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PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 02:34 PM
Let's put all our musings and picks in one thread...for both days.

I'll start things off with my Friday BC Value Plays (for big race days like this, I will bet ANY of these horses if they are going off at or over my line):

Race 6
:11: Rushing Fall 9/5
:2: Happily 5/1

Race 7
:6: Mor Spirit 2/1
:3: Sharp Azteca 10/1
:8: Accelerate 11/1
:7: Cupid 17/1

Race 8
:6: Masar 3/1
:12: Hemp Hemp Hurray 4/1
:11: Snapper Sinclair 15/1
:1: Mendelssohn 20/1

Race 9
:4: Abel Tasman 3/1
:6: Forever Unbridled 8/1
:7: Paradise Woods 8/1
:2: Stellar Wind 10/1

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 02:43 PM
And here's my line for the first race at Del Mar:

:2: Good Bye Greg 8/5
:7: Loose On the Town 8/1

Lemon Drop Husker
11-03-2017, 03:03 PM
:5: Americanize

jay68802
11-03-2017, 03:05 PM
Race #4:

:4: Show It N Moe It 5-1
:6: Pulpit Rider 5-1

Race #5:

:1: Archanova 3-1

Race #6:

:4: Madeline 15-1
:8: Significant Form 6-1

Race #7:

:3: Sharp Azteca 4-1

Race #8:

:7: James Garfield 5-1
:12: Hemp Hemp Hurray 9-2

Race 9:

:5: Elate 7-2

Race #10:

:3: Instant Reflex 12-1
:9: Long Hot Summer 7-2

Odds are minimum acceptable odds.

Tom
11-03-2017, 03:11 PM
The Marathon

:7: 3-1
:3: 5-1

RunForTheRoses
11-03-2017, 03:13 PM
I do like the chalk 6 in here although the apparently healthy now 2 may run his eyeballs out.

Exact key box 6/2-5

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 03:21 PM
Del Mar is beautiful

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 03:25 PM
On the :2: in the first at Del Mar

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 03:27 PM
:5: AmericanizeGood call!

Mulerider
11-03-2017, 03:30 PM
:5: Americanize

Nice work

Lemon Drop Husker
11-03-2017, 03:30 PM
Good call!


22 flat, and carried it home.

Beautiful!

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 03:31 PM
Race 2 Del Mar:

:3: Record Highs 7/2
:11: Ritzy A.P. 7/2
:5: Start a Runnin 5/1

azeri98
11-03-2017, 03:33 PM
:5: Americanize

:ThmbUp:

Lemon Drop Husker
11-03-2017, 03:47 PM
:4::6::10::11: Tri Box.

:10: WP

RunForTheRoses
11-03-2017, 03:49 PM
Tough Race :11: is definitely one to beat but also used :3::6::9: in P5 and will use :1::4: underneath in 10 cent supers.

azeri98
11-03-2017, 03:52 PM
r2-:9:with:11::10::4::6: super

jay68802
11-03-2017, 03:57 PM
Race #2:


Exacta Box: :11: / :2::3::10:

Boris
11-03-2017, 03:58 PM
I'll give the :7: a few dollars in the win and place pool to have something to root for.

Immortal6
11-03-2017, 03:59 PM
R2
:4: Temple Keys

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 04:02 PM
Race 2 Del Mar:

:3: Record Highs 7/2
:11: Ritzy A.P. 7/2
:5: Start a Runnin 5/10 for 3 thus far

azeri98
11-03-2017, 04:04 PM
:ThmbUp:

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 04:04 PM
Race 3 Del Mar:

:1: Prime Issue 6/5
:2: City of Light 6/1

upthecreek
11-03-2017, 04:07 PM
:4::6::10::11: Tri Box.

:10: WP
Good job you cashed both👍👍👍

Lemon Drop Husker
11-03-2017, 04:14 PM
Good job you cashed both👍👍👍


Been a very good start to the day.:headbanger:

upthecreek
11-03-2017, 04:21 PM
Been a very good start to the day.:headbanger:
Glad to hear it I got knocked out of my early pick 3 -- I went 6-11-2 cold

azeri98
11-03-2017, 04:23 PM
r3-:2:with:1::5::11::12: super

Immortal6
11-03-2017, 04:31 PM
R3
Ex box :1::2::7:

jay68802
11-03-2017, 04:32 PM
Race #3:


:11: Sir Samson

Lemon Drop Husker
11-03-2017, 04:32 PM
:2::5::11:/same/all

:11: across

Bring it!

barahona44
11-03-2017, 04:35 PM
R 3 the :11: Sir Samson. W/p

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 04:36 PM
Race 3 Del Mar:

:1: Prime Issue 6/5
:2: City of Light 6/1On the :1:

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 04:36 PM
:2:city of light looks like an underlay , and Baffert's :10:Dabster didn't change leads the maiden win last time.

I'll sit this one out

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 04:39 PM
On the :1:0 for 4

Can't get a clear lead worth crap today

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 04:41 PM
Race 4 Del Mar:

:4: Show It N Moe It 2/1
:3: Ismelucky 5/1
:5: Sharona Sunset 10/1

GMB@BP
11-03-2017, 04:43 PM
This track is playing a lot like SA of last year, very quick and favoring front end speed. Not biased, at least I cant say that yet, just favors front end speed.

Going to be an interesting decision for Victor in the Distaff.

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 04:44 PM
Branching out to Aqueduct....Race 7... :2: Special Jo 9/5

RunForTheRoses
11-03-2017, 04:46 PM
This track is playing a lot like SA of last year, very quick and favoring front end speed. Not biased, at least I cant say that yet, just favors front end speed.

Going to be an interesting decision for Victor in the Distaff.

I dunno seeing that stretch drive in the 3rd I think you can use the B word. The 2 still wound up 2nd was an exhausted and sweaty horse but no one except the winner moved up.

dilanesp
11-03-2017, 04:46 PM
Whatever they announce, this crowd isn't that big. Clubhouse turn parking lot is 3/4 empty.

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 04:48 PM
Destin is taking almost as much $ as Hard Aces in the early doubles to race 5.

Whatever they announce, this crowd isn't that big. Clubhouse turn parking lot is 3/4 empty.

Looks at least 1/4 full to me.

azeri98
11-03-2017, 04:52 PM
R4-:8:with:3::4::6::9: super

GMB@BP
11-03-2017, 04:53 PM
I dunno seeing that stretch drive in the 3rd I think you can use the B word. The 2 still wound up 2nd was an exhausted and sweaty horse but no one except the winner moved up.

This race should help. the top 4 speeds in a paceless race are all 4/1 and up, one of them should be right there if that is the case.

I looked at race 3 for a closer and could not find one, ended up on the wrong horse, it felt like a front end horse would win, Dabster won 4 path about 3 lengths back or so. I dont think you want to be 10 lengths back at the 3/8ths, its a bad spot normally and today it looks worse. You have to be able to middle move if you are a mid to back of the pack runner.

Boris
11-03-2017, 04:54 PM
Why am I working so hard. Bris "Speed Last Race" top three boxed has two exactas and a tri through 3 races.

porkchop
11-03-2017, 04:56 PM
RACE 4 PK 3 > 6 8 9 / 1 4 7 / 2 4 7 11

Lemon Drop Husker
11-03-2017, 04:57 PM
Pace collapse special.

:1::3:/all/all

:1: to win

RunForTheRoses
11-03-2017, 05:02 PM
Wish I was doing battle here, had participated last 2 years, PA poster formerly known as Goof on the Roof is top 10 in very early results:

2017 Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge Standings After Race 3 Day 1 1Tom Smith22560Del Mar 2Eric Israel14600Del Mar 3Robert Talstra12860Del Mar 4Linda Rodriguez12000Del Mar 5Tim Zacharias11963.2Del Mar 6Danny Chavez11700Del Mar 7Travis Pearson11658Del Mar 8Evan Trommer11087.5Del Mar 9Vic Stauffer10980Twinspires 10Marshall Gramm10720Xpressbet

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 05:02 PM
race 4
1,3,8 all look live

barahona44
11-03-2017, 05:03 PM
R4 the :7: Smiling Tigress ,W/P

RunForTheRoses
11-03-2017, 05:05 PM
R4 Like the :9: but then again I can never figure Miller.

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 05:06 PM
Wish I was doing battle here, had participated last 2 years, PA poster formerly known as Goof on the Roof is top 10 in very early results:

2017 Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge Standings After Race 3 Day 1 1Tom Smith22560Del Mar 2Eric Israel14600Del Mar 3Robert Talstra12860Del Mar 4Linda Rodriguez12000Del Mar 5Tim Zacharias11963.2Del Mar 6Danny Chavez11700Del Mar 7Travis Pearson11658Del Mar 8Evan Trommer11087.5Del Mar 9Vic Stauffer10980Twinspires 10Marshall Gramm10720XpressbetCheap Vic Stauffer plug...:pound:

jocko699
11-03-2017, 05:08 PM
R4 20WP :1:

RunForTheRoses
11-03-2017, 05:10 PM
Cheap Vic Stauffer plug...:pound:


Lol like him or not he is good.

Mulerider
11-03-2017, 05:10 PM
$1 Exacta box :3::4::8:

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 05:10 PM
Race 4 Del Mar:

:4: Show It N Moe It 2/1
:3: Ismelucky 5/1
:5: Sharona Sunset 10/1On :4::5:

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 05:13 PM
R4 20WP :1:Nice! And Lemon Drop got another too!

GMB@BP
11-03-2017, 05:13 PM
R4 20WP :1:

:D

Last to first....you want to be near the lead but if your best you can win from behind.

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 05:13 PM
On :4::5:0 for 6 at Del Mar today

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 05:14 PM
I'm mainly an east coast guy , but I don't know who the hell Mick Ruis is.

All of a sudden, he's got Bold D'Oro running through walls and this juvenile filly wasn't amazing but she fired...

Is he a beard? been around forever and just broke through this year? :confused:

/nice payout $21.60. I lost a little value using the 6 and 9 2ND as well, but I'll take it

Lemon Drop Husker
11-03-2017, 05:16 PM
Alive in the Pick 5. To the :3: and :7:

GMB@BP
11-03-2017, 05:20 PM
I'm mainly an east coast guy , but I don't know who the hell Mick Ruis is.

All of a sudden, he's got Bold D'Oro running through walls and this juvenile filly wasn't amazing but she fired...

Is he a beard? been around forever and just broke through this year? :confused:

/nice payout $21.60. I lost a little value using the 6 and 9 2ND as well, but I'll take it

He has his own money and buys his horses and trains them himself. He just started training his own horses a couple years ago.

dilanesp
11-03-2017, 05:24 PM
He has his own money and buys his horses and trains them himself. He just started training his own horses a couple years ago.

His daughter Shelbe knows a ton about horses and assists.

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 05:33 PM
Del Mar Race 5:

:7: Hard Aces 6/5
:4: Estrechada 9/1

azeri98
11-03-2017, 05:34 PM
r5-:7:with:3::4::5::6:super

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 05:34 PM
He has his own money and buys his horses and trains them himself. He just started training his own horses a couple years ago.

He's doing something right.


Marathon S.
:7:=A
:3:=B
:1::6:=C


:1: is mildly interesting in a race where value isn't obvious. Should be in touch with pace and stay on.

:6: is probably up against the grain today. Have to guess that this will favor the forwardly placed runners, but Kent knows he has a live one, and will be coming with a rush.

:2: sucks, but could attend the pace and round out the tri or super if it's extremely forward favoring.

I'm having a tough time making a great value bet here

rastajenk
11-03-2017, 05:37 PM
I like the :7: more than the :3:.

I think I like the :6: and :8: more than the :3: also.

barahona44
11-03-2017, 05:41 PM
R 5, the :1: Archanova, w/p

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 05:46 PM
Del Mar Race 5:

:7: Hard Aces 6/5
:4: Estrechada 9/1On :7:...

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 05:49 PM
On :7:...Wow...my anchor is even strong enough to weigh Hard Aces down... 0 for 7

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 05:49 PM
On :7:...

why was he so far back off the pace? Did he miss the break? Had a lot of horse, but this was speed favoring

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 05:50 PM
Del Mar Race 6 BC Juv Filly Turf:

:11: Rushing Fall 9/5
:2: Happily 5/1

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 05:53 PM
that .50 Tri paid horrible... the :2: 2nd and the :5: 3rd were basically 'all' horses...

I guess I shouldn't expect much added longshot gimmick value if the favorite wins.

Lemon Drop Husker
11-03-2017, 05:54 PM
Starting off BC Friday with winning Pick 5 is a tad bit fun.

On to Happily in a romp.:ThmbUp:

nellanod
11-03-2017, 05:57 PM
Great hit on the pick 5----WAY TO GEAUX

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 05:59 PM
:3: NOW YOU'R TALKING currently 70-1.

Tom
11-03-2017, 06:07 PM
Juv Filly Turf

$1 tri box

:2::11: / :1::2::6::8::11: / :1::2::6::8::11:

$10 Exacta box :2::11:

Tom
11-03-2017, 06:16 PM
Anyone at NBC been told that there is betting on these races?
Might be nice to put some odds graphics up for the upcoming race.

porkchop
11-03-2017, 06:16 PM
RACE 6 EX 4 7 / 2 4 7 11

PK 3 > 2 4 7 11 / 4 6 10 / 3 4 5 6 7

azeri98
11-03-2017, 06:18 PM
super-:2::8:with:2::8::11::10::1::13:

jocko699
11-03-2017, 06:22 PM
$3 Exacta box :1:, :2:, :9:

bisket
11-03-2017, 06:23 PM
I was supposed to be at Del Mar this weekend. I had a week of surfing planned as I was gonna drive down the coast from San Francisco. I had to cancel the trip so here I am with you jokers in front the tube and at the PC :coffee: The only race I'm putting any cash on id the juvy filly turf. I think Madeline makes a race of it and makes the exotics worthwhile.

all bet boxed
5$ tri :2::4::13:
.20 super :2::4::7::11::13:
5$ ex :4::13:
.50 tri :2::3::4::11::13:
5$ ex :2::4::13:

Tom
11-03-2017, 06:30 PM
Now that was a nice run by the filly!

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 06:32 PM
Del Mar Race 6 BC Juv Filly Turf:

:11: Rushing Fall 9/5
:2: Happily 5/1A winner...finally....

1 for 8
$8.00

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 06:33 PM
Del Mar Race 7 - BC Dirt Mile

:6: Mor Spirit 2/1
:3: Sharp Azteca 10/1
:8: Accelerate 11/1
:7: Cupid 17/1

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 06:35 PM
Del Mar Race 7 - BC Dirt Mile

:6: Mor Spirit 2/1
:3: Sharp Azteca 10/1
:8: Accelerate 11/1
:7: Cupid 17/1

Cupid could be dangerous.

I used all 4 as A's so I'm rooting for him now.

davew
11-03-2017, 06:37 PM
why didn't the american jockeys open up the rail for the favorite Happily? sadly she finished last.

Aerocraft67
11-03-2017, 06:40 PM
Race 7

I like the :5: & :9: to do something here, but I also like the favorite.

:5:+:9: win, 2xplace
:6:/:5:,:9:

rastajenk
11-03-2017, 06:43 PM
I'm live in a P4 to :6::8::9: and :10:.

Got some longer shots in the next leg, hope I'm alive to enjoy them.

bisket
11-03-2017, 06:44 PM
I like Battle of Midway here...
boxed....

3$ ex :3::8::9:
5$ ex :8::9:
2$ :3::8::9:

soupman2
11-03-2017, 06:45 PM
W :6:

Ex :6:/:7::8:

Tri :6:/:7::8:

Super :6:/:7::8:/:7::8::9:/:1::2::7::8::9:

Geez, I might have to take a nap after this race...I'm now into tomorrows bankroll. Been a less than satisfactory day so far.

Lemon Drop Husker
11-03-2017, 06:50 PM
:8: Accelerate

bisket
11-03-2017, 06:53 PM
5$ ex straight :3::9: anomaly in pool

azeri98
11-03-2017, 06:54 PM
super:3::8:with:3::8::2::5::6:

jocko699
11-03-2017, 06:57 PM
R-7 $20 WPS :2: Giant Expectations

burnsy
11-03-2017, 06:58 PM
Race 7

:8:/ :5:,:6:,:3:


Accelerate with Awesome Slew, Mor Spirit, Sharp Azteca. Ex Box

:8: to win

Tom
11-03-2017, 07:00 PM
Mile Dirt -

:8: WP

:8::1: Box

:1: LS stab - $10 P

098poi
11-03-2017, 07:02 PM
I haven't been handicapping much but just got home from work so I'll throw my hat in.

R7 Win :6:, :7:

Speed Figure
11-03-2017, 07:04 PM
Nice value on #:5:! Boxing my top 3 in an EX! may put win bet on #:5:!

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 07:05 PM
Del Mar Race 7 - BC Dirt Mile

:6: Mor Spirit 2/1
:3: Sharp Azteca 10/1
:8: Accelerate 11/1
:7: Cupid 17/1On the chalk :6:

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 07:09 PM
5$ ex straight :3::9: anomaly in pool

ahhh!


big race from both. (hot pace3 , wide 9)

Tom
11-03-2017, 07:10 PM
5$ ex straight :3::9: anomaly in pool

Nice. :ThmbUp:

ldiatone
11-03-2017, 07:10 PM
5$ ex straight :3::9: anomaly in pool

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

098poi
11-03-2017, 07:11 PM
ahhh!


big race from both. (hot pace3 , wide 9)

Ouch!! I think a few guys hit something.

Aerocraft67
11-03-2017, 07:13 PM
I like Battle of Midway here...
boxed....

3$ ex :3::8::9:
5$ ex :8::9:
2$ :3::8::9:

5$ ex straight :3::9: anomaly in pool

You must have been going bananas!

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 07:14 PM
need :1:, :7:, or :8: in a pk3... and this race could be chaotic

bisket
11-03-2017, 07:15 PM
loved the 9 since the derby. I had him and lee in the tri in that race lol not pletchers!! I liked him in this spot.

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 07:16 PM
I like Battle of Midway here...
boxed....

3$ ex :3::8::9:
5$ ex :8::9:
2$ :3::8::9:VERY nice!

Tom
11-03-2017, 07:17 PM
BC Juv Turf

:4: 5-1
:9: 9-1

Box them, too.

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 07:17 PM
On the chalk :6:1 for 9
$8.00

Need to pick up the pace! :lol:

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 07:18 PM
Race 8 - BC JUV TURF:

:6: Masar 3/1
:12: Hemp Hemp Hurray 4/1
:11: Snapper Sinclair 15/1
:1: Mendelssohn 20/1

bisket
11-03-2017, 07:22 PM
didn't hit the straight bet for 5$ but had the exacta for 3$. I wish accelerate would have showed up. If the 3 would have won the exacta would have paid the same as the 9-3

depalma113
11-03-2017, 07:24 PM
Just got back from work. Missed the first two races. Would have lost. Saved some cash.

Juvenile Turf

Box the :2::9::13:

ldiatone
11-03-2017, 07:28 PM
r8 :6::7::10::13:

HalvOnHorseracing
11-03-2017, 07:31 PM
First two exactas in the bank. Race 8:

:1:
:13:
:6:
:5:

098poi
11-03-2017, 07:31 PM
R8 Win on :4:, :8:

Our Halloween was postponed due to storm (outside Boston) so I got kids coming to the door and then I have to go out. Good luck everyone.

bisket
11-03-2017, 07:33 PM
:5: beckford is a nice price here....
5$ ex box :5::9:

bisket
11-03-2017, 07:37 PM
add motions for a tri box
2$ :2::5::9:

burnsy
11-03-2017, 07:37 PM
Race 9

:6: Forever Unbridled Win

:6:, :2: Ex Box

:6:/:4:,:5:,:7: ex straight

Lemon Drop Husker
11-03-2017, 07:40 PM
:5: Beckford

soupman2
11-03-2017, 07:40 PM
Race 8

Bombs away

$5 WPS :10:

$3 Ex bX :10:/:13:

$1 Tri PW Bx :1: :10:/:1: :10:/:1: :10: :13:

jocko699
11-03-2017, 07:43 PM
$10WPS :3:

bisket
11-03-2017, 07:47 PM
.50 tri box and .10 super box

:2::5::9::12:

woodtoo
11-03-2017, 07:48 PM
key:2:w:8::12:box

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 07:49 PM
8 looks best and is a good value.

Got some backups going, just the same

Tee
11-03-2017, 07:50 PM
:13: My Boy Jack

ldiatone
11-03-2017, 07:57 PM
didnt have that :1:. ok price 9/2

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 07:59 PM
Race 8 - BC JUV TURF:

:6: Masar 3/1
:12: Hemp Hemp Hurray 4/1
:11: Snapper Sinclair 15/1
:1: Mendelssohn 20/1All three lost...now 1 for 12...$8.00...:(

depalma113
11-03-2017, 08:00 PM
My :2: was just hung too far out.

Aerocraft67
11-03-2017, 08:01 PM
I can't get past the :7: getting a handy lead with decent credentials to keep it.

Thomas Roulston
11-03-2017, 08:01 PM
Track configurations have always been my specialty around here - and boy, does that :1: post give a horse a tremendous advantage on that Del Mar turf course, especially at a mile.

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 08:03 PM
Race 9 - BC Distaff:

:4: Abel Tasman 3/1
:6: Forever Unbridled 8/1
:7: Paradise Woods 8/1
:2: Stellar Wind 10/1

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 08:04 PM
Abel Tasman is better than Elate.

Didn't she show us this when she came to NY?

So why is Elate heavily favored in comparison??

I noticed the ML and the public Handicappers also prefer Elate...

Is there something I'm missing?

If it's simply their last races, Mike Smith made a goofy premature run @ Parx, and Elate pulled away from weaker late to pad her margin...

I get that they could be moving in opposite directions, just not 7/5 and 6/1

CincyHorseplayer
11-03-2017, 08:04 PM
Was a little befuddled by 2 earlier winners so dialed back the late pick 4. Got busted out of my late P3's and am 3-0-1-0 on plays today. I am having fun though I swear!:D

Anyway will gladly take 4-1 on Forever Unbridled. To be continued.

Aerocraft67
11-03-2017, 08:05 PM
I can't get past the :7: getting a handy lead with decent credentials to keep it.

Although :4: at 6-1 fourth choice looks juicy, too. Exacta box?

CincyHorseplayer
11-03-2017, 08:06 PM
I can't get past the :7: getting a handy lead with decent credentials to keep it.

I might change bats and swing at this pitch too!:cool:

soupman2
11-03-2017, 08:06 PM
Race 9

OK- this is my last call then I'm going to have a beer and a cigar win or lose.

$5 WPS :4:

$3 Ex Key Bx :4:/:2::6:

PICSIX
11-03-2017, 08:10 PM
Me, PA and Prime Power :4: :headbanger:

HalvOnHorseracing
11-03-2017, 08:10 PM
Winner in Race 8.

Race 9 - BC Distaff

:5:
:2:
:4:
:6:

depalma113
11-03-2017, 08:11 PM
:1::6::7: Box

Aerocraft67
11-03-2017, 08:11 PM
Abel Tasman is better than Elate.


Heck, :2: towers over the favorites on paper, but goes off at a relatively tepid 3-1.

I liked the :7: going in, :2: seemed too obvious, but everyone's still on the :5:. Interesting market.

bisket
11-03-2017, 08:16 PM
distaff
boxed....

.50 super :1::5::7::8:
2$ tri :5::7::8:
1$ tri:1::7::8:
.50 tri :1::5::7::8:
add an exacta after looking at pools

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 08:17 PM
Heck, :2: towers over the favorites on paper, but goes off at a relatively tepid 3-1.

I liked the :7: going in, :2: seemed too obvious, but everyone's still on the :5:. Interesting market.

47 were my 'A's (on paper, didn't bet into this race w/ multis)

second guessing myself.

4 can get herself in trouble with a slow start... That weakness doesn't put me on Elate... If I was scared of the 4 starting poorly I'd like a speed like the 7, or a presser like 2 Stellar Wind.

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 08:25 PM
Wasn't Songbird overripe??

:6: FOREVER UNBRIDLED is going to have to run down other stretch-runners like :5::4:, even if she gets a good setup.... Looks like a big underlay today


I'm not a fan of :2:'s campaign, but she figures to sit pretty. :4::5: will have tocome get her.

:7: is a wildcard, but these races tend to test obvious wire-to-wire threats

bisket
11-03-2017, 08:25 PM
ex boxes
5$ :7::8:
1$ :1::7::8:
3$ :5::7::8:

bisket
11-03-2017, 08:26 PM
I like paradise woods here

ldiatone
11-03-2017, 08:27 PM
Me, PA and Prime Power :4: :headbanger:
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Aerocraft67
11-03-2017, 08:28 PM
Sorry to lard up the thread.

:7: Win x 5
:2:+:4:+:7: x 1 exacta box (dutched, 19 units total)

I'm basically against :3: and :6: at short prices among the favorites, and :7: is all or none, but I like her, and I think :2: and :4: offer a bit of value. Well, :2: is legit, maybe "value" is a bit strong.

Aerocraft67
11-03-2017, 08:29 PM
:7: is a wildcard, but these races tend to test obvious wire-to-wire threats

My fear. Tilting into this windmill.

JimG
11-03-2017, 08:32 PM
I like Abel Tasman #4 and Champagne Room #1 in this 9th race.

bisket
11-03-2017, 08:33 PM
can't believe the odds on Romantic Vision... homebred 2 bad races in the summer but every other race has been a great effort speed figures rate along with every other runner and she's 45 to 1? She's coming into the race nicely. Don't get it. So many great values during the Cup.

Lemon Drop Husker
11-03-2017, 08:34 PM
:7: ParadisebWoods looked fabulous

:6::7:/same/all

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 08:35 PM
Race 9 - BC Distaff:

:4: Abel Tasman 3/1
:6: Forever Unbridled 8/1
:7: Paradise Woods 8/1
:2: Stellar Wind 10/1On :4:

Tee
11-03-2017, 08:35 PM
Can they catch :7: Paradise Woods? Try at your own risk I would think.

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 08:40 PM
Nice run by the 6.

I was wrong about that one.

depalma113
11-03-2017, 08:41 PM
Split again!

I wish there was a bet where you could pick the horses that come in 1st and 3rd, I would be rich.

Aerocraft67
11-03-2017, 08:43 PM
Track configurations have always been my specialty around here - and boy, does that :1: post give a horse a tremendous advantage on that Del Mar turf course, especially at a mile.

Thought you had it there for a bit. That run seemed to dictate the outcome.

CincyHorseplayer
11-03-2017, 08:46 PM
Damnit had the win on Unbridled Forever but had a $20 exacta with Paradise Woods! Been a mediocre day for me!:)

PaceAdvantage
11-03-2017, 08:46 PM
On :4:1 for 13....$8...terrible start to BC weekend...:faint:

detective
11-03-2017, 08:49 PM
Well after a near disaster day today my 25 years of Handicapping experience went down the drain. I have never had a worse start to a breeders cup than today. I am ashamed of my handicapping and will not be posting any picks for tomorrow,. Good Luck to everyone.

plainolebill
11-03-2017, 08:52 PM
9th race I'm going to take a shot with :3: Instant Reflex

GMB@BP
11-03-2017, 08:53 PM
Well after a near disaster day today my 25 years of Handicapping experience went down the drain. I have never had a worse start to a breeders cup than today. I am ashamed of my handicapping and will not be posting any picks for tomorrow,. Good Luck to everyone.

Dont feel bad man, I liked a 30 winner and still broke even....This game is just about impossible.

Who had Prat rating Paradise Woods in what looked like slow fractions (never been posted)

bisket
11-03-2017, 09:03 PM
Broke even going into tomorrow. I really think the two favs are suspect in the classic tomorrow. It might be the best betting opportunity of the weekend. Two three year olds might fill the void.... I like to roll the dice, and I'm really looking at Pavel.

Lemon Drop Husker
11-03-2017, 09:05 PM
So much fun
Been an incredible day.

2--10/2-8-9-10/all

Even better tomorrow!

burnsy
11-03-2017, 09:06 PM
Nice run by the 6.

I was wrong about that one.


I wasn't, loved that one. The only reason she was running this year was to be in this race. Two races, the one at Saratoga she ran twice as far as everyone else and won both times. The prices were good not great but there were no Beholders or Songbirds this year........it was her turn. The class of it

thespaah
11-03-2017, 09:08 PM
Two hundred feet?
Cue the AFLAC Duck.....Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhh?

CincyHorseplayer
11-03-2017, 09:13 PM
10 Dmr

:1: win

:1::9: w :1::2::5::7::9: ex

PICSIX
11-03-2017, 09:13 PM
10th: Win Dutch :2::7:

rastajenk
11-03-2017, 09:23 PM
Prat-man had a day to remember.:ThmbUp:

PICSIX
11-03-2017, 09:23 PM
10th: Win Dutch :2::7:

:ThmbUp:

GMB@BP
11-03-2017, 09:58 PM
Prat-man had a day to remember.:ThmbUp:

You mean because of his non aggressive ride on confirmed front runner in a paceless race with Paradise Woods?

jahura2
11-03-2017, 11:18 PM
You mean because of his non aggressive ride on confirmed front runner in a paceless race with Paradise Woods?

I,m with you GMB, cant for the life of me understand why you dont let a free running horse like Paradise Woods run her race. I like Pratt but thought he misread that one.

Afleet
11-04-2017, 01:44 AM
I like Battle of Midway here...
boxed....

3$ ex :3::8::9:
5$ ex :8::9:
2$ :3::8::9:

nice call!

Afleet
11-04-2017, 01:45 AM
Starting off BC Friday with winning Pick 5 is a tad bit fun.

On to Happily in a romp.:ThmbUp:

excellent handicapping!

Vinnie
11-04-2017, 02:34 AM
excellent handicapping!

Excellent Job Lemon Drop Husker!! :headbanger:

CincyHorseplayer
11-04-2017, 08:44 AM
Starting off BC Friday with winning Pick 5 is a tad bit fun.

On to Happily in a romp.:ThmbUp:

Nicely done Lemon! Hope to steal some of that magic from you!:ThmbUp:

delsully
11-04-2017, 08:58 AM
loved the 9 since the derby. I had him and lee in the tri in that race lol not pletchers!! I liked him in this spot.

I hate to admit I did the same thing derby day, even had CE in for the super. I thought his SA derby was one sneaky good race. Did all the heavy lifting with quick fractions and fought hard the whole way. Nice hit :headbanger:

Tom
11-04-2017, 09:54 AM
Two hundred feet?
Cue the AFLAC Duck.....Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhh?

It's only 150 feet from the barns to the paddock.

Lemon Drop Husker
11-04-2017, 10:17 AM
Gonna be tough to top yesterday, but we are cot damn gonna put in the effort.:headbanger:

ubercapper
11-04-2017, 10:28 AM
I'm looking forward to this wide open race. I like Sound and Silence at 5 to 2 or better. He's the most heavily raced in the field (8 stats this year) and a Group 3 winner. He's run four superb races in a row, 3 at this 5 furlong trip.

I'm playing Sound and Silence to win at 5/2 and keying him on top and underneath in exactas with Elizabeth Darcy, Treasuring, Out of the Flames, March X Press and Fairyland.

I will make token win bets on any of those five at 7 to 1 or more so as not to be kicking myself later.

My opinion of this race, and a few others, are available on the podcast I published (free) and some are included on the blog posted at

https://www.amwager.com/handicapping/ellis-starr-blog/491-key-bets-races-for-saturday,-november-4


Just in case the podcast isn't embedded on the blog page, you can also get it at http://ubercapper.podbean.com/

Good Luck Today!!

(http://ubercapper.podbean.com/)

Vinnie
11-04-2017, 10:34 AM
Gonna be tough to top yesterday, but we are cot damn gonna put in the effort.:headbanger:

Awesome going yesterday Lemon Drop Husker! Excellent Capping Magic... Well Done sir!! :)

bisket
11-04-2017, 12:02 PM
You have to handicap Del Mar similar to Monmouth. Horses that run well on their right lead have an edge. That was the difference between Forever Unbridled and Able Tasman yesterday. They were both in the rear on the backstretch but Unbridled gained position on the turn and Tasman didn't make a run until they straightened out and switched to her left. Her best race has been on the long stretch at Churchill.....

bisket
11-04-2017, 12:09 PM
You have to handicap Del Mar similar to Monmouth. Horses that run well on their right lead have an edge. That was the difference between Forever Unbridled and Able Tasman yesterday. They were both in the rear on the backstretch but Unbridled gained position on the turn and Tasman didn't make a run until they straightened out and switched to her left. Her best race has been on the long stretch at Churchill.....

Could explain the results in the turf races yesterday... Euro's not gaining many top positions... and why Arrogate has problems here..?

dilanesp
11-04-2017, 01:52 PM
Day 2!! Once again, nobody here. Maybe they will arrive late. Beautiful weather. Ulysses didn't pass the vet exam after his long odyssey. Should be a fun day!

PaceAdvantage
11-04-2017, 01:54 PM
Everybody shows up fashionably late in SoCal...;)

jay68802
11-04-2017, 01:58 PM
Day 2!! Once again, nobody here. Maybe they will arrive late. Beautiful weather. Ulysses didn't pass the vet exam after his long odyssey. Should be a fun day!

Enjoy, I am stuck in Nebraska and the word "snow" keeps being said.:pout:

Race 1:

:10: Majestic heat

:12: Mrs Mcdougle

Lemon Drop Husker
11-04-2017, 01:58 PM
Tough to win the P5 3 days in a row without the :10: in the first.

Gonna be a fantastic day.:headbanger:

PaceAdvantage
11-04-2017, 01:59 PM
Race 1 Del Mar:

:7: Kitten's Roar 2/1
:1: On Leave 10/1
:12: Mrs McDougal 16/1
:6: Hillhouse High 21/1

Vinnie
11-04-2017, 01:59 PM
Enjoy today everyone!! :)

Taking a shot at a Nice Tri in DMR R1.

:7: w/ :1::2::4::9:

dilanesp
11-04-2017, 01:59 PM
Enjoy, I am stuck in Nebraska and the word "snow" keeps being said.:pout:

Race 1:

:10: Majestic heat

:12: Mrs Mcdougle

Majestic Heat is the :9: .

AxleLode
11-04-2017, 02:02 PM
Race1):7:win
:7:w/:11:,:4:,:3: ex

jay68802
11-04-2017, 02:05 PM
Majestic Heat is the :9: .

Ooop's

How about Madame Stripes, the talk of "snow" has me a little out of kilter.

duncan04
11-04-2017, 02:08 PM
R1- :1:to win and :1::7:ex box

098poi
11-04-2017, 02:09 PM
Morning

R1

Ex Box :1::8::14:

Tee
11-04-2017, 02:10 PM
At a price, I like the way :4: Thundering Sky looked in the post parade. :1: & :7: make sense, but do not offer much price wise. Perhaps :9: Majestic Heat can get in the mix late at 12/1.

Lemon Drop Husker
11-04-2017, 02:11 PM
:9: looked phenomenal in the post parade.

Afleet
11-04-2017, 02:12 PM
Tough to win the P5 3 days in a row without the :10: in the first.

Gonna be a fantastic day.:headbanger:

I'm having problems picking 1:)

098poi
11-04-2017, 02:17 PM
At a price, I like the way :4: Thundering Sky looked in the post parade. :1: & :7: make sense, but do not offer much price wise. Perhaps :9: Majestic Heat can get in the mix late at 12/1.

Good eye! :ThmbUp:

duncan04
11-04-2017, 02:18 PM
Race1):7:win
:7:w/:11:,:4:,:3: ex


Nice call!!

Vinnie
11-04-2017, 02:18 PM
Enjoy today everyone!! :)

Taking a shot at a Nice Tri in DMR R1.

:7: w/ :1::2::4::9:

I'll take that Tri. in the first one for 208....:)

PaceAdvantage
11-04-2017, 02:19 PM
Race 1 Del Mar:

:7: Kitten's Roar 2/1
:1: On Leave 10/1
:12: Mrs McDougal 16/1
:6: Hillhouse High 21/1Start the day with a winner...things are looking up already

AxleLode
11-04-2017, 02:19 PM
Race1):7:win
:7:w/:11:,:4:,:3: ex

:7:win paid8.20
:7:/:4:ex paid 129.60

Afleet
11-04-2017, 02:22 PM
:7:win paid8.20
:7:/:4:ex paid 129.60

very nice exacta!

PaceAdvantage
11-04-2017, 02:24 PM
Nice Ex & Tri you guys!

Vinnie
11-04-2017, 02:27 PM
DMR R2 See as a Pass because it looks very chalky, however, Exacta Box :6::1::2:

dilanesp
11-04-2017, 02:33 PM
Yeah I think the betting public is right about the second race.

duncan04
11-04-2017, 02:37 PM
R2- :6: to win and :6::1: exacta box

Lemon Drop Husker
11-04-2017, 02:42 PM
:1::6:

Looked like an easy 1-2 in the early P5.

:7: looked great. Ricky Bobby 1st or last sort.

098poi
11-04-2017, 02:43 PM
EX :6: / :2::5:

barahona44
11-04-2017, 02:45 PM
:3: win place

dilanesp
11-04-2017, 02:50 PM
Yeah I think the betting public is right about the second race.


And they were. The :6: was a slight favorite over the :1: . Good job, wagering public!

duncan04
11-04-2017, 02:52 PM
R2- :6: to win and :6::1: exacta box

6 pd $5.60
6-1 ex pd $10.20 ($2)

098poi
11-04-2017, 02:57 PM
R3

$100 WP :4:

Vinnie
11-04-2017, 03:00 PM
Race 3

Exacta Box :3::10::12:

Win on the :3: Count Alexander, (V. Cerin and Nakatani) C-Nak to get it done.... :)

jay68802
11-04-2017, 03:14 PM
Race #3:


Exacta Box: :1::7::9::11:

PaceAdvantage
11-04-2017, 03:16 PM
BC Juvenile Fillies

:7: Moonshine Memories 2/1
:13: Separationofpowers 4/1
:9: Alluring Star 7/1

barahona44
11-04-2017, 03:18 PM
R 3. :1: Fairyland. W/P

Tee
11-04-2017, 03:18 PM
:8: Out of The Flames much better odds than :5: Sound And Silence. Ability may show the difference here in a bit.

If the pace gets a little too hot, I like the :3: Count Alexander & :10: March X Press to be running em down late.

salty
11-04-2017, 03:19 PM
Race 3

I wanted to bet the :10: but she is too short

I'm taking the :9: instead for the win Moore/O'brien at 15/1 is a deal

I always like the exacta box on Breeders Cup Day

boxing :6::7::9::10:

Lemon Drop Husker
11-04-2017, 03:19 PM
:9:

razorback5
11-04-2017, 03:20 PM
Race 3

:4:,:5:,:6: Ex box

PaceAdvantage
11-04-2017, 03:20 PM
Just so everyone is aware, BOXCAR has posted a $50 winner, followed up by a $60 winner, both at Woodbine today....

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2237925#post2237925

WOW!!

upthecreek
11-04-2017, 03:20 PM
R 3. :1: Fairyland. W/P
I'll piggy back on your post #1 is my pick as well

Vinnie
11-04-2017, 03:25 PM
:9:

What a burst by the :9: . That was something else.... WOW!!

Tee
11-04-2017, 03:25 PM
Big run by - Declarationofpeace. Nicely done by those who had him!!

098poi
11-04-2017, 03:25 PM
:9:


Nice!! I surrender.

Tom
11-04-2017, 03:28 PM
Juv Filly

:7: Moonshine Memories - the one to beat
:8: Piedi Bianchi showed some promise in her first try around two turns while racing 4 wide 7/8s. I love this angle from my first years playing -
a horse improves a lot in the second route try.

A couple lengths of improvement and she is right there with the 7, but at better odds. TFUS says fast pace, so this one is worth a second look.

:13:Separation of Powers - never been around two turns. Cost of racing in NY. I will not use her or anything that finished behind her.

barahona44
11-04-2017, 03:29 PM
Congrats to Salty and LDH for getting the winner!

Lemon Drop Husker
11-04-2017, 03:29 PM
Nice!! I surrender.


I got me some repentence for Declaration of War.

P5 is alive and the fun us just starting!:headbanger:

CincyHorseplayer
11-04-2017, 03:38 PM
I got me some repentence for Declaration of War.

P5 is alive and the fun us just starting!:headbanger:

Alright brother! I keyed a P3 with the :5: and :9: in that race so alive as well. C'mon!:headbanger:

CincyHorseplayer
11-04-2017, 03:39 PM
Race 3

I wanted to bet the :10: but she is too short

I'm taking the :9: instead for the win Moore/O'brien at 15/1 is a deal

I always like the exacta box on Breeders Cup Day

boxing :6::7::9::10:

Very nice Salty!:ThmbUp:

Vinnie
11-04-2017, 03:41 PM
I got me some repentence for Declaration of War.

P5 is alive and the fun us just starting!:headbanger:

Dare I say "ENFUEGO" for LDH!! Excellent Capping Sir!!:headbanger:


DMR R4-

Ex. Box :7::9::11::13:, Possible win Bet :11: Wonder Gadot.. Gotta pull for Wonder Woman...:)

Psychotic Parakeet
11-04-2017, 03:43 PM
#11 Wonder Gadot and #6 Stainless for the BC Juvenile Fillies.

PaceAdvantage
11-04-2017, 03:45 PM
A 90-1 shot just won at FL...I don' think Boxcar had that one...:lol:

90-1 in an eight horse field...there was another horse in the race at 88-1...OMG

bisket
11-04-2017, 03:45 PM
juvy fillies Maya Malibu improves with the blinkys
boxed
1$ ex :5::10::13:
1$ ex :5::7::10:
1$ ex :5::10::12:
.50 tri :5::7::10::13:
.10 super :5::7::8::10::12::13:

HalvOnHorseracing
11-04-2017, 03:48 PM
Race 4

:7:
:13:
:11:
Backhole runners: :1:, :3:, :8:

TheGarMan
11-04-2017, 03:48 PM
Race 4 Delmar

Swinging for the fences here... :4::11::10: :headbanger:

upthecreek
11-04-2017, 03:49 PM
Like #1 Heavenly Love, don't like current 7/2

AxleLode
11-04-2017, 03:49 PM
Race4):1:win
:1:w/:13:,:10:,:9:ex

PaceAdvantage
11-04-2017, 03:50 PM
BC Turf Sprint:

:3: Lady Aurelia 2/1
:6: Marsha 7/1
:8: Cotai Glory 11/1

Secondbest
11-04-2017, 03:51 PM
5-8-11 plus whatever LDH likes

depalma113
11-04-2017, 03:51 PM
Juvenile Fillies
Exacta Box the :3::7::9::13:
Trifecta: :3::13:/3:7::9::13:/:3::7::9::12::13:
Superfecta: :13:/:3::7::9:/:3::7::9::12:/ALL

Lemon Drop Husker
11-04-2017, 03:52 PM
If you make the trip, get the corned beef rueben.

:1::3::4::11::13:

Taking the :4: WP

Tom
11-04-2017, 03:53 PM
Looks like a lot of empty seats in the PP shot.....where is everyone?

jay68802
11-04-2017, 03:54 PM
Race #4:

Pick 3: :3::5::6::9::11::12::13: / :1::3::6::8::11: / :11:

woodtoo
11-04-2017, 03:56 PM
:4::8::12:

razorback5
11-04-2017, 03:58 PM
ex box

:6::8::9::13:

098poi
11-04-2017, 03:59 PM
R4

Win :11:, :13:

Psychotic Parakeet
11-04-2017, 04:00 PM
Looks like a lot of empty seats in the PP shot.....where is everyone?

Getting screwed over from the parking situation like yesterday.

PaceAdvantage
11-04-2017, 04:00 PM
BC Juvenile Fillies

:7: Moonshine Memories 2/1
:13: Separationofpowers 4/1
:9: Alluring Star 7/1On all three :eek:

salty
11-04-2017, 04:00 PM
Thank You Bar
I can't resist double digits on that combo. I misprinted my exacta box i put the 6 instead of the 5. So I actually hit the exacta too. Starting the day off nice.

Race 4:

Chalk race but there is a chance.

:5:

:popcorn:


Boxing
:1::5::7::13:

HalvOnHorseracing
11-04-2017, 04:00 PM
The rest of the day:

Race 5 :1:, :3:, :6:, :11:

Race 6 :9:, :11:, :8:, :7:

Race 7 :9:, :6:, :1:, :14:

Race 8 :7:, :2:, :10:, :9:

Race 9 :10:, :5:, :2:, :1:

Race 10 :11:, :2:, :3:, :5:

Race 11 :5:, :14:, :12:, :8:

Race 12 :10:, :5:, :8:, :11:

bisket
11-04-2017, 04:01 PM
Looks like a lot of empty seats in the PP shot.....where is everyone?

LOL I had a heckava time getting rid of mine on Stub Hub. I took a 100$ hit... That's why I like going to the Cup opposed to the Preakness, even though I'm a Baltimore boy. My uncle use to say, "if you like to go to the track, The Preakness isn't the day to be at the track. I was at Santa Anita in 2013 and really enjoyed it.