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Ray2000
10-22-2017, 01:43 PM
If your system is just bet the best driver and ignore everything else you're in trouble.

These ROI's are for "BEST" in the category
I was surprised to see how low the ROI is on betting the driver.


11,702 races in 2017

ROI Category
0.88 My speed Ave last 3
0.84 Morning Line
0.82 TM Speed Ave last 3
0.81 Tm Class Ave last 3
0.80 Year's Earnings
0.78 Post
0.77 Trainer
0.77 Final Time last race
0.74 Class drop
0.72 4th Quarter time
0.72 2 Year Win %
0.71 Early Speed (ave ground gain/loss to half pole)
0.69 Driver

tamaharbor
10-22-2017, 03:55 PM
Ray,

Instead of 'average of last three', have you ever looked at 'median of last three'? Just wondering. Thanks!

Ray2000
10-22-2017, 06:32 PM
Ray,

Instead of 'average of last three', have you ever looked at 'median of last three'? Just wondering. Thanks!

Years back when I first started developing the program, I used the trend function in VBA and it worked OK as long as it didn't run into too many "form reversals".

I tested average and median but I don't recall much of a difference. The hardest part is finding 3 good back races to use. If there's a qualifier line or break line then you have to go back 4 or five weeks to get race times, and it's questionable if races that far back mean anything.

tyler522
10-27-2017, 05:51 AM
Ray, how do you derive at MY SPEED number & what is ROI on avg $ per start ? Thanks for sharing

Ray2000
10-27-2017, 07:03 AM
Ray, how do you derive at MY SPEED number & what is ROI on avg $ per start ? Thanks for sharing


It's a formula I use to get a speed rating for a past performance line.

It adjusts the final race time (and 4thQ time) by the Track Speed rating, Driver "type", number of racing "Wides", DTV, and Post start ,(1st trailer = post 1.5). It then gives double weight to the final quarter time.

It averages those ratings with the number of usable starts not older than 40 days.

"ROI on ave $ per start" is just the return using only the horse with the best average in the category to make the pick. Inside post to breaks ties. It usually is the average of the last 3 good starts. If the TM speeds were 85, -99, 87, break, 86, the TMaster average would be 86