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linrom1
10-29-2017, 05:13 PM
It's this time of the year when 'insiders' in racing look to set themselves up for the year: money for winter vacations, etc by touting false favorites so they can create tremendous value for their own bets.

I am ready to listen, read and watch to ferret out these false betting favorites.

Right now I am getting a bit of impression that FREE DROP WILLY is being touted, but, it's early.

What horses do you think are being advanced as false favorites?

Lemon Drop Husker
10-29-2017, 05:35 PM
Not sure I can believe my eyes, but World Approval is the 2/1 favorite offshore/Euro in the Mile.

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/international/breeders-cup-mile/winner

Afleet
10-29-2017, 07:15 PM
Not sure I can believe my eyes, but World Approval is the 2/1 favorite offshore/Euro in the Mile.

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/international/breeders-cup-mile/winner

I'm not sure what to do w/World Approval-think he is going to lose but don't know why

Afleet
10-29-2017, 07:24 PM
Not sure I can believe my eyes, but World Approval is the 2/1 favorite offshore/Euro in the Mile.

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/international/breeders-cup-mile/winner

tried to register w/Betfair and was blocked, figured to be blocked, but was just curious

Mc990
10-29-2017, 07:27 PM
Not sure I can believe my eyes, but World Approval is the 2/1 favorite offshore/Euro in the Mile.

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/international/breeders-cup-mile/winner

This is one of the worst Mile fields in a long time. Curious to see posts and who draws in but Heart to Heart could easily wire or sit a pocket trip at a big price. Numbers stack up very favorably.

Gun Runner, if he goes favored is "false". No logical reason he should be shorter than Arrogate.

Drefong will be overbet. Hope someone can put pressure on early.

Lemon Drop Husker
10-29-2017, 07:29 PM
I'm not sure what to do w/World Approval-think he is going to lose but don't know why

Ribchester is a monster in that race.

Throw in all the other speed of Blackjackcat, Heart to Heart, Home of the Brave, and potentially Midnight Storm, and WA will have to pass more horses than he ever has in his entire life to win a race, or try to wire the best field he has ever faced. Can't see it happening.

Afleet
10-29-2017, 07:43 PM
Ribchester is a monster in that race.

Throw in all the other speed of Blackjackcat, Heart to Heart, Home of the Brave, and potentially Midnight Storm, and WA will have to pass more horses than he ever has in his entire life to win a race, or try to wire the best field he has ever faced. Can't see it happening.

At least Heart to Heart will give you a thrill-you know he is going to the lead and will be big odds. Sudeois may be overlaid. Decorated Knight would be interesting here but probably goes in the turf

Lemon Drop Husker
10-29-2017, 07:46 PM
At least Heart to Heart will give you a thrill-you know he is going to the lead and will be big odds. Sudeois may be overlaid

Suedois paid me last out. I don't have to chase him this time after his perfect trip, perfect set up race last out. :)

jefftune
10-29-2017, 08:17 PM
Ribchester is a monster in that race.

Throw in all the other speed of Blackjackcat, Heart to Heart, eatHome of the Brave, and potentially Midnight Storm, and WA will have to pass more horses than he ever has in his entire life to win a race, or try to wire the best field he has ever faced. Can't see it happening.

I'm hearing nothing but good things about Ribchester. Thinkin he's the one to beat.

Afleet
10-29-2017, 09:03 PM
Interested to see how Mor Spirit gets bet. He will have the fastest Beyer and probably fastest sheets number of any horse running BC weekend, but w/a lengthy layoff

Lemon Drop Husker
10-29-2017, 09:17 PM
Interested to see how Mor Spirit gets bet. He will have the fastest Beyer and probably fastest sheets number of any horse running BC weekend, but w/a lengthy layoff

You're right. It is Practically a Joke.

linrom1
10-30-2017, 01:11 AM
Take a look at Watchmaker's BC(snake) odds. He has Highland Reel at 5-1?:D Collected at 6-1.
I bet he is already counting his money.:eek:

http://www.drf.com/events/breeders-cup-classic

LemonSoupKid
10-31-2017, 11:09 PM
Take a look at Watchmaker's BC(snake) odds. He has Highland Reel at 5-1?:D Collected at 6-1.
I bet he is already counting his money.:eek:

http://www.drf.com/events/breeders-cup-classic

Watchmaker?

:pound:

jocko699
10-31-2017, 11:14 PM
Watchmaker?

:pound:

Agree, typically I toss Watchmaker's picks.:lol::lol:

LemonSoupKid
10-31-2017, 11:19 PM
Agree, typically I toss Watchmaker's picks.:lol::lol:

Seriously, not to pile on (though I did make a thread a while back on precisely this topic, lol) but I almost always toss his, too. Can't recall a big race he's ever won.

Afleet
10-31-2017, 11:38 PM
World Approval could not have gotten a better draw right outside two horses that will be sent. Should sit the perfect trip if good enough. Ribchester sheet#s are not unbeatable

bisket
11-01-2017, 12:24 AM
It's this time of the year when 'insiders' in racing look to set themselves up for the year: money for winter vacations, etc by touting false favorites so they can create tremendous value for their own bets.

I am ready to listen, read and watch to ferret out these false betting favorites.

Right now I am getting a bit of impression that FREE DROP WILLY is being touted, but, it's early.

What horses do you think are being advanced as false favorites?

Really? you've got much more invested in message board discussion than actual betting. Get a grip.

LemonSoupKid
11-01-2017, 01:44 PM
Seriously, not to pile on (though I did make a thread a while back on precisely this topic, lol) but I almost always toss his, too. Can't recall a big race he's ever won.

Here's Mike's Saturday late pick 4. Kudos to him for at least putting it out there:

1, 4, 5*, 6*, 8, 10*, 12* with 11 with 3*, 4*, 5*, 6, 10, 12*, 13 with 1**, 2, 5*

He loves Arrogate. I think he might be great value since he's sputtered recently and there at Del Mar, but his endorsement gives me pause :p

reckless
11-01-2017, 06:15 PM
I think Steller Wind ranks up there as a very vulnerable favorite in the Distaff, fwiw.

señorclipclop
11-01-2017, 09:34 PM
Masar at 9/2, depending on what Happily and September do in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

LemonSoupKid
11-01-2017, 09:47 PM
I think Steller Wind ranks up there as a very vulnerable favorite in the Distaff, fwiw.

I agree with this and likely will try to take advantage of it on my P4; 'capping the Friday card tonight.

jocko699
11-01-2017, 09:50 PM
I agree with this and likely will try to take advantage of it on my P4; 'capping the Friday card tonight.

SW is such a nice horse but I agree. At a mile and an eighth I think she is so vulnerable. Elate is the wise guy play but I will make a stand with Forever Unbridled.

LemonSoupKid
11-02-2017, 11:49 AM
SW is such a nice horse but I agree. At a mile and an eighth I think she is so vulnerable. Elate is the wise guy play but I will make a stand with Forever Unbridled.

Sounds like me you and a LOT of others

This race will depend on price. That's the only thing I don't like about P4-5-6 wagers ...

jay68802
11-02-2017, 04:22 PM
Friday Race #10: SKMaddy GR-3 5 F on the Turf.

M-L favorite :4: Firsthand Report is one of the worst favorites on the card. The highest speed figure this girl has run is at 1 1/16. This race has a ton of speed in it and the last time she saw a pace like this at this distance she gave up. there are 4 horses in here that I like.

:1: So Sweetitiz 6-1 Has shown the ability to handle the pace and still finish well. But the layoff is really bothersome.

:3: Instant Reflex 15-1 1st race of her life showed the ability to handle the pace. Stretched out in last and might have proved she is a sprinter at this moment, but has potential.

:9: Long Hot Summer 9-2 One of only 2 runners in this race that has shown ability to run off the pace. Has the speed figures to win and gets the edge to be on top.

:10: Street Surrender 8-1 The "other" off the pace runner in here, but has really shown to be a distance horse and not a sprinter. The fact that she just might come running at the end makes her a contender here.

zico20
11-02-2017, 08:58 PM
I'm hearing nothing but good things about Ribchester. Thinkin he's the one to beat.

Ribchester wins if he runs his race, he is so much superior to this field.

jocko699
11-02-2017, 09:16 PM
Friday Race #10: SKMaddy GR-3 5 F on the Turf.

M-L favorite :4: Firsthand Report is one of the worst favorites on the card. The highest speed figure this girl has run is at 1 1/16. This race has a ton of speed in it and the last time she saw a pace like this at this distance she gave up. there are 4 horses in here that I like.

:1: So Sweetitiz 6-1 Has shown the ability to handle the pace and still finish well. But the layoff is really bothersome.

:3: Instant Reflex 15-1 1st race of her life showed the ability to handle the pace. Stretched out in last and might have proved she is a sprinter at this moment, but has potential.

:9: Long Hot Summer 9-2 One of only 2 runners in this race that has shown ability to run off the pace. Has the speed figures to win and gets the edge to be on top.

:10: Street Surrender 8-1 The "other" off the pace runner in here, but has really shown to be a distance horse and not a sprinter. The fact that she just might come running at the end makes her a contender here.

I believe :5: Vigor 5-1 will run huge tomorrow.

linrom1
11-03-2017, 01:56 AM
I believe :5: Vigor 5-1 will run huge tomorrow.

It's a single for me in a saver p3.

Afleet
11-03-2017, 01:48 PM
Ribchester wins if he runs his race, he is so much superior to this field.

not according to the sheets

Valuist
11-04-2017, 03:28 AM
Drefong is the phony favorite, IMO. Only two starts this year, and tossed his rider in one of them. Caught a field with a lack of early speed and rode a good rail in the Forego. There is no logical reason to bet this horse.

Tom
11-04-2017, 09:49 AM
Agree - Drefong.
If he was anything, why only two starts in a year?

Vinnie
11-04-2017, 10:40 AM
I concur with you gents. Drefong could be a bit dressed up, however, he has a superb work tab of late. If somehow he pops the gate and gets the front he could be difficult to run down. Love Imperial Hint in here. Has shown the ability to rate and I have heard that he is literally coming out of his skin earlier this week. He is my bet of the day along with Suedois in R9... Hopefully get 9/2 or right about there on him as I believe with any luck he may be slightly overlooked as the possibly the third or fourth choice in this group come race time.

GMB@BP
11-04-2017, 02:34 PM
Agree - Drefong.
If he was anything, why only two starts in a year?

Two starts is the new 10...see Unbridled Forever

Tom
11-04-2017, 03:06 PM
2 is 10...yeah.

That is why it has been many years since we had more than a couple of real champions on the track. It is the breed....not the t-bred breed, the PEOPLE breed. Today's owners and trainers pretty much suck.

burnsy
11-04-2017, 05:18 PM
I know one thing, if one is counting on a 3/5 in the BC Turf Sprint. Its time get your head examined. I'm not sure about this sprinter either.

bisket
11-04-2017, 09:30 PM
lol they're all false favorites today....

burnsy
11-04-2017, 09:46 PM
lol they're all false favorites today....

Yeah, but c'mon. Turf sprint for a Euro 3/5? A two year old 3/5 and that 3 yo sprint filly was never in a race like that.........Bailey called her a "lock".

I can see Highland Reel but a few of the others were way over bet......these fields are too contentious.

bisket
11-04-2017, 10:16 PM
Yeah, but c'mon. Turf sprint for a Euro 3/5? A two year old 3/5 and that 3 yo sprint filly was never in a race like that.........Bailey called her a "lock".

I can see Highland Reel but a few of the others were way over bet......these fields are too contentious.

Most people on race days like this just bet with the rest of the crowd. Horses can have similar data and one will be 3-1 and the other 20-1. Many times it's really minor drawbacks that make the difference in those odds. Experienced bettors are accustomed to betting their own states product, and aren't as skilled at betting fields of horses that have not seen each other before. Especially in 2 year old races, and turf fields.

Afleet
11-14-2017, 12:42 AM
SW is such a nice horse but I agree. At a mile and an eighth I think she is so vulnerable. Elate is the wise guy play but I will make a stand with Forever Unbridled.

belated nice call!