classics?

cj
11-06-2017, 02:48 PM
How good is Gun Runner's 140 compared to previous BC Classics?

The best, nosed out Arrogate.

dilanesp
11-06-2017, 04:21 PM
The best, nosed out Arrogate.

Wow. How far do you go back?

PaceAdvantage
11-06-2017, 04:22 PM
The best, nosed out Arrogate.Not surprised in the least, considering I didn't think there was any way Gun Runner was going to win that race given the fractions he was running...that was a monster effort

cj
11-06-2017, 04:44 PM
Wow. How far do you go back?

Our charts go back to 2004, but anything before 2012 is a conversion from the old PaceFigures program. I'll post all the Classic winners tonight or in the AM.

cj
11-07-2017, 03:43 PM
All the BC winners dating back to 2004.

Looking back at it now, I'm pretty happy with it. I think the best horses have the best ratings, and the low rated ones were nothing special historically.

PaceAdvantage
11-08-2017, 12:28 AM
Drosselmeyer won the BC Classic? :lol:

menifee
11-08-2017, 12:35 AM
Looks like you had the Distaff as a stronger race than Beyer -thatís interesting.

I thought Gun Runnerís race was impressive but Gun Runner is not beating Ghostzapper and neither is Collected. Something is not right there.

They would beat Drosselmeyer however. What a bad classic that was.

cj
11-08-2017, 01:45 AM
Looks like you had the Distaff as a stronger race than Beyer -thatís interesting.

I thought Gun Runnerís race was impressive but Gun Runner is not beating Ghostzapper and neither is Collected. Something is not right there.

They would beat Drosselmeyer however. What a bad classic that was.

I'm pretty confident in the Distaff. There were timing issues so I timed it from video. It was also tough to compare the two dirt routes. The Dirt Mile had a 200 foot run up, the Distaff much shorter at 45.

I see no reason Gun Runner couldn't beat Ghostzapper. Could go the other way too. It is impossible to say, the races are 13 years apart. Certainly possible figures could be a few points off over that span.

People are missing how dominant Gun Runner was this year. He wasn't winning, he was crushing horses. His one loss he ran very well and may also have been on much the worse part of the track.

dilanesp
11-08-2017, 01:55 PM
I'm pretty confident in the Distaff. There were timing issues so I timed it from video. It was also tough to compare the two dirt routes. The Dirt Mile had a 200 foot run up, the Distaff much shorter at 45.

I see no reason Gun Runner couldn't beat Ghostzapper. Could go the other way too. It is impossible to say, the races are 13 years apart. Certainly possible figures could be a few points off over that span.

People are missing how dominant Gun Runner was this year. He wasn't winning, he was crushing horses. His one loss he ran very well and may also have been on much the worse part of the track.

Gun Runner ran super this year. He was close to Arrogate when Arrogate was at the top of his game, and then got better. And the track was SLOW on Saturday- I was thinking about a 15 to 20 variant or so- so GR's time was excellent.

I think cj is right on the money.

menifee
11-08-2017, 03:17 PM
Gun Runner ran super this year. He was close to Arrogate when Arrogate was at the top of his game, and then got better. And the track was SLOW on Saturday- I was thinking about a 15 to 20 variant or so- so GR's time was excellent.

I think cj is right on the money.

He did run well. It's funny I really was on him in a number of races last year including the Derby, Travers, etc. He ran well into those races, but obviously did not win. I jumped off. I guess his BC Dirt Mile last year was the indication that he might progress forward into his 4 yo year and be really good.

I guess you never know when they might get good or go bad.

dilanesp
11-08-2017, 03:34 PM
He did run well. It's funny I really was on him in a number of races last year including the Derby, Travers, etc. He ran well into those races, but obviously did not win. I jumped off. I guess his BC Dirt Mile last year was the indication that he might progress forward into his 4 yo year and be really good.

I guess you never know when they might get good or go bad.

You never do. Look at Cigar's career before the streak. Or Lava Man's or John Henry's before they got good. Or Alysheba's when he was futzing around as a 2 and early 3 year old before his surgery.

Sometimes a trainer finds the problem and corrects it. Or sometimes the horse just matures and fills out.

The opposite happens too, of course. Songbird kind of flattened out. And, ahem, Arrogate. :)

GMB@BP
11-08-2017, 07:57 PM
Gun Runner ran super this year. He was close to Arrogate when Arrogate was at the top of his game, and then got better. And the track was SLOW on Saturday- I was thinking about a 15 to 20 variant or so- so GR's time was excellent.

I think cj is right on the money.

The only race that they faced each other were Arrogate did not have major trouble or was not the same horse was the Travers....he beat him by like 20.

dilanesp
11-08-2017, 08:59 PM
The only race that they faced each other were Arrogate did not have major trouble or was not the same horse was the Travers....he beat him by like 20.

Gun Runner obviously got better between then and Dubai.

GMB@BP
11-08-2017, 11:20 PM
Gun Runner obviously got better between then and Dubai.

In Dubai he was hopelessly last and still ran by a horse getting a sweet perfect trip.

cj
11-08-2017, 11:36 PM
In Dubai he was hopelessly last and still ran by a horse getting a sweet perfect trip.

You should probably rewatch the Dubai dirt races that day again.

LemonSoupKid
11-10-2017, 10:08 AM
You never do. Look at Cigar's career before the streak.

Speaking of Cigar and why I knew we were walking into a Lion's Den betting wise at Del Mar, I always talk about his shot at the record for 17 straight. Dare and Go with Solis.

With all I've seen, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised that the track weighed heavily in that loss.

dilanesp
11-10-2017, 01:25 PM
Speaking of Cigar and why I knew we were walking into a Lion's Den betting wise at Del Mar, I always talk about his shot at the record for 17 straight. Dare and Go with Solis.

With all I've seen, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised that the track weighed heavily in that loss.

I get what you are saying, though I think what really killed Cigar in 1996 was the three horse speed duel and a bad ride by Bailey. I suspect if you ran that same race at Aqueduct you probably get the same result.

Lemon Drop Husker
11-10-2017, 01:30 PM
My simplistic methods maybe hit a few more.

Heck. I even a posted few. :cool:

Very well done CJ. I subscribe to your service, so don't kick me off your mailing list. :ThmbUp:

Denny
11-10-2017, 02:08 PM
CJ,
I'm a new visitor here at Pace Advantage and have a question that maybe you've already gotten from someone else.

How closely do the TimeformUS figures compare to the European TF figures for Turf races? Are the Euro figures more class related since pace doesn't seem to be much of a consideration for them?

Thanks

cj
11-10-2017, 04:29 PM
CJ,
I'm a new visitor here at Pace Advantage and have a question that maybe you've already gotten from someone else.

How closely do the TimeformUS figures compare to the European TF figures for Turf races? Are the Euro figures more class related since pace doesn't seem to be much of a consideration for them?

Thanks

We try to keep them on the same scale. This is a constant work in progress. Timeform ratings are not speed figures (or pace), but speed does play a part in them. I'm generally pretty happy with the comparisons outside of sprint distances. I thought the Lady Aurelia and other shippers in the Turf Sprint were too high. I'm looking into it.

I noticed this once before when Undrafted shipped to England and won and got a rating much higher than he runs here. But when it comes to turf sprinters, there just isn't much to go in. The Euro sprinters just aren't all that good IMO and there aren't enough high class turf sprints here to entice sprinters to come.

classhandicapper
11-10-2017, 04:31 PM
All the BC winners dating back to 2004.

Looking back at it now, I'm pretty happy with it. I think the best horses have the best ratings, and the low rated ones were nothing special historically.

Those look great in hindsight.

dilanesp
11-10-2017, 05:05 PM
We try to keep them on the same scale. This is a constant work in progress. Timeform ratings are not speed figures (or pace), but speed does play a part in them. I'm generally pretty happy with the comparisons outside of sprint distances. I thought the Lady Aurelia and other shippers in the Turf Sprint were too high. I'm looking into it.

I noticed this once before when Undrafted shipped to England and won and got a rating much higher than he runs here. But when it comes to turf sprinters, there just isn't much to go in. The Euro sprinters just aren't all that good IMO and there aren't enough high class turf sprints here to entice sprinters to come.

Is it possible curve vs. straightaway mucks it up too?

cj
11-10-2017, 05:11 PM
Is it possible curve vs. straightaway mucks it up too?

The racing is so different I think it is a lot of things, including the straight versus the turn. Lasix versus no Lasix, firm courses versus not so firm courses, right handed versus left handed, high weight versus much lower weights, etc.

LemonSoupKid
11-11-2017, 10:58 AM
We try to keep them on the same scale. This is a constant work in progress. Timeform ratings are not speed figures (or pace), but speed does play a part in them. I'm generally pretty happy with the comparisons outside of sprint distances. I thought the Lady Aurelia and other shippers in the Turf Sprint were too high. I'm looking into it.

I noticed this once before when Undrafted shipped to England and won and got a rating much higher than he runs here. But when it comes to turf sprinters, there just isn't much to go in. The Euro sprinters just aren't all that good IMO and there aren't enough high class turf sprints here to entice sprinters to come.

I wish I could have read this post pre-BC. CJ, I'm very interested in how those numbers fit too, just to get a ballpark of handicapping the shippers. I saw a lot of 117 to 120s for the more highly rated, but then you'd get a string of interesting PPs on 4-5 horses in a row sometimes first time Lasix, which I think O'Brien (for example) has used as a relatively big edge. Lasix is known to be performance enhancing, so it can't be denied as a handicapping tool. What's your take on the issues some shippers have who have those 130 TF ratings from the EU that don't do well? Mostly the track? What tips would you give handicappers in assessing them?

Thanks

classhandicapper
11-11-2017, 02:41 PM
I'm generally pretty happy with the comparisons outside of sprint distances.

The Euro sprinters just aren't all that good IMO and there aren't enough high class turf sprints here to entice sprinters to come.

I'm struggling with the same thing in my own ratings.

I don't think our own turf sprinters are very good (relative to our routers), but it seems as though the Euro turf sprinters could be worse.

cj
11-11-2017, 02:54 PM
I'm struggling with the same thing in my own ratings.

I don't think our own turf sprinters are very good (relative to our routers), but it seems as though the Euro turf sprinters could be worse.

There is no real incentive for our good horses to be turf sprinters. There are only one G1 and maybe for G2s all year long.

zawaaa
11-11-2017, 03:16 PM
well i don't think there's any doubt that the american horses have an advantage at short distances, in general

Tom
11-11-2017, 04:07 PM
Turf sprints are pretty much card fillers.
They are like Denny's - no one seeks to run in them, you just end up there when you can't run anywhere else.

zawaaa
11-11-2017, 05:24 PM
Tom,

don't be like that, it's not the pinnacle of racing but everyone should have a lot of respect for all those hard-knocking sprinters out there!

classhandicapper
11-14-2017, 05:56 PM
There is no real incentive for our good horses to be turf sprinters. There are only one G1 and maybe for G2s all year long.

I get that. But why are they so bad in Europe?

well i don't think there's any doubt that the american horses have an advantage at short distances, in general

I guess it's this.

cj
11-14-2017, 10:48 PM
I get that. But why are they so bad in Europe?



I guess it's this.

It isn't just US horses. Australia and Hong Kong are certainly better at sprinting as well.

CincyHorseplayer
11-14-2017, 11:53 PM
The answer is pace isn't it? Not surface or country but the pace of American racing defeats European horses. It is almost impossible to judge but I think it is the only real factor.

cj
11-14-2017, 11:59 PM
The answer is pace isn't it? Not surface or country but the pace of American racing defeats European horses. It is almost impossible to judge but I think it is the only real factor.

I don't think it is pace personally, not in sprint races. It could be training to some extent.

menifee
11-15-2017, 12:40 AM
It isn't just US horses. Australia and Hong Kong are certainly better at sprinting as well.

I'm surprised that the Australians don't come over here and win this race annually. Perhaps it is not enough money to ship all that way, but they have a clear class edge than American turf sprinters and will not be run off their feet like a euro might.

cj
11-15-2017, 12:44 AM
I'm surprised that the Australians don't come over here and win this race annually. Perhaps it is not enough money to ship all that way, but they have a clear class edge than American turf sprinters and will not be run off their feet like a euro might.

Agree. They've shipped to England and won big races in the past. I think it probably just isn't enough money to come here, enter, and take a chance of drawing the 12 post going 5f.