dilanesp
10-27-2017, 08:22 PM
Haven't posted my handicapping in awhile. Here goes.
1st: Best horses here look like :3: Arch of Troy and :7: Cynthiana, with Arch of Troy offering the better betting value. Arch of Troy is lightly raced and hasn't proven herself a complete dog yet, while Cynthiana's last race earned the best last-out sustained pace number, always a big factor in turf routes.
2nd: :7: Lipster has run pretty well in his first two starts, has good pace numbers, and I like his 48 3/5 workout going into this one. He catches a pretty weak field here.
3rd: :10: Lori's Attitude. I usually don't like horses who can't win a Maiden Claimer and step back into a special weight race, but she has proven she loves this course and there really isn't a lot of competition. It's now or never for her.
4th: :2:Saint Dermot. He woke up in his last start. If that race is for real, it's enough to win here. He should get a perfect trip under Sal Gonzalez sitting right behind the speed.
5th: :3: Irish Freedom looks like another potential Baffert star. He had high enough hopes for him in the spring to put him in the Santa Anita Derby; the horse then apparently got hurt, and was laid out until August when he looked like 285,000 bucks winning an allowance race. He's been pointed for this.
6th: :3: Angel Allie and :11: Painting Corners are the top two here. Angel Allie ran a good race last time out down the hill and impressed the clockers. Painting Corners is 2 for 2 down the hill and returns to his favorite course.
7th: :1: Rodeler. Speed and the rail going 5 1/2 furlongs against a bunch of cheap horses. In his last race he had to duel three wide around the tight Los Al turn. This time he should get clear and go all the way.
8th: Looks like a grab bag. :1: :5: :6: and :10: look like the main contenders.
9th: :2: Cowboy Culture :5: Just Howard and :6: Sharp Samurai look like the top choices in a really interesting race that a lot of top eastern barns have shipped horses out for. Cowboy Culture ran a bang up race in the Arlington Classic and has excellent sustained pace numbers, and is trained by a super-trainer. Just Howard has won four in a row for Graham Motion. And Sharp Samurai has the home course advantage and has won three in a row since switching to Gary Stevens.
10th: :10: Besides the Point might be able to clear this field from her outside post. She's 4 for 9 lifetime, which is just excellent for a $12,500 claimer.
11th: :5: Save Ground and :8: Well Developed. Save Ground didn't live up to his name in his first start, running well despite a wide trip. And Well Developed flew in the stretch after a slow start, and came back with a good worktab for Patrick Gallagher.
1st: Best horses here look like :3: Arch of Troy and :7: Cynthiana, with Arch of Troy offering the better betting value. Arch of Troy is lightly raced and hasn't proven herself a complete dog yet, while Cynthiana's last race earned the best last-out sustained pace number, always a big factor in turf routes.
2nd: :7: Lipster has run pretty well in his first two starts, has good pace numbers, and I like his 48 3/5 workout going into this one. He catches a pretty weak field here.
3rd: :10: Lori's Attitude. I usually don't like horses who can't win a Maiden Claimer and step back into a special weight race, but she has proven she loves this course and there really isn't a lot of competition. It's now or never for her.
4th: :2:Saint Dermot. He woke up in his last start. If that race is for real, it's enough to win here. He should get a perfect trip under Sal Gonzalez sitting right behind the speed.
5th: :3: Irish Freedom looks like another potential Baffert star. He had high enough hopes for him in the spring to put him in the Santa Anita Derby; the horse then apparently got hurt, and was laid out until August when he looked like 285,000 bucks winning an allowance race. He's been pointed for this.
6th: :3: Angel Allie and :11: Painting Corners are the top two here. Angel Allie ran a good race last time out down the hill and impressed the clockers. Painting Corners is 2 for 2 down the hill and returns to his favorite course.
7th: :1: Rodeler. Speed and the rail going 5 1/2 furlongs against a bunch of cheap horses. In his last race he had to duel three wide around the tight Los Al turn. This time he should get clear and go all the way.
8th: Looks like a grab bag. :1: :5: :6: and :10: look like the main contenders.
9th: :2: Cowboy Culture :5: Just Howard and :6: Sharp Samurai look like the top choices in a really interesting race that a lot of top eastern barns have shipped horses out for. Cowboy Culture ran a bang up race in the Arlington Classic and has excellent sustained pace numbers, and is trained by a super-trainer. Just Howard has won four in a row for Graham Motion. And Sharp Samurai has the home course advantage and has won three in a row since switching to Gary Stevens.
10th: :10: Besides the Point might be able to clear this field from her outside post. She's 4 for 9 lifetime, which is just excellent for a $12,500 claimer.
11th: :5: Save Ground and :8: Well Developed. Save Ground didn't live up to his name in his first start, running well despite a wide trip. And Well Developed flew in the stretch after a slow start, and came back with a good worktab for Patrick Gallagher.