Question To Trainer Angle Players

[PaceAdvantage]

What criteria must an angle possess in order for you to go to the windows??

A minimum number of starts?? Minimum win %? Minimum ROI?? etc.....

If you don't want to answer in public, my e-mail or private message is always on....;)



==PA

[smf]

PA,

I'm afraid I don't have a clear cut answer for you, at least from my perspective. Cole Norman, Tom Amoss and Al Stall have all used their same patterns w/ young horses for years. That's the exception and not the rule, tho (finding repetitive winners that you can count on).

One example of when "once was enough to convince me" was ET Garcia at Philly claiming young horses from Alf Velasquez last summer. He took a maiden from Velasquez and won at nice odds. He then took SPEEDY ESCORT a little later from him and won 2nd off the claim @ $29.40. Two months later he took YOU ARE SILVER off him at the claimbox and won 2nd off the claim @ $11.00 (and repeated). Those last 2 were kinda predictable b/c of the repeated patterns within the claims.

Since then, Garcia has run cold on the Velasquez angle. These things don't last forever. His last 2 claims off him were busts.

So, you have instances where you have succesful trainers that produce the same moves year after year, and some that you have to catch early on in order to cash in. The latter types put you in the black for good, and require some deep digging. Knowing when to bail on 'em is as important as knowing when to jump in, imho.

Sorry for the fuzzy answer :confused: :( :confused:

[canuck]

Smf

Just finished reading Inside the Claiming Game--the plays you describe above seem to be the meat and potatoes of Collisons methodology-
Any advice as to what to concentrate on from the book?
Also--any circuits you would recommend playing or avoiding???

[smf]

Canuck---I'll be in PA's warrom for the next 30 minutes if you want to "talk claims".....

BTW, Congrats on the marriage thing!

[smf]

Canuck,

No one or two things to concentrate on. He covered all the bases (to my limited knowledge) when it comes to capping claims.

Both Cal circuits are good for this type play along w/ quality winter meets (FG, GP). I'm just now looking into Nyra and I'm sure the Bel, Sar meets w/ work just fine for claims also.

The mid-atlantic tracks are *very* good also. If their trainers (mjc, del pk) came to LS, they'd put our lightweights here "out of bidness" quickly.

I'd avoid Ky tracks like the damn plague. Ditto for the cheap nite tracks. LS is do-able, but not as good (financially for a player) as MJC, or Delaware. There are 2 players on this board that are very good trainer players from Chicago and I don't want to tick em off, but I'd stay away from there also (jmho).

Note on the Cal tracks---last summer I followed so cal and had to give up the effort b/c of too much time spent on capping. Long story short, I'm dumping Pha and Mth in favor of both Cal circuits, w/ the larger emphasis on So cal. The "stuff" I found out last summer at HOL, DMR are holding up this winter at SA. That tells me Cal racing s/b very good for playing claims.

Good luck

[canuck]

smf--

Thanks for the heads up on the Ky and Illinois circuit--was going to structure my play around the tracks we regularly get through the OJC-(Wo Fe SoCal Ny Illinois Ky Fla)

Will probably read the book 5 or 6 more times--only took a couple of hours yesterday and I liked what I read...you may get sick of me e-mailing you in the future LOL

[ceejay]

PA:

I use trainer plays sometimes and on a spot basis. Typically MSW or MCL, or when a horse is trying something new (turf, etc).

I look for an ROI that is close to break-even or higher (from BRIS or DRF stats) and then calculate the Average winning odds of that situation. If "today's" odds are close to or a somewhat higher it is a potential play. If a short-odds situation, say avg winning odds of 4:1 are going off at 15:1 tthen I pass the play.

I insist on enough data for me to be comfortable, usually an angle with 3 or more winners.

I've hit a few of huge-priced (>$50) winners doing this.