TRACK PHANTOM - Del Mar Play of the Day

[Track Phantom]

11/1/17

DMR 7TH
LET IT RIDE 75K, 1M TURF

3 KITTEN’S CAT 7-2
6 MASTER MERION 5-2
2 HOLIDAY STONE 3-1
5 HARBOUR MASTER 7-2

PICK: 3 KITTEN’S CAT (7-2)
Has excuses in his last 3. On synthetic 2 back and a yielding turf course at the quirky Kentucky Downs track in his last start. He’s 2x stakes winner but hasn’t won since sire’s namesake stakes at GP. Projects a perfect trip w/ Leparoux.

VALUE: 2 HOLIDAY STONE (3-1)
The pace of the stakes at KD last was a quick one and not surprisingly this one tired a bit late. Don’t think he’ll have to have the lead here and, in fact, might be better suited to rate a bit. He gets a top Cal turf rider. Will be finishing late.

A) 3,6 B) 2,5 C) 1,4

[Track Phantom]

DMR 11/3/17

DEL MAR RACE 6 (2:25)
JUV FILLIES TURF-G1, $1M, 1M TURF

10 SEPTEMBER 6-1
2 HAPPILY 9-2
7 CAPLA TEMPTRESS 6-1
11 RUSHING FALL 7-2

1ST: 10 SEPTEMBER (6-1)
Sire was 2x Japan horse of the year ’05 and ’06. Dam won 4 Group 1 turf races. She seemed to improve with the extra furlong and just exploded late to miss by a nose. Trainer is having a fantastic season (26 G1’s). Turned the tables on Magical (in front of her 2 back) as that one was 4th in her last start. First Lasix.

2ND: 2 HAPPILY (9-2)
All 4 of her sibs won turf stakes and led by 4x G1 winner Gleneagles. Her dam is a full sister to Giants Causeway winner of $3M and one of the world’s top sires. She’s won back to back Group 1’s and beat the top choice in Ire. She did beat our top choice in the Juv Turf last out, Masar. She’s getting Lasix for 1st time.

3RD: 7 CAPLA TEMPTRESS (6-1)
Filly is 3 for 4, her only loss coming in a G3 two back when she was finishing w/ interest. Got in tight in the G1 at WO in her last start but found room and won with style. The pace was actually fairly slow and she was the only one closing any ground. Mott got her a work on the grass course here at DMR. Rolling late.

A) 2,10 B) 1,7,11,14 C) 3,4,8,9,12

HISTORICAL TRENDS (9 Years)
Chad Brown has 3 victories and 2 close runner-up finishes in 9 years this race has been run (56%). He won it last year with 7-1 shot New Money Honey. West Coast based runners hit the board just twice, 0 wins. Euros won this in ’12 and ’13 with Irish breds. The Ms. Grillo prep in NY produced 4 winners of this race.

[Track Phantom]

DMR 11/4/17

DEL MAR RACE 4 (12:00)
JUVENILE FILLIES-G1, $2M, 1M 1/16 DIRT

12 CALEDONIA ROAD 15-1 Smith
13 SEPARATIONOFPWRS 4-1 Ortiz
7 MOONSHINE MEMORIES 7-2 Prat
10 MAYA MALIBU 20-1 Castellano

1ST: 12 CALEDONIA ROAD (15-1)
Banking on the strength of the G1 Frizette as top 2 selections were one-two in that race (and far clear from 3rd). She outran her odds both times for sharp trainer. Winner got the better trip in the Frizette but both finished similar in final furlong. Gets HOF rider who has won 25 Breeders’ Cup races in his career. Tough race but seems to set up for a big priced filly.

2ND: 13 SEPARATIONOFPOWERS (4-1)
Beat the top pick in the G1 Frizette at BEL. That race has produced 7 winners of this race in last 23 years. Obviously have to respect anything that Brown puts on the track. Outside post isn’t ideal but does have a world class rider aboard. She co-owns the top fig with two others in here, a number she hit twice in 3 starts. Trip is the big question from this widest post.

3RD: 7 MOONSHINE MEMORIES (7-2)
Nice looking win in the G1 at Santa Anita when she stretched out for the first time. Odd running of that race, 4 of 8 fillies eased. She was an expensive filly, getting 650k. Dam half to the ‘97 BC Juvenile winner, Favorite Trick (also champion two-year old). So. Cal. has produced 8 winners of this race since ’93. The G1 she exits was the prep race of the last 2 winners.

A) 7,12,13 B) 1,6,8,9 C) 3,4,10,11

HISTORICAL TRENDS (33 Years)
Favorites have won just north of 50% in this but did see 33-1 Champagne Room win last year and 61-1 winner, Take Charge Brandi in ‘14. Speed has been dominant. 7 of the last 12 winners went all the way on the lead, 4 won pressing in 2nd (11 of 12, 92%). Off-the-pace winner was on a synth SA course in 08.

[JayTris07]

DMR 11/4/17

DEL MAR RACE 4 (12:00)
JUVENILE FILLIES-G1, $2M, 1M 1/16 DIRT

12 CALEDONIA ROAD 15-1 Smith
13 SEPARATIONOFPWRS 4-1 Ortiz
7 MOONSHINE MEMORIES 7-2 Prat
10 MAYA MALIBU 20-1 Castellano

1ST: 12 CALEDONIA ROAD (15-1)
Banking on the strength of the G1 Frizette as top 2 selections were one-two in that race (and far clear from 3rd). She outran her odds both times for sharp trainer. Winner got the better trip in the Frizette but both finished similar in final furlong. Gets HOF rider who has won 25 Breeders’ Cup races in his career. Tough race but seems to set up for a big priced filly.

2ND: 13 SEPARATIONOFPOWERS (4-1)
Beat the top pick in the G1 Frizette at BEL. That race has produced 7 winners of this race in last 23 years. Obviously have to respect anything that Brown puts on the track. Outside post isn’t ideal but does have a world class rider aboard. She co-owns the top fig with two others in here, a number she hit twice in 3 starts. Trip is the big question from this widest post.

3RD: 7 MOONSHINE MEMORIES (7-2)
Nice looking win in the G1 at Santa Anita when she stretched out for the first time. Odd running of that race, 4 of 8 fillies eased. She was an expensive filly, getting 650k. Dam half to the ‘97 BC Juvenile winner, Favorite Trick (also champion two-year old). So. Cal. has produced 8 winners of this race since ’93. The G1 she exits was the prep race of the last 2 winners.

A) 7,12,13 B) 1,6,8,9 C) 3,4,10,11

HISTORICAL TRENDS (33 Years)
Favorites have won just north of 50% in this but did see 33-1 Champagne Room win last year and 61-1 winner, Take Charge Brandi in ‘14. Speed has been dominant. 7 of the last 12 winners went all the way on the lead, 4 won pressing in 2nd (11 of 12, 92%). Off-the-pace winner was on a synth SA course in 08.



Good Luck Phantom, :ThmbUp: