azibuck
08-13-2004, 09:46 PM
I've been doing the Bris World Series contest the last 4 Fridays, including today.
The first contest, covering 3 weeks, I "won" $63. That was good for about 1,000,000th place or so. The thing is, if I had placed $2 WP wagers on each of my top selections, I'd be up $15.
8 races each Friday, x $2 WP = $16 each Friday x 3 weeks = $48
And today has been a freaking bonanza. I made $56. That's $119 on $64 wagered over four weeks.
Oh, but I've only bet real money on one of the races (lost) because I'm working or taking care of the kids or in traffic or something when these races are run. And I wasn't taking it that seriously to begin with. I mean, I wasn't taking actually wagering on these races seriously.
I did however cap seriously. I capped pretty much the way I usually do, but selected the highest ML price among contenders I narrowed it down to. Made quick decisions. Didn't waste much time separating two contenders, just picked the higher price and moved on. The only time I spent separating contenders was if I narrowed it to two and one was 6/1 and the other 8/1.
I'm leaning towards this being dumb luck, because 32 races is hardly evidence of anything. On the other hand, four distinct weeks is a long time.
What it's really done is confuse me about how I should wager going forward, whenever I'm playing the races. I usually look for value, but maybe I'm not looking for enough? Maybe I had heretofore dismissed marginal contenders too easily?
I also have a feeling that if I watched the tote for all these races, my opinion might have changed.
Ahh, it's got to be dumb luck.
The first contest, covering 3 weeks, I "won" $63. That was good for about 1,000,000th place or so. The thing is, if I had placed $2 WP wagers on each of my top selections, I'd be up $15.
8 races each Friday, x $2 WP = $16 each Friday x 3 weeks = $48
And today has been a freaking bonanza. I made $56. That's $119 on $64 wagered over four weeks.
Oh, but I've only bet real money on one of the races (lost) because I'm working or taking care of the kids or in traffic or something when these races are run. And I wasn't taking it that seriously to begin with. I mean, I wasn't taking actually wagering on these races seriously.
I did however cap seriously. I capped pretty much the way I usually do, but selected the highest ML price among contenders I narrowed it down to. Made quick decisions. Didn't waste much time separating two contenders, just picked the higher price and moved on. The only time I spent separating contenders was if I narrowed it to two and one was 6/1 and the other 8/1.
I'm leaning towards this being dumb luck, because 32 races is hardly evidence of anything. On the other hand, four distinct weeks is a long time.
What it's really done is confuse me about how I should wager going forward, whenever I'm playing the races. I usually look for value, but maybe I'm not looking for enough? Maybe I had heretofore dismissed marginal contenders too easily?
I also have a feeling that if I watched the tote for all these races, my opinion might have changed.
Ahh, it's got to be dumb luck.