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Secondbest
10-29-2017, 02:41 PM
I know its early. No final entries, track conditions ,etc. But I looked at the pre-entries and right now and not looking at price, Drefong looks the best bet of the BC races to me.

Afleet
10-29-2017, 04:09 PM
I know its early. No final entries, track conditions ,etc. But I looked at the pre-entries and right now and not looking at price, Drefong looks the best bet of the BC races to me.

should be fast and firm. Hope Drefong draws the rail. I can't see taking a small price in a crapshoot of a race like the BC turf sprint, but that Lady Aurelia looks tough to me.

linrom1
10-29-2017, 04:10 PM
Elate would be my best bet for Friday.

CincyHorseplayer
10-29-2017, 04:19 PM
Anything less than 4-1 could hardly be considered the best bet. The best horse is rarely the best bet.

Road Kill
10-29-2017, 04:39 PM
should be fast and firm. Hope Drefong draws the rail. I can't see taking a small price in a crapshoot of a race like the BC turf sprint, but that Lady Aurelia looks tough to me.

Probably right about Lady Aurelia...but will likely go with Washington DC if he's in because I learned absolutely nothing from last year.

Will stick with Biscuits in the sprint :headbanger:

linrom1
10-29-2017, 04:56 PM
Anything less than 4-1 could hardly be considered the best bet. The best horse is rarely the best bet.

I think I'll make Elate my best horse and bet. I think she will be more than 4-1 as a 4th choice behind Stellar Wind, Unbridled Elaine and Abel Tasman for Friday.

However the BEST bet is going to be Significant Form. She could be better than the Euros and that other Chad Brown flash-in-the pan filly, Rushing Falls.

Lemon Drop Husker
10-29-2017, 05:09 PM
I think I'll make Elate my best horse and bet. I think she will be more than 4-1 as a 4th choice behind Stellar Wind, Unbridled Elaine and Abel Tasman for Friday.

However the BEST bet is going to be Significant Form. She could be better than the Euros and that other Chad Brown flash-in-the pan filly, Rushing Falls.

Significant Form looks pretty damn good, but Happily looks awfully damn impressive herself, and September isn't a slouch by any means. Fatal Bere should get some action and she showed a lot of stuff in the Surfer Girl.

I do like your Significant Form. She made her last look pretty easy, but did get a damn good trip which can be easily attributed to her abilities as well. I kind of like Best Performance's effort in that same race as SF.

Great race to kick off the festivities! :ThmbUp:

Secondbest
10-29-2017, 05:28 PM
Anything less than 4-1 could hardly be considered the best bet. The best horse is rarely the best bet.

I wasn't talking about price. Rather who I thought was the most likely winner. Your right of course that is not necessarily the best wager.

Secondbest
10-29-2017, 05:32 PM
should be fast and firm. Hope Drefong draws the rail. I can't see taking a small price in a crapshoot of a race like the BC turf sprint, but that Lady Aurelia looks tough to me.

If I'm reading the menu right the Turf Sprint and the Sprint bracket a pick four. Now that may be worth a bet ala Ouiji Board and Ghostzapper.

Afleet
10-29-2017, 06:33 PM
I think I'll make Elate my best horse and bet. I think she will be more than 4-1 as a 4th choice behind Stellar Wind, Unbridled Elaine and Abel Tasman for Friday.

However the BEST bet is going to be Significant Form. She could be better than the Euros and that other Chad Brown flash-in-the pan filly, Rushing Falls.

I'm thinking Elate is going to be the 2nd favorite. She seems to be the buzz horse.

letswastemoney
10-29-2017, 07:57 PM
I know its early. No final entries, track conditions ,etc. But I looked at the pre-entries and right now and not looking at price, Drefong looks the best bet of the BC races to me. Takaful will make it hard on Drefong. Not saying Takaful will win, but he has some crazy speed and can make it difficult for the other speed.

Secondbest
10-29-2017, 08:59 PM
Takaful will make it hard on Drefong. Not saying Takaful will win, but he has some crazy speed and can make it difficult for the other speed.

His race in the Forego and subsequent workouts make him in my opinion
very tough to beat.

Lemon Drop Husker
10-29-2017, 09:09 PM
His race in the Forego and subsequent workouts make him in my opinion
very tough to beat.

Love Takaful.

Secondbest
10-29-2017, 09:46 PM
Love Takaful.

Ok. We'll find out next week

GMB@BP
10-29-2017, 10:10 PM
Elate would be my best bet for Friday.

Does Elate go favored in this spot?

Lemon Drop Husker
10-29-2017, 10:13 PM
Does Elate go favored in this spot?

I don't "think" so with Stellar Wind and Forever Unbridled in the field.

Thinking she should be favored, but it is an interesting finale on the Friday card for the Distaff.

Mc990
10-29-2017, 11:06 PM
Does Elate go favored in this spot?

If this were at CD, possibly. Don't like her with the ship.

GMB@BP
10-29-2017, 11:36 PM
If this were at CD, possibly. Don't like her with the ship.

just hearing a lot of steam on her. Stellar wind is 0/2 in this race but she likely goes favored, Forever Unbridled has a bit of the slows and has to run a career best.

I see it 5/2 SW
3/1 Elate
7/2 forever unbridled

7/1 Paradise Woods
12/1 Abel Tasman

Something like that.

Lemon Drop Husker
10-29-2017, 11:53 PM
Does Elate go favored in this spot?

She should.

In form. Best in the race before they go to the gate.

Lemon Drop Husker
10-29-2017, 11:55 PM
just hearing a lot of steam on her. Stellar wind is 0/2 in this race but she likely goes favored, Forever Unbridled has a bit of the slows and has to run a career best.

I see it 5/2 SW
3/1 Elate
7/2 forever unbridled

7/1 Paradise Woods
12/1 Abel Tasman

Something like that.

Good stuff. I believe you are damn close to spot on. :ThmbUp:

Andrick
10-30-2017, 12:11 AM
I don't know about "best bet" as I'm only in the preliminary stages of getting some ideas on how to play the races. But I'm quite interested in playing Nelson in the Juvenile Turf at this point at what should be good odds even though the other O'Brien in the race, US Navy Flag, looks very tough.

Afleet
10-30-2017, 12:18 AM
I don't know about "best bet" as I'm only in the preliminary stages of getting some ideas on how to play the races. But I'm quite interested in playing Nelson in the Juvenile Turf at this point at what should be good odds even though the other O'Brien in the race, US Navy Flag, looks very tough.

Thought I read Nelson wasn't coming

Andrick
10-30-2017, 12:29 AM
Thought I read Nelson wasn't coming

Really? Well, if that's the case then there goes that idea.

CincyHorseplayer
10-30-2017, 12:59 AM
I find I don't need to handicap these races for days and days anymore. The most likely winners require even less thought. For me thinking about this as too much more than any other competitive day of racing is worse than taking it too lightly. I'll do both cards on Wednesday when the final PP's come out. Look it over and make a line on Thursday and that's it. I am excited as hell about these two days and the potential as a fan and as a player but will not over think it to the point of absurdity! Good luck!:ThmbUp:

menifee
10-30-2017, 03:55 AM
Iím really looking forward to betting Imperial Hint. Takaful and Dreifong should go at each other and he should get a nice setup. Dreifong has had two dream setups at the Spa and I didnít think his victory in this race last year was that impressive. I would take IH, Roy H or Takaful before Dreifong.

Fager Fan
10-30-2017, 10:54 AM
I wasn't talking about price. Rather who I thought was the most likely winner. Your right of course that is not necessarily the best wager.

In that case, I'd say the 2yo colt. There's no horse I'd rather own going into the BC from the standpoint of looking head and shoulders above the competition.

Lemon Drop Husker
10-30-2017, 11:05 AM
Iím really looking forward to betting Imperial Hint. Takaful and Dreifong should go at each other and he should get a nice setup. Dreifong has had two dream setups at the Spa and I didnít think his victory in this race last year was that impressive. I would take IH, Roy H or Takaful before Dreifong.

Don't forget about MYB who had a dreadful trip to get 3rd in last year's Sprint.

GMB@BP
10-30-2017, 12:39 PM
Iím really looking forward to betting Imperial Hint. Takaful and Dreifong should go at each other and he should get a nice setup. Dreifong has had two dream setups at the Spa and I didnít think his victory in this race last year was that impressive. I would take IH, Roy H or Takaful before Dreifong.

I think the idea that Defrong cant sit just off it and run just as good a bit of a "hope" situation. Now can he be as effective, maybe not, but I have never heard that he is some kind of run off, just very very fast.

LemonSoupKid
10-30-2017, 02:30 PM
Love Takaful.

I have to respect him, he was close to blowing up my P6 ticket when Practical Joke won in the Jerkens.

LemonSoupKid
10-30-2017, 02:31 PM
She should.

In form. Best in the race before they go to the gate.

It sounds like she clearly likes the track. This track is my biggest handicapping dilemma, have you guys considered that as well?

LemonSoupKid
10-30-2017, 02:36 PM
I find I don't need to handicap these races for days and days anymore. The most likely winners require even less thought. For me thinking about this as too much more than any other competitive day of racing is worse than taking it too lightly. I'll do both cards on Wednesday when the final PP's come out. Look it over and make a line on Thursday and that's it. I am excited as hell about these two days and the potential as a fan and as a player but will not over think it to the point of absurdity! Good luck!:ThmbUp:

Totally agree with this. I'll watch some videos to get the gist of who is in it and what some previous races look like, but it'll be Wednesday for me as well when I take the programs to task.

By the way, anyone getting the drf clocker report?

Lemon Drop Husker
10-30-2017, 02:40 PM
It sounds like she clearly likes the track. This track is my biggest handicapping dilemma, have you guys considered that as well?

Pretty sure the Del Mar track is on everybody's mind.

Much like Saratoga, a ton of horses simply don't take to the track.

An angle we all have to be rewarded or whipped upon.

CincyHorseplayer
10-30-2017, 04:03 PM
Totally agree with this. I'll watch some videos to get the gist of who is in it and what some previous races look like, but it'll be Wednesday for me as well when I take the programs to task.

By the way, anyone getting the drf clocker report?

Yeah I'm just looking at charts and bias information for the prep races today. I'll dig in Wednesday too. Playing Del Mar the last few meets I have a general feel for the types that win here and because of that I am really excited for this BC. Because it is a different track for sure.

exactatom
10-30-2017, 06:14 PM
I love that US Navy Flag has already run 10 times as a 2 year old. Nice foundation, even though little experience going a distance (from memory, no pps in front of me).

The Biscuit
10-30-2017, 06:15 PM
Yeah I'm just looking at charts and bias information for the prep races today. I'll dig in Wednesday too. Playing Del Mar the last few meets I have a general feel for the types that win here and because of that I am really excited for this BC. Because it is a different track for sure.


Does Delmar play like any other track ... you know what i'm asking ... for example ... if horses that have done well at CD ...usually do well at Delmar ???

Thank you for any help Cincy !!!

GMB@BP
10-30-2017, 07:30 PM
Does Delmar play like any other track ... you know what i'm asking ... for example ... if horses that have done well at CD ...usually do well at Delmar ???

Thank you for any help Cincy !!!

I dont think you can use that logic, it was a very different surface this summer and had very few ship ins.

I would say that its a deep and tiring surface now, if you want to compare it to this summers Saratoga that may be far but how it translates no one knows.

We also do not know what cooler weather will do to the track, may make it much less tiring.

I would handicap it straight given guessing on a lot of unknowns.

I know the turf makes it very hard to rally from to far back.

CincyHorseplayer
10-30-2017, 08:27 PM
Does Delmar play like any other track ... you know what i'm asking ... for example ... if horses that have done well at CD ...usually do well at Delmar ???

Thank you for any help Cincy !!!

Without getting into an argumentative theoretical discussion I'll just say that on both surfaces horses with overall ability but with strong finishes can get there at Del Mar. Whereas they could get stranded with mediocre and ineffective runs at Santa Anita. I think in general it's just a fair surface. But we will have to see a few days there to determine that that is indeed the case right now.

CincyHorseplayer
10-30-2017, 08:30 PM
I dont think you can use that logic, it was a very different surface this summer and had very few ship ins.

I would say that its a deep and tiring surface now, if you want to compare it to this summers Saratoga that may be far but how it translates no one knows.

We also do not know what cooler weather will do to the track, may make it much less tiring.

I would handicap it straight given guessing on a lot of unknowns.

I know the turf makes it very hard to rally from to far back.

We all have different definitions of a strong finish on turf and mine is more the the LP published in most pace figure arrays but the big finishers that dominate on all but biased turf courses win here especially and reliably often.

Afleet
10-30-2017, 09:00 PM
Love Takaful.

drew outside of Drefong in the #3 hole

GMB@BP
10-30-2017, 09:01 PM
We all have different definitions of a strong finish on turf and mine is more the the LP published in most pace figure arrays but the big finishers that dominate on all but biased turf courses win here especially and reliably often.

horses can go 22 and 45 and change and still finish, so if your 15 back into the far turn forget about it...the Autem Miss last weekend at SA is a great example.

GMB@BP
10-30-2017, 09:02 PM
drew outside of Drefong in the #3 hole

yea this draw is really going to make it a race were there is almost assuredly going to be a wicked pace.

Afleet
10-30-2017, 09:10 PM
yea this draw is really going to make it a race were there is almost assuredly going to be a wicked pace.

Im really looking forward to this one. Looking forward to the distaff the most

BrentT
10-31-2017, 12:08 AM
These kind of days I always just forget about the pic 3/4s, and go race by race and play tris, supers, you get to look at the odds and go from there. There’s always so much value on these days that you may only need to catch one nice one a day to make a good score, something that’s not there on regular race days.

Secondbest
10-31-2017, 12:22 AM
yea this draw is really going to make it a race were there is almost assuredly going to be a wicked pace.

Not necessarily.Nobody wants to kill their horse early and leave nothing for later. They might go slower early than you expect.

GMB@BP
10-31-2017, 01:20 AM
Not necessarily.Nobody wants to kill their horse early and leave nothing for later. They might go slower early than you expect.

You do understand what will happen to defrong and takaful if they dont send right? They will be relegated to mid pack runners, I dont see that happened, now if both of them are fast enough to clear quickly they could then slow it down but I dont see that. I think this helps a horse like Ransom to the Moon quite a bit.

Afleet
10-31-2017, 01:39 AM
correct that #10 hole per DRF for Takaful

GMB@BP
10-31-2017, 02:37 AM
correct that #10 hole per DRF for Takaful

Big difference, I still see it as a very fast pace, but I wont be surprised if Defrong is sitting in third on the rail.

The Biscuit
10-31-2017, 10:23 AM
:bang:I dont think you can use that logic, it was a very different surface this summer and had very few ship ins.

I would say that its a deep and tiring surface now, if you want to compare it to this summers Saratoga that may be far but how it translates no one knows.

We also do not know what cooler weather will do to the track, may make it much less tiring.

I would handicap it straight given guessing on a lot of unknowns.

I know the turf makes it very hard to rally from to far back.



Thanks bro for your input ... always appreciate the insight .... :popcorn:

spiketoo
10-31-2017, 12:47 PM
Highway Star. ML 15-1. Top and bottom in EBXs.

Secondbest
10-31-2017, 01:46 PM
You do understand what will happen to defrong and takaful if they dont send right? They will be relegated to mid pack runners, I dont see that happened, now if both of them are fast enough to clear quickly they could then slow it down but I dont see that. I think this helps a horse like Ransom to the Moon quite a bit.

Yes I understand that. What I said was they may not run as fast early as we think not that they wouldn't go for the lead. Maybe the half is 44 and4 or 45 not 44and1 or 44 flat for example. i'm forward for the race. Whatever you do, good luck.

LemonSoupKid
10-31-2017, 03:17 PM
pick 4s at the BC pays monster sometimes though bro

Play both is what I say

I would play the pick 6 if it weren't a $2 base wager, unless I LOVE 2 singles.

PoloUK6108
10-31-2017, 03:58 PM
I like Paradise Woods and Battle of Midway. So by Friday I'll have changed my mind and bet neither and one or both will win. :bang:

jay68802
10-31-2017, 04:09 PM
BC Classic:

Going to key the :7:, Churchill in this race. A lot of speed here, and at a ML of 15-1 has a good chance of hitting the board. Just playing in the exacta and tri.

LemonSoupKid
10-31-2017, 05:32 PM
BC Classic:

Going to key the :7:, Churchill in this race. A lot of speed here, and at a ML of 15-1 has a good chance of hitting the board. Just playing in the exacta and tri.

When was the last time a Euro even finished top 3? Giant's Causeway?

Lemon Drop Husker
10-31-2017, 06:43 PM
When was the last time a Euro even finished top 3? Giant's Causeway?

Euros swept the Exacta in 2008 with Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator when Santa Anita was fake dirt.

Declaration of War should have won in 2013. :pout:

LemonSoupKid
10-31-2017, 11:25 PM
Euros swept the Exacta in 2008 with Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator when Santa Anita was fake dirt.

Declaration of War should have won in 2013. :pout:

:confused:

PoloUK6108
10-31-2017, 11:56 PM
When was the last time a Euro even finished top 3? Giant's Causeway?

Declaration of War & Toast of New York, no?

Lemon Drop Husker
11-01-2017, 02:02 AM
Powered through the BC card.

Thoughts.

R6 Friday Juvy Filly Turf: :2: Happily could be a single, :9: Fatale Bere is solid. :1: Best Performance could upset

R7 Dirt Mile: :7: Cupid and :10: Practical Joke

R8 Juvy Turf: No idea. :1::2:, and if :13::14: get in?

R9 Distaff: :6: Forever Unbridled.

Saturday:

R4 Juvy Filly: :7::11::12: likely hitting the ALL button

R5 Turf Sprint: :3::11::12:

R6 Filly/Mare Sprint: :7::2::9::14:

R7 Filly/Mare Turf: :5::6::9::10:

R8 Sprint: :2::6::7:

R9 Mile: :10:

R10 Juvy: :11:

R11 Turf: :3::4::5::7:

R12 Classic: :1::8::11:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZKZ_lQ5FWQ

Secondbest
11-01-2017, 12:43 PM
Powered through the BC card.

Thoughts.

R6 Friday Juvy Filly Turf: :2: Happily could be a single, :9: Fatale Bere is solid. :1: Best Performance could upset

R7 Dirt Mile: :7: Cupid and :10: Practical Joke

R8 Juvy Turf: No idea. :1::2:, and if :13::14: get in?

R9 Distaff: :6: Forever Unbridled.

Saturday:

R4 Juvy Filly: :7::11::12: likely hitting the ALL button

R5 Turf Sprint: :3::11::12:

R6 Filly/Mare Sprint: :7::2::9::14:

R7 Filly/Mare Turf: :5::6::9::10:

R8 Sprint: :2::6::7:

R9 Mile: :10:

R10 Juvy: :11:

R11 Turf: :3::4::5::7:

R12 Classic: :1::8::11:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZKZ_lQ5FWQ

I see you changed your mind in the Sprint. Good Luck.

biggestal99
11-01-2017, 02:14 PM
Best bet:Abel tasman-Speedy types set it up for the big close.

Allan

letswastemoney
11-01-2017, 02:39 PM
How is anyone picking against Unique Bella? I think she crushes the F/M Sprint.

ISU-horse
11-01-2017, 02:56 PM
You can parlay Bolt D'oro at +115, Drefong + 125, Unique Bella +150, and Lady Aurelia -120 on Bovada and get over 21/1.

Probably doesn't hit but might be fun to throw a little bit of cash on.

menifee
11-01-2017, 03:10 PM
How is anyone picking against Unique Bella? I think she crushes the F/M Sprint.

I am against her given her price. That last field she faced was not that good. She's shown an hesitancy at the break and she sometimes does not relax. Her speed figures don't destroy this field. Facing some tough older competitors. Skye Diamonds has been really good this year. She is the most likely winner, but she doesn't offer value.

menifee
11-01-2017, 03:13 PM
Yes I understand that. What I said was they may not run as fast early as we think not that they wouldn't go for the lead. Maybe the half is 44 and4 or 45 not 44and1 or 44 flat for example. i'm forward for the race. Whatever you do, good luck.

I would be stunned if they don't go 44 to the half.

Frost king
11-01-2017, 04:18 PM
How is anyone picking against Unique Bella? I think she crushes the F/M Sprint.

No 3 yr old has EVER won this race. What makes you think, that she towers above the rest? Every winner in this race, at some point during the year has raced on synthetic or grass, and sometimes both. There are only a few horses that qualify this year, and she is not one of them. I might be wrong, but she has those two historical issues to deal with.

AndyC
11-01-2017, 06:42 PM
No 3 yr old has EVER won this race. What makes you think, that she towers above the rest? Every winner in this race, at some point during the year has raced on synthetic or grass, and sometimes both. There are only a few horses that qualify this year, and she is not one of them. I might be wrong, but she has those two historical issues to deal with.

Do you really think that 10 races is a substantial enough sample size to throw out a 3yo? Why do you think that running on synthetic or grass during the year is important? If your above 2 "stats" are, in fact, powerful predictors then they should also be predictive in non-BC races at this time of year.

Hoops McCann
11-01-2017, 06:42 PM
September

Track Phantom
11-01-2017, 07:06 PM
September
Big chance.

Frost king
11-01-2017, 08:06 PM
Do you really think that 10 races is a substantial enough sample size to throw out a 3yo? Why do you think that running on synthetic or grass during the year is important? If your above 2 "stats" are, in fact, powerful predictors then they should also be predictive in non-BC races at this time of year.

You are betting her on a 10 race lifetime sample are you not? So I am using the data produced by the last 10 winners of this race to make my decisions.

AndyC
11-01-2017, 10:37 PM
You are betting her on a 10 race lifetime sample are you not? So I am using the data produced by the last 10 winners of this race to make my decisions.

If I were to bet her it would not be on a sample but her entire career. Did you throw out Very Subtle when she won the BC Sprint at 3?

bks
11-02-2017, 10:52 AM
just hearing a lot of steam on her. Stellar wind is 0/2 in this race but she likely goes favored, Forever Unbridled has a bit of the slows and has to run a career best.

I see it 5/2 SW
3/1 Elate
7/2 forever unbridled

7/1 Paradise Woods
12/1 Abel Tasman

Something like that.

Abel tasman will be nowhere near 12-1. If she is, she's an autobet.

bks
11-02-2017, 10:56 AM
Best bet:Abel tasman-Speedy types set it up for the big close.

Allan

Very much agree.

LemonSoupKid
11-02-2017, 11:37 AM
I am against her given her price. That last field she faced was not that good. She's shown an hesitancy at the break and she sometimes does not relax. Her speed figures don't destroy this field. Facing some tough older competitors. Skye Diamonds has been really good this year. She is the most likely winner, but she doesn't offer value.

Having almost gone through the all fields preliminarily, Skye Diamonds stood out. I like this thread and false favorites; they are the key to hitting multi-race wagers that matter.

For example, I enjoy input from all sources and I think he's somewhat interesting to listen to, but I took a look at the Out of the Gate episodes for Friday and Saturday. Jonathon Kinchen is so chalky on those two pick 4s it is nuts. Granted, they are small tickets, and relatively he might argue that ANY P4 BC day will "pay" but the odds these favorites win easy (or even win) is doubtful at best in most of the races. I know he'll have some Bs but I feel like a lot of that chalky talk you might as well just look at the morning line or at the track program "selections".

Multi-race wagers are for super confident players hitting singles here and there and spreading elsewhere. Also, taking shots on horses (like I will) like Takaful [with few others if any in that race] who are double digit prices and have a great shot to win, so you can minimize tickets and maximize wins.

GMB@BP
11-02-2017, 02:11 PM
:bang:



Thanks bro for your input ... always appreciate the insight .... :popcorn:

Just to follow up, not sure if it was the rain or the cooler weather but the track was definitely tighter yesterday and played faster. I think it was still a fair race track.

Will watch again today.

classhandicapper
11-02-2017, 03:26 PM
How is anyone picking against Unique Bella? I think she crushes the F/M Sprint.

That's one of the more interesting races on the 2 day card.

If Unique Bella runs a Groupie Doll level race and blows them out I would not be surprised. Early in the year she looked like she could "anything". But we haven't seen if she has actually developed as expected. If she hasn't, that race is ridiculously wide open.

PhantomOnTour
11-02-2017, 04:11 PM
I'm having a hard time finding a viable longshot (9-1 or higher) win candidate in any dirt race on Fri and Sat.
Takaful could surprise...anyone have a dirt winner that will pay over $20 ??

burnsy
11-02-2017, 04:25 PM
[QUOTE=bks;2236915]Abel tasman will be nowhere near 12-1. If she is, she's an autobet.[/QUOTE

Agreed, I'll give Forever Unbridled a long look too at 4-1, Elate will probably be over bet in this spot. Last time I saw Forever Unbridled run she was an easy winner going wide through out and she has back class.

As for Saturday my best bet is World Approval at 4-1 or more. Looks like he will have to deal with Ribchester shipping over but if that horse is not 100% or dislikes the surface it could be a done deal. I've been touting this horse for three years, he's a tuff customer and he's made me a ton of money during his career. The cut back this year was a thing of beauty and this hard knocker relishes the Mile Distance.

At this point I can't bet against this horse, especially if he is going to pay 10 bucks or more again.........its been like stealing money with him. He is a beast. Win or lose I'm in!

GMB@BP
11-02-2017, 04:28 PM
I'm having a hard time finding a viable longshot (9-1 or higher) win candidate in any dirt race on Fri and Sat.
Takaful could surprise...anyone have a dirt winner that will pay over $20 ??

I thought Caladonia Road was mildly interesting.

GMB@BP
11-02-2017, 04:29 PM
Abel tasman will be nowhere near 12-1. If she is, she's an autobet.

12/1 may be a bit of a stretch, but she will be much higher than that ML.

jay68802
11-02-2017, 04:34 PM
I'm having a hard time finding a viable longshot (9-1 or higher) win candidate in any dirt race on Fri and Sat.
Takaful could surprise...anyone have a dirt winner that will pay over $20 ??

Race #4 Friday GoldStJuvFB200K

:9: Family Girl 10-1 Prat gets on, and was the favorite in the last race against a lot of this group. See a "three and out" speed figure pattern in first 4 races. Back to Del Mar where she ran her best speed figure and could bounce back to another lifetime best.

classhandicapper
11-02-2017, 05:42 PM
I'm having a hard time finding a viable longshot (9-1 or higher) win candidate in any dirt race on Fri and Sat.
Takaful could surprise...anyone have a dirt winner that will pay over $20 ??

I'm going to use Ami's Mesa in the Filly Sprint on my exotic tickets.

There's a lot of speed in that race.

At 7F, competitive races will sometimes totally fall apart. She's got a really nice kick, likes 7F, and her last 2 figures are good enough to at least be in the mix.

She's 20-1 on the ML because she's going up against much better and switching to dirt. So there's plenty of risk she simply gets outrun or hates dirt. But I see her as a horse that could sweeten things up in the exotics at a big price if she likes dirt and the race develops the way I expect. I would watch how the track is playing also.

jocko699
11-02-2017, 06:38 PM
I'm having a hard time finding a viable longshot (9-1 or higher) win candidate in any dirt race on Fri and Sat.
Takaful could surprise...anyone have a dirt winner that will pay over $20 ??

I am playing Giant Expectations 12-1 in race 7 on Friday.
I am playing Blond Bomber 20-1 in race 4 on Saturday.

Good luck!!!!!

zico20
11-02-2017, 08:21 PM
[QUOTE=bks;2236915]Abel tasman will be nowhere near 12-1. If she is, she's an autobet.[/QUOTE

Agreed, I'll give Forever Unbridled a long look too at 4-1, Elate will probably be over bet in this spot. Last time I saw Forever Unbridled run she was an easy winner going wide through out and she has back class.

As for Saturday my best bet is World Approval at 4-1 or more. Looks like he will have to deal with Ribchester shipping over but if that horse is not 100% or dislikes the surface it could be a done deal. I've been touting this horse for three years, he's a tuff customer and he's made me a ton of money during his career. The cut back this year was a thing of beauty and this hard knocker relishes the Mile Distance.

At this point I can't bet against this horse, especially if he is going to pay 10 bucks or more again.........its been like stealing money with him. He is a beast. Win or lose I'm in!

If you can beat Ribchester you should cash, but that is a big if. Ribchester is my top pick in the race. World Approval is my second choice.

zico20
11-02-2017, 08:32 PM
That's one of the more interesting races on the 2 day card.

If Unique Bella runs a Groupie Doll level race and blows them out I would not be surprised. Early in the year she looked like she could "anything". But we haven't seen if she has actually developed as expected. If she hasn't, that race is ridiculously wide open.

I agree with you. I don't think Unique Bella is anywhere close to a lock, it is wide open. What in the world are they thinking with the Thistledown's horse.:6: Talk about delusions of grandeur.

burnsy
11-04-2017, 11:58 AM
I love that US Navy Flag has already run 10 times as a 2 year old. Nice foundation, even though little experience going a distance (from memory, no pps in front of me).

This one is definitely on my radar after yesterdays results. Back to back grade 1's on the stretch out, surface switch, turf to dirt baby. As you mentioned 10 starts at 2 yo, unheard of in this day and age. Monster breeding, O'Brien and Ryan Moore are not here for a sun tan with this horse. Very dangerous if he ships and handles surface.

Afleet
11-04-2017, 02:20 PM
I'm going to use Ami's Mesa in the Filly Sprint on my exotic tickets.

There's a lot of speed in that race.

At 7F, competitive races will sometimes totally fall apart. She's got a really nice kick, likes 7F, and her last 2 figures are good enough to at least be in the mix.

She's 20-1 on the ML because she's going up against much better and switching to dirt. So there's plenty of risk she simply gets outrun or hates dirt. But I see her as a horse that could sweeten things up in the exotics at a big price if she likes dirt and the race develops the way I expect. I would watch how the track is playing also.

I like your horse and throwing in Bar of Gold to blow up the tri

jocko699
11-04-2017, 04:18 PM
I am playing Giant Expectations 12-1 in race 7 on Friday.
I am playing Blond Bomber 20-1 in race 4 on Saturday.

Good luck!!!!!

BB raced pretty well. I'll take the $15.20 show price:headbanger::headbanger:

classhandicapper
11-04-2017, 05:31 PM
I like your horse and throwing in Bar of Gold to blow up the tri

I hope you got rich. :ThmbUp:

I played Ami's Mesa win and place for a small action wager, but I didn't hit the exacta.

Afleet
11-04-2017, 05:34 PM
I like your horse and throwing in Bar of Gold to blow up the tri

Had the tri and $20 WPS on Bar of Gold,live
in pick 3s

jocko699
11-04-2017, 05:35 PM
Had the tri and $20 WPS on Bar of Gold,line in pick 3s

Wow!!!! Great job!!!!!

classhandicapper
11-04-2017, 05:37 PM
Had the tri and $20 WPS on Bar of Gold,live
in pick 3s

:headbanger:

I was praying you had it. Great job.

Afleet
11-04-2017, 05:45 PM
:headbanger:

I was praying you had it. Great job.thanks for getting me on the #14
Appreciate it owe you a beer

Afleet
11-04-2017, 05:47 PM
Wow!!!! Great job!!!!!

Thanks biggest tri I ever hit

classhandicapper
11-04-2017, 05:48 PM
thanks for getting me on the #14
Appreciate it owe you a beer

No problem.

I don't post too many opinions. I'm happy I helped reinforce your view. I only wish I listened to you and had the exacta too.

castaway01
11-04-2017, 05:49 PM
I hope you got rich. :ThmbUp:

I played Ami's Mesa win and place for a small action wager, but I didn't hit the exacta.

Great call by both of you. Frankly, you handling just having a small wager on that horse so diplomatically is pretty amazing. I know it's racing but that's some serious self-control.

Afleet, great job with Bar of Gold.

Afleet
11-04-2017, 06:11 PM
Live to Drefong and Imperial Hint in the pick 3

Secondbest
11-04-2017, 06:11 PM
I like your horse and throwing in Bar of Gold to blow up the tri

Great call

Frost king
11-04-2017, 06:15 PM
Do you really think that 10 races is a substantial enough sample size to throw out a 3yo? Why do you think that running on synthetic or grass during the year is important? If your above 2 "stats" are, in fact, powerful predictors then they should also be predictive in non-BC races at this time of year.

Originally Posted by letswastemoney View Post
How is anyone picking against Unique Bella? I think she crushes the F/M Sprint.

No 3 yr old has EVER won this race. What makes you think, that she towers above the rest? Every winner in this race, at some point during the year has raced on synthetic or grass, and sometimes both. There are only a few horses that qualify this year, and she is not one of them. I might be wrong, but she has those two historical issues to deal with.

What an easy exactor that was!!!! LOL

GMB@BP
11-04-2017, 06:16 PM
Live to Drefong and Imperial Hint in the pick 3

good luck man....seems like Defong has a lot against him in this spot with the way the tracks been playing, maybe a favorite can win at some point.

Secondbest
11-04-2017, 06:23 PM
Well I love drefong but at even money can't bet to win.

Afleet
11-04-2017, 06:36 PM
$100 WPS on #10

Secondbest
11-04-2017, 06:44 PM
I couldn't have been more wrong . Horse had nothing. When he laid third and couldn't gain in the backstretch You knew he was dead.Thats what you get for predicting early.

classhandicapper
11-04-2017, 06:57 PM
good luck man....seems like Defong has a lot against him in this spot with the way the tracks been playing, maybe a favorite can win at some point.

Yeah, outside closers have been doing best.

Tom
11-04-2017, 06:59 PM
Best Bet of the day will be at Pen National tonight! :lol:

Tom
11-04-2017, 07:08 PM
The Mile

:8:
:12:

:10: Ribchester, no lasix, automatic throw out.

Afleet
11-04-2017, 09:00 PM
Had $50 WPS on Talismatic

Afleet
11-04-2017, 09:15 PM
Live to Pavel and Gun Runner $20 doubles

clicknow
11-04-2017, 11:03 PM
Had $50 WPS on Talismatic

and no lasix.

Secondbest
11-04-2017, 11:15 PM
Live to Pavel and Gun Runner $20 doubles

Good hit

Afleet
11-04-2017, 11:54 PM
Good hit

Thanks; had a great day. Imperial Hint losing cost me $30k

Afleet
11-04-2017, 11:59 PM
No 3 yr old has EVER won this race. What makes you think, that she towers above the rest? Every winner in this race, at some point during the year has raced on synthetic or grass, and sometimes both. There are only a few horses that qualify this year, and she is not one of them. I might be wrong, but she has those two historical issues to deal with.

thanks man-I owe you big time. I'll buy you a steak dinner and my word is as good as gold. I'll be down at oaklawn in the winter a few times and I go to PRM and Horsemans a lot.

Lemon Drop Husker
11-05-2017, 12:05 AM
So. Much. Fun.

Uber driver getting free meal at easons52

Afleet
11-05-2017, 12:05 AM
No problem.

I don't post too many opinions. I'm happy I helped reinforce your view. I only wish I listened to you and had the exacta too.

forgot to say thats was a tough beat on the#14. I didn't think the 5 got there, even on slow mo. My buddies kept saying she got there!

Afleet
11-05-2017, 12:07 AM
So. Much. Fun.

Uber driver getting free meal at easons52

I even go to Lincoln some times-went there a few times this summer. Nice clean place w/big TVs

Lemon Drop Husker
11-05-2017, 12:26 AM
So. Much. Fun.

Uber driver getting free meal at Seasons52

Lemon Drop Husker
11-05-2017, 12:28 AM
Sorry for double post

classhandicapper
11-05-2017, 10:42 AM
forgot to say thats was a tough beat on the#14. I didn't think the 5 got there, even on slow mo. My buddies kept saying she got there!

Thanks.

I'm doing this for over 40 years. I think I'm becoming numb. It stung a little, but I didn't make a prime bet and knew I was going to win some money on the race with the place bet.

When I realized who it was that nailed me, my attention immediately went
to hoping you caught the triple. It meant way more to you anyway. If we ever run into each other, I'll take that beer. ;)

I also looked at the winner. As I said, the premise for my bet was that the race could totally fall apart So I looked at everyone I thought could benefit. I considered her. In the end I felt like I was gong to have to spread too much to play exactas and trlples. So I simplified with WP.