PDA

View Full Version : Rut


menifee
10-15-2017, 08:05 PM
I have had a tough year handicapping. Just can't seem to find a winner literally. I've stopped playing after Saratoga and have just been handicapping replays. I'm still terrible - I looked at Woodbine today and would not have had a single winner. I feel like a beginner again. Anyone ever else find themselves in this position? I feel like a hitter in a 4 month slump.

judd
10-15-2017, 09:06 PM
Take a break

AstrosFan
10-15-2017, 09:14 PM
I have had a tough year handicapping. Just can't seem to find a winner literally. I've stopped playing after Saratoga and have just been handicapping replays. I'm still terrible - I looked at Woodbine today and would not have had a single winner. I feel like a beginner again. Anyone ever else find themselves in this position? I feel like a hitter in a 4 month slump.

I disagree with taking a break. As a handicapper you know what your strongest points are, along with your weak areas in the game. You have to concentrate on those positives.

Woodbine on a windy day, on a bogged down turf course and a big stakes day isn't a great place to start your resurgence.

For me, I know my biggest scores have come on certain exotic wagers on certain circuits. I won't touch stakes races, I won't touch inconsistent crappy racing like Turf Paradise or anything coming out of the state of PA, so find your niche after sitting down to figure out what you excel at as a horseplayer.

It is very hard to sit on your hands, but with so many races available to wager on daily, you ONLY bet the races you feel strongly in and pass the rest.

I personally hate maiden races and I can't stand betting grass races b/c of the funky times, pace setup, wide gates starting too close to the turn and my personal list goes on and on.

How many times do you think we as a gambler bet a race we don't like and win? Very VERY few.

ReplayRandall
10-15-2017, 09:38 PM
I have had a tough year handicapping. Just can't seem to find a winner literally. I've stopped playing after Saratoga and have just been handicapping replays. I'm still terrible - I looked at Woodbine today and would not have had a single winner. I feel like a beginner again. Anyone ever else find themselves in this position? I feel like a hitter in a 4 month slump.

During this time of year, just before some horses go on winter breaks, look for just 2 things from the PP's, horse for courses and horse for a specific distance/surface. Trainers are trying to cash on a horse's best track and/or distance, don't be fooled by FTS's or a horse trying something new for the first time at this late stage of the year. Also be suspicious of significant class drops which make no reasonable sense.....Think rationally as if you trained/owned the horse yourself, how would you spot your horse to give it the best possible chance of scoring a nice paycheck without losing the horse via a claim? Or are you dumping the horse and trying to get it claimed?

Lastly, what is your intuition trying to tell you while you're handicapping? Do you change your mind as you go to make your wagers? Start keeping a diary/records of some sort, and see if your rational means of handicapping is to blame or do you keep second guessing yourself via your intuitive thoughts or "gut feeling"?......In the end, your subconscious mind has the answer, just give it the command to find the solution.....Your conscious mind might be severely fatigued, for personal reasons other than handicapping, you just need a layoff.

Don't worry, it will come back to you.

jay68802
10-16-2017, 12:54 AM
Every handicapper has gone through what you are experiencing right now. Personally I like to get out my go to handicapping books and read them for what seems to be the hundredth time again.(Tells you how many slumps I have had) I have found that a refresher course gets me back going sooner than if I don't do it. And keep swinging, don't let the slump be the reason you did not play that "horse you loved". Nothing worse than sitting at home and thinking of not playing a winner. Replay had some good advice also. tracking what and why you are playing a horse and the reasons you are not playing a horse might soon reveal some small details you might be missing.

proximity
10-16-2017, 01:52 AM
I have had a tough year handicapping. Just can't seem to find a winner literally. I've stopped playing after Saratoga and have just been handicapping replays. I'm still terrible - I looked at Woodbine today and would not have had a single winner. I feel like a beginner again. Anyone ever else find themselves in this position? I feel like a hitter in a 4 month slump.

certainly every gambler who has been on here as long as we have has been in this terrible position. and it is a position that is so common and so important that andy beyer started his first book, picking winners, talking about it. eventually he broke his bad streak with a horse named sun in action and thank god for us all that he did.

gambling can be a brutal endeavor and often makes no sense. the other night I went 4/9 on my key horses in hong kong....... where i'm a total novice. the next day i play five tracks....four of which i'm ahead at for the year....and lose at all five of them in my worst outing of the entire year. makes no sense.

good luck to you Menifee and hope you soon hit your own "sun in action" and turn it all around.

--proximity

Poindexter
10-16-2017, 09:27 AM
This is the toughest part about gambling. These streaks can end today, or they can linger for months Doesn't matter if you are betting horses, games, poker.......these streaks happen every so often and when they do, mentally they drain you and cause you to make even more mistakes. Taking a break makes sense, at least for a bit, but doesn't mean that when you come back anything will be different, you rut may still be with you. I think probably the best thing you can do is cut your betting significantly(50% or 60%) until thing feels right to you. Your bankroll theoretically has you prepared for these streaks, so if you are losing at a rate of 50% or 60% less of what your bankroll tells you to bet, you should be okay until things get back to normal. If you still find yourself still losing too much keep reducing. Once things seem to get back to normal, tread cautiously. If you normally bet $200 to win on a horse and you cut it down to $80 and you feel like things are beginning to turn, go up to $125, then $150, then when you are sure things are right go back to $200.

I don't know whether you line races or not, but one of the advantages of doing so is that during slumps like these you can at least look and see what is winning. Are horses that you make 20-1 winning at 3-1 or are horses you make 8-1 winning at 7-1. Neither is going to help your bankroll any but at least it gives you another gauge of how well or poorly you are handicapping. Also it tells you where you need to focus your energies on in your post race analysis, which should be doing a lot while you are struggling.

When you gamble seriously, streaks like this are inevitable. Anyone who gambles seriously and has done so for a long time, knows they happen and unforutnately they happen too often. If they tell you otherwise they are either lying or there streak is just around the corner(and their will be worse than yours). It is one reason that I think a pure Kelly Betting strategy is extremely dangerous for gamblers. Because when we get into these kind of "ruts" are limitations take over and any form of objective thought process goes out the window. Even if we are using mechanical methods we can still rationalize ourselves on and off of horses(games whatever) and trust me when things are going bad, your decision making is typically worse.

DeltaLover
10-16-2017, 10:09 AM
I have had a tough year handicapping. Just can't seem to find a winner literally. I've stopped playing after Saratoga and have just been handicapping replays. I'm still terrible - I looked at Woodbine today and would not have had a single winner. I feel like a beginner again. Anyone ever else find themselves in this position? I feel like a hitter in a 4 month slump.

The game is almost impossible to beat and experiencing long losing streaks seems inevitable assuming a long enough sample; it is the norm than the exception to experience such an outcome and you should not be surprised at all.

Horse bettors tend to underestimate their opponents and also overestimate the ratio of handicapping skill over luck in general; this mentality combined a relatively small bankroll results to the perfect recipe for disaster.

I think that first of all, you should lower your expectations from the game, slow down in your betting and spend more time thinking about it; building a historical database and learn how to mine it is probably the second best thing you can do (your first option would be to simply quit albeit this is not a realistic option for a horse player!)

thaskalos
10-16-2017, 10:19 AM
If I could...I would try to convince every serious horseplayer to keep underbetting his bankroll. I don't care if underbetting the bankroll doesn't "maximize earnings"; it helps maintain the bettor's sanity during the downturns...and that's infinitely more important...IMO. Taking time off during the losing streaks never made sense to me...nor do I like the idea of drastically reducing the size of my wagers when I am "running bad". The losing streaks come unannounced...and they leave just as abruptly as they've appeared. The "right thing", as I see it, is to persevere during the downturns...assuming, of course, that we are still playing our "A" game. And underbetting our bankroll is a big help in that regard.

If your bankroll is $2,000 and you think that this entitles you to make $50 win-wagers...see if your temperament, and your bottom line, don't improve by cutting your bet-size down to $25. Our profit expectation isn't just a cut-and-dry ROI calculation based on the sums that we wager. It takes "creativity" to beat this game...and it's easier to be "creative" when we are underbetting our bankroll.

Some smart guy once said that everything that we do usually takes twice as long, and costs twice as much, as we first thought it would. And I say that our losing streaks can come twice as often, and stay twice as long, as we've initially figured they would...and we have to prepare accordingly. You can't be a wide-eyed optimist in this game...if you are a serious player.

Poindexter
10-16-2017, 11:01 AM
If I could...I would try to convince every serious horseplayer to keep underbetting his bankroll. I don't care if underbetting the bankroll doesn't "maximize earnings"; it helps maintain the bettor's sanity during the downturns...and that's infinitely more important...IMO. Taking time off during the losing streaks never made sense to me...nor do I like the idea of drastically reducing the size of my wagers when I am "running bad". The losing streaks come unannounced...and they leave just as abruptly as they've appeared. The "right thing", as I see it, is to persevere during the downturns...assuming, of course, that we are still playing our "A" game. And underbetting our bankroll is a big help in that regard.

If your bankroll is $2,000 and you think that this entitles you to make $50 win-wagers...see if your temperament, and your bottom line, don't improve by cutting your bet-size down to $25. Our profit expectation isn't just a cut-and-dry ROI calculation based on the sums that we wager. It takes "creativity" to beat this game...and it's easier to be "creative" when we are underbetting our bankroll.
Some smart guy once said that everything that we do usually takes twice as long, and costs twice as much, as we first thought it would. And I say that our losing streaks can come twice as often, and stay twice as long, as we've initially figured they would...and we have to prepare accordingly. You can't be a wide-eyed optimist in this game...if you are a serious player.

We are not talking about a downturn here. I would never advise reducing your betting during a downturn (if you do so you will constantly bet more on your losing bets than winning bets-bet $20 per horse then lose 15 in a row, go down to $15 per horse start winning go back to $20 per horse lose 10 in a row........). We are talking something a lot more pronounced. It is analagous to a team like the Cleveland Cavaliers of last year, fully healthy, losing 11 games in a row(not 4 games in a row). You know when you are there. These extremely bad runs do not happen very often, but when you are in them, you know it. This is when you have to scale back your betting (whether it is at loss 5 for the Cavaliers or loss 8 is based on judgement-which will vary from player to player). I don't care how much you are underbetting your bankroll, these runs shake you. Also why do you want to make less during the normal ebbs and flows of gambling (assuming you make money) to protect your ability to ride out the super slump which may not come for another 5 years. . When things get back to normal and confidence is restored, you can go back to attacking on your normal bankroll.

thaskalos
10-16-2017, 11:38 AM
We are not talking about a downturn here. I would never advise reducing your betting during a downturn (if you do so you will constantly bet more on your losing bets than winning bets-bet $20 per horse then lose 15 in a row, go down to $15 per horse start winning go back to $20 per horse lose 10 in a row........). We are talking something a lot more pronounced. It is analagous to a team like the Cleveland Cavaliers of last year, fully healthy, losing 11 games in a row(not 4 games in a row). You know when you are there. These extremely bad runs do not happen very often, but when you are in them, you know it. This is when you have to scale back your betting (whether it is at loss 5 for the Cavaliers or loss 8 is based on judgement-which will vary from player to player). I don't care how much you are underbetting your bankroll, these runs shake you. Also why do you want to make less during the normal ebbs and flows of gambling (assuming you make money) to protect your ability to ride out the super slump which may not come for another 5 years. . When things get back to normal and confidence is restored, you can go back to attacking on your normal bankroll.

My horse-betting experience obviously does nor resemble yours. My "confidence level" does not fluctuate in accordance with my short-term betting results...and I can never tell that I am "in the middle of a super slump". On a typical day...I will lose 15 bets in a row and, just as the feeling that a "slump" might be coming on enters my mind...my next bet brings me all my money back. My losses come in bunches, while my wins are isolated...and losing 20+ bets in a row is a normal occurrence for me. Also...I am not "protecting my ability to ride out the super slump which may not come for another 5 years"...when I am underbetting my bankroll. In fact...I only used the word "underbetting" because I often see an wildly-optimistic attitude exhibited here when it comes to "bankroll management". I see people who claim that 3% of bankroll is a reasonable win-betting unit...which I, myself, consider to be a gross overstatement. To me, what I do with my bankroll isn't "underbetting" at all...it's the soundest money-management plan that I could come up with for my wagering needs...and the size of my bankroll. IMO...the bigger bankrolls demand "safer" handling...because they can't be easily replaced.

I wasn't addressing YOU with my prior post...that's why I didn't quote your post along with mine. I never meant to imply that you were in any way "wrong" with what you said earlier...and you are welcomed to disagree with any opinion that I am offering here. I find myself in disagreement with most of what you say here too...and that's perfectly fine. Serious horseplayers are highly opinionated...and they often disagree with one-another.

Poindexter
10-16-2017, 12:43 PM
My horse-betting experience obviously does nor resemble yours. My "confidence level" does not fluctuate in accordance with my short-term betting results...and I can never tell that I am "in the middle of a super slump". On a typical day...I will lose 15 bets in a row and, just as the feeling that a "slump" might be coming on enters my mind...my next bet brings me all my money back. My losses come in bunches, while my wins are isolated...and losing 20+ bets in a row is a normal occurrence for me. Also...I am not "protecting my ability to ride out the super slump which may not come for another 5 years"...when I am underbetting my bankroll. In fact...I only used the word "underbetting" because I often see an wildly-optimistic attitude exhibited here when it comes to "bankroll management". I see people who claim that 3% of bankroll is a reasonable win-betting unit...which I, myself, consider to be a gross overstatement. To me, what I do with my bankroll isn't "underbetting" at all...it's the soundest money-management plan that I could come up with for my wagering needs...and the size of my bankroll. IMO...the bigger bankrolls demand "safer" handling...because they can't be easily replaced.

I wasn't addressing YOU with my prior post...that's why I didn't quote your post along with mine. I never meant to imply that you were in any way "wrong" with what you said earlier...and you are welcomed to disagree with any opinion that I am offering here. I find myself in disagreement with most of what you say here too...and that's perfectly fine. Serious horseplayers are highly opinionated...and they often disagree with one-another.

Wow. For some reason I seem to get under your skin. I Think. Not sure why. I. Every time I disagree with you in even the smallest way you seem to take it so personally (once again, I think).

If you find yourself in disagreement with that I post, call me on it. Why would you not? I promise you, your not going to hurt my feelings (that should not deter you anyhow). That is what this is, a discussion forum. I don't own a pair of kit gloves and I don't expect anyone else posting here to either. If we don't discuss disagreements how do we learn?

Regarding your confidence level not fluctuating, that is a very strong attribute to have in this game. Hey if you can get away with riding out your really bad streaks unflustered, keep on with your bad self. But for those who cannot or choose not, there are alternatives and I presented one.

thaskalos
10-16-2017, 01:34 PM
Wow. For some reason I seem to get under your skin. I Think. Not sure why. I. Every time I disagree with you in even the smallest way you seem to take it so personally (once again, I think).

If you find yourself in disagreement with that I post, call me on it. Why would you not? I promise you, your not going to hurt my feelings (that should not deter you anyhow). That is what this is, a discussion forum. I don't own a pair of kit gloves and I don't expect anyone else posting here to either. If we don't discuss disagreements how do we learn?

Regarding your confidence level not fluctuating, that is a very strong attribute to have in this game. Hey if you can get away with riding out your really bad streaks unflustered, keep on with your bad self. But for those who cannot or choose not, there are alternatives and I presented one.

I honestly think that this is the very first time that I've ever written something like this to you...so, I don't know why you think that you get "under my skin". I recall one other interaction between us, when you criticized me for giving "irresponsible" betting advice to our highly-impressionable folks here...and I don't remember giving you much in the way of a reply then. But I could be wrong.

Truth be told...I now try to avoid the "learning" discussions that I used to get into here in the past. I find that an online forum isn't really the proper venue by which to try and "teach", or "learn"...or to change anyone's mind. In the end...it all becomes just a waste of time. The reason that I responded to you as I did was because your post seemed to me to imply that I was somehow replying to something that you yourself had said earlier...when the reality is that I wasn't thinking about your post at all when I was typing.

Yes...I disagree with most of what you say here...and you probably disagree with most of what I say. How could it be otherwise...when our experiences in the game are so dissimilar? As I said...there is nothing at all wrong with "disagreeing"...unless we insist on changing each-other's mind. And we aren't.

CincyHorseplayer
10-16-2017, 01:38 PM
I tend to agree with Thask here. Plus I don't like the cookie cutter, hum drum % approach. It assumes you are on your A game at all times and IMO rarely play. Safety in infrequency. Or that you are willing to go broke and just replace the bankroll and do another set til you do win. I could be wrong about how other players think but I have seen enough evidence to know this is a real phenomenon.

So I come at this from a different direction. I come up with a $ number that I need to wager to be able to make a significant profit from the race. And then I come up with a % of bankroll I am willing to part with for any single wagering day. And that number is 5-8% of the total bank. The proportional numbers of % of bank per bet are not important to me. Only staying within these parameters.

The other thing is don't limit yourself by time or geography. Explore different tracks til you have a feel for them all across the country or even the betting world. After 20+ years in this game I have developed tastes for turf, turf sprints, maidens, and low level tracks. I find you can easily lose on the best bloodstock as the worst. Most longshot winners come from low level racing IMO.

A lot of good advice on here. I have had brief periods where I have stopped and did the refresher course as someone suggested. Or scaled down. It's your sanity and your money on the line. Forget somebody else's bravado with what is yours. Matching their machismo while going broke is only going to hurt you. My second paragraph is how I play. That is my comfort zone. And it keeps me in the game. Over time profits come. That's the goal. I stick with what my stats tell me to do and still swing big on other bets. I get some of each most years.

thaskalos
10-16-2017, 02:02 PM
I tend to agree with Thask here. Plus I don't like the cookie cutter, hum drum % approach. It assumes you are on your A game at all times and IMO rarely play. Safety in infrequency. Or that you are willing to go broke and just replace the bankroll and do another set til you do win. I could be wrong about how other players think but I have seen enough evidence to know this is a real phenomenon.

So I come at this from a different direction. I come up with a $ number that I need to wager to be able to make a significant profit from the race. And then I come up with a % of bankroll I am willing to part with for any single wagering day. And that number is 5-8% of the total bank. The proportional numbers of % of bank per bet are not important to me. Only staying within these parameters.

The other thing is don't limit yourself by time or geography. Explore different tracks til you have a feel for them all across the country or even the betting world. After 20+ years in this game I have developed tastes for turf, turf sprints, maidens, and low level tracks. I find you can easily lose on the best bloodstock as the worst. Most longshot winners come from low level racing IMO.

A lot of good advice on here. I have had brief periods where I have stopped and did the refresher course as someone suggested. Or scaled down. It's your sanity and your money on the line. Forget somebody else's bravado with what is yours. Matching their machismo while going broke is only going to hurt you. My second paragraph is how I play. That is my comfort zone. And it keeps me in the game. Over time profits come. That's the goal. I stick with what my stats tell me to do and still swing big on other bets. I get some of each most years.

I agree completely! :ThmbUp:

When we offer opinions back and forth here, it seems as if we are offering "advice" to each other...and that's the wrong way of looking at our interactions...IMO.

No one here can know what someone else "needs", or what he "should do"...and what works for one person cannot be relied upon to help another. My way of doing things may not be suitable for you...and vice versa. The most that we could do here is relay our own personal opinions based on our particular vantage point...and the hope is that these personal opinions might provide some assistance as we each try to find our own path to whatever we are looking for in this game.

As the Buddha said:

"Here is what I think. If you find that it helps you, embrace it. If not...then leave it alone."

Poindexter
10-16-2017, 02:23 PM
I honestly think that this is the very first time that I've ever written something like this to you...so, I don't know why you think that you get "under my skin". I recall one other interaction between us, when you criticized me for giving "irresponsible" betting advice to our highly-impressionable folks here...and I don't remember giving you much in the way of a reply then. But I could be wrong.

Truth be told...I now try to avoid the "learning" discussions that I used to get into here in the past. I find that an online forum isn't really the proper venue by which to try and "teach", or "learn"...or to change anyone's mind. In the end...it all becomes just a waste of time. The reason that I responded to you as I did was because your post seemed to me to imply that I was somehow replying to something that you yourself had said earlier...when the reality is that I wasn't thinking about your post at all when I was typing.

Yes...I disagree with most of what you say here...and you probably disagree with most of what I say. How could it be otherwise...when our experiences in the game are so dissimilar? As I said...there is nothing at all wrong with "disagreeing"...unless we insist on changing each-other's mind. And we aren't.

That is actuallly too bad, because it is this type of discussion which has made this forum such a valuable place over it's many years of existence. I was learning from and reading this forum long before I ever posted. Much of what I do today, is based on building blocks I picked up over the years here and built upon. It is not about me trying to change your mind or you trying to change my mind and you will rarely see me engaging in that activity (other than the subject of takeouts or rebates :lol:). It is about a bunch of us discussing a topic and the reader forming their own opinions and conclusions. I am not selling anything, nor are you. It is not about any of us changing the world as individuals, it is about collectively sharing our opinions and viewpoints and providing value to the reader (which includes us) who may not even be able to articulate much of what was learned here, but assuredly if they spend enough time here they are learning.

thaskalos
10-16-2017, 03:04 PM
That is actuallly too bad, because it is this type of discussion which has made this forum such a valuable place over it's many years of existence. I was learning from and reading this forum long before I ever posted. Much of what I do today, is based on building blocks I picked up over the years here and built upon. It is not about me trying to change your mind or you trying to change my mind and you will rarely see me engaging in that activity (other than the subject of takeouts or rebates :lol:). It is about a bunch of us discussing a topic and the reader forming their own opinions and conclusions. I am not selling anything, nor are you. It is not about any of us changing the world as individuals, it is about collectively sharing our opinions and viewpoints and providing value to the reader (which includes us) who may not even be able to articulate much of what was learned here, but assuredly if they spend enough time here they are learning.

This is pretty close to what I said in the post right before yours. :ThmbUp:

But our conversations, which start out civil, sometimes turn into "arguments"...when we try to prove that our opinions are more valid than those with whom we disagree. That's what I've seen...and that's why I've decided to "stop arguing" about horses. I've now taken my "arguments" to the off-topics section...where they belong. :)

I've made a habit of talking to a couple of the members here on the phone. In one phone conversation...I got to know them better than I had while online-chatting with them for YEARS. That's what exposed me to the limitations of online-chatting...and that's when I decided to get less "serious" about online debates.

AstrosFan
10-16-2017, 03:29 PM
I've made a habit of talking to a couple of the members here on the phone. In one phone conversation...I got to know them better than I had while online-chatting with them for YEARS. That's what exposed me to the limitations of online-chatting...and that's when I decided to get less "serious" about online debates.

:ThmbUp: I enjoyed this last paragraph immensely and that's why I dislike texting and / or chatting via email. Humans are slowly losing the art of in-person conversations. Every time I go out, someone has to have their phone in the palm of their hand or on the table when out to eat dinner. It's truly ridiculous! The internet in general has created so many positive things and so many negatives too.

Back to the rut topic...

Record keeping is important in this game and we can study the hell out of any race, but it's what we do betting wise that makes or breaks us.

AndyC
10-16-2017, 04:42 PM
Because most handicapping has an element of subjectivity, it would be foolish to overlook the affects that a prolonged losing streak can have on the decision making process. If you find yourself second-guessing your decisions it's probably time to back off.

I find the same to be true for the betting process. A bettor comfortable with $500 win bets might find a jump to the $1000 level to be uncomfortable whereby it affects the entire handicapping handicapping process. If you have to talk yourself into making a higher level bet you probably aren't ready to play at that level. I know a few well-known handicappers who can't pull the trigger on a large bet. That's not a knock it is reality. Each player has to find their own comfort zone.

AltonKelsey
10-16-2017, 06:08 PM
I suspect its not the size of the bet itself that's hoses people, but the difference between that bet and their normal wager.

So if you're a $100 bettor, and step up to $500 for a 'prime bet', you have too much ego invested in the play , and nerves set in.

If the horse loses, you suffer a double blow, to your wallet and your self esteem.

Something to be said for avoiding the issue and betting the same or nearly so on everything.

Afleet
10-16-2017, 07:35 PM
I have had a tough year handicapping. Just can't seem to find a winner literally. I've stopped playing after Saratoga and have just been handicapping replays. I'm still terrible - I looked at Woodbine today and would not have had a single winner. I feel like a beginner again. Anyone ever else find themselves in this position? I feel like a hitter in a 4 month slump.

I had my ass handed to me @Woodbine yesterday. I thought I was reading the wrong PPs. Normally I would be playing Kee at this time of the year. Can't wait until Oaklawn opens. No BS turf races where a drop dead closer like Rainha De Bateria gets sent to the lead for some unknown reason and fades in the stretch.

menifee
10-17-2017, 12:18 AM
Guys,

Thanks for the great input. I've decided to take a long break. Usually I take a long break after Breeders Cup till April, but this year I'll start it early. I may dip back in the pool on Breeders Cup with some plays as I've got some strong convictions in some of those races, but that's it.

The point about record keeping is tremendous. My large win bets are ok, everything else in the verticals and horizontals is pitiful.

Frankly, I think a lot of this has to do with confidence.

CincyHorseplayer
10-17-2017, 12:11 PM
Guys,

Thanks for the great input. I've decided to take a long break. Usually I take a long break after Breeders Cup till April, but this year I'll start it early. I may dip back in the pool on Breeders Cup with some plays as I've got some strong convictions in some of those races, but that's it.

The point about record keeping is tremendous. My large win bets are ok, everything else in the verticals and horizontals is pitiful.

Frankly, I think a lot of this has to do with confidence.

Can I suggest just one parting point? Play the BC. Get early PP's and get comfortable with them. Do extensive research into the prep races and the tracks that day. Map out a wagering strategy for each day. Put minimum odds on races where you take on verticals. Do everything you can to where you know win or lose there wasn't any effort left out. Then you can at least rest assured during your break that it is not entirely you at fault. And see where you are at in a few months. Good luck!

stuball
10-18-2017, 09:03 AM
I agree that bet size is such a individual thing that comfort zone is very very important -- I have always thought that a larger bankroll is the thing that would be key to success..Well the kids are all grown up and I am retired so the bankroll is bigger than in my younger years...but as many times as I have tried to increase my bets just as many times I have felt uncomfortable and selections that were clear before become clouded with doubt..what am I missing? Did I do something wrong? Also outside influences can affect your outlook and clarity....I am destined to be what I am ..I read about these people that say you have to make the jump and for a small percentage of people that probably works if you have the right mental makeup...Now that I am older I find physical problems get in the way...I just found out I have fistula (which is a hole) in my temporal bone..It contains the fluid that affects your balance..I had surgery on my ear about 5 years ago and I suspect it may be connected but the surgeon claims otherwise...it leaves me hard to focus and some dizziness......So it it what it is.....Slow is a meaningful word for me now..

Stuball :puke:

Whosonfirst
10-18-2017, 09:28 AM
I agree that bet size is such a individual thing that comfort zone is very very important -- I have always thought that a larger bankroll is the thing that would be key to success..Well the kids are all grown up and I am retired so the bankroll is bigger than in my younger years...but as many times as I have tried to increase my bets just as many times I have felt uncomfortable and selections that were clear before become clouded with doubt..what am I missing? Did I do something wrong? Also outside influences can affect your outlook and clarity....I am destined to be what I am ..I read about these people that say you have to make the jump and for a small percentage of people that probably works if you have the right mental makeup...Now that I am older I find physical problems get in the way...I just found out I have fistula (which is a hole) in my temporal bone..It contains the fluid that affects your balance..I had surgery on my ear about 5 years ago and I suspect it may be connected but the surgeon claims otherwise...it leaves me hard to focus and some dizziness......So it it what it is.....Slow is a meaningful word for me now..

Stuball :puke:
Stuball, my sympathies, as my wife has a similar malady since we've retired and I see her frustration. Focus on what's important

Prof.Factor
10-18-2017, 10:10 AM
Guys,

Thanks for the great input. I've decided to take a long break. Usually I take a long break after Breeders Cup till April, but this year I'll start it early. I may dip back in the pool on Breeders Cup with some plays as I've got some strong convictions in some of those races, but that's it.

The point about record keeping is tremendous. My large win bets are ok, everything else in the verticals and horizontals is pitiful.

Frankly, I think a lot of this has to do with confidence.

In contrary, I would be doing double duty in finding out WHY. No way I go 0 for 10 and not know why.
If you're "not even close" during the stretch then it's time to figure out why and not disregard it as some slump to
be ignored. Ignore it and it will repeat. It's time to up your game.
I think "down-time" is the worst thing for a handicapper. We need to be aware of everything, everyday. That's when you're confident because your are in-the-know.
Woodbine wasn't an excuse, I played that card.

ReplayRandall
10-18-2017, 10:40 AM
In contrary, I would be doing double duty in finding out WHY. No way I go 0 for 10 and not know why.
If you're "not even close" during the stretch then it's time to figure out why and not disregard it as some slump to
be ignored. Ignore it and it will repeat. It's time to up your game.
I think "down-time" is the worst thing for a handicapper. We need to be aware of everything, everyday. That's when you're confident because your are in-the-know.
Woodbine wasn't an excuse, I played that card.

Everyone has an opinion, some are good and some are like the above post....Everyone needs a layoff every once in awhile. When you start going 0 for 25, then you might want to start taking a look under the hood....Variance is a normal and expected part of the game, always.

zerosky
10-18-2017, 10:52 AM
Some great advice on this thread. The way I see it as long as you show long term profits then keep plugging away. Bets follow a bernoulli distribution they either win or they don't, long losing runs are expected. As long as you keep doing all the things that enable you to show long term profits then don't change anything.

That said taking a vacation now and again should also be part of the process.

NJ Stinks
10-18-2017, 12:46 PM
Not sure I've got anything of value to add but I'll make these points about my horse play:

1. I limit myself to a certain amount each month. Once in a while I do exceed that amount if I really feel like playing - like during the shortish Saratoga meet. But generally speaking if I drop my monthly bankroll in the first week of the month, I'm done playing that month.

2. Like Stuball, I can afford to increase my bets significantly from yesteryear - especially when I think back to my bankrolls when I was in my 20's or 30's. And once in a while I do leap in with both fists on a win bet. But I find I can enjoy ten bucks on a horse to win just as easy as a $20 bet.

3. That's not to say my wagering amounts have not increased over the years. Pick 3's, Pick 4's and Pick 5's make me spread. In fact, if I can't afford to cover every horse I consider a strong contender, I skip the sequence. Because of this last requirement of mine, I usually pass on Pick 4's and Pick 5's unless I comfortably single in at least one race.

Anyway, the monthly limit generally keeps me from losing so much that my handicapping confidence is shaken.

Prof.Factor
10-19-2017, 12:34 PM
In contrary, I would be doing double duty in finding out WHY. No way I go 0 for 10 and not know why.
If you're "not even close" during the stretch then it's time to figure out why and not disregard it as some slump to
be ignored. Ignore it and it will repeat. It's time to up your game.
I think "down-time" is the worst thing for a handicapper. We need to be aware of everything, everyday. That's when you're confident because your are in-the-know.
Woodbine wasn't an excuse, I played that card.
Everyone has an opinion, some are good and some are like the above post....Everyone needs a layoff every once in awhile. When you start going 0 for 25, then you might want to start taking a look under the hood....Variance is a normal and expected part of the game, always.
You again??
See something WRONG with MY opinion, do ya? .... go figure.


... 0 for 10

ultracapper
10-23-2017, 05:10 PM
We have definitely all been here, and handled it differently. The way I do it?

I never quit handicapping, but I quit trying to find winners, and therefore, I quit betting. I just handicap without trying to come to a conclusion, or opinion, if you prefer that word. Basically, I just handicap each horse as if they are in a vacuum, and ultimately, one will come up that I will "just kill myself" if I don't have money on it. Then I'll move forward and handicap the race with the ends of coming to a conclusion, or opinion, if you prefer.

There are hundreds of data points, literally, in the DRF in an 8 horse race, which makes for 1000s of combinations of data points. If you are handicapping down the hill at Santa Anita, and you are always looking for a horse that is cutting back off a turf route and dropping in class and has experience on the hill, and finished 3rd to 5th in it's most recent race, if that's the data combination that has proven to be a winner for you, you may go 15 races on that course before you see that form. Yet you still keep betting those downhill races, even though your proven data combinations aren't in order.

Maybe it's not your handicapping that's messed up at all. Maybe you just aren't seeing those proven combinations for what seems to be extended periods, and so you start fudging. "The only difference is it's cutting back off a dirt route. I'll bet it". "The only difference is it finished 6th in it's last race. I'll bet it", and on and on. Your handicapping is perfect, you just aren't getting what you know leads to successful bets, but you're shooting away anyhow, and now you think it's you.

KEEP RECORDS OF YOUR REASONS FOR BETTING.