Latest Poll

[cj]

The latest CNN poll for President shows Bush 48%, Kerry 46%, Nader 3%. The libs must have missed this one. I saw it scroll at the bottom of the screen three times to make sure I saw it right. I'll admit I was a bit surprised.

Needless to say, CNN didn't actually report it, just scrolled it at the bottom of the screen. Its not on the web site either.

[so.cal.fan]

I wonder if it was the appearance on Larry King Live, George and Laura Bush. I didn't see it, but my husband said Bush came across very well.

[GameTheory]

You can always find the results of the latest polls at:

http://www.pollingreport.com

Not just on the Presidental race, but on lots of stuff. Bush is indeed in the in lead in the latest CNN poll listed there (by 4 pts, ending 8/1) and also the more recent Gallup poll (by 3 pts, ending 8/11). However, four other polls have Kerry in the lead by 1 to 7 points.

[hcap]

The national polls I think are going to fluctuate day by day, as good/bad news of each candidate, and almost scandals bubble to the top of the media circus. The more important indicators IMHO are the undecided vote, the battleground states and the underlying core issues.

http://www.time.com/time/election2004/columnist/frank/article/0,18471,681609,00.html

" What has to be far more disturbing to the staff at Bush-Cheney ‘04 headquarters is the most recent round of polls from key battleground states. They show Kerry gaining ground in some of the states most crucial for Bush. The latest poll in Florida, where Bush was ahead before the convention, gives Kerry a six point lead. West Virginia is leaning toward Kerry. A New Hampshire poll shows Kerry ahead by seven points. All three states voted for Bush in 2000.

As for those close national polls, there are some strong signs that Bush will not pick up many votes from the small sliver of undecided Americans. Nonpartisan political guru Charlie Cook recently analyzed a series of AP polls from April to August and found that while 56% of surveyed voters believe the country is on the wrong track, 74% of undecided voters think that’s the case. "

[kenwoodallpromos]

Kerry must be controlling the polls, as much as they flip-flop.

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by hcap
Nonpartisan political guru Charlie Cook recently analyzed a series of AP polls from April to August and found that while 56% of surveyed voters believe the country is on the wrong track, 74% of undecided voters think that’s the case. " I find this question they always ask, "Do you think the country is on the wrong track?" to be a funny one. I think the country is on the wrong track. I'm not sure I can think of a time in my life where I was old enough to think about such things (I'm 34) that I didn't think it was on the wrong track. Now I assume the implication there is supposed to be "if you do think it is on the wrong track, then it must be the president's fault." However, I think they've got the cart before the horse. If you look at our presidents and other politicians in general, I would say that they themselves are evidence of the country being on the wrong track, but they are not the cause. They are one of the effects.

[Tom]

That is the big problem wiht most polls I have ever seen-the questions that are asked do not support the conclusions that are reached.
Do you think the country is on the wrong track? No way you can translate that into a Bush favorability conclusion. That is not what was asked. No way you can assume that if everyone answered it was on the right track could you use that to say Bush was viewed favorable.
The only polls I really pay attention to are the ones where I can see the actual question, verbatim.
My opinion of Bush is he is not doing a gret job, could be doin g al ot more, has made many mistakes. etc, No way in heck that means I think Kerry has a shot at all of doing better and no way in heck does it mean I want to replace W. It means I think he could do better. Period.