Positive ROI for maiden/early speed system

[Bill Cullen]

I obtained a postive ROI in preliminary research of a brand new maiden early speed system. The sample was small (79 races), so I stress this is just an initial sampling with some encouraging results. There were 11 winners for a total return of $162.10 resulting in a profit of $4.10 ($158 originally wagered on the 79 plays).

Here are the rules:

1) Any maiden race is playable (special weight and maiden claiming, turf or dirt, sprint or route)
2) Look for races where a horse leads at both the first and second calls.
3) The horse showing the most number of these races (as defined in rule #2 above) in its past ten races is the play.
4) No ties allowed.

That's it.

The rationale is simple: a lot of maidens lack early speed and don't like to take the lead. A maiden that can lead for two consecutive calls early on in a race is a relative standout among maidens.

Thanks,

Bill C

[Buckeye]

Bill,

I like the idea because it ignores speed, trainers, jockeys, workouts, pedigree, etc.

But the ROI is less than 3%
The winning percentage is very low and the avg. price is very high considering I believe many players look for number one positions in the running line. I really don't see much you could do with this system but maybe it's a good starting point. How many races did you review to find the 79 plays?

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by Buckeye
Bill,

I like the idea because it ignores speed, trainers, jockeys, workouts, pedigree, etc.

But the ROI is less than 3%
The winning percentage is very low and the avg. price is very high considering I believe many players look for number one positions in the running line. I really don't see much you could do with this system but maybe it's a good starting point. How many races did you review to find the 79 plays?

Just about all the cards at Belmont from May 5th through July 25th 2004 inclusive. About 58 days of racing. About 1.36 plays per card.

I'm hoping someone will test this spot play electronically.

Meanwhile, I will continue to test this spot play manually and post the results I obtain periodically as the sample size grows.

Bill C

[Buckeye]

Do you think it would work at other tracks? If you have the Forms for those dates, you could test to see if it works elsewhere. If it does, then you would have possibly five times as many plays per day.

[dav4463]

I bet you can improve the profit by demanding at least 10% wins for the trainer and jockey.....don't know how many plays you would lose out on though......and if a horse only has 2 or 3 races, you should pro-rate him to 10 races......4 races..a fit on 2 of them....horse should get credit for 5 good races.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by Buckeye
Do you think it would work at other tracks? If you have the Forms for those dates, you could test to see if it works elsewhere. If it does, then you would have possibly five times as many plays per day.

My sense is that it should work at other tracks. Yes, I do have some forms for those other tacks and will be doing additional manual checking to expand the sample size. It's a laborious process, though, doing it by hand.

Bill C

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by dav4463
I bet you can improve the profit by demanding at least 10% wins for the trainer and jockey.....don't know how many plays you would lose out on though......and if a horse only has 2 or 3 races, you should pro-rate him to 10 races......4 races..a fit on 2 of them....horse should get credit for 5 good races.

Good idea, but I really need to expand the sample size to at least several hundred races to see if the ROI will hold up before I consider whether its even worth applying tightening rules.

Bill C

[Bill Cullen]

I just tested a close variation of this system with beat-the-races.com:

There were just 45 winners in over 900 playable races with a negative ROI around .60.

Back to the drawing board!

Billl C

[Valuist]

Using key races for Maidens, I see a lot of horses who show early speed and quit are good candidates to come back and win. What's good about this is those only obsessed with final time speed figures tend to overlook these types. And like has been said many times before, early speed/class drop types dominate. Toss in first Lasix with it and its real tough.

[JackS]

Bill C- I love the maidens and like your rules except for the rule 3 that states "most races shown with speed in last ten". Actually my preference would be the new found speed among experienced maidens and preferably a 2nd time starter who showed speed first time out. If you have the time, track both (your rule 3, and my amended rule 3) and let us know the results.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by JackS
Bill C- I love the maidens and like your rules except for the rule 3 that states "most races shown with speed in last ten". Actually my preference would be the new found speed among experienced maidens and preferably a 2nd time starter who showed speed first time out. If you have the time, track both (your rule 3, and my amended rule 3) and let us know the results.

I'll try to check it out.

Bill C