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View Full Version : Discussing Friday's Breeders Cup card


Robert Fischer
11-01-2017, 08:55 PM
in this thread I will think out loud while going over Friday's races.

Feel free to discuss.

Mulerider
11-01-2017, 09:10 PM
Robert, I'd be interested in your thoughts on the Euros in Races 6 and 8.

Mule

Robert Fischer
11-01-2017, 09:31 PM
1.ARCHANOVA - 4/1 ML, I can't see this guy winning. His last race at Belmont (Temperence Hill) was mildly interesting because of the ground loss. A case could be made for hitting the board because of that race. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

2.INFOBEDAD - 12/1 ML, Looks like a non-contender. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

3.DESTIN - 5/1 ML, Not a big fan, but in a race without much starpower, he can at least run a solid race. JCGC has excuses. If the favorite runs a dud and Destin gets a good forwardly placed trip he could be in a good position turning for home. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'B' (needs favorable trip)

4.ESTRECHADA - 3/1 ML, She looks bad to me. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely). I am slightly bothered that her morning line odds and my opinion are at such opposite ends of the spectrum. I am considering using her as a 'C' (unlikely but unknown)

5.NOBLE NICK - 12/1 ML, Looks like a non-contender. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

6.GROUND RULES - 8/1 ML, Most likely outclassed and will simply flatten-out at the increase in distance. Last race and pattern of improvement is interesting enough to consider as a long shot. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely but unknown)

7.HARD ACES - 5/2 ML, He looks like the only real grade 2 horse in the field. If he doesn't fire, it could get interesting, but this is a standout horse. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'A' (win contender).

8.DRESSED IN HERMES - 8/1 ML, Looks like a non-contender. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)




I may end up passing this race. On the fence. Hard Aces seems like an obvious 'Key', but I'm not crazy about it. Decision will come down to value on some of the other opinions.

Robert Fischer
11-01-2017, 11:50 PM
1.BEST PERFORMANCE - 12/1 ML, More of a price to hit the board than a win contender. Two back ran slightly against the grain. Last time ran nearly as well as the Chad Brown filly. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

2.HAPPILY - 9/2 ML, Strong record. Looked good visually last time in the French race. The only question I can even come up with is whether she will like a harder surface. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'A' (win contender).

3.NOW YOU'RE TALKING - 30/1 ML, Looks like a tremendous value. She will love the mile distance. Probably wants to run counter clockwise(not a major factor in my decision, but could be a nice bonus). As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'B' (needs favorable trip). Tempted to key in vertical exotics.

4.MADELINE - 20/1 ML, Love that she's stretching out to a mile in the US at a big price. She's not as good as NOW YOU'RE TALKING, but she's also a good value. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown).

5.ULTIMA D - 12/1 ML, Big step up in class. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

6.ORBULUTION - 20/1 ML, Shouldn't be in the race. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

7.CAPLA TEMPTRESS - 6/1 ML, Short on value if ml is true. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely) Would include underneath on coverage verticals.

8.SIGNIFICANT FORM - 8/1 ML, Solid horse from a top barn. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'B' (needs favorable trip).

9.FATALE BERE - 9/1 ML, All out to win minor stake last time. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

10.SEPTEMBER - 6/1 ML, Solid horse from a top barn. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'B' (needs favorable trip).

11.RUSHING FALL - 7/2 ML, Good kick @ Kee. Probably Brown's 'a' horse. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'A' (win contender).

12.DIXIE MOON - 20/1 ML, Looks to be outclassed. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

13.JULIET CAPULET - 12/1 ML, She will be a fair price and is a little bit scary. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown).

14.MOON DASH - 15/1 ML, Looks to be outclassed. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

two 'a's , three 'b's, and two 'c's... This is a deep race.

DeanT
11-02-2017, 12:29 AM
I'm a little interested in Ultima D. Seems to have some talent, speed could be dangerous. Agree with you on most else there tho.

Robert Fischer
11-02-2017, 12:43 AM
1. IRON FIST - 12/1 ML, Looks to be outclassed. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

2. GIANT EXPECTATIONS - 12/1 ML, Looks to be outclassed. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

3. SHARP AZTECA - 9/2 ML, fast horse, supertrainer. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'A' (win contender)

4. GATO DEL ORO - 30/1 ML, Shouldn't be in the race. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

5. AWESOME SLEW - 12/1 ML, Good closer in good form. Good chance to hit the board. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

6. MOR SPIRIT - 3/1 ML, fast horse, supertrainer. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'A' (win contender)

7. CUPID - 8/1 ML, fast horse, supertrainer. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown)

8. ACCELERATE - 7/2 ML, keyed up and down in verticals last year @ 40-1... this year not much value. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'B' (needs favorable trip).

9. BATTLE OF MIDWAY - 10/1 ML, Cool horse, great value in the Derby. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

10. PRACTICAL JOKE - 6/1 ML, So tired of hearing about how he needs one turn, that if I don't win, then I hope he wins. Then grabs a microphone and magically speaks, saying how much he loved the two turns today. Shouldn't be fast enough, but he's a good horse in good form for an elite trainer. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown)

Mulerider
11-02-2017, 12:54 AM
We're in agreement on the top 4 in Race 6 (that might be a source of concern for you! :)) I have them ranked:

:11: Rushing Fall
:2: Happily
:8: Significant Form
:10: September

Followed by:

:6: Orbolution
:1: Best Performance

Orbolution is #2 in Bris Prime Power, and I can't figure out why unless they feel the pace will set up for her strong late run. Happily and September aren't even on Bris' radar, apparently. Presumably that's the lack of speed data.

Robert Fischer
11-02-2017, 01:18 PM
1. MENDELSSOHN - 8/1 ML, I wasn't crazy about this one. Tempted to make a 'c' for the connections. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

2. UNTAMED DOMAIN - 8/1 ML, Doesn't seem to be very talented. Tempted to make a 'c' for the connections. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

3. SANDS OF MALI - 30/1 ML, I love that he's stretching out. I love that he's coming off of a troubled trip where he was bet. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'C' (unlikely unknown) May consider an underneath key in a tri or super.

4. CATHOLIC BOY - 12/1 ML, Solid horse. I'm guessing that he's not top class. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

5. BECKFORD - 8/1 ML, Love that he's stretching out at a good price, but I'm not sure if he's a top contender. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown)

6. MASAR - 9/2 ML, I don't have a good understanding of this horse. Qatar Prix didn't wow me. Great company lines. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown). I may upgrade to a 'B'

7. JAMES GARFIELD - 6/1 ML, I don't have a good understanding of this horse. Great company lines. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown). I may upgrade to a 'B'

8. VOTING CONTROL - 8/1 ML, Loved Pilgrim Stakes effort. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'A' (win contender)

9. ENCUMBERED - 15/1 ML, Seems to be outclassed here. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

10. FLAMEAWAY -20/1 ML, As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

11. SNAPPER SINCLAIR - 15/1 ML, Intriguing. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

12. HEMP HEMP HURRAY - 8/1 ML, This horse bothers me. I'm tempted to call this one an unlikely-unknown 'c'. Only thing I don't love is his pressing style, that has come from sprints. Deeper waters. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

13. MY BOY JACK - 8/1 ML, Nice run in the Zuma Beach. Figures to be outclassed today. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

14. RAJASINGHE - 30/ML, Seems to be one of the weaker foreign shippers. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

Robert Fischer
11-02-2017, 01:32 PM
A's = 7 PARADISE WOODS, 5 ELATE, 4 ABEL TASMAN, 2 STELLAR WIND

C = 6 FOREVER UNBRIDLED


tough race, you've got some trip possibilities(P.Woods), and several good ones. No need to get too specific.

Boris
11-02-2017, 02:20 PM
1.ARCHANOVA - 4/1 ML, I can't see this guy winning. His last race at Belmont (Temperence Hill) was mildly interesting because of the ground loss. A case could be made for hitting the board because of that race. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

2.INFOBEDAD - 12/1 ML, Looks like a non-contender. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

3.DESTIN - 5/1 ML, Not a big fan, but in a race without much starpower, he can at least run a solid race. JCGC has excuses. If the favorite runs a dud and Destin gets a good forwardly placed trip he could be in a good position turning for home. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'B' (needs favorable trip)

4.ESTRECHADA - 3/1 ML, She looks bad to me. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely). I am slightly bothered that her morning line odds and my opinion are at such opposite ends of the spectrum. I am considering using her as a 'C' (unlikely but unknown)

5.NOBLE NICK - 12/1 ML, Looks like a non-contender. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

6.GROUND RULES - 8/1 ML, Most likely outclassed and will simply flatten-out at the increase in distance. Last race and pattern of improvement is interesting enough to consider as a long shot. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely but unknown)

7.HARD ACES - 5/2 ML, He looks like the only real grade 2 horse in the field. If he doesn't fire, it could get interesting, but this is a standout horse. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'A' (win contender).

8.DRESSED IN HERMES - 8/1 ML, Looks like a non-contender. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)




I may end up passing this race. On the fence. Hard Aces seems like an obvious 'Key', but I'm not crazy about it. Decision will come down to value on some of the other opinions.

Thanks!! I was hoping someone would break this race down. I agree with your analysis with the exception of the #1. I fall into this trap at times weighing the people moves too much, but Landeros traveling cross county tonight to climb aboard has me intrigued. Light on class, but looks fit and could be the control on the front end. If you pass the race, root for him as I'll be looking to fund the rest of the day with a win. I'll play him under HARD ACES as well.

The Biscuit
11-02-2017, 02:26 PM
1.BEST PERFORMANCE - 12/1 ML, More of a price to hit the board than a win contender. Two back ran slightly against the grain. Last time ran nearly as well as the Chad Brown filly. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)


Feel lasix should boost her chances ... bit under the radar

Trainer Clement 20/24 ITM with 2 year olds on turf ... problem is he is usually a no show in BC races I think ?


Appreciate the breakdown bro ... it helps !!!!

The Biscuit
11-02-2017, 02:36 PM
We're in agreement on the top 4 in Race 6 (that might be a source of concern for you! :)) I have them ranked:

:11: Rushing Fall
:2: Happily
:8: Significant Form
:10: September

Followed by:

:6: Orbolution
:1: Best Performance

Orbolution is #2 in Bris Prime Power, and I can't figure out why unless they feel the pace will set up for her strong late run. Happily and September aren't even on Bris' radar, apparently. Presumably that's the lack of speed data.


Feel anything goes with the 2 yr olds and as with Orbolution ... he was bumped at the start of each of his last 2 races ... How do you handicap that ?

I feel with Pletcher ( most wins 16 ) with 2 yr olds on the turf there is great value ... Look at his odds .. 2-1 ( last race ) .... today 20-1 ...give me a break ... I'll take that shit everyday ...just my opinion ...

I agree with you bud .... throw em in the gimmicks


also love Best Performance too !!!

Robert Fischer
11-02-2017, 02:41 PM
I'm a little interested in Ultima D. Seems to have some talent, speed could be dangerous. Agree with you on most else there tho.

She is dangerous. Could certainly establish a good position and inherit a winning position entering the stretch. I'm against, but I could be wrong.

Tom
11-02-2017, 03:02 PM
When you only look at SW at 9 furlongs, she is not a very impressive horse at all. At to that a long layoff, and I wonder why they are bothering? She will not be in any of my exotics, either.

Robert Fischer
11-02-2017, 03:57 PM
When you only look at SW at 9 furlongs, she is not a very impressive horse at all. At to that a long layoff, and I wonder why they are bothering? She will not be in any of my exotics, either.

that could get you some instant value.

Wasn't Abel Tasman the one that Mike Smith rode like he(mike) was using performance enhancers last time? She should be solid if Paradise Woods doesn't control the pace...

Mor Spirit is another 'layoff' horse. Serling mentioned some workout issues following the Met (as opposed to the long intentional layoff Baffert pulled w/ Arrogate out of the Travers last year). That's another one where if you're right, you get instant value. (or if you're wrong you get instant karma :lol: )

Robert Fischer
11-02-2017, 04:04 PM
1.BEST PERFORMANCE - 12/1 ML, More of a price to hit the board than a win contender. Two back ran slightly against the grain. Last time ran nearly as well as the Chad Brown filly. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)


Feel lasix should boost her chances ... bit under the radar

Trainer Clement 20/24 ITM with 2 year olds on turf ... problem is he is usually a no show in BC races I think ?


Appreciate the breakdown bro ... it helps !!!!

I'm very tempted to couple her with the #3 NYT in key underneath somehow.

rough example
exacta A'sBsCs over the :1::3:
$.50c Tri A'sB's/A'sBsCs/:1::3:
$.10c Spr A'sB's/A'sBsCs/AllorMost/:1::3:

Immortal6
11-02-2017, 05:10 PM
Mor Spirit is another 'layoff' horse. Serling mentioned some workout issues following the Met (as opposed to the long intentional layoff Baffert pulled w/ Arrogate out of the Travers last year). That's another one where if you're right, you get instant value. (or if you're wrong you get instant karma :lol: )

I'm all over Sharp Azteca in the mile. Mor Spirit's performance in the Met was absolutely breath taking but I'm fading off that long layoff. I'm hoping for at least 5-1, the Baffert horses and The Joker will take a lot of money I believe. Accelerate seems to be the horse for the course in that race and gives me pause on keying SA on top. I also think Battle of Midway could surprise for a piece. While he didn't beat a great group in his only showing at Del Mar I still thought it was a very impressive win visually.

Robert Fischer
11-02-2017, 06:46 PM
Have to switch :9: ENCUMBERED to a 'C' (unlikely unknown). After watching his last Turf try, and recent work, I can see that this is a solid horse. Probably more of a hit-the-board price for underneath, but this is a big price.

Gonna go ahead and switch :12: HEMP HEMP HURRAY to a 'C' (unlikely unknown). I liked his work with Ultima D. Ultima D actually waited on him a bit, but my emphasis here involves the fact that he demonstrated some style in this work. Should drift up in price, and like I said, this one bothers me.


9. ENCUMBERED - 15/1 ML, Seems to be outclassed here. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

12. HEMP HEMP HURRAY - 8/1 ML, This horse bothers me. I'm tempted to call this one an unlikely-unknown 'c'. Only thing I don't love is his [need to press the pace, and that he has] come from sprints. Deeper waters. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

azeri98
11-02-2017, 07:53 PM
I have watched the 2 racing days at Del Mar, so far if you are not close to the pace in dirt races you have no chance

Redboard
11-02-2017, 08:16 PM
I have watched the 2 racing days at Del Mar, so far if you are not close to the pace in dirt races you have no chance

How's the turf course treating speed horses?

Parkview_Pirate
11-02-2017, 09:43 PM
Race 1: no opinion

Race 2: Looks wide open. Lean :3: Record Highs as dangerous, if he can put away the other speed in the race without too much effort. Will probably be about 5-1. Like :4: Temple Keys closing late to pick up a slice.

Race 3: # :12: Mesa Sky (clever name) (well, not really)

Race 4: no opinion

Race 5: Hmm. Tough. Looks chalky. Maybe :8: Dressed In Hermes. Has the look of a plug who might like 14 furlongs. Sentimental about :1: Archanova, as his win last year at Kee at 43-1 got me in the NHC, but 4-1 an iffy price.

Race 6: :2: Happily romps at 2-1. Wide open after that, so tri and super might pay okay. Leaning 4-5-9-13-14 with chances.

Race 7: :6: Mor Spirit looks tough, likes to win at odds-on. Should be 7-5. Bet this plug in the Derby last year, and he took the scenic route out of the 17 hole. Maybe :8: Accelerate gives him a run for his money.

Race 8: Very interesting race. Can make a case for most of them. Looks like a race to wheel "ALL" in a pick 3, and an extra ticket with horses below 10-1. Lean :2: Untamed Dolphin as my top choice.

Race 9: Looks chalky, as usual. Might try to get :7: Paradise Woods there, if she looks okay on the track and goes off at at least 6-1.

Race 10: Like :9: Long Hot Summer on top, but a pretty competitive and chalky looking race. Gonna maybe see if longer shots :3: Instant Reflex and :8: Little Jude can be in the tri.

Not a bad card, though nothing at a price gets me too excited.

I predict no rain, the pick 6 doesn't carry over, and I make $57 profit.

Saturday's card of course looks awesome, though the Classic looks like a toss up between chalks Arrogate and Gun Runner. Will probably take West Coast to beat them, but wouldn't be shocked if Aidan O'Brien sneaks one of those 3YOs (War Decree, Churchill) into the mix.

Redboard
11-02-2017, 10:23 PM
1.BEST PERFORMANCE - 12/1 ML, More of a price to hit the board than a win contender. Two back ran slightly against the grain. Last time ran nearly as well as the Chad Brown filly. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

2.HAPPILY - 9/2 ML, Strong record. Looked good visually last time in the French race. The only question I can even come up with is whether she will like a harder surface. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'A' (win contender).

3.NOW YOU'RE TALKING - 30/1 ML, Looks like a tremendous value. She will love the mile distance. Probably wants to run counter clockwise(not a major factor in my decision, but could be a nice bonus). As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'B' (needs favorable trip). Tempted to key in vertical exotics.

4.MADELINE - 20/1 ML, Love that she's stretching out to a mile in the US at a big price. She's not as good as NOW YOU'RE TALKING, but she's also a good value. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown).

5.ULTIMA D - 12/1 ML, Big step up in class. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

6.ORBULUTION - 20/1 ML, Shouldn't be in the race. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

7.CAPLA TEMPTRESS - 6/1 ML, Short on value if ml is true. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely) Would include underneath on coverage verticals.

8.SIGNIFICANT FORM - 8/1 ML, Solid horse from a top barn. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'B' (needs favorable trip).

9.FATALE BERE - 9/1 ML, All out to win minor stake last time. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

10.SEPTEMBER - 6/1 ML, Solid horse from a top barn. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'B' (needs favorable trip).

11.RUSHING FALL - 7/2 ML, Good kick @ Kee. Probably Brown's 'a' horse. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'A' (win contender).

12.DIXIE MOON - 20/1 ML, Looks to be outclassed. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

13.JULIET CAPULET - 12/1 ML, She will be a fair price and is a little bit scary. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown).

14.MOON DASH - 15/1 ML, Looks to be outclassed. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

two 'a's , three 'b's, and two 'c's... This is a deep race.


Agree with your two A's . Nobody is going to beat both of those fillies.

The question here is who's going to be third & fourth. I would move :1: BEST PERFORMANCE up to a B , with the first time lasix angle.

jocko699
11-02-2017, 10:37 PM
How's the turf course treating speed horses?

They have raced the last 2 days 30-feet from the rail, tomorrow and Saturday will be at 0-feet. That being said it will take a "monstrous" effort to win on the front end. Highland Reel will have a difficult trip if he does not rate IMO.

azeri98
11-02-2017, 10:57 PM
How's the turf course treating speed horses?

Wednesday speed on the turf held, today it didn't

GMB@BP
11-03-2017, 12:26 AM
Turf course has played like it always does, you go to fast closers will likely win, set a moderate pace and you will likely win.

While I do agree that front end horses have had an advantage I would caution that the winners have figured for the most part and its not like we have seen burning duels and some 20/1 shot go on with it.

I dont think closing from the clouds will work, but it never really has at del mar, and certainly did not this summer. The times are much faster.

GMB@BP
11-03-2017, 12:29 AM
I really dont get much out of the Friday BC card usually.

I am not great at figuring out which 2yo grass horses is talented and will trip out among 14 entrants....a marathon race that really has no handicapping value.

I do like the two dirt races but the multis are dead to me.

Afleet
11-03-2017, 12:41 AM
Watched Masar's races and wasn't that impressed

maliksealy210
11-03-2017, 12:42 AM
I have watched the 2 racing days at Del Mar, so far if you are not close to the pace in dirt races you have no chance

It is amazing to watch race after race there with such strung out fields. They could run an 870 race and the winner would be in front by 15 lengths the way the track seems to be playing.

linrom1
11-03-2017, 02:34 AM
P-4 Comments
Key Players

Race 6
:10:September should like the firmer turf
:8: Significant Form overpowered Rymska in a workout

Race 7
:8: Accelerate, towers over this field
:5: Awesome Slew, the horse is turning into a real good runner

Race 8
:1: Mendelssohn is entered in this race to win. THIS IS NOT a horse bred for dirt like many experts are claiming because he is half to Beholder, so what?

Race 9
:3: Stellar Wind is no match for the rest

plainolebill
11-03-2017, 02:56 AM
#1 Best Performance started from the 8 hole in the Miss Grillo - I don't bet NY tracks often but IIRC outside posts in routes on the inner turf are disadvantaged - is that correct?

Redboard
11-03-2017, 09:36 AM
P-4 Comments
Key Players



Race 9
:3: Stellar Wind is no match for the rest

I'm confused, do you mean that Stellar Wind is going to win, and that the rest of the field is no match for her? In the "Best Bet" thread you said that Elate was your Friday pick.

Redboard
11-03-2017, 10:08 AM
1. MENDELSSOHN - 8/1 ML, I wasn't crazy about this one. Tempted to make a 'c' for the connections. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

2. UNTAMED DOMAIN - 8/1 ML, Doesn't seem to be very talented. Tempted to make a 'c' for the connections. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

3. SANDS OF MALI - 30/1 ML, I love that he's stretching out. I love that he's coming off of a troubled trip where he was bet. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'C' (unlikely unknown) May consider an underneath key in a tri or super.

4. CATHOLIC BOY - 12/1 ML, Solid horse. I'm guessing that he's not top class. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

5. BECKFORD - 8/1 ML, Love that he's stretching out at a good price, but I'm not sure if he's a top contender. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown)

6. MASAR - 9/2 ML, I don't have a good understanding of this horse. Qatar Prix didn't wow me. Great company lines. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown). I may upgrade to a 'B'

7. JAMES GARFIELD - 6/1 ML, I don't have a good understanding of this horse. Great company lines. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown). I may upgrade to a 'B'

8. VOTING CONTROL - 8/1 ML, Loved Pilgrim Stakes effort. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'A' (win contender)

9. ENCUMBERED - 15/1 ML, Seems to be outclassed here. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

10. FLAMEAWAY -20/1 ML, As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

11. SNAPPER SINCLAIR - 15/1 ML, Intriguing. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

12. HEMP HEMP HURRAY - 8/1 ML, This horse bothers me. I'm tempted to call this one an unlikely-unknown 'c'. Only thing I don't love is his pressing style, that has come from sprints. Deeper waters. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

13. MY BOY JACK - 8/1 ML, Nice run in the Zuma Beach. Figures to be outclassed today. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

14. RAJASINGHE - 30/ML, Seems to be one of the weaker foreign shippers. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

A race pretty-much devoid of speed with no need-the-lead types. A few pressers :12: , :6: & :1: ( and :15: if he runs).

:12: HEMP HEMP HURRAY has got my attention too. He got caught at Woodbine, where I believe, it's hard to wire the field( any Woodbine turf players can confirm this?). Notice how he won his first two races, on or near the lead, true they were sprints, but I like the speed stretching out angle. If the turf course cooperates, he could be hard to catch.

But if :15: enters the fray, that angle is dead.

linrom1
11-03-2017, 10:56 AM
I'm confused, do you mean that Stellar Wind is going to win, and that the rest of the field is no match for her? In the "Best Bet" thread you said that Elate was your Friday pick.

Yeah.....In a P-4, Stellar Wind is the best choice. I would single her and go deeper in other legs. This race is 'tough' as a case can be made for 5 of these, so I am keeping it simple and going with proven horse. I can't single Elate here, but I can Stellar Wind!

When I said that Elate was my best bet, I didn't expect her to be one of the 3 co-favorites at 2 to 3-1. But I will bet Elate in Distaff/Classic DD with Collected.

Sorry for the confusion.

Tom
11-03-2017, 11:17 AM
I think the Distaff this years is outstanding.
I am hoping a lot of money goes on those who were too afraid to race in recent months. That 9th furlong is going to expose those not properly prepared for a top class race.

LemonSoupKid
11-03-2017, 11:21 AM
I'm focusing on the 5 and 6 in this race , I agree that it is a great race especially to end the multi race wagers

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 01:10 PM
#1 Best Performance started from the 8 hole in the Miss Grillo - I don't bet NY tracks often but IIRC outside posts in routes on the inner turf are disadvantaged - is that correct?

It can be a disadvantage.

I re-watched that race, and looked at trakus.

She had to assume a deep-stalking/closing position because of the break.

I don't think she was going to be on the pace anyway, but she didn't have other options.
She was a bit wide, but only ran 8 more feet than the winner Significant Form(both were wider than the rest of the field).

Could be some value.

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 01:24 PM
A race pretty-much devoid of speed with no need-the-lead types. A few pressers :12: , :6: & :1: ( and :15: if he runs).

:12: HEMP HEMP HURRAY has got my attention too. He got caught at Woodbine, where I believe, it's hard to wire the field( any Woodbine turf players can confirm this?). Notice how he won his first two races, on or near the lead, true they were sprints, but I like the speed stretching out angle. If the turf course cooperates, he could be hard to catch.

But if :15: enters the fray, that angle is dead.

Good insight.

You make a huge point about the race shape.
Have to use Hemp.


Similar thought upgrades Archanova in the Marathon.

Hard Aces, Destin and Archanova ought to be in the cat-bird seat unless someone else can really make up ground in a big effort.

Afleet
11-03-2017, 01:42 PM
1.BEST PERFORMANCE - 12/1 ML, More of a price to hit the board than a win contender. Two back ran slightly against the grain. Last time ran nearly as well as the Chad Brown filly. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

2.HAPPILY - 9/2 ML, Strong record. Looked good visually last time in the French race. The only question I can even come up with is whether she will like a harder surface. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'A' (win contender).

3.NOW YOU'RE TALKING - 30/1 ML, Looks like a tremendous value. She will love the mile distance. Probably wants to run counter clockwise(not a major factor in my decision, but could be a nice bonus). As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'B' (needs favorable trip). Tempted to key in vertical exotics.

4.MADELINE - 20/1 ML, Love that she's stretching out to a mile in the US at a big price. She's not as good as NOW YOU'RE TALKING, but she's also a good value. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown).

5.ULTIMA D - 12/1 ML, Big step up in class. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

6.ORBULUTION - 20/1 ML, Shouldn't be in the race. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

7.CAPLA TEMPTRESS - 6/1 ML, Short on value if ml is true. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely) Would include underneath on coverage verticals.

8.SIGNIFICANT FORM - 8/1 ML, Solid horse from a top barn. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'B' (needs favorable trip).

9.FATALE BERE - 9/1 ML, All out to win minor stake last time. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

10.SEPTEMBER - 6/1 ML, Solid horse from a top barn. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'B' (needs favorable trip).

11.RUSHING FALL - 7/2 ML, Good kick @ Kee. Probably Brown's 'a' horse. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'A' (win contender).

12.DIXIE MOON - 20/1 ML, Looks to be outclassed. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

13.JULIET CAPULET - 12/1 ML, She will be a fair price and is a little bit scary. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown).

14.MOON DASH - 15/1 ML, Looks to be outclassed. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

two 'a's , three 'b's, and two 'c's... This is a deep race.

Rushing Falls sheet#'s don't tower over these like her odds will suggest. Going w/September for the upset

Afleet
11-03-2017, 01:51 PM
No one seems to like Sharp Azteca may go overlaid and he is my pick.

Lemon Drop Husker
11-03-2017, 01:54 PM
Rushing Falls sheet#'s don't tower over these like her odds will suggest. Going w/September for the upset


Game Day!

Wish I knew how to post pics on here. Bix seats are on the freaking finish line!

Love Happily. . :headbanger:

Mulerider
11-03-2017, 01:57 PM
No one seems to like Sharp Azteca may go overlaid and he is my pick.

I'm on him.

azeri98
11-03-2017, 02:02 PM
Actully no, a lot of horses on the Woodbine turf course win from the lead or just off, you would think with the long stretch it would favor closers but it doesn't

Afleet
11-03-2017, 02:07 PM
Game Day!

Wish I knew how to post pics on here. Bix seats are on the freaking finish line!

Love Happily. . :headbanger:

Have a good time! Happily has a fantastic pedigree, but like Septembers pedigree a little better

Lemon Drop Husker
11-03-2017, 03:02 PM
Have a good time! Happily has a fantastic pedigree, but like Septembers pedigree a little better

I'm all good with a September/Happily exacta. :ThmbUp:

JohnGalt1
11-03-2017, 03:30 PM
My $20/40 win/place bets Friday, or horses I like if the odds are high enough, are:

1) :6: Hinx

2) :2: Fritz Johansen and:11: Ritzy AP both to win

3) :2: City of Light

4) pass

5) :3: Destin

6) pass

7) :3: Sharp Azteca and :6: Mor Spirit both to win

8) pass

9) pass

10) :5: Vigor

Most of my selections are in the top 3 of the Performance Class Ratings and top 3 of pace/speed ratings with no form defects.

bisket
11-03-2017, 05:20 PM
Funny Robert your choice in the distaff reflects mine. we seem to frequently be on the same page. Although I haven't been around lately. I'm waiting for race time to see how I'll play it. Your comment on Madeline in Juvy reflects my opinion of her too. I see a horse with long odds making the top 3. So this'll be my big play today. I don't see anyway you can contemplate Happily not competing for the win. I also like Gosden's Juliet Capulet. That's where most of the money will be, but I'll decide on which Americans might make the box at race time. I was supposed to be at the cup this weekend but I had to cancel the trip.

plainolebill
11-03-2017, 05:26 PM
It can be a disadvantage.

I re-watched that race, and looked at trakus.

She had to assume a deep-stalking/closing position because of the break.

I don't think she was going to be on the pace anyway, but she didn't have other options.
She was a bit wide, but only ran 8 more feet than the winner Significant Form(both were wider than the rest of the field).

Could be some value.

Thanks Robert, I'd be reluctant to bet the filly down on rail in a 14 horse field. Maybe underneath.

bisket
11-03-2017, 05:26 PM
referring to Madeline. I always like to see a horse be competitive in a sprint, and run evenly. That's usually an indication that the runner needs a few furlongs for the field to back up to them.

plainolebill
11-03-2017, 06:08 PM
In the Juv F turf I'm going to use both Brown fillies, the Clement and front running Dixie Moon.

Robert Fischer
11-03-2017, 06:42 PM
In the Juv F turf I'm going to use both Brown fillies, the Clement and front running Dixie Moon.
Nice call.

iceknight
11-03-2017, 07:36 PM
R8 Juv turf
:8: Voting Control is an improving one. Going with him


R9 Distaff
:4: Abel Tasman ranks right up there, but I am feel she is ready to fire a big one now. Good class. WP and also Exacta with :7: Paradise Woods

Tom
11-03-2017, 08:59 PM
Steller Wind huge underlay at any price - she had, IMHO 0 chance of winning that race. But dead last? Guess the decision to keep her on the shelf for 97 days was petty stupid in hindsight.

And that owner of the winner - a given he has no integrity, but the old fool can't even TALK!!! Did he play football and not wear a helmet? Guy is a jerk.

fellowmen
11-03-2017, 10:10 PM
Does anyone know where to find the distaff/classic double will pays?

plainolebill
11-03-2017, 10:44 PM
Does anyone know where to find the distaff/classic double will pays?

Twinspires has a separate track listed as Breeder's Cup double that shows the will pays.

GMB@BP
11-03-2017, 11:50 PM
Steller Wind huge underlay at any price - she had, IMHO 0 chance of winning that race. But dead last? Guess the decision to keep her on the shelf for 97 days was petty stupid in hindsight.

And that owner of the winner - a given he has no integrity, but the old fool can't even TALK!!! Did he play football and not wear a helmet? Guy is a jerk.

I took the move from the owner/trainer as a really bad sign, these owners have never been afraid to run them and to not run in the Zenyatta, it sounded good but seemed a bit odd.

She is better than last, had to be something wrong.

Afleet
11-04-2017, 01:34 AM
Have a good time! Happily has a fantastic pedigree, but like Septembers pedigree a little better

September got left at the gate and runs third