Handicap This Race

[FakeNameChanged]

Handicap this race at the dreaded Parx on 10/24/17. I picked it because of a full field and several class droppers and some potential Long Shots. I will probably only make my picks live close to post time on the selections thread.

Race 10-1 M 70 Yds-Clm 7500n2L; 3Yo&Up.

:1: December Red 12-1 ML. Had this horse on a watch list since 9/5 when it won at $59 in Mc10K. That day he was 20-1 ML, should have been 30-1 and at first flash he was 8-1. Noted it but didn’t pull the trigger looking at his abysmal form. Came back at 10K-n2L and finished a grudging 3rd. Gets drop today, with two good improving races. His FP(fulcr. pace) would be 113.1 in l.r. (112.2-2lr)
:2: Mr McFrosty 5-1 ML. Drops from 16K at Bel and Bris says drop looks suspicious. LR he put up a 112.2, but finished 7 bl’s from winner, that number looks aberrant in his pp’s.. Back in May, he showed a 114.2, again at Bel in a one turn mile. Prime pwr #2.
:3: Bubba Chub 10-1 ML. -Having a hard time keeping this one in. Fin. 3rd two races ago at 5000 clm. FPace is 114.2 from back in July. Look elsewhere.
:4: Open Bar 15-1 ML. Last raced at Sar for 16000 in Aug. 54 days off with only two workouts. Has been ITM 5/10 races all in sprints.
:5: Lightning Flash 20-1 ML. 2nd last race he showed improved form at same level same distance finished 2nd. Then his trainer ships him to run a mile on the turf where he’s eased. Back today at level where he fin. 2nd. Was that race a workout, and back today for 7500? FP is 113.4 and 113.0 at Med. Along with the 1, he’s one of my possible long shots.

:6: My Uncle Al 4-1 ML. He’s Bris Prime Pwr #1. Last time he ran a pace race at 114.3 and faded to 4th at this level at 1-1/16. Two races back at 25000 he ran 112.1 pace and fin. 3rd. Last race looks like he’s declining, but I have his last fraction as tied for one of the best with the #9.

:7: Unpredictable 5/2 ML. Lightly raced horse(⅕) and prime pwr. #3. L R he looked dismal in the mud at 6f. Third race back at this dist.-he was third with a 113.1 pace in MC30K. Doesn’t look to me like he’ll be the favorite.

:8: Curly Pal 6-1 ML. He ran a good 2nd last race at 1-1/16, same level. He shows a whopping +23 increase is his SR over 2nd lr. Also a big increase in E2 pace ratings. I have his pace at 114.4-114.2. Last fraction looks to be on the slower group. At 1/42, his best level looks to one level down from this one.

:9: Albie 15-1 ML Last race pace at 116.0 at 6250Clm and next avail at 114.4. With that slow pace, he managed to put up one of the fastest last fraction times with the #6.

:10: West Shore Drive 20-1 ML. Form looks abymal in last 3 races of which two are at this level and routes. One of the Sartin or Bradshaw rules I’ve seen on another site was don’t even bother to look at 20-1 ML’s. Here’s one I may agree with on this horse.

:11: Sambook 15-1 ML. Last race was in Aug at Mth for 5000 sprint. For his pace times, I get a 114.0 and 113.4 in routes. His late speed looks to be one of the slowest.

[jay68802]

Parx Race 10:



:1: December Red 12-1 Has gone a little to fast in last 2. 1'st time in the mud and could take this field a long way on the front. Contender.

:2: Mr McFrosty 5-1 Mixed feelings here, If the horse improved in last, why the drop? The only reason is an easy spot. Got to use and has to be 4-1+.

:3: Bubba Chub 10-1 Not much to say here, toss.

:4: Open Bar 15-1 Drop in class and improving speed figures, trainer and jockey are solid here. Solid mud breeding, my pick.

:5: Lightning Flash 20-1 Do not see it, all numbers get beat here.

:6: My Uncle Al 4-1 probably the fav, but declining late pace #'s say be careful.

:7: Unpredictable 5/2 Even with Penningon on, looks like the trainer is saying "no way" with the quick drop.

:8: Curly Pal 6-1 Last race looks good, but it seems every time he runs good, the next one is bad. would need at least 30-1 to play this one.

:9: Albie 15-1 Likes to run 2nd, and like the :8:, can't string two together. Out.

:10: West Shore Drive 20-1 Does have a win in the mud and a third, the odds tell the story here, last 3 between 38 and 60-1 at this level. Toss.

:11: Sambook 15-1 Gets back to the track and with the jockey he seems to run for. Good mud breeding, could be there for a price. Contender.

[Immortal6]

My pick to win would be the :2: the pedigree and trainer are big pluses for me. Hope he can sit off the pace setting :1: to his inside and have enough in the tank down the stretch to pull this off.

Another horse I like at a price is the :9: although I think his post time odds will be about half of his morning line 15-1.

As Jay mentioned I would need to get ML 5-1 on the :2: to feel confident about placing a wager.

[ldiatone]

:7: SCR

[michiken]

might as well swing for the fences -> :11: wps.

Ken

[ldiatone]

Parx Race 10:



:1: December Red 12-1 Has gone a little to fast in last 2. 1'st time in the mud and could take this field a long way on the front. Contender.

:2: Mr McFrosty 5-1 Mixed feelings here, If the horse improved in last, why the drop? The only reason is an easy spot. Got to use and has to be 4-1+.

:3: Bubba Chub 10-1 Not much to say here, toss.

:4: Open Bar 15-1 Drop in class and improving speed figures, trainer and jockey are solid here. Solid mud breeding, my pick.

:5: Lightning Flash 20-1 Do not see it, all numbers get beat here.

:6: My Uncle Al 4-1 probably the fav, but declining late pace #'s say be careful.

:7: Unpredictable 5/2 Even with Penningon on, looks like the trainer is saying "no way" with the quick drop.

:8: Curly Pal 6-1 Last race looks good, but it seems every time he runs good, the next one is bad. would need at least 30-1 to play this one.

:9: Albie 15-1 Likes to run 2nd, and like the :8:, can't string two together. Out.

:10: West Shore Drive 20-1 Does have a win in the mud and a third, the odds tell the story here, last 3 between 38 and 60-1 at this level. Toss.

:11: Sambook 15-1 Gets back to the track and with the jockey he seems to run for. Good mud breeding, could be there for a price. Contender.

agree on the :4: but also the :6:

[thaskalos]

:6: My Uncle Al 4-1 ML. He’s Bris Prime Pwr #1. Last time he ran a pace race at 114.3 and faded to 4th at this level at 1-1/16. Two races back at 25000 he ran 112.1 pace and fin. 3rd. Last race looks like he’s declining, but I have his last fraction as tied for one of the best with the #9.


Do you calculate the last fractions manually...or do you use already-made pace figures? In either case...there is no way that the last fraction in the last race of the :6: could be considered as one of the best in the race. That last fraction was abysmal.

[FakeNameChanged]

Do you calculate the last fractions manually...or do you use already-made pace figures? In either case...there is no way that the last fraction in the last race of the :6: could be considered as one of the best in the race. That last fraction was abysmal.
Thask, actually maybe I mispoke, I look for best two where horse was competitive. If I said last race, then that wasn't correct, will check later, as I'm middle of bike project with grand kids. To your question, I calculate my own fractions and make some adjustments of my own design. And from one of your earlier suggestions, I look at Bris pace numbers to see if it's relative to other paces.

[thaskalos]

The :6: has the look of a declining horse...and it won't be helped by the pace-pressure that the :1: and the :11: are sure to apply. Consequently...I want no part of the :6: at the short odds that it's sure to go off.

The :1: will make the lead here, but it will be a contested lead...and the horse has given up sizable leads in the past. I don't trust this horse in the lane, even though it has the look of an improving sort. IMO, the horse needs a race with less early speed in order to shine...and that's not the case here.

There is a lot to like about the :2:, given the circumstances. Class drop, ships in from Belmont, third off a layoff, and it looks to be improving. Bris may say that the drop in class is a negative...but I disagree. The horse hasn't been close at the wire in its recent starts...and it obviously doesn't belong at the $16,000 level. It broke its maiden in a maiden-claimer with an $18,400 purse...and it races for about $19,000 today. It makes sense to me...and I consider this horse a main contender.

The :4: intrigues me...but the distance concerns and the layoff combine to dissuade me from accepting it as a legitimate win-candidate.

From the rest of the horses, only the :9: causes me to raise an eyebrow...because it shows consistent closing fractions in a race where such a tactic may prove beneficial. The horse is on the cheap side as far as "class" is concerned...but it won the only time it raced at Parx.

Not sure if the closing odds will warrant a bet...but the :2: looks best to me in this race.

[AstrosFan]

:9:

:4:

:6:

[FakeNameChanged]

The :6: has the look of a declining horse...and it won't be helped by the pace-pressure that the :1: and the :11: are sure to apply. Consequently...I want no part of the :6: at the short odds that it's sure to go off.

The :1: will make the lead here, but it will be a contested lead...and the horse has given up sizable leads in the past. I don't trust this horse in the lane, even though it has the look of an improving sort. IMO, the horse needs a race with less early speed in order to shine...and that's not the case here.

There is a lot to like about the :2:, given the circumstances. Class drop, ships in from Belmont, third off a layoff, and it looks to be improving. Bris may say that the drop in class is a negative...but I disagree. The horse hasn't been close at the wire in its recent starts...and it obviously doesn't belong at the $16,000 level. It broke its maiden in a maiden-claimer with an $18,400 purse...and it races for about $19,000 today. It makes sense to me...and I consider this horse a main contender.

The :4: intrigues me...but the distance concerns and the layoff combine to dissuade me from accepting it as a legitimate win-candidate.

From the rest of the horses, only the :9: causes me to raise an eyebrow...because it shows consistent closing fractions in a race where such a tactic may prove beneficial. The horse is on the cheap side as far as "class" is concerned...but it won the only time it raced at Parx.

Not sure if the closing odds will warrant a bet...but the :2: looks best to me in this race.
I also said the :6: has the look of a declining race horse in my original post. And back to your question, I had his late pace in his 2lr as very good, whether looking at fractions or Bris no's. My method is not to look at last race only, but try to keep it somewhat current, as last 4 or 5.
My picks are :4: :2: :1:

[jasperson]

might as well swing for the fences -> :11: wps.

Ken
As they said in "LET IT RIDE",not in this lifetime. :D:D:D

[thaskalos]

I also said the :6: has the look of a declining race horse in my original post. And back to your question, I had his late pace in his 2lr as very good, whether looking at fractions or Bris no's. My method is not to look at last race only, but try to keep it somewhat current, as last 4 or 5.
My picks are :4: :2: :1:

According to my pace figures...even the second-race-back of the :6: has an unimpressive late-pace rating, especially when compared to the late-pace figure of the :9:

[ldiatone]

:2::4::6: all short. would pass but will select :4::6:

[jay68802]

Win Bets: :1: :11:
Exacta Bets: Box :1::4::11:
Exacta : Box :1::4::11: / :1::2::4::6::11:
Tri::1::11: / :4: / :1::2::6::11:
Tri::4: / :1::11: / :1::2::6::11:
Tri::1::4::11: / :2::6: / :1::2::4::6::11:

[ldiatone]

4 Open Bar Silvera R $7.20 $3.60 $2.60
6 My Uncle Al Esquivel E - $3.60 $2.40
2 Mr. McFrosty Diaz, Jr. H R - - $2.40
3 Bubba Chub Leon S - -

[FakeNameChanged]

According to my pace figures...even the second-race-back of the :6: has an unimpressive late-pace rating, especially when compared to the late-pace figure of the :9:
I don't have your figs. What exactly is your point? That my figs are wrong, probably.

[AstrosFan]

:2::4::6: all short. would pass but will select :4::6:


Great ICE COLD EXACTA :headbanger:

[ldiatone]

Great ICE COLD EXACTA :headbanger:

thanks!:ThmbUp:

[thaskalos]

I don't have your figs. What exactly is your point? That my figs are wrong, probably.

I'm not looking to get into an argument...all I am doing is trying to correct a mistake. You said in your initial post that the late-pace ratings of the :6: and the :9: were tied, according to the figures that you use...and this is obviously a bris-figure mistake. In no way should the late-pace figures of the :6: and the :9: be tied...because the two horses have opposing running-styles. The :9: has much better closing figures than the :6:...because he contributes nothing to the early pace of the race.

[FakeNameChanged]

I'm not looking to get into an argument...all I am doing is trying to correct a mistake. You said in your initial post that the late-pace ratings of the :6: and the :9: were tied, according to the figures that you use...and this is obviously a bris-figure mistake. In no way should the late-pace figures of the :6: and the :9: be tied...because the two horses have opposing running-styles. The :9: has much better closing figures than the :6:...because he contributes nothing to the early pace of the race.
Nor do I. Again, I make my own late speed numbers, and only look at Bris, to see if they're relatively high, low, or way out of line. My late speed numbers had the 6 and 9 tied for the lowest of the bunch for their first number and the 9 was one number faster than 6 for the other. But in my orig. comments I'd mentioned that 9 did that with a very slow 116.0 2nd call time, while the 6 had put up two markedly better pace numbers(6f).

As it turned out, the 6 by my calculations put up the best late speed number again in this race and almost ruined the win for #4, whom I picked. I had the 6's late speed as 3 ticks off my original prediction, and dead in the middle of the two late speed numbers I'd had(not Bris' no's.) Where I'd like to be is how to adjust my late speed numbers in routes for slow or fast pace times, which I'm able to do on sprints. I know you are already there. Peace brother.

[jay68802]

Let's do it again. All the different opinions, people using different methods is exactly what handicapping is about. As always people can disagree, see the same info in different light. The class drop with the :2: is a example. Bris said suspicious, it ended up the trainer had the horse ready to be competitive at this level. When I go to the track I sit with the same two guys and we argue about races and then, do it again. Still sort of like them after 15+ years of doing this. The Bris figures showed declining late pace numbers for the :6:, Whosonfirst said they were better than that. Good call on that.

[FakeNameChanged]

Let's do it again. All the different opinions, people using different methods is exactly what handicapping is about. As always people can disagree, see the same info in different light. The class drop with the :2: is a example. Bris said suspicious, it ended up the trainer had the horse ready to be competitive at this level. When I go to the track I sit with the same two guys and we argue about races and then, do it again. Still sort of like them after 15+ years of doing this. The Bris figures showed declining late pace numbers for the :6:, Whosonfirst said they were better than that. Good call on that.

How does the 6th At Belmont tomorrow sound? 7f on turf, full field for 35000 Claiming. Any other suggestions appreciated. Maybe then it would be fun to do a cheap track.

[jay68802]

Sounds good.

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #6: 10/26/17


:1: Cordero 6-1 Will be forwardly placed because of post position and running style. Recent claim by Cox and the cut back in distance give hope. Pretender.

:2: Djulpan 12-1 Maker and Ortiz should take some money. Last time Ortiz was on was close to the pace. Needs more class relief. Toss.

:3: Sallisaw(MTO)7-2

:4: War Stroll 7-2 Have to respect on the class drop and his last race might win this. Notice a long break in the works and is a concern. His good speed figures have been earned against better, but am a little wary. Contender.

:5: Outragous Bet 20-1 3 yr old set career high speed figure 2 back. Saw State bred Allowance in his last and showed the effects of the race before. Now gets a little class relief, has 3 sharp works, and as a 3 yr old late in the fall is set to run another career best. My pick.

:6: Camp Courage 5-1 Has seen the best races and figures in this race. But the obvious physical issues are a concern. Contender.

:7: Lone Trader 12-1 His speed figures say he is a contender, and a Ortiz in the saddle adds to that illusion. Besides the :8: has had the most chances to get his 3rd win. Toss.

:8: Snake Oil Charlie 50-1 Never Mind.

:9: Tiz A Chance 10-1 Since the claim has run figures that can win this race. But the lack of works and the jockey make me a non-believer. Toss.

:10: Performance Bonus 3-1 Brown on the turf, with Castellano. The "please claim me horse" will take money and might surprise and win this, but I doubt it. Pretender.

:11: Any Questions 12-1 The drop in class figures for this horse and might be what he needs. Not to thrilled with the trainer and jockey, but they have won together. On the fence here, but under perfect conditions could surprise. Let the odds make the decision, if under 12-1, consider.

:12: Abbot 8-1 Was the favorite in last and at 8-1 here with the Rosario in the saddle is a solid choice. Contender.

If race is not on turf, will change.

[FakeNameChanged]

Belmont Race #6: 10/26/17


:1: Cordero 6-1 Will be forwardly placed because of post position and running style. Recent claim by Cox and the cut back in distance give hope. Pretender.

:2: Djulpan 12-1 Maker and Ortiz should take some money. Last time Ortiz was on was close to the pace. Needs more class relief. Toss.

:3: Sallisaw(MTO)7-2

:4: War Stroll 7-2 Have to respect on the class drop and his last race might win this. Notice a long break in the works and is a concern. His good speed figures have been earned against better, but am a little wary. Contender.

:5: Outragous Bet 20-1 3 yr old set career high speed figure 2 back. Saw State bred Allowance in his last and showed the effects of the race before. Now gets a little class relief, has 3 sharp works, and as a 3 yr old late in the fall is set to run another career best. My pick.

:6: Camp Courage 5-1 Has seen the best races and figures in this race. But the obvious physical issues are a concern. Contender.

:7: Lone Trader 12-1 His speed figures say he is a contender, and a Ortiz in the saddle adds to that illusion. Besides the :8: has had the most chances to get his 3rd win. Toss.

:8: Snake Oil Charlie 50-1 Never Mind.

:9: Tiz A Chance 10-1 Since the claim has run figures that can win this race. But the lack of works and the jockey make me a non-believer. Toss.

:10: Performance Bonus 3-1 Brown on the turf, with Castellano. The "please claim me horse" will take money and might surprise and win this, but I doubt it. Pretender.

:11: Any Questions 12-1 The drop in class figures for this horse and might be what he needs. Not to thrilled with the trainer and jockey, but they have won together. On the fence here, but under perfect conditions could surprise. Let the odds make the decision, if under 12-1, consider.

:12: Abbot 8-1 Was the favorite in last and at 8-1 here with the Rosario in the saddle is a solid choice. Contender.

If race is not on turf, will change.

Jay, Good analysis, I'm liking your pick on :5: To eliminate any confusion (mine), I've not consulted Bris numbers on this race. I broke it down into three parts, early , late and final speed abilities. So the contenders on my scorecard look like this:
Early: 5-9-12-10
Late: 11-7-2/9 (of course 11 did that with some of the slower early fracts)
Final: 5 - 9 - 7-10
So my simple scorecard tally is: :9: gets 3/3 but no 1st; :5: gets 2/3 both 1sts; & :7: & :10: get 2/3 but both in lower positions. With two #1's I will go with these on the turf:
:5: Outrageous Bid 20-1 ML? (Jay's pick) :9: Tiz A Chance 10-1 ML :7: :10:

[jasperson]

Belmont Race #6: 10/26/17


:1: Cordero 6-1 Will be forwardly placed because of post position and running style. Recent claim by Cox and the cut back in distance give hope. Pretender.

:2: Djulpan 12-1 Maker and Ortiz should take some money. Last time Ortiz was on was close to the pace. Needs more class relief. Toss.

:3: Sallisaw(MTO)7-2

:4: War Stroll 7-2 Have to respect on the class drop and his last race might win this. Notice a long break in the works and is a concern. His good speed figures have been earned against better, but am a little wary. Contender.

:5: Outragous Bet 20-1 3 yr old set career high speed figure 2 back. Saw State bred Allowance in his last and showed the effects of the race before. Now gets a little class relief, has 3 sharp works, and as a 3 yr old late in the fall is set to run another career best. My pick.

:6: Camp Courage 5-1 Has seen the best races and figures in this race. But the obvious physical issues are a concern. Contender.

:7: Lone Trader 12-1 His speed figures say he is a contender, and a Ortiz in the saddle adds to that illusion. Besides the :8: has had the most chances to get his 3rd win. Toss.

:8: Snake Oil Charlie 50-1 Never Mind.

:9: Tiz A Chance 10-1 Since the claim has run figures that can win this race. But the lack of works and the jockey make me a non-believer. Toss.

:10: Performance Bonus 3-1 Brown on the turf, with Castellano. The "please claim me horse" will take money and might surprise and win this, but I doubt it. Pretender.

:11: Any Questions 12-1 The drop in class figures for this horse and might be what he needs. Not to thrilled with the trainer and jockey, but they have won together. On the fence here, but under perfect conditions could surprise. Let the odds make the decision, if under 12-1, consider.

:12: Abbot 8-1 Was the favorite in last and at 8-1 here with the Rosario in the saddle is a solid choice. Contender.

If race is not on turf, will change.
My oddsline program has the following
:9: 5/2
:12: 4-1
:7: 6-1
:10: 6-1
:1: 8/1

[AstrosFan]

:11: Great late kick and back class with a J/T combo winning at 20%

:10: Stalks whatever pace that there is, then hangs in the lane

:4: Clearly a standout on the figs, but lacks a punch in the stretch, while getting some much needed class relief today

:6: 3rd USA start, wasn't bet in last two, but gets a reasonable drop and figures as a threat based on last effort

:12: Well supported in last two runs & despite that 2016 back class, he needs a top effort from a wide post this afternoon as the #9 horse beat him last time out who I don't like today.

:7: A fringe player at best, too slow time wise, but can sneak into the bottom of the tri and super tickets


Playing a pick 3,4,6 / Grand Slam or Double? :4::10::11: are a MUST use

[Immortal6]

It looks to me to be a slow pace set by the :1: I'm thinking 23.5 47 1:11. Slow pace negates some of the closers I would consider at 7F. The horses that look to me to be close to the lead and have first jump on the 1 rounding for home are the :5: and :11: if the pace is hotter than expected I look at the :7: last 7 panels race at Belmont and question why he shouldn't win this race with Irad aboard.

Exacta box :5::7::11:

Don't love the :5: and :7: as much as the :11:
Win bet on the :11: if I can get 10-1

[AstrosFan]

It looks to me to be a slow pace set by the :1: I'm thinking 23.5 47 1:11. Slow pace negates some of the closers I would consider at 7F. The horses that look to me to be close to the lead and have first jump on the 1 rounding for home are the :5: and :11: if the pace is hotter than expected I look at the :7: last 7 panels race at Belmont and question why he shouldn't win this race with Irad aboard.

Exacta box :5::7::11:

Don't love the :5: and :7: as much as the :11:
Win bet on the :11: if I can get 10-1

I just have to stay away from the :5: in this one. I feel his times are too slow for this bunch and needs a career best to land a share


What a great discussion this is from ALL points of view. I am enjoying this quite a bit.

[AstrosFan]

Attached

[FakeNameChanged]

Attached
I see Jose Ortiz' horse :2: is bet down in doubles and exactas. Guess that's expected.

[duncan04]

:10: to win and :10::12: exacta box

[jay68802]

Alive in the Double to:

:4::5::11::12:

Win Bets:

:5::12:

Exacta Bet:

:4::5::12: / :4::5::6::9::12:

[jay68802]

Can you believe the :8: is 27-1? I figured 75-1+.

[ikeika]

Let's go long, #9, Tiz a Chance

[Immortal6]

It looks to me to be a slow pace set by the :1: I'm thinking 23.5 47 1:11. Slow pace negates some of the closers I would consider at 7F. The horses that look to me to be close to the lead and have first jump on the 1 rounding for home are the :5: and :11: if the pace is hotter than expected I look at the :7: last 7 panels race at Belmont and question why he shouldn't win this race with Irad aboard.

Exacta box :5::7::11:

Don't love the :5: and :7: as much as the :11:
Win bet on the :11: if I can get 10-1


Had the fractions down almost exactly, too bad I tossed the :4: :bang: I thought there would be no chance of him making up that ground in the stretch. Great race.

[AstrosFan]

Anyone want to go over tomorrow's 6th race from Woodbine?

Great field of 12 !

[jay68802]

The double to the :4: gave me a free ride and enough for a couple beers.
:5: could not have had a better trip and looked like a struggle in the stretch(soft turf?). Darn :7: gets in the exacta and ruins that bet. Oh well, I think they are going to run another race sometime.

[jay68802]

The sad part of this is after handicapping for 15+ yrs with the same two guys, I still have a hard time including a horse they like over a horse I like. This race was no exception, Whosonfirst, Jasperson, AstrosFan, and Imortal6 all mentioned the :7: in this race. I got stuck on one of my horses, the :12:, and my stubborn personality cost me a good exacta. To all of those handicappers that sniffed out the :7:, good job. Imortal6, impressive on the projected fractions. Woodbine looks good to me.

[AstrosFan]

The sad part of this is after handicapping for 15+ yrs with the same two guys, I still have a hard time including a horse they like over a horse I like. This race was no exception, Whosonfirst, Jasperson, AstrosFan, and Imortal6 all mentioned the :7: in this race. I got stuck on one of my horses, the :12:, and my stubborn personality cost me a good exacta. To all of those handicappers that sniffed out the :7:, good job. Imortal6, impressive on the projected fractions. Woodbine looks good to me.

This is why I think this thread is great! We can learn from one another and sharpen those weak points, into something strong down the road.

***********************************************
Just as a side note re: the #12 horse...

if you pitched the #9, then you had to toss out the #12 IMO

WHY?

That's b/c the #9 beat the #12 last time out

************************************************

A backup play would have cashed in that $75 exacta, so that lesson is always use a backup play. I have been saved many many times on backup tickets in this game.

Anyone of us can study the race right, but what we do wagering wise is the ultimate deciding point.

We all have those stubborn moments, so let's learn from it and make you a winner next time out!

[FakeNameChanged]

Anyone want to go over tomorrow's 6th race from Woodbine?

Great field of 12 !Sounds good, and for Saturday, Jay had requested the 9th at Delta Downs, so we can do a cheap track. Just to get that in the queue.

[AstrosFan]

Sounds good, and for Saturday, Jay had requested the 9th at Delta Downs, so we can do a cheap track. Just to get that in the queue.

Fantastic! :)

Entries attached :coffee:

[FakeNameChanged]

6th Woodbine-1-1/16 Mile-AWS-25000 Clm-Purse 32K +++ 10/27
I haven't played WO seriously in several years, so will use a class points method to determine the contenders, in numerical order.
:1: Conquest Boogaloo 3-1 ML->4 mos. off+3 w/o's. Looks to be the class if ready. Has won 3 in a row after a long layoff.

:5: Oakton 6-1 ML short rest plus a 5f workout-contender.

:9: Viva Lad 5-1 ML ships from Presque Isle-contender

:10: Niigons Glory 15-1 ML Was 2nd at same level & dist. 2nd LR. Fits here

:11: Cito 20-1 ML Takes a drop and change to Campbell a plus-Contender.

While I hate making a long layoff horse my pick, it has to be done.
:1: Conquest Boogaloo 3-1 :10: Niigons Glory 15-1 :9: Viva Lad 5-1

[AstrosFan]

Woodbine Race 6 prognosis

:1: Can't trust this one today. Was well meant in 2015 and is now for sale at a low price. That's a fire sale in my eyes! Jockey change from 19% to 7% and races for a trainer who is 0-18 in the claiming ranks. Needs a repeat of that 5/17 line to have a say in the bottom of the exactas.

:2: Another one who has back class (in 2016) and fits this race via the pace setup. I don't like the last race where he was caught late. Maybe DaSilva had him too close? Notice the jock change after that race. If this horse truly sits off the speed, then a must use.

:3: Hard pass. Speed figs are just too slow.

:4: Huge nose win while being all out to hold on. I think the horse bounces off that race, class hike, needs to be on the lead and a 5% trainer. All negatives. Passing.

:5: Can you trust this 5 y/o gray with the sale sign up after racing in tough ALW company? Horse gets lots of win support only to let you down with those 2nd and 3rd place checks! Likes to loom and then disappoint. Trainer only wins 3% in the claiming level. A factor in the minor awards

:6: Nice back to back wins, but ran a huge figure last time out, so I see some regression from a hard fought win against softer foes on 9/30. Does have a touch of back class, but needs another great trip against stronger equines today. Bottom of the tri and super tixs at best.

:7: Tepid top choice. Love the way this one fits this race. Stalks the pace, has the figs to support a solid effort, strong T/J connections who are 3 for 8 this season, which is impressive! A must use in the .20 Pick 4s!

:8: Passing on this one. Hates SYN surface, 11 months off and is all speed with no bottom.

:9: This one will be knocking on the door, but what's with the bad case of second-itis? Toss into the ex/tri/super investments, but I want to see this one win before I back him. 0-4 at Woodbine going into today's race.

:10: Longshot play for me, but that's b/c I am forgiving his last race. Has some back class in his corner, gets pace to chase today as well. Sits the right trip and if you can forget his last line, a factor.

:11: Horse was faster in 2016 and hasn't won in a LONG TIME! Trainer is 0-28 at the WO meet and while this horse was in over its head during the summer, the class relief hasn't helped. I like the 9/16 line and a repeat of that gets him into the exotics.

:12: Great effort against weaker last time out, but the jock change to a 4% win rider is enough for me to say no on the win end this afternoon. A true closer in a field that is somewhat suspect. A player for the minor placings.


CONTENDERS:
WIN - :7::10:
PLACE - :1::9:
SHOW - :2::5::12:
FOURTH - :6::11:

Pick "N" wagers I will use the :7: & :10:

[jay68802]

Woodbine Race #6: 10/27/17


:1: Conquest Boogaloo 3-1 A class drop and a trainer change. Speed figures are good and shows 3 races that will win here. Trainer change was in June, to a low % trainer off a break, entered for 23,500 here, 2 works in July and only 1 work since are all red flags. Pass.

:2: Macho Brew 8-1 Interesting, jockey change is a plus and the last race looks good. Trainer is good. Love the last race pace line, but, last time at this level beat 2 home. Gets contender status here, but only as a saver win bet.

:3: Comedy Gold 30-1 Best speed figure was in a sprint at Fort Erie. Declining figures since, and a non-winner at this distance. Toss.

:4: Beyond Smart 10-1 Bullet work, but only the best of 9. Dangerous if the speed is holding. Could be alone on the front in this race and must be respected for that alone. Last speed figure and the fact he also does not "need the lead" has to be respected also. Contender.

:5: Oakton 6-1 Has to be looked at on his back speed figures and the class drop. But since the claim, declining speed figures along with the class drops, and the jockey choice tells the bad news. Doubtful.

:6: Thunder Point 4-1 Unlike the :5:, good news after the claim. A win and a good speed figure. Up one class is acceptable and the jockey and trainer do well in this situation. Contender.

:7: Gray Phantom 8-1 Form is good here and his best workout came after his best lifetime speed figure. My Pick.

:8: Malibu Wood 30-1 Might be involved early. Toss.

:9: Viva Lad 5-1 Drop in class and form is strong. Has run well in slow and fast pace races. Speed figures are solid. Without the :4: in this race I would pick on top. Strong contender.

:10: Niigon's Glory 15-1 Can win this in one situation, needs a very strong contested pace. Do not see that happening here. Pass.

:11: Cito 20-1 All speed figures are light and the drop in class in the last race also came with a decline in the speed figure. Toss.

:12: Atipical 15-1 Another light speed figure horse here and although the jockey and trainer here are good, I think he is just a little behind the other contenders here. Pass.

[Immortal6]

My top contender to win :7:
Top 4 to get a piece :6: :10: :9: :1:

I think the winner will need to be on/near the lead to win this one (of course I thought that for yesterday's race as well).

I'm thinking the :1: Takes the lead setting fairly pedestrian fractions of 23.5/48/1:12.5. If this holds up I see no reason this horse doesn't lull the field to sleep on the front end and possibly wins it. However, the :7: looks to be the safest bet due to his ability to (hopefully) stay close to the front runners no matter the pace and pounce in the stretch.

Depending on the odds I'll likely key the :7: over the others.

[AstrosFan]

Woodbine Race #6: 10/27/17


:9: Viva Lad 5-1 Drop in class and form is strong. Has run well in slow and fast pace races. Speed figures are solid. Without the :4: in this race I would pick on top. Strong contender.

.


:4: scratched

[jay68802]

Big Scratch. Puts the :9: in the ideal situation. Odds will decide the size of the bet, 5-2 is the target. Becomes the pick with the :7:,:6:,:2:.

[AstrosFan]

Will Pays

[AstrosFan]

:1: Conquest Boogaloo isn't even warming up!

Has been standing at the 1/8th pole for quite a few mins. now. :eek:

Let's see what happens!

[Tee]

I keep coming back to the :1: & :5:

[Tee]

I keep coming back to the :1: & :5:

Nothing quite like picking the la-xacta!! :D

[AstrosFan]

Big Scratch. Puts the :9: in the ideal situation. Odds will decide the size of the bet, 5-2 is the target. Becomes the pick with the :7:,:6:,:2:.


:cool:


$448 Payoff on a (4 horse box = $24) $1 super

[AstrosFan]

My top contender to win :7:
Top 4 to get a piece :6: :10: :9: :1:

I think the winner will need to be on/near the lead to win this one (of course I thought that for yesterday's race as well).

I'm thinking the :1: Takes the lead setting fairly pedestrian fractions of 23.5/48/1:12.5. If this holds up I see no reason this horse doesn't lull the field to sleep on the front end and possibly wins it. However, the :7: looks to be the safest bet due to his ability to (hopefully) stay close to the front runners no matter the pace and pounce in the stretch.

Depending on the odds I'll likely key the :7: over the others.

Great handicapping


I love the 5-1 price we got today! :ThmbUp:


Why aren't we on our own show?! Eat your heart out TVG :lol:

[Immortal6]

My top contender to win :7:
Top 4 to get a piece :6: :10: :9: :1:

I think the winner will need to be on/near the lead to win this one (of course I thought that for yesterday's race as well).

I'm thinking the :1: Takes the lead setting fairly pedestrian fractions of 23.5/48/1:12.5. If this holds up I see no reason this horse doesn't lull the field to sleep on the front end and possibly wins it. However, the :7: looks to be the safest bet due to his ability to (hopefully) stay close to the front runners no matter the pace and pounce in the stretch.

Depending on the odds I'll likely key the :7: over the others.

Woo! Win, exacta, tri, and thanks to Jay super. I liked nothing about the :2: but threw it into the 3/4 spot in the super due to your recommendation!

[Immortal6]

Great handicapping


I love the 5-1 price we got today! :ThmbUp:


Why aren't we on our own show?! Eat your heart out TVG :lol:

Thank you, great work all around!

[FakeNameChanged]

Thank you, great work all around!
Astros and Immortal, Good picks.

[AstrosFan]

Astros and Immortal, Good picks.

Thank you sir :)


Guess who ran second? The :9: :rolleyes:

Some horses just can't and won't pass others in the stretch run

[jay68802]

Thank you sir :)


Guess who ran second? The :9: :rolleyes:

Some horses just can't and won't pass others in the stretch run

Good job guys, changing my mind cost a good win bet, but the exacta and tri payouts made money.

One more thing, Let's Go Dodgers! :)

[AstrosFan]

One more thing, Let's Go Dodgers! :)

Oh those are fighting words!:p

[jay68802]

Oh those are fighting words!:p

Next time you pick a winner, I will buy you a beer.

[jay68802]

Delta Downs Race #9:


:1: Temprano 15-1 Can't complain about this guy. Has been improving and has a good trainer. Is going to be involved in the pace and that has been a problem. Can't play in this situation. Pass.

:2: M B Puck 30-1 Name sounds like a Quarter Horse, and well.....

:3: Tip Tap Tapizar 2-1 Class is here, but has earned 2 good speed figures and 3 others have done better in this race. Would not surprise me if he wins on class alone but if he beats me, he beats me. Pass.

:4: Masterly 3-1 Thornton is up and will give a good ride. Can't get exited about what looks like a chaser in this race. Out.

:5: No One Greater 6-1 If you like this horse, I can't blame you. His two best races have been at this distance and a very nice recent work. Good claiming horse. Pass.

:6: Queeten 8-1 If you blame the turf for the last one, you have a good horse in this race. Trainer and jockey are solid, and steady works make me think he is ready. My pick.

:7: Set Hut 5-1 C J is on and will get this guy close to the pace. Speed figures say that he is just not good enough. Pass.

:8: Case's Ticket 12-1 A steady runner that might just survive in this race. Solid numbers with the trainer and just looks like a horse that has some heart. Contender.

:9: Quality Production 8-1 Will get the lead in this race at some point. Like the trainer and jockey and in this race it makes a difference. Contender.

[FakeNameChanged]

#9-DeD-1 Mile Alw-39K
My contenders are:
:1: Temprano 15-1 Fast, might break on top from pp1, but looks outclassed at this distance
:3: Tip Tap Tapizar-2-1. Looming Class is the question, has the look of #1 at Woodbine yesterday. If he's close to his recent competition, would be a cake walk. Raced 7 days ago.
:4: Masterly 3-1. should be involved with his speed. Step up in class. LIke that he worked 5f only 4 days ago in heavy conditions
:6: Queeten 8-1. Should be near the lead with the 1 & 9, distance a question, and doesn't appear to like running around a lot of turns.
:9: Quality Production 8-1. Would be fighting for lead from outside post. Lack of work a question.

My picks are: :4: Masterly :6: Queeten :9: Quality Production :3: Tip Tap Tapizar.

[Immortal6]

:1: should set the early fractions, and frankly needs to get the lead to have any shot of getting a piece. He should be setting fractions like this is a 6F race 23/46 but will be overtaken by the :9: and :4: halfway through the far turn. The :3: is intriguing based on class alone but his figs and times just seem dreadful at 2-1. The :6: and :8: will be too far off the pace to threaten the :4: and :9: imo.

Win :9:

Ex Box :9::4:

Others to use underneath in tri/super :6::3::8: