Morning line and final odds

[porchy44]

As the years go by, I have noticed this more frequently. The winning horse is at least half it's morning line. This is "despite" who makes the morning line. obvious examples are a 12/1 morning line winning at 6/1. Or a 8/1 morning line winning at 7/2.

I am assuming it is because as more players are leaving the game, most of the money bet is "sophisticated" money.

I am not saying there are no overlays left, but as pointed out Ad nauseam, the game is becoming more and more difficult.

[cj]

I'd also say morning lines just aren't very good most places, and are downright awful at some.

[porchy44]

I'd also say morning lines just aren't very good most places, and are downright awful at some.

Yes, but are the "morning lines" worse today than they were, say three years ago ?

[thaskalos]

Yes, but are the "morning lines" worse today than they were, say three years ago ?

Maybe not...but there are more late scratches now than ever before. And that brings the odds further down than they would otherwise be.

[Mulerider]

I'd also say morning lines just aren't very good most places, and are downright awful at some.

That's true, and it's especially problematic for tournament players in the pick-and-pray format. Players that can make a more accurate prediction of final odds than the published ML have a definite edge, IMO. No doubt it's harder than it looks, though.

[CincyHorseplayer]

The effect on me is only slightly on my bottom line but more so that I am passing a lot more races. And I hate that! But I got into a bad habit of playing races where the profit potential was just not worth any real risk. Betting the "other" contender that is not bet is the key to avoiding this plummet in price. My average mutual this year is 12.31. Plus playing sequential bets keeps me out of the single race obsession. This is my idea of player balance for what it's worth.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

The effect on me is only slightly on my bottom line but more so that I am passing a lot more races. And I hate that! But I got into a bad habit of playing races where the profit potential was just not worth any real risk. Betting the "other" contender that is not bet is the key to avoiding this plummet in price. My average mutual this year is 12.31. Plus playing sequential bets keeps me out of the single race obsession. This is my idea of player balance for what it's worth.

$12.31, not bad at all. Mine is like $3.40 haha

[CincyHorseplayer]

$12.31, not bad at all. Mine is like $3.40 haha

From 2000 to 2012 it stayed right around 9.40. Since I started tracking my own bet stats more in depth I simply have not split hairs on contenders as much. Sometimes, but dominantly if I have contenders at 5/2 and 5-1 I just bet the 5-1 to win and double key both in exactas. This has led to the mutual increase and also to a cash rate over 50% which is bankroll friendly! Picked that up off my buddy Nitro. Anyway give it a try MPJ!