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View Full Version : Belmont: Sunday, October 1


Teach
10-01-2017, 12:43 PM
Bold numerals indicate my four (4) race picks:

Race One:
One Mile 14k Claimer, n3L:

1 Southern Union: He looks more like sprinter than router. Early speed. He’s capable of leading to top of stretch. Then?
2 Cody’s Notes: He has never won on dirt. Gets 7-pound weight allowance. Should handle distance. Might just complete exotic
3 Mr Grey: His breeding says turf. Yet he finished 2nd at nine panels on main in last. He can’t be ignored. Angel Arroyo.
4 Gotham News: This Class-dropper should “get distance”; Yet, recent efforts – unimpressive. Irad Ortiz, Jr./Steve Asmussen.
5 In Equality: Back-class. Yet he’s lost his last two races by a combined 68 lengths. 6-month layoff, yet solid morning works?
6 Heliodoro: He’s possible. Back-class. Hung out to dry in last at Spa. One turn now at Belmont. Can be “a player”.

Race Two:
One Mile and 1/16th on Inner Turf, 75k MC:

1 Michael Wonderful: Indian Charlie-bred. Can handle turf. Would prefer shorter distance. Broodmare: two turf winners.
1A Canttakeitanymore. Rahy-bred first-timer. Tough outside post for potentially “green” horse. Sharp recent work.
2 Sand Dancer: “Checked” in last. Mild turf pedigree (Giant’s Causeway). Inside post helps. Dam had one turf winner.
3 Make It Work: Colt weakened late in last, a turf route. Modest turf pedigree. Trainer does well: MSW to MC.
4 American Lincoln: First-timer. Uninspiring morning works. Lezcano, a plus. Turf lineage = mediocre. Trainer: low 1st time.
5 Lil Commissioner: He finished up the track in only start on main. Yet, good turf pedigree “on bottom” Watch board.
6 Brightest Star: First-timer w/modest turf pedigree. Trainer does not do well with 1st-time starters. Yet, He’d be a surprise
7 Johnny Action: Class-dropper. He was caught wide in only turf start at Spa. Javier Casellano/Todd Pletcher. Nuff Ced.
8 Hoard: Class dropper who tries lawn for first time. Appears more suited for wet-track than grass. Johnny V. in the irons.

Race Three:
One mile and 5/8ths 200k Temperance Hill Invitational:
1 Testosterone: He’s “a plodder” who looks to be a cut below the rest of the field. Yet, he’s capable of completing an exotic.
2 Madefromlucky: He won Prx’s 200k Grade III Greenwood Cup by 12 lengths. Javier Castellano/Todd Pletcher. Likely chalk.
3 Turco Bravo: Another “plodder”; yet he couldn’t win a 32k claimer in his last. Manny Franco in irons. Good recent works.
4 Archanova: 3rd in The Birdstone. Can get the distance. Looks like a board-hitter. Chris Landeros reprises ride for Ian Wilkes.
5 Let Me Go First: A tiring 3rd in Greenwood. Thirteen panels may be: “A Bridge Too Far”. Trainer Servis does well on dirt
6 Scuba: He finished up the track in Greenwood, yet 2nd in Birdstone. Which horse do we get? Johnny V./Brendan Walsh

Race Four:
One mile and 1/16th 80k OC n1x on Inner Turf:
2 Majestic Bonnie: After breaking her maiden at first asking, this filly has slipped down the class ladder.
4 Kahrumana: She was checked and impeded as chalk in last. Amends. Javier Castellano/Chad Brown. A board-hitter.
5 Miko: She won 2-straight on lawn before finishing 3rd in a race taken off grass. This Linda Rice-trainee appears to be “a player”
6 Bride Street: 1st try on lawn with modest turf pedigree. This Kiaran McLaughlin-trainee appears better suited to sprint
7 Initiate: She should be gunned out for the lead and playing catch-me-if-you-can. Irad Ortiz, Jr.: “ration, ration, ration…”
8 Two Hot Betty: She’s capable of earning a minor award. Her trainer, Abby Adsit does well sprint to route. Angel Arroyo.
10 Overnegotiate: she finished off board in last (off turf); yet two firsts and a second prior. Johnny V. will need to go early.

Race Five:
Six Furlongs Widener Turf 25k Claimer:
1A Captain Gaughen: He drops into claiming ranks after 2nd place finish 6 months ago on lawn at GP. Servis 35% 1st claim.
2 Street Shark: He’s done nothing at this level. Low-percentage trainer.
3 Tiznoble: This David Jacobson trainee looks like he wants to go longer; yet if speed ties up, he becomes “a player”.
4 Bibbo: He showed little in last two starts, one on grass, other on main. Steve Asmussen is solid with claimers. Possible.
6 Dancetrack: 3rd in last at Spa in route after leading in stretch. Turn-back here will help. “Lez on The Ces(ped),” Jose Lezcano.
8 Bow Tie Affair: He’s shown little at this level. His best races have been over a distance of ground. Luis Saez’s a plus.
9 Rapscallion: He cuts back a panel so Rosario will have to get him in game early. Trainer Bob Falcone, Jr.’s having solid meet.
10 Alaskan Prince: He’s faced better. He won his last as the favorite. I like his outside starting post. Manny Franco in irons
11 Francis Freud: He could be “the sleeper”. Owned and trained by Richard Metivier. Hector Diaz, Jr. won yesterday.

Race Six:
One Mile, 75k MSW:
1 Big Birthday: She’s a high-priced 2 year-old filly with a solid connections: Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz, Jr. Solid morning works.
2 Navajo: she ran at the end of The Spa meet and narrowly finished 2nd at 6 panels. Now stretching out. Johnny V. in irons
3 Aerial Assets: She could be “sleeper”. Nik Juarez for Kelly Breen (he does well with maiden routes). Solid work-tab.
4 Mojgan: Bill Mott trainee has turned in solid array of works; yet, Mott, “The Hall of Famer,” has weak 1st-timer record.
5 Fingerpaint: I find her hard to recommend off only start at Spa; yet, that was on sloppy track. A mulligan? Adds blinkers
6 Lady by Choice: She was a game second to a runaway winner up at The Spa. Chad Brown trains this highly-priced filly.
7 Mockery: She finished 2nd as the chalk up at The Spa at 7 panels in slop. I believes she moves up off that effort.
8 Fortune Strret: This Concerto-bred looks better suited for the grass. Trainer Mark Hennig has low 2nd route race figures.
9 Pink Sands: This filly’s recent “bullet” work catches my attention. So too Javier Castellano for “Shug” McGaughey.

Race Seven:
7 Furlongs State-bred, on The Widener 62K Allowance, n1x:
1 Sweet August Lady looks like she wants to longer; yet Chad Brown/Joel Rosario attracts attention. Might get part.
2 Rock Ave. Road: She appears to want a shorter distance. Not crazy about her starting post.
3 Alabama Bound: She may wake up at today’s shorter distance. Early speed. Trainer Tom Bush does well Rte to Sprint
4 Majestic Bloom: She almost surprised last time at a price, but that was against weaker. Gets tested for class.
5 Munchkin Money: She failed as the favorite in her last two. Yet, she can’t be overlooked. Luis Saez for Brian Lynch.
6 Ragazza Di Papa: She looks overmatched in this company. The capable Jeremiah Englehart has low percentage w/turf starts
7 Laura’s Patriot: She has only one win in31 career starts. Yet she gets a significant rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr.
8 Carry Your Heels: She’s been competing in New York state-bred non-graded stakes. She now gets class relief. A factor.
9 Amber Dance: She’d be a surprise if she popped. I believe this filly prefers a shorter distance. Dylan Davis for Bruce Levine
10 Sandy Belle: She moves up after breaking maiden in a race taken off turf. Good turf record. My question: the distance?
11 Itsinthestars: I believe this Mark Casse trainee is “a player”. Casse does well w/beaten faves. One-panel stretch, a plus.
12 Treatherlikestar: She can’t be overlooked, yet tough starting post. Javier Castellano reprises. He’ll need to get into the flow.

Race Eight:
Grade III 200k Miss Grillo One Mile and 1/16th on Inner Turf:
1 Life Time Citizen: She tried this distance in her last and faded to 6th (she wasbumped twice). I’d be surprised.
2 Codrington: She just broke her maiden at the end of The Spa meet. She will be tested for class. Jose Ortiz is a plus.
3 Southampton Way: She’s never raced on the lawn; yet her broodmare had 4 turf winners from 7 starters. Very interesting
4 Bramble Queen: She looks completely overmatched here. I would be totally surprised if she won this Grade III event.
5 Indian Union: She’s never raced on turf. Questionable turf pedigree. She appears overmatched. Low 1st on grass trainer
6 Orbolution appears to be the “the stick out like a sore thumb” in this one. She’s won her last two. Johnny V./Todd Pletcher.
7 Significant Form: She looks like: “main threat”. Hard to put her on top off maiden-breaking win. Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz, Jr.
8 Best Performace: She may the “upset-the-applecart sleeper”. Impressive 2nd in non-graded stakes; 2nd in Grade III Schylerville
9 Africa: She ships in from “Across The Pond” to make her first U.S. start. Not sure what to expect. Javier for Chad Brown.

Race Nine:

6 Furlongs Widener Turf, 75k MSW:

1 Impact Player: Decent turf breeding for 1st try on lawn. Second on main at distance up at The Spa. Johnny V./Pletcher
2 Spirit Fly: 3rd on turf in only try at The Spa. Recent “bullet” work. Slight stretch. Rosario reprises for Wesley Ward
3 Vital: Showed little in only main-track try at Keeneland. Good morning works for hot trainer. Kendrick Carmouche.
5 Pete Marwick: He showed little in only turf try, a route. May be better suited to sprint. Ken McPeek: low percent dirt-to-turf
6 Factor This: He showed finished 4th in similar turf sprint early in the meet. There is room for improvement. Ed Barker trains.
7 Devine Entry: He finished 2nd as the beaten fave in his last. Trainer Linda Rice does exceptionally well with beaten faves.
8 Solid: He finished 3rd behind Devine Entry in last. He got off slowly, but closed willingly. Manny Franco/Kiaran McLaughlin
9 Indifference: he faded to 6th after leading in that Sept. 9th Belmont race. Blinkers off. Luis Saez for John Terranova II