Teach
10-09-2017, 08:11 AM
Race One:
:6: SPECIAL DIVIDEND needed her last, her first start off a lengthy layoff. I watched the replay, a turf-sprint on Belmont’s opening day. In that one, this chestnut filly broke slowly from the rail starting post. Her pilot, Kendrick Carmouche, did move this 4 year-old up forward along the rail as the horses raced down the backside. This filly then stayed along the inside throughout the remainder of the race. She did make a brief “brush” as the field made the turn at the top of the stretch; yet she very simply “ran out of gas”. I believe with that last race under her belt, this A.P. Indy-bred becomes “a player”. I might mention that, for the first time in her career, this filly drops in for “a tag”. The filly’s trainer, Chris Englehart, does exceptionally well both with 2nd off a layoff and turf-to-dirt. A solid morning work, albeit over two weeks old, bolsters confidence. “The Louisiana Kid,” Carmouche, reprises the ride. Others: :2:, :3:, :4:
Race Two:
I’m basing my picks on the belief that the rains from former hurricane Nate will be heavy enough to put most of the scheduled turf races, with the possible exception of The Knickerbocker, on the main. Doppler radar, as of 8 a.m., is showing a heavy slug of rain in eastern PA that’s making a bee-line for the NYC area. Well, enough meteorology, I’m picking: :2: JAMYSON N’GINGER, an MTO, in this OC 7-panels race. “Mechanicsville Chad” Brown, the meet’s leading trainer, guessed right when he entered this Bernardini-bred filly as a Main Track Only. This highly-priced A.P. Indy-bred moves up exponentially if this race, indeed, comes off the grass. In fact, this 3 year-old bay broke her maiden one year ago on a sloppy track at Belmont; she won by an ever-lengthening New York City block. Javier Castellano, a recent Hall-of-Fame inductee and the meet’s leading rider, reprises the ride. This filly’s luster is further enhanced by an array of solid morning-works. Others: :8:, :9:, :3:
Race Three:
In this state-bred MSW at seven panels, I’m picking :7: CONNIE A. First, this Algorithms-bred filly’s wet-track pedigree is solid. Second, this 3 year-old Todd Pletcher trainee should benefit from an outside starting post. Yet, at this juncture, I should cite that this filly’s jockey, Luis Saez (he’s having a very good Belmont meet), will need to see that this Bernardini-bred breaks alertly from the starting gate (she broke a step slow in her last, her first pari-mutuel start). Speaking of her last race, this Street Hero-bred finished a fast-closing 2nd against slightly better MSW company. Today’s stretch-out to seven panels should give this filly a whole lot more time to mount her closing charge. If all goes according to Hoyle, this Sangher-bred should find herself in the winner’s circle. Others: :6:, :4:, :3:
Race Four:
I’m again predicating this pick on the belief that the race comes off the turf. Thus, my choice here is a longshot: :9: PRETTY RIVER. This 2 year-old bay filly did little in her only two turf-sprint starts. Yet, if this race switches to the main, I believe this M/L 15-1 shot moves up. This San Pablo-sired filly (San Pablo, a Todd Pletcher trainee, was a router who competed in several stakes races during his career; he won MP’s Grade III Iselin. I should mention he was adept at racing on wet surfaces) will, in my opinion, will become “a player” on a wet-track main. Further, in both her races, this filly has had gate issues, e.g., pinched, bumped. Today’s outside starting post may go a long way to alleviating those issues. The apprentice, “LR,” the up-and-coming Luis Reyes, is in the irons for trainer Gary Contessa. Oh, a solid, recent “bullet” 3-panels work instills confidence. Others: :2:, :8:, :7:
Race Five:
In this 6 and ½ furlongs 50k MC sprint I’m picking: :8: STUBOLT, a first-time starter. This 2 year-old colt’s sire, Graydar, won the Grade I Donn Handicap in 2013 at GP. I might mention that this colt has a solid wet-track pedigree. I believe he moves up on today’s wet surface. Further, his dam, Mystery, had two winners from two starters. The colt’s pilot, Irad Ortiz, Jr., has been on a tear; he’s currently vying for Belmont Park jockey honors. Others: :7:, :6:, :5:
Race Six:
In this 35k turf claimer, n3L (assuming it comes off the turf), I’m picking: :8: BARATTI. I believe this Medaglia d’Oro-bred 6 year-old horse moves up if the race is taken off the turf. This horse has tried the lawn on three occasions but has failed to hit the tote in each try. I believe a wet-track main gives this horse a solid chance of gracing the winner’s circle. Yes, this horse has been away from the races since late August; yet her trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, does very well with horses that have been on the shelf. McLaughlin also does well with horses entered in claiming races. Joel Rosario is this horse’s pilot. Others: :2:, :3:, :4:
Race Seven:
:6: GIFT BOX is my pick in this OC route. Oh, how the mighty have fallen! It was only last year that this Candy Ride-bred grey ridgling was finishing 4th up at The Spa in the Grade I Travers. Since then, this ridgling has competed in only two races (that’s concerning). He finished 5th in the Grade III Discovery at Aqueduct and 6th in an OC sprint up at The Spa in early September. In both cases, this ridgling went off as the chalk. On paper, he looks like the horse to beat, yet his sporadic racing appearances gives me cause for concern. This is most definitely a horse that one does not want to “bet the ranch” on. It’s just that if he can recover his past form, he can easily prevail over this field. The meet’s leading trainer, “Mechanicsville Chad” Brown conditions this Twirling Candy-sired ridgling. Javier Castellano is in the irons. Oh, I should mention that this horse should move up on a wet track. Others: :5:, :1:/:1a:, :3:
Race Eight:
If any race is to be run on the lawn, this is it, the Grade II 200k Knickerbocker for 3 year-olds at one mile and one-eighth. If this race stays on the grass, I’m picking :5: BLACKTYPE.This Dunkerque-bred 6 year-old gelding was last seen, about one month ago, winning a 100k OC. Yes, this French-bred horse will get tested for class. Frankly, that is a concern. Yet, this gelding’s trainer, Christophe Clement, does very well with horses who won their last race. I might mention that this gelding finished 3rd in last year’s Knickerbocker, a race that was won by Heart to Heart. I believe this gelding moves up on a yielding surface. Joel Rosario reprises the ride. Others: :2:, :3:, :8:
If the race is run on the main track: :7:, :4:, :5:, :8:.
Race Nine:
Again, I’m predicating my selection based on the fact that I believe this 7-panels MSW turf race will be switched to main. Based on that assumption, I’m picking: :10:KREESIE. This 2 year-old grey filly did finish a fast-closing 4th as a prohibitive longshot in a 6-panels turf race a little less than one month ago. I believe this filly can handle to switch to a wet-track main. I also believe this Lemon Drop Kid-bred filly’s outside starting post is a big asset in enhancing her chances of gracing the winner’s circle. I should mention, this filly’s trainer, Linda Dixon, does very well with horses making their second career start, albeit with a most limited sampling. The most capable Luis Saez is in the irons. Others: :6:, :9:, :7:
:6: SPECIAL DIVIDEND needed her last, her first start off a lengthy layoff. I watched the replay, a turf-sprint on Belmont’s opening day. In that one, this chestnut filly broke slowly from the rail starting post. Her pilot, Kendrick Carmouche, did move this 4 year-old up forward along the rail as the horses raced down the backside. This filly then stayed along the inside throughout the remainder of the race. She did make a brief “brush” as the field made the turn at the top of the stretch; yet she very simply “ran out of gas”. I believe with that last race under her belt, this A.P. Indy-bred becomes “a player”. I might mention that, for the first time in her career, this filly drops in for “a tag”. The filly’s trainer, Chris Englehart, does exceptionally well both with 2nd off a layoff and turf-to-dirt. A solid morning work, albeit over two weeks old, bolsters confidence. “The Louisiana Kid,” Carmouche, reprises the ride. Others: :2:, :3:, :4:
Race Two:
I’m basing my picks on the belief that the rains from former hurricane Nate will be heavy enough to put most of the scheduled turf races, with the possible exception of The Knickerbocker, on the main. Doppler radar, as of 8 a.m., is showing a heavy slug of rain in eastern PA that’s making a bee-line for the NYC area. Well, enough meteorology, I’m picking: :2: JAMYSON N’GINGER, an MTO, in this OC 7-panels race. “Mechanicsville Chad” Brown, the meet’s leading trainer, guessed right when he entered this Bernardini-bred filly as a Main Track Only. This highly-priced A.P. Indy-bred moves up exponentially if this race, indeed, comes off the grass. In fact, this 3 year-old bay broke her maiden one year ago on a sloppy track at Belmont; she won by an ever-lengthening New York City block. Javier Castellano, a recent Hall-of-Fame inductee and the meet’s leading rider, reprises the ride. This filly’s luster is further enhanced by an array of solid morning-works. Others: :8:, :9:, :3:
Race Three:
In this state-bred MSW at seven panels, I’m picking :7: CONNIE A. First, this Algorithms-bred filly’s wet-track pedigree is solid. Second, this 3 year-old Todd Pletcher trainee should benefit from an outside starting post. Yet, at this juncture, I should cite that this filly’s jockey, Luis Saez (he’s having a very good Belmont meet), will need to see that this Bernardini-bred breaks alertly from the starting gate (she broke a step slow in her last, her first pari-mutuel start). Speaking of her last race, this Street Hero-bred finished a fast-closing 2nd against slightly better MSW company. Today’s stretch-out to seven panels should give this filly a whole lot more time to mount her closing charge. If all goes according to Hoyle, this Sangher-bred should find herself in the winner’s circle. Others: :6:, :4:, :3:
Race Four:
I’m again predicating this pick on the belief that the race comes off the turf. Thus, my choice here is a longshot: :9: PRETTY RIVER. This 2 year-old bay filly did little in her only two turf-sprint starts. Yet, if this race switches to the main, I believe this M/L 15-1 shot moves up. This San Pablo-sired filly (San Pablo, a Todd Pletcher trainee, was a router who competed in several stakes races during his career; he won MP’s Grade III Iselin. I should mention he was adept at racing on wet surfaces) will, in my opinion, will become “a player” on a wet-track main. Further, in both her races, this filly has had gate issues, e.g., pinched, bumped. Today’s outside starting post may go a long way to alleviating those issues. The apprentice, “LR,” the up-and-coming Luis Reyes, is in the irons for trainer Gary Contessa. Oh, a solid, recent “bullet” 3-panels work instills confidence. Others: :2:, :8:, :7:
Race Five:
In this 6 and ½ furlongs 50k MC sprint I’m picking: :8: STUBOLT, a first-time starter. This 2 year-old colt’s sire, Graydar, won the Grade I Donn Handicap in 2013 at GP. I might mention that this colt has a solid wet-track pedigree. I believe he moves up on today’s wet surface. Further, his dam, Mystery, had two winners from two starters. The colt’s pilot, Irad Ortiz, Jr., has been on a tear; he’s currently vying for Belmont Park jockey honors. Others: :7:, :6:, :5:
Race Six:
In this 35k turf claimer, n3L (assuming it comes off the turf), I’m picking: :8: BARATTI. I believe this Medaglia d’Oro-bred 6 year-old horse moves up if the race is taken off the turf. This horse has tried the lawn on three occasions but has failed to hit the tote in each try. I believe a wet-track main gives this horse a solid chance of gracing the winner’s circle. Yes, this horse has been away from the races since late August; yet her trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, does very well with horses that have been on the shelf. McLaughlin also does well with horses entered in claiming races. Joel Rosario is this horse’s pilot. Others: :2:, :3:, :4:
Race Seven:
:6: GIFT BOX is my pick in this OC route. Oh, how the mighty have fallen! It was only last year that this Candy Ride-bred grey ridgling was finishing 4th up at The Spa in the Grade I Travers. Since then, this ridgling has competed in only two races (that’s concerning). He finished 5th in the Grade III Discovery at Aqueduct and 6th in an OC sprint up at The Spa in early September. In both cases, this ridgling went off as the chalk. On paper, he looks like the horse to beat, yet his sporadic racing appearances gives me cause for concern. This is most definitely a horse that one does not want to “bet the ranch” on. It’s just that if he can recover his past form, he can easily prevail over this field. The meet’s leading trainer, “Mechanicsville Chad” Brown conditions this Twirling Candy-sired ridgling. Javier Castellano is in the irons. Oh, I should mention that this horse should move up on a wet track. Others: :5:, :1:/:1a:, :3:
Race Eight:
If any race is to be run on the lawn, this is it, the Grade II 200k Knickerbocker for 3 year-olds at one mile and one-eighth. If this race stays on the grass, I’m picking :5: BLACKTYPE.This Dunkerque-bred 6 year-old gelding was last seen, about one month ago, winning a 100k OC. Yes, this French-bred horse will get tested for class. Frankly, that is a concern. Yet, this gelding’s trainer, Christophe Clement, does very well with horses who won their last race. I might mention that this gelding finished 3rd in last year’s Knickerbocker, a race that was won by Heart to Heart. I believe this gelding moves up on a yielding surface. Joel Rosario reprises the ride. Others: :2:, :3:, :8:
If the race is run on the main track: :7:, :4:, :5:, :8:.
Race Nine:
Again, I’m predicating my selection based on the fact that I believe this 7-panels MSW turf race will be switched to main. Based on that assumption, I’m picking: :10:KREESIE. This 2 year-old grey filly did finish a fast-closing 4th as a prohibitive longshot in a 6-panels turf race a little less than one month ago. I believe this filly can handle to switch to a wet-track main. I also believe this Lemon Drop Kid-bred filly’s outside starting post is a big asset in enhancing her chances of gracing the winner’s circle. I should mention, this filly’s trainer, Linda Dixon, does very well with horses making their second career start, albeit with a most limited sampling. The most capable Luis Saez is in the irons. Others: :6:, :9:, :7: