Teach
10-03-2017, 08:36 AM
Reminders: There's a 30k Pick-6 Carryover.
First Post moves back about 35 minutes to 12:55.
Race One: 1 Mile. Mdn 75k Purse $75,000
As I looked at the horses entered in today’s opener, I thought I had made up my mind that the winner was coming from one of the first four horses entered in this short-field, 5-horse MSW route; however, I then looked at the outside entrant, :5: PENDANT. My initial reaction to this colt was muted. His jockey, Eric Cancel, has “booted” home only one winner in 59 tries (I’m not inferring that all his mounts were “live”) and his top-notch trainer, “Shug” McGaughey, is, quite frankly, having a so-so, un-McGaughey-like Belmont meet. But then I looked at this Bernardini-bred bay colt’s bloodlines. Gold-plated. In addition to the Bernardini (A.P. Indy) “on top”, there’s “the bottom,” the dam: My Flag. This Easy Goer-Personal Ensign (“Shug” has trained many of these horses) offspring was an outstanding filly in her own right. As a broodmare, she produced 5 winners and 2 stakes winners from 7 starters. Her sire, Easy Goer, won 70% of his starts; he was never off the board. Her broodmare, Personal Ensign, won all 13 of her races. In a nutshell: I’m not sure this colt can win at first-asking, but if he does, it wouldn’t be a complete surprise. Others: 3, 2, 4.
Race Two: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 75k Purse $75,000
:4: WAKE ISLAND gets my nod in this MSW turf route. What sealed the deal is the fact that this War Front-bred filly’s conditioner, the meet’s leading trainer, “Mechanicsville Chad” Brown, has decided to add blinkers to keep this 3 year-old bay filly on task. I believe that might just be the equipment change that puts this filly in the winner’s circle. I must admit, however, that I’m concerned by the fact that this Danzig-bred has had a classic case of “second-itis”; she’s been the “bridesmaid” in three of her five lifetime starts (it should be noted that she’s hit the board in all of her tries). This Unbridled’s Song-bred filly should, if all goes according to plan, be in a good stalking position to mount a late charge. The filly’s pilot is the meet’s leading rider, Javier Castellano. Castellano is el maestro when it comes to both rating horses and putting them into a position to win on the racetrack. Others: 7, 1, 2.
Race Three:1 Mile. Alw 50000s Purse $55,000
:4: CARLINO is my pick in this allowance route. This lightly-raced Lemon Drop Kid-bred 3 year-old gelding started his racing career on the lawn, but he showed little in his only grass appearance. Courtlandt Farms and trainer Mark Hennig (he’s having a solid meet) then shifted this Kingmambo-bred to the main; he’s responded quite admirably, one 1st and two 2nds. Today’s 8-panels race would appear to be this gelding’s ideal distance. Jose Lezcano has the call (he was aboard for this gelding’s only win). Look for this Langfuhr-bred to make a late-closing charge. Others: 2, 1, 5.
Race Four: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 40000n2L
:8: DREAM A LITTLE is my medium-longshot upset pick in this turf sprint-route (Seven panels is like “no man’s land” when it comes to distance). Yes, this lightly-raced Freud-bred chestnut filly has been away from the races for over four months. And, I might add, cautionarily, that this Storm Cat-bred’s morning work-tab has been less than stellar. Yet, this filly is dropping precipitously from her last start, a state-bred allowance in which she finished 5th as the 3-to-2 favorite. Admittedly, this filly’s trainer, David Donk, is having a less-than-stellar Belmont meet. Yet, Donk has a way with horses entered in turf races. He’s most capable of conditioning a winner here. Irad Ortiz, Jr. reprises the ride. Others: 3, 11, 9.
Race Five: 1 Mile. Alw 77000n1x Purse $77,000
:5: PARADE is my pick. The bloodlines – “on the bottom” -- take us back to On Parade, My Flag, Easy Goer and Personal Ensign “ “The top” is outstanding as well: Tapit (Pulpit). Well, after a losing effort in her first pari-mutuel try on the turf, this 3 year-old grey has, subsequently, hit the board in each of her four tries on the main. This filly just missed in her last, a one-mile allowance race. The ever-improving Dylan Davis is back in the irons for “Shug” McGaughey. A recent 3-panels “bullet” work bolsters confidence. Others: 4, 3, 1.
Race Six: 1 Mile. (Turf) MC 40000 Purse $41,000
:12: KAT O MINE will haveto overcome her outside starting post if this 3 year-old filly is to prevail. Her jockey, Jose Lezcano “Lez(cano) on The Ces(ped),” will need to put this Mineshaft-bred immediately into play if she stands any chance of getting her picture taken. In her last, her only start, this A.P. Indy-bred filly was pinched after the break; she finished 6th. I believe that the gate issues that this filly was confronted with in her only start can be mitigated by today’s outside starting post. This The Deputy-bred filly is also adding blinkers. Her trainer, The Hall-of-Famer, Bill Mott, does very well with 1st Time Blinkers. Yes, this filly’s been away from the races for a while, but Mott does reasonably well in that category. An array of solid morning works bolsters confidence. Others: 3, 6, 1.
Race Seven: 1 Mile. Clm 25000 Purse $47,000
:4: FLICK OF AN EYE gets my tepid, lukewarm nod in this tough-to-decipher, short-field, 8-panels claimer. I guess what finally swayed me as I spent an inordinate amount of time looking at the past performances of each of the seven fillies and mares (there’s an entry) was the fact that the aforementioned Flick Of An Eye was getting a significant rider switch to “The Louisiana Kid,” Kendrick Carmouche. Carmouche is an aggressive rider who’s most capable of putting this 5 year-old Afleet Alex-bred mare in a position to win. There’s also the fact that this Meadowlake-bred is getting a degree of class relief as she slides down the claiming ladder. This mare does stretch out one panel off her last two starts; yet I don’t see that additional furlong as a concern. In fact, it may well enhance her chances of gracing the winner’s circle. The mare’s trainer, Dom Schettino, does well with horses going sprint-sprint-route. Schettino’s having a decent meet with a limited number of entrants. In six tries, Schettino’s horses have finished second on three occasions. My only concern: No morning works since this mare’s last race on September 16. Others: 1A, 6, 5.
Race Eight: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) OC 40000n2x Purse $65,000
On the last day of this year’s Spa meet, September 4, Labor Day, the horse I like in today’s eighth race broke through the gate before the start of the race (the assistant starter made a great save). This grey filly, :7: DRIVEN BY SPEED, was sent to the lead by her jockey, John Velazquez. This Tale of The Cat-bred 3 year-old took the field to the far turn before stopping like an out-of-breath runner at “Heartbreak Hill” in The Boston Marathon. Was her demise do to her break-through incident before the race? Was the distance: “A Bridge Too Far”? Or, was it the Spa’s yielding turf course? Or, simply, was it a combination of all three? Well, in today’s state-bred race, I believe this filly will benefit from the one-panel cut-back. Her connections are superb: the Repole Stable, Todd Pletcher and the aforementioned Hall-of-Famer, Johnny V. A less adventuresome gate-loading will do wonders for her chances. So too will a firm Widener Turf Course. Others: 3, 6, 8.
Race Nine: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) MC 40000 Purse $41,000
I
n the finale, a 6-panels maiden-claimer on The Inner, I’m picking: :1a: BUY FOR LESS. This highly-priced Bodemeister-bred filly was bumped solidly at the start of her last race, a similar 40k 6-furlongs turf race. In that one, she drew the disadvantageous – at least for her running style – rail starting post. Well, this filly now draws the 7-hole. That should work in her favor. Her pilot is the accomplished veteran reinsman, “Jersey Joe” Bravo. Bravo’s having a solid Belmont meet. The filly’s conditioner is one of the meet’s leading trainers, David Jacobson. Jacobson does very well with 2nd grass races, albeit with an extremely limited sampling. He also does well with horses entered in maiden claimers. Finally, this filly’s dam, Ayla Bella, had 3 winners from 5 starters and 2 turf winners. Others: 2, 3, 10.
First Post moves back about 35 minutes to 12:55.
Race One: 1 Mile. Mdn 75k Purse $75,000
As I looked at the horses entered in today’s opener, I thought I had made up my mind that the winner was coming from one of the first four horses entered in this short-field, 5-horse MSW route; however, I then looked at the outside entrant, :5: PENDANT. My initial reaction to this colt was muted. His jockey, Eric Cancel, has “booted” home only one winner in 59 tries (I’m not inferring that all his mounts were “live”) and his top-notch trainer, “Shug” McGaughey, is, quite frankly, having a so-so, un-McGaughey-like Belmont meet. But then I looked at this Bernardini-bred bay colt’s bloodlines. Gold-plated. In addition to the Bernardini (A.P. Indy) “on top”, there’s “the bottom,” the dam: My Flag. This Easy Goer-Personal Ensign (“Shug” has trained many of these horses) offspring was an outstanding filly in her own right. As a broodmare, she produced 5 winners and 2 stakes winners from 7 starters. Her sire, Easy Goer, won 70% of his starts; he was never off the board. Her broodmare, Personal Ensign, won all 13 of her races. In a nutshell: I’m not sure this colt can win at first-asking, but if he does, it wouldn’t be a complete surprise. Others: 3, 2, 4.
Race Two: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 75k Purse $75,000
:4: WAKE ISLAND gets my nod in this MSW turf route. What sealed the deal is the fact that this War Front-bred filly’s conditioner, the meet’s leading trainer, “Mechanicsville Chad” Brown, has decided to add blinkers to keep this 3 year-old bay filly on task. I believe that might just be the equipment change that puts this filly in the winner’s circle. I must admit, however, that I’m concerned by the fact that this Danzig-bred has had a classic case of “second-itis”; she’s been the “bridesmaid” in three of her five lifetime starts (it should be noted that she’s hit the board in all of her tries). This Unbridled’s Song-bred filly should, if all goes according to plan, be in a good stalking position to mount a late charge. The filly’s pilot is the meet’s leading rider, Javier Castellano. Castellano is el maestro when it comes to both rating horses and putting them into a position to win on the racetrack. Others: 7, 1, 2.
Race Three:1 Mile. Alw 50000s Purse $55,000
:4: CARLINO is my pick in this allowance route. This lightly-raced Lemon Drop Kid-bred 3 year-old gelding started his racing career on the lawn, but he showed little in his only grass appearance. Courtlandt Farms and trainer Mark Hennig (he’s having a solid meet) then shifted this Kingmambo-bred to the main; he’s responded quite admirably, one 1st and two 2nds. Today’s 8-panels race would appear to be this gelding’s ideal distance. Jose Lezcano has the call (he was aboard for this gelding’s only win). Look for this Langfuhr-bred to make a late-closing charge. Others: 2, 1, 5.
Race Four: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 40000n2L
:8: DREAM A LITTLE is my medium-longshot upset pick in this turf sprint-route (Seven panels is like “no man’s land” when it comes to distance). Yes, this lightly-raced Freud-bred chestnut filly has been away from the races for over four months. And, I might add, cautionarily, that this Storm Cat-bred’s morning work-tab has been less than stellar. Yet, this filly is dropping precipitously from her last start, a state-bred allowance in which she finished 5th as the 3-to-2 favorite. Admittedly, this filly’s trainer, David Donk, is having a less-than-stellar Belmont meet. Yet, Donk has a way with horses entered in turf races. He’s most capable of conditioning a winner here. Irad Ortiz, Jr. reprises the ride. Others: 3, 11, 9.
Race Five: 1 Mile. Alw 77000n1x Purse $77,000
:5: PARADE is my pick. The bloodlines – “on the bottom” -- take us back to On Parade, My Flag, Easy Goer and Personal Ensign “ “The top” is outstanding as well: Tapit (Pulpit). Well, after a losing effort in her first pari-mutuel try on the turf, this 3 year-old grey has, subsequently, hit the board in each of her four tries on the main. This filly just missed in her last, a one-mile allowance race. The ever-improving Dylan Davis is back in the irons for “Shug” McGaughey. A recent 3-panels “bullet” work bolsters confidence. Others: 4, 3, 1.
Race Six: 1 Mile. (Turf) MC 40000 Purse $41,000
:12: KAT O MINE will haveto overcome her outside starting post if this 3 year-old filly is to prevail. Her jockey, Jose Lezcano “Lez(cano) on The Ces(ped),” will need to put this Mineshaft-bred immediately into play if she stands any chance of getting her picture taken. In her last, her only start, this A.P. Indy-bred filly was pinched after the break; she finished 6th. I believe that the gate issues that this filly was confronted with in her only start can be mitigated by today’s outside starting post. This The Deputy-bred filly is also adding blinkers. Her trainer, The Hall-of-Famer, Bill Mott, does very well with 1st Time Blinkers. Yes, this filly’s been away from the races for a while, but Mott does reasonably well in that category. An array of solid morning works bolsters confidence. Others: 3, 6, 1.
Race Seven: 1 Mile. Clm 25000 Purse $47,000
:4: FLICK OF AN EYE gets my tepid, lukewarm nod in this tough-to-decipher, short-field, 8-panels claimer. I guess what finally swayed me as I spent an inordinate amount of time looking at the past performances of each of the seven fillies and mares (there’s an entry) was the fact that the aforementioned Flick Of An Eye was getting a significant rider switch to “The Louisiana Kid,” Kendrick Carmouche. Carmouche is an aggressive rider who’s most capable of putting this 5 year-old Afleet Alex-bred mare in a position to win. There’s also the fact that this Meadowlake-bred is getting a degree of class relief as she slides down the claiming ladder. This mare does stretch out one panel off her last two starts; yet I don’t see that additional furlong as a concern. In fact, it may well enhance her chances of gracing the winner’s circle. The mare’s trainer, Dom Schettino, does well with horses going sprint-sprint-route. Schettino’s having a decent meet with a limited number of entrants. In six tries, Schettino’s horses have finished second on three occasions. My only concern: No morning works since this mare’s last race on September 16. Others: 1A, 6, 5.
Race Eight: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) OC 40000n2x Purse $65,000
On the last day of this year’s Spa meet, September 4, Labor Day, the horse I like in today’s eighth race broke through the gate before the start of the race (the assistant starter made a great save). This grey filly, :7: DRIVEN BY SPEED, was sent to the lead by her jockey, John Velazquez. This Tale of The Cat-bred 3 year-old took the field to the far turn before stopping like an out-of-breath runner at “Heartbreak Hill” in The Boston Marathon. Was her demise do to her break-through incident before the race? Was the distance: “A Bridge Too Far”? Or, was it the Spa’s yielding turf course? Or, simply, was it a combination of all three? Well, in today’s state-bred race, I believe this filly will benefit from the one-panel cut-back. Her connections are superb: the Repole Stable, Todd Pletcher and the aforementioned Hall-of-Famer, Johnny V. A less adventuresome gate-loading will do wonders for her chances. So too will a firm Widener Turf Course. Others: 3, 6, 8.
Race Nine: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) MC 40000 Purse $41,000
I
n the finale, a 6-panels maiden-claimer on The Inner, I’m picking: :1a: BUY FOR LESS. This highly-priced Bodemeister-bred filly was bumped solidly at the start of her last race, a similar 40k 6-furlongs turf race. In that one, she drew the disadvantageous – at least for her running style – rail starting post. Well, this filly now draws the 7-hole. That should work in her favor. Her pilot is the accomplished veteran reinsman, “Jersey Joe” Bravo. Bravo’s having a solid Belmont meet. The filly’s conditioner is one of the meet’s leading trainers, David Jacobson. Jacobson does very well with 2nd grass races, albeit with an extremely limited sampling. He also does well with horses entered in maiden claimers. Finally, this filly’s dam, Ayla Bella, had 3 winners from 5 starters and 2 turf winners. Others: 2, 3, 10.