Let’s track GDP

[JustRalph]

3.1
2nd Quarter final
Today

[classhandicapper]

3.1
2nd Quarter final
Today

It's definitely going to be impacted negatively by the hurricanes this quarter relative to what it would have been.

[lefty359]

Trump's been in about 8 months. Obama, 8 yrs. The difference is amazing!

[PaceAdvantage]

You don't get it.

This is the Obama plans finally kicking in and letting the economy take off...it was the worst recession, thus it took time before things started really heating up.

Trump deserves zero credit for this.

(I'm trying to save mostpost some time)

[FantasticDan]

3.1
2nd Quarter final
Today
:jump: :D :jump:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/913794212906389504

https://twitter.com/DennisBailey/status/913792261917433856

[wisconsin]

:jump: :D :jump:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/913794212906389504

https://twitter.com/DennisBailey/status/913792261917433856

Does CNN lie here:

http://money.cnn.com/gallery/news/economy/2017/01/06/obama-economy-10-charts-final/3.html

[JustRalph]

:jump: :D :jump:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/913794212906389504

https://twitter.com/DennisBailey/status/913792261917433856

Yeah right

[FantasticDan]

Does CNN lie here:

http://money.cnn.com/gallery/news/economy/2017/01/06/obama-economy-10-charts-final/3.html
That shows the annual averages. What I posted were quarterlies that exceeded 3%, just as Ralph posted the Q2.

"Yeah right" :lol: :blush:

[elysiantraveller]

Source included at the bottom of graph.

https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2017/_images/gdp2q17_3rd_chart.png

[classhandicapper]

Why do we have to have silly debates like this?

Trump was obviously talking about 3% or better being a target for "annual" GDP growth because that number has been really tough to achieve lately even though it used to be more of an average in the past. Trying to get back to 3% annual growth or better has been discussed endlessly in the non political financial press. There has always been volatility in the quarterly numbers. There will be again, especially due to all the hurricanes that will start depressing the numbers and then maybe helping later when people start rebuiding.

The quarterly report was above 3%. So Trump was happy. He is suggesting that what he's doing is working towards achieving that goal 3% or more. You can agree with that or not, but let's not be like the press.

If Trump cured lung cancer the mainstream media would call him a misogynist for not curing breast cancer first. They are idiots.

[mostpost]

You don't get it.

This is the Obama plans finally kicking in and letting the economy take off...it was the worst recession, thus it took time before things started really heating up.

Trump deserves zero credit for this.

(I'm trying to save mostpost some time)
Very Good. You're finally starting to get it.

[JustRalph]

GDP 3% second month in a row

Funny how that never happen in the last 8 years

[FantasticDan]

GDP 3% second month in a row
Funny how that never happen in the last 8 years
Other than in 2014 Q2 and Q3 (4.6, 5.2), and 2015 Q1 and Q2 (3.2, 3).

It's right there in my earlier post. Easy to miss, I guess :lol:

[JustRalph]

Other than in 2014 Q2 and Q3 (4.6, 5.2), and 2015 Q1 and Q2 (3.2, 3).

It's right there in my earlier post. Easy to miss, I guess :lol:

The numbers are crap

[FantasticDan]

The numbers are crapYes Ralph, we know..

Obama #s = Crap

Trump #s = Rock Solid

:ThmbUp: :D

[JustRalph]

X

[elysiantraveller]

Yes Ralph, we know..

Obama #s = Crap

Trump #s = Rock Solid

:ThmbUp: :D

Confirmation bias. The sources are the same. Overall the economy is in slow growth mode.

[JustRalph]

Uh oh......

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/12/15/seasons-greatness-new-york-fed-nowcast-hits-4-0-gdp-growth/

Can we get to 4.5 by the end of year 3?

[JustRalph]

So we got a 2.6

I am optimistic that we see in excess of 4% before the end of 2018

[mostpost]

So we got a 2.6

I am optimistic that we see in excess of 4% before the end of 2018
Which was 1.4 lower than predicted in that Brietbart article. And that 2.6 was exceeded 14 times during the Obama administration.

[RunForTheRoses]

Read it and weep

http://www.businessinsider.com/atlanta-fed-gdp-now-forecasts-5-percent-growth-in-q1-2018-2

[davew]

Which was 1.4 lower than predicted in that Brietbart article. And that 2.6 was exceeded 14 times during the Obama administration.

The breitbart article was citing information released from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Nowcast.

[Saratoga_Mike]

We stopped tracking? Atlanta Fed puts 1Q18 real GDP at 1.8% now.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

In any case, GDP is a highly volatile, often-revised economic series. Therefore, I wouldn't place too much emphasis on the numbers in the short to intermediate term. But then again, I'm not trying to make a political point. The economy is better now than when Obama exited office, and it also certainly improved during Obama's two terms.

[PaceAdvantage]

You guys are relentless. We get it. Trump sucks. The country is going to shit.

MoveOn.org

[Saratoga_Mike]

You guys are relentless. We get it. Trump sucks. The country is going to shit.

MoveOn.org

Interesting reaction to "the economy is better now* than when Obama exited office." By interesting, I mean bizarre. Perhaps you were reacting to a prior post from last month. It must have been that, because I know you'd never react to the poster and not the post.

GDP growth is a function of productivity/population growth. I don't see any evidence of a pick up in population growth. One could argue the tax cuts will spur capital investment and drive productivity growth higher. That may happen, but it's unknowable at this point. I suspect there's too much leverage in the economy for sustained growth beyond the 2% to 3% level. I said that under Obama, and I'll say it under Trump.

*see weekly first-time unemployment claims

[JustRalph]

I had not seen the adjustment

I still think we are in great shape for the future.

Down here in Texas, everything is boom8ng.

I’m having trouble getting staff, as usual.....the labor market is getting tight

[Clocker]

I had not seen the adjustment

I still think we are in great shape for the future.

Down here in Texas, everything is boom8ng.

I’m having trouble getting staff, as usual.....the labor market is getting tight

The good news for you is that more people are moving to Texas. The bad news is that they are coming from California.

[JustRalph]

The good news for you is that more people are moving to Texas. The bad news is that they are coming from California.

They are wearing it on their sleeves too. Bumper stickers etc.

I figure it will take em 20 years to ruin the state. If I’m still around (doubt it) I will be too old to care

[classhandicapper]

Interesting reaction to "the economy is better now* than when Obama exited office." By interesting, I mean bizarre. Perhaps you were reacting to a prior post from last month. It must have been that, because I know you'd never react to the poster and not the post.

GDP growth is a function of productivity/population growth. I don't see any evidence of a pick up in population growth. One could argue the tax cuts will spur capital investment and drive productivity growth higher. That may happen, but it's unknowable at this point. I suspect there's too much leverage in the economy for sustained growth beyond the 2% to 3% level. I said that under Obama, and I'll say it under Trump.

*see weekly first-time unemployment claims

+1

Plus, now we have the headwind of it being late cycle and interest rates being raised by the Fed. That is going to start impacting home sales and/or home building if it isn't already. It's also part of the reason stocks are weakening.

I said it before the election and I'll say it again.

The probability of a recession and bear market under the watch of whoever won the election was very high and that person would take the blame for the excesses that were built under Obama.

[burnsy]

You guys are relentless. We get it. Trump sucks. The country is going to shit.

MoveOn.org

That's the thing......neither side gets "it". MoveOn.org would just piss the money away on something else.

While Trump threatens "trade war" with China......he cuts taxes.....who gives a crap about the GDP, its going to bump with the tax cut and the economic gains in recent years. Meanwhile, into more debt we go. Its hilarious, people argue over people that just go spending when the result is going to be the same, no matter what they spend on. They spend, spend, spend. It always looks great short term.

We are set to borrow another 300 billion, the most in one chunk since the melt down. Whose gonna buy most of that debt???????!!!!........China, yeah Trump you are really getting them! :D:D:D:D:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Keep arguing about who can "piss" the furthest boys! :lol: Thanks for the "tax cut"! LOL

[JustRalph]

Good news everybody!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/28/final-reading-on-us-q4-gdp-is-up-2-point-9-percent-vs-2-point-7-percent-growth-expected.html

[boxcar]

Good news everybody!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/28/final-reading-on-us-q4-gdp-is-up-2-point-9-percent-vs-2-point-7-percent-growth-expected.html

Crumbs...

[JustRalph]

CBO says highest in 15 years

They have been wrong so many times......:bang:

https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/cbo-projects-gdp-headed-15-year-high

[upthecreek]

https://twitter.com/Aramaithea/status/989131385960091649

[JustRalph]

Whoa Nelly!

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/06/01/atlanta-fed-boosts-second-quarter-gdp-forecast-to-4-8/

Why didn’t Obama do this?

He was so smart?..........

More

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-gdp-could-top-4-in-2nd-quarter-economists-say-2018-05-31

[RunForTheRoses]

Whoa Nelly!

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/06/01/atlanta-fed-boosts-second-quarter-gdp-forecast-to-4-8/

Why didn’t Obama do this?

He was so smart?..........

More

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-gdp-could-top-4-in-2nd-quarter-economists-say-2018-05-31


You didn't build that:


http://insider.foxnews.com/2018/06/03/huckabee-nancy-pelosi-comments-may-jobs-report-future-voice-democratic-party

[davew]

current Atlanta fed projections for 2nd quarter are over 4.5%


https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/Documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf

[JustRalph]

current Atlanta fed projections for 2nd quarter are over 4.5%


https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/Documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf

Why didn’t Obama do this? He was so smart......?

[elysiantraveller]

Why didn’t Obama do this? He was so smart......?

Citing trade and fiscal irresponsibility most economists are forecasting a recession within the next 2 years.

[tucker6]

Citing trade and fiscal irresponsibility most economists are forecasting a recession within the next 2 years.
Economists are notorious for missing the mark, mainly because the markets generally react in the opposite direction to statements and thus often delay or deny a prediction. Remember "irrational exuberance"? Problems occur when too many are running in one direction when there is no longer a reason to do so. It is an imbalance or imbalances within the economy that causes many of the ills we associate with a recession. At this point, our economy is more likely to overheat with inflation than it is to fall into recession.

[davew]

Why didn’t Obama do this? He was so smart......?

He did .... it just takes a few quarters for his efforts to see peaks ... you know like a speeding locomotive takes awhile to stop ... I am sure h2c or mostpost can show a graph with the speeding locomotive trend....

[JustRalph]

He did .... it just takes a few quarters for his efforts to see peaks ... you know like a speeding locomotive takes awhile to stop ... I am sure h2c or mostpost can show a graph with the speeding locomotive trend....

The train wreck that was Obama

[newtothegame]

Citing trade and fiscal irresponsibility most economists are forecasting a recession within the next 2 years.
Just more to solidify your true feelings.
Trump could come riding in on a rainbow, shitting unicorn milk and you would say the purple in the rainbow proves (fill in your own negative comment here).
Now your reply will be well "look at all the trumpettes who can see no wrong" lol
:headbanger:

[davew]

Why didn’t Obama do this? He was so smart......?

I thought he did many times, didn't mostpost show a chart?

[biggestal99]

The train wreck that was Obama

The economy under obama and now trump has been pretty steady since 2010.

Unemployment steadily has been coming down since then.

Labor participation continues to be a problem under Obama and now trump.

Economy rating B (under obama and trump)

Allan

[PaceAdvantage]

Why didn’t Obama do this? He was so smart......?Don't you get it. OBAMA DID DO IT.

We're just getting the delayed results of his UBER BRILLIANCE.

Damn Ralph. Why you be so slow in da head? :pound:

[JustRalph]

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/atlanta-fed-q2-gdp-estimate-rises-to-48-from-46-201806141617

If Trump gets five percent Dems will be slitting their own throats

[PaceAdvantage]

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/atlanta-fed-q2-gdp-estimate-rises-to-48-from-46-201806141617

If Trump gets five percent Dems will be slitting their own throatsNah, they'll just post more about who's gonna SING next. :lol::lol::lol:

They like to ignore stuff like this...unless it's the predictable "this is because of Obama" crap.

[tucker6]

Inflation will be a problem later next year unless the FED raises rates quite a bit this year. This excessive growth is my main concern with this economy.

[FocusWiz]

Inflation will be a problem later next year unless the FED raises rates quite a bit this year. This excessive growth is my main concern with this economy.Nobody talks about this.

We were nearly at the point of what is traditionally described as "full employment" when the government injected the tax cuts to help businesses and some individuals. While Obama was in office, I lamented his dislike for the "Bush Tax Cuts for the Wealthy" which he wanted to eliminate (until he made most of them permanent in the latter part of his administration as an extension of the "Middle Class Tax Cuts"). The economy needed a shot in the arm for most of his term, not increased taxes, but I admit that in retrospect, the economy eventually recovered and was rather solid when Trump took office.

We are already seeing it in parts of the country. "Help Wanted" signs and total incompetents being hired for jobs for which both the employee and employer are hoping they will qualify for. Last December I predicted a return of inflation and the signs of this happening are already there.

Inflation is not necessarily a problem if wages keep pace (in fact, runaway inflation would help us pay off the Chinese debt for pennies on the dollar), but it will take a significant toll on the ever increasing number of fixed-income seniors as the baby boomers retire. Likewise, the increased tariffs will likely add to the pressure to raise prices.

I cannot say I fully comprehend the impact that the increased tariffs and reduced exports (and imports) will have on the economy, since it will take time for the economy to adjust to these new rules, but if external goods cost more, it will add to inflation and if we have to build it here with the higher costs associated with the higher wages here at home, it will add to inflation. The only question will be how the demand curve shifts in response to the changes and how many businesses will not be able to survive the changes. If business failures increase sufficiently in response to the trade wars, perhaps there won't be any significant inflation to worry about.

I hope my projection of a return of the $4 gasoline price does not become a reality, but I am really not happy with the economy right now. Growth is good but an overheated economy is not. So much has changed in the last 10 years, that I believe it is uncertain how fast the economy can grow and how much unemployment can be reduced without having a negative impact.

We shall see.

[JustRalph]

Inflation will be a problem later next year unless the FED raises rates quite a bit this year. This excessive growth is my main concern with this economy.

After a lost decade of Obama, “excessive growth” is now a worry I won’t have.

[tucker6]

After a lost decade of Obama, “excessive growth” is now a worry I won’t have.

I hear ya, but my concern is an inflation reduced recession or stagnation just prior to the 2020 election.

[incoming]

I hear ya, but my concern is an inflation reduced recession or stagnation just prior to the 2020 election.

As we type, President Trump, is negotiating tariff reductions on our exports with our largest trading partners. Would this lower your inflation worries? Also, I think a balanced budget is in the future, as soon as the full impact of the tax cut are felt, would this help?

[elysiantraveller]

Also, I think a balanced budget is in the future, as soon as the full impact of the tax cut are felt, would this help?

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSp4Joi55eLX0xpFIb24-rEsEr2e-UwJmTsZvOONBJ_FKisuQ

[Clocker]

The CBO says the deficit is growing faster than previously expected, with tax cuts and increased government spending not producing the economic growth forecast. The deficit was projected to reach the $1 trillion mark in 2022, but that estimated has been revised to 2020.

The U.S. budget deficit will surpass $1 trillion by 2020, two years sooner than previously estimated, as tax cuts and spending increases signed by President Donald Trump do little to boost long-term economic growth, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Spending will exceed revenue by $804 billion in the fiscal year through September, jumping from a projected $563 billion shortfall forecast in June, the non-partisan arm of Congress said in a report Monday. In fiscal 2019, the deficit will reach $981 billion, compared with an earlier projection of $689 billion.

The nation’s budget gap was only set to surpass the trillion-dollar level in fiscal 2022 under CBO’s report last June.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-09/u-s-budget-deficit-to-balloon-to-1-trillion-by-2020-cbo-says

[incoming]

The CBO says the deficit is growing faster than previously expected, with tax cuts and increased government spending not producing the economic growth forecast. The deficit was projected to reach the $1 trillion mark in 2022, but that estimated has been revised to 2020.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-09/u-s-budget-deficit-to-balloon-to-1-trillion-by-2020-cbo-says

Trump said he would not sign another omnibus budget, he prefers individual appropriation bills. You know, the businessman approach, maybe that will help the deficit.

[Clocker]

Trump said he would not sign another omnibus budget, he prefers individual appropriation bills. You know, the businessman approach, maybe that will help the deficit.


Congress loves omnibus budget bills. It makes it a lot easier to hide pork. And when you put off all your work until the last minute, an omnibus bill is the only way to beat the deadline.

[incoming]

Congress loves omnibus budget bills. It makes it a lot easier to hide pork. And when you put off all your work until the last minute, an omnibus bill is the only way to beat the deadline.

Yep....one of the reasons that term limits have become a must...just like governors and presidents. Meanwhile, onward toward 6% GDP.

[JustRalph]

Linked news

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=146309

GDP 4.1


:lol::jump::lol::liar::headbanger:

[Saratoga_Mike]

Ralph has been busy, I'm sure, so I thought I'd update his work. The Atlanta Fed (real-time GDP tracking) now pegs 4Q18 real GDP at 2.4%.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

Personally, I view quarterly GDP as a less-than-optimal economic indicator, given it is prone to significant revisions in the short to intermediate term. I think weekly unemployment claims are one of the better high frequency economic indicators, but the title of the thread is "let's track GDP," not weekly claims.

I wonder if the economy experienced a short-term sugar high from deficit spending over the first few quarters of the year? Remember the deficit? It's what Trump supporters cared about (rightfully so) prior to Trump taking office. According to the WHITE HOUSE, the FY19 deficit should reach almost $1.1 trillion, or almost 5.5% of GDP.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/19msr.pdf

Any Trump supporters want to tell me how job creation has looked under Trump vs. Obama's last two years? Radically better? Not really.

Average monthly job creation by year:

Obama*
2015: 226k/month

2016: 195k/month

Trump
2017: 182k/month

2018: 206k/month

Source: the Trump Labor Dept

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

*I'm using Obama's last two years b/c that's the trend that Trump inherited.

So why does the labor market and the economy "feel" a lot better now? Because it is better. Classic late cycle dynamics--the job market tightens and wage gains start to improve (superior wage gain dynamics under Trump--did not happen during Obama's last two years).

I didn't vote for Obama, but I wonder if he'd blown the hell out of the deficit (ala Trump) if wage gains and labor force participation rates would have improved sooner???

[davew]

I may not be an economist, but isn't it harder to have monthly job creation when 4% unemployment than 10% unemployment? or is there no correlation at all?

[JustRalph]

You’re right I’m super busy......


Thanks for the update. Good stuff

[reckless]

I may not be an economist, but isn't it harder to have monthly job creation when 4% unemployment than 10% unemployment? or is there no correlation at all?

You make an excellent point. This is where Obama proved how stupid he was. He claimed he entered office in the 'worse economy since the Great Depression'. Yet, doing his 8-year term, he didn't grow the country greater than 2 per cent, despite starting from a very low GDP and horrible economy he claimed he inherited. He was bad in creating jobs too for all Americans, not just government workers.

Trump has grown the GDP, lowered unemployment to crazy levels and has lead this country in making it the financial engine of the entire world. All in two years. All Americans have benefited, too, despite the blind and ignorant 'experts' in the financial media to ignore and dismiss what Trump has done.

No need for apology, economists as a group are the laughing stock of the financial world, especially among those who actually make money and invest that money based on sound thinking, logic, and a grasp of reality.

[Clocker]

Trump has grown the GDP, lowered unemployment to crazy levels and has lead this country in making it the financial engine of the entire world. All in two years.

Trump did that all by himself, eh? How did he do that? :eek:

Presidents and their fans take a lot more credit for good economic news than they could possibly deserve, and similarly usually get a lot more blame for bad news.

Presidents can't and don't "grow the GDP" or "lower unemployment". A president contributes to an environment of an optimistic or pessimistic business outlook with favorable policies. To date, Trump has done a better job of that than Obama did. He isn't helping that lately with growing deficits, tariffs and talk of a shutdown.

[reckless]

Trump did that all by himself, eh? How did he do that? :eek:

Presidents and their fans take a lot more credit for good economic news than they could possibly deserve, and similarly usually get a lot more blame for bad news.

Presidents can't and don't "grow the GDP" or "lower unemployment". A president contributes to an environment of an optimistic or pessimistic business outlook with favorable policies. To date, Trump has done a better job of that than Obama did. He isn't helping that lately with growing deficits, tariffs and talk of a shutdown.

Ok, ok, we get it.

You are laughingly still in denial that you made a fool
of yourself since 2015 with all your anti -Trump rants and the like.

Trump laid the groundwork. He also is responsible for the GOP passing his Trump Tax and Reform bill, against the se GOP Leaderships agenda. Your kind of Republicans in the House establishment even wanted to include a border tax, which Trump fought against and won.

His trade policy is working as both China and the EU will soon follow the lead of Mexico and Canada -- they will capitulate as the gravy days are now over for these countries robbing the USA in trade. This decades' long pilfering was made possible by the corrupt 'free' traders in the GOP, the kind you seem to love so much.

Trump also turned back all the anti-business regulations signed by Obama. He did that all by himself, with a pen even.

Yes, this great US economy and promising future lays solely at the feet of one person -- Donald Trump. Thanks to him and his leadership we are the engine of growth in the world once again.

[Clocker]

Yes, this great US economy and promising future lays solely at the feet of one person -- Donald Trump.

The recession ended in June, 2009, about six months after Obama took office. The economy continued to grow over the next 7 1/2 years of the Obama administration, but at a slower than usual rate for a recovery because many of Obama's policies were not well received by the private sector. How is Trump responsible for that growth?

The growth continued after Trump's election, or after Hillary's defeat, for some time before Trump could get even begin to implement his changes. Anything that happened because of him was on top of a solid foundation of 8 years of growth.

To repeat, the influence of the president on the economy is a lot less than the fan boys claim on the up side, and a lot less than the detractors claim on the down side.

[Saratoga_Mike]

The recession ended in June, 2009, about six months after Obama took office. The economy continued to grow over the next 7 1/2 years of the Obama administration, but at a slower than usual rate for a recovery because many of Obama's policies were not well received by the private sector. How is Trump responsible for that growth?

The growth continued after Trump's election, or after Hillary's defeat, for some time before Trump could get even begin to implement his changes. Anything that happened because of him was on top of a solid foundation of 8 years of growth.

To repeat, the influence of the president on the economy is a lot less than the fan boys claim on the up side, and a lot less than the detractors claim on the down side.

Reckless is a Fifth Ave Trump supporter. If Trump shot someone on live TV, Reckless would blame the news media for recording it.

[reckless]

Reckless is a Fifth Ave Trump supporter. If Trump shot someone on live TV, Reckless would blame the news media for recording it.

Mike, stop talking stupid, please.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I may not be an economist, but isn't it harder to have monthly job creation when a) 4% unemployment than b) 10% unemployment? or is there no correlation at all?

a) to some degree and b) it depends.

As economic cycles matures (letter a), it can be more difficult to find qualified candidates for openings (certainly a factor now), which is what I believe you're referencing.

The 10% answer (letter b) isn't possible to answer without additional information (i.e., trend- is the number falling or rising). You could certainly hire people more easily at 10% unemployment, but that doesn't get at your question related to job creation.

I know you and many on this board strongly dislike Obama,* but if you're honest, I think you'll admit you were surprised by the job creation comparison (Trump vs. last two years (trend) under Obama).

*Personally I found it very offensive when Obama said "you didn't build this business," or something very close to that.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Mike, stop talking stupid, please.

You believe Trump belongs on Mt Rushmore and you tell me to "stop talking stupid?" To quote Bob Novak, delicious.

[Saratoga_Mike]

You’re right I’m super busy......


Thanks for the update. Good stuff

I hope your biz is doing well.

[reckless]

The recession ended in June, 2009, about six months after Obama took office. The economy continued to grow over the next 7 1/2 years of the Obama administration, but at a slower than usual rate for a recovery because many of Obama's policies were not well received by the private sector. How is Trump responsible for that growth?

The growth continued after Trump's election, or after Hillary's defeat, for some time before Trump could get even begin to implement his changes. Anything that happened because of him was on top of a solid foundation of 8 years of growth.

To repeat, the influence of the president on the economy is a lot less than the fan boys claim on the up side, and a lot less than the detractors claim on the down side.

How come in 8 years under Obama the GDP averaged less than 2 percent cent annually? That's some growth you say was a solid foundation. :lol:

Under Trump the GDP has exceeded Obama's by many lengths, despite your criticism.

And this was a great foundation that began with the worst economy since the Great Depression.

Under Trump all time record lows in unemployment rate in all demographics. Ignoring that too. Business and consumer confidence at levels Obama never got close to.

I know you are right and the rest of the fan boys are clueless. Also clueless are the millions working that didn't work under Obama, and the record billions in the US Treasury that didn't exist under Obama, too. All thanks to Trump.

Live in your fantasy world clocker.

[Clocker]

How come in 8 years under Obama the GDP averaged less than 2 percent cent annually? That's some growth you say was a solid foundation.
Growth that would normally happen at 3 percent and take 3-4 years was only at 2 percent and took 8 years. The end result is the same place. But not according to the Trumpsters. And no one got shot on 5th Ave. :rolleyes:

[Saratoga_Mike]

Flash US PMI (purchasing managers index*) hit today --- 53.9, the lowest level in a year. In addition, the Future Output Index fell to a 26-month low.

*0.75 correlation with GDP, according to a St Louis Fed study from 2016.

The stock market may know more than we think.

Above foots with a GDP slowdown. That is not a political statement. It's data.

[Clocker]

That is not a political statement. It's data.
Many people have their minds made up. Don't confuse them with facts. :rolleyes:

[Ocala Mike]

The stock market may know more than we think.



Down 10% since Oct. 3rd. (the Dow - many stocks have fallen much more).

[reckless]

You believe Trump belongs on Mt Rushmore and you tell me to "stop talking stupid?" To quote Bob Novak, delicious.

Speaking of delicious, are you implying that all what the USA has accomplished since Trump's election -- much higher GDP growth; much lower unemployment; higher participation rate; reversing one-sided trade deals that cost this country 100s of billions of annual deficits; negotiating and receiving concessions and lowered tariffs from China, Canada, Mexico, Japan and EU that benefit our manufacturers and other exporters, plus record high equity levels in the stock market, higher levels of consumer confidence, lower tax rates and more ... are you really saying that all this would have also happened under a Hillary! Jeb! Rubio Bernie presidency??

All this economic growth and success in this country belongs solely to Trump and his policies, and very little to those 'true' Republicans that has fought against Trump from jump street.

Talk stupid all you want. It's becoming of you.

[sammy the sage]

and the record billions in the US Treasury that didn't exist under Obama, too. All thanks to Trump.

You forgot one SMALL fact....

https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_debt_chart

Which makes your above statement...mute...

[burnsy]

I may not be an economist, but isn't it harder to have monthly job creation when 4% unemployment than 10% unemployment? or is there no correlation at all?




yeah, well I am. Not a cop, fireman or work with horses. Actually went to college and got the degree. Not a "political person" either, straight facts. Heres the thing. When its full employment and growth is slowing......wages must rise. That's part of the "pessimism" on next year. You gotta have 3% growth just to keep up with the money this govt pisses away. And the job market will demand higher wages. That lowers corporate profits. Mike is also right, the data is way more important then what political clowns spout. There are already some crying to print more money with these bogus interest rates and trade wars there could eventually be a bout of inflation. If wages stay stagnant like they have for decades that just adds to the growth problem. Wages will rise some.


There are already several billionaire investors that are way better than I am saying the market could take a 20% hit and one that says this "debt Bubble" could be the worst recession in his lifetime...hes 76 years old. Its not Obamas fault or Trumps fault...its the way its the way the Fed and the Govt have been doing things for years. Things get built up bigger or longer than they should be...then the dam bursts. Although Trumps tariff deals just make the situation worse. The minute he tweeted hes the "Tariff Man" the market responded. They don't want it. Our trade deficit just jumped to a 10 year high. So, he, and all the political clowns that say, "Business Man gonna fix the trade deficit with tariffs"......are full of crap. That was disproved like 300 years ago. We were the first country that went full bore with somewhat open markets and have reaped the benefits.


Right now, the folks on top are looking at, growth slowing, wages rising and the interest on the debt ballooning. Not a bright year ahead, maybe. Cause its a little like the weather. The way the economy is firing with all the activity and employment maybe growth will just slow a little bit. Then all of this will be kicked down the road for a while. But every thing in my gut, from the way I've observed and learned over the years. Tells me that the status quo of debt, printing and winging it to get by, will be paid for heavily some day. To make it simple.....you give your kid a credit card with an unlimited spending cap. How does that not get ugly some day?


Like every drop before. It crashes or recedes. Regular folk lose jobs. Unemployment expands exponentially. Demand falls through the floor and it takes years to recover. People don't want facts.....the facts and reality are scary. They almost would rather deny it. That's sort of what this Democrat vs. Republican crap is all about. Both sides have been pissing a trillion a year away.....a freaking trillion! Even when times were good! There will be a day of recompense! History has proved many a time that you cant print money your problems away!

[barahona44]

I had an economics professor tell us (c.1974), that when unemployment goes below a certain number, people aren't looking for jobs; jobs are looking for people.And that means wage inflation.

[JustRalph]

I had an economics professor tell us (c.1974), that when unemployment goes below a certain number, people aren't looking for jobs; jobs are looking for people.And that means wage inflation.

That’s the damn truth.......I just had to adjust my wages.

If you live in Texas and don’t have a job........you are dead

[Buckeye]

yeah, well I am. Not a cop, fireman or work with horses. Actually went to college and got the degree. Not a "political person" either, straight facts. Heres the thing. When its full employment and growth is slowing......wages must rise. That's part of the "pessimism" on next year. You gotta have 3% growth just to keep up with the money this govt pisses away. And the job market will demand higher wages. That lowers corporate profits. Mike is also right, the data is way more important then what political clowns spout. There are already some crying to print more money with these bogus interest rates and trade wars there could eventually be a bout of inflation. If wages stay stagnant like they have for decades that just adds to the growth problem. Wages will rise some.


There are already several billionaire investors that are way better than I am saying the market could take a 20% hit and one that says this "debt Bubble" could be the worst recession in his lifetime...hes 76 years old. Its not Obamas fault or Trumps fault...its the way its the way the Fed and the Govt have been doing things for years. Things get built up bigger or longer than they should be...then the dam bursts. Although Trumps tariff deals just make the situation worse. The minute he tweeted hes the "Tariff Man" the market responded. They don't want it. Our trade deficit just jumped to a 10 year high. So, he, and all the political clowns that say, "Business Man gonna fix the trade deficit with tariffs"......are full of crap. That was disproved like 300 years ago. We were the first country that went full bore with somewhat open markets and have reaped the benefits.


Right now, the folks on top are looking at, growth slowing, wages rising and the interest on the debt ballooning. Not a bright year ahead, maybe. Cause its a little like the weather. The way the economy is firing with all the activity and employment maybe growth will just slow a little bit. Then all of this will be kicked down the road for a while. But every thing in my gut, from the way I've observed and learned over the years. Tells me that the status quo of debt, printing and winging it to get by, will be paid for heavily some day. To make it simple.....you give your kid a credit card with an unlimited spending cap. How does that not get ugly some day?


Like every drop before. It crashes or recedes. Regular folk lose jobs. Unemployment expands exponentially. Demand falls through the floor and it takes years to recover. People don't want facts.....the facts and reality are scary. They almost would rather deny it. That's sort of what this Democrat vs. Republican crap is all about. Both sides have been pissing a trillion a year away.....a freaking trillion! Even when times were good! There will be a day of recompense! History has proved many a time that you cant print money your problems away!

I clearly see you're basically an optimist.

My suggestion is, if you don't mind, study history a bit more.

[Buckeye]

By the way, not to disagree with myself but HISTORY is at best only a general guide to the future. In the largest sense we are on our own!

No professor told me this.

[summersquall]

Attenuated to Burnsey's post the following link posits on what some might find to be interesting correlations between monetary supply-tax revenues-market levels. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCwRkC9Hhxc

[sammy the sage]

I clearly see you're basically an optimist.

My suggestion is, if you don't mind, study history a bit more.

Actually...I think you're the one who needs to study history...I agree with his take pretty much...

Optimist/pessimist...labeling people to try and make some sort of VAGUE point...really don't fly in THE face of FACTS...

[reckless]

You forgot one SMALL fact....

https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_debt_chart

Which makes your above statement...mute...

What you linked has little to do with what I posted and the point I made, but I expected such.

Not dismissing the federal debt but until the debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 115+ per cent, the geniuses in Wash DC will continue to spend and waste money... and tax. We're at a dangerous 107 per cent now.

This is just the steel and aluminum tariffs; now that China and the other trading partners have agreed to lowering their tariffs, buy more of our goods such as cars and soybeans, etc., this will add moolah to the US Treasury and narrow the deficit (but not the federal debt; that needs radical change and the country is too soft for the required medicine needed.)

The Trump administration has assessed $4.4 billion worth of duties on steel and aluminum imports and a range of goods from China under the tariffs it imposed in an effort to protect U.S. companies.

A spokesman for the Department of Homeland Security told the Washington Examiner that importers owe the federal government $4.4 billion for importing goods hit by the tariffs through Oct. 2, but said it was unclear how much of that total has been collected. The Treasury Department didn't have details on what portion of the $4.4 billion had been collected, and how much was still owed.

Still, the assessments show that the tariffs are imposing a real cost to importers, who are responsible for paying the charge.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/trump-tariffs-raise-4-4-billion-and-counting

[reckless]

Reckless is a Fifth Ave Trump supporter. If Trump shot someone on live TV, Reckless would blame the news media for recording it.

I don't ever recall you mentioning that the media has ignored the corruption in the FBI, CIA, et al, pertaining to their framing of Trump with their attempt to overturn a duly elected President's election? Or about the proven corruption and sedition (treason to some) by the Clinton Foundation? Or worse, under Obama, his Administration's DoJ/FBI/CIA's collusion with Russia for the benefit of electing Hillary!? And a helluva lot more criminality ignored or pooh-poohed.

BUT especially the media's ignoring of the tremendous growth in our country's economy -- thanks solely to Trump and his policies of tax cuts, reform, trade and deregulation? Record low levels of unemployment too, wage increases -- systematically ignored for the convenience of the common sense deniers and Trump haters.

Financial 'wizards' such as Obama and clocker spent 3 years openly knocking Trump as an idiot and saying that none of the policies he ran on and wants to do, will work.

Now that these very same Trump policies have indeed worked, spectacularly and the USA is once again the financial engine of the world Obama is taking credit for this unprecedented success.

And resident genius clocker has also credited Obama. Amazing but typical and expected.

Facts do matter ... until the facts laugh at the Trump critics and know-it-alls, right?

[sammy the sage]

What you linked has little to do with what I posted and the point I made, but I expected such.

Not dismissing the federal debt but until the debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 115+ per cent, the geniuses in Wash DC will continue to spend and waste money... and tax. We're at a dangerous 107 per cent now.

This is just the steel and aluminum tariffs; now that China and the other trading partners have agreed to lowering their tariffs, buy more of our goods such as cars and soybeans, etc., this will add moolah to the US Treasury and narrow the deficit (but not the federal debt; that needs radical change and the country is too soft for the required medicine needed.)



https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/trump-tariffs-raise-4-4-billion-and-counting

Actually I got it...as did most people here...Trump should get credit for increasing revenue...to SOME extent that's true...Clocker made a few valid points elsewhere...

But he DID SIGN off on INCREASING the National Debt...which MORE THAN offsets the increased revenue...my point...

It really DOESN'T matter if THE deficit is narrowed...IF THE debt increases at A FASTER rate...

I will give Trump credit tho...the Tariffs are a form of TAX...like a tourist tax if you will....this has also been discussed by others here in other threads...at least THE man is trying....congress HAS BEEN worthless...:puke::rant:

[Clocker]

And resident genius clocker has also credited Obama. Amazing but typical and expected.


Poor reading comprehension, or just deliberately obtuse? I said that presidents have less impact on the economy than they are given credit or blame for. I also said that there was some 7 years of growth during Obama's time in office. I did not say he was the cause of it. I also pointed out that the growth was slower under Obama than what is normal for recovery from a recession.

[Clocker]

I will give Trump credit tho...the Tariffs are a form of TAX...like a tourist tax if you will....this has also been discussed by others here in other threads...at least THE man is trying....congress HAS BEEN worthless...:puke::rant:

How is it a tourist tax if it is paid by American consumers?

Trump is "trying" something that has been tried and failed many times in the past. Tariffs are taxes that protect a chosen few at the expense of the American public.

And he is trying to fix something that ain't broke. He has an irrational fixation about America losing manufacturing jobs and thinks that his tariffs will bring them back. He is totally blind to the reality that most lost manufacturing jobs were due to increased productivity and automation.

[Buckeye]

What you linked has little to do with what I posted and the point I made, but I expected such.

Not dismissing the federal debt but until the debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 115+ per cent, the geniuses in Wash DC will continue to spend and waste money... and tax. We're at a dangerous 107 per cent now.

This is just the steel and aluminum tariffs; now that China and the other trading partners have agreed to lowering their tariffs, buy more of our goods such as cars and soybeans, etc., this will add moolah to the US Treasury and narrow the deficit (but not the federal debt; that needs radical change and the country is too soft for the required medicine needed.)



https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/trump-tariffs-raise-4-4-billion-and-counting

Are you suggesting a Convention of the States Article 5 solution?

[Clocker]

The Trump administration has assessed $4.4 billion worth of duties on steel and aluminum imports and a range of goods from China under the tariffs it imposed in an effort to protect U.S. companies.
All of which was passed on to the American consumer in higher prices. And the tariffs allowed American companies to raise their prices, which were also passed on to the American consumer.

[Buckeye]

All of which was passed on to the American consumer in higher prices. And the tariffs allowed American companies to raise their prices, which were also passed on to the American consumer.

It's not better to just "lie down" and take it from China.

[Clocker]

It's not better to just "lie down" and take it from China.
Take what from China? Lower priced consumer goods that hold down the cost of living of Americans?

A trade deficit is not a bad thing for a highly developed country. The US has been running one since the late 70s. Our economy keeps growing, wages go up, and people have a higher standard of living. All helped by those evil Chinese.

A trade deficit means a capital surplus. That means that foreigners are investing more in the US than we are investing in foreign countries. That means more jobs for Americans.

Bottom line: lower prices and more foreign investment as a result of trade. And Trump wants to put an end to that. :faint:

[Saratoga_Mike]

* 2Q19 real GDP growth was 2% (released last week).

* The Atlanta Fed is projecting 3Q19 real GDP at 1.7% (the 3Q19 forecast embeds strong consumer activity, offset by weaker investment spending).

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

[elysiantraveller]

* 2Q19 real GDP growth was 2% (released last week).

* The Atlanta Fed is projecting 3Q19 real GDP at 1.7% (the 3Q19 forecast embeds strong consumer activity, offset by weaker investment spending).

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

Sugar High has worn off...

[Ocala Mike]

Sugar High has worn off...

Guess the administration will have to come up with something to keep everyone's Bg up, then. What will it be - Do away with the Fed? Cancel the income tax? Subsidies for all, a la the big bad socialist dems? Stay tuned.

"It's the stupid, economy!

[biggestal99]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/economy-grows-21-in-the-4th-quarter-as-gdp-gets-big-boost-from-falling-trade-deficit-2020-01-30?mod=entertainment

2.1% for 4q2019

2.3% for full year 2019

Allan

PS-2.3% growth is Trumps worst year yet.

[biggestal99]

:popcorn:So we got a 2.6

I am optimistic that we see in excess of 4% before the end of 2018

It’s 2020. Still looking for that elusive white whale.

Trump economy is just a continuation of the Obama recovery.

Allan

[FantasticDan]

https://twitter.com/keithboykin/status/1222875767664713730

[Tom]

Deniers.


When you look at your 401K, you don'wt look at percentage, you look at the bottom line. :lol:

401k value - $5,000 dollars
Increase - 2%

401k value - $50,000
Increase - 1.5 %

Which one ya gonna take, Al?

[biggestal99]

Deniers.


When you look at your 401K, you don'wt look at percentage, you look at the bottom line. :lol:

401k value - $5,000 dollars
Increase - 2%

401k value - $50,000
Increase - 1.5 %

Which one ya gonna take, Al?

Deniers?

My 401k went up under both Obama and trump.

Trump economy is exactly the same as Obama.s and my 401k is Happy.

As long as we stay away from the w economy everything will be good.

Allan

Allan

[FantasticDan]

https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1222878215116599296

https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1222882659921276930

[fast4522]

Deniers?

My 401k went up under both Obama and trump.

Trump economy is exactly the same as Obama.s and my 401k is Happy.

As long as we stay away from the w economy everything will be good.

Allan

Allan

Not even close, I had a bunch of friends stuck in suck jobs now held by people who really needed a job. Those friends I speak about all are making more money than the jobs they left.

[Tom]

First they say Trump will destroy the economy, then when it hits new heights, it is Obama's polices...after 3 years! :lol::lol::lol:

[JustRalph]

Growth is growth. The most important thing is


























Hillary is still not Prez

[biggestal99]

Growth is growth.




Did you say the same EXACT thing when Obama was president and grew the economy at the EXACT same rate. or is that only for the current president.


Allan (who give both Obama and Trump the same amount of credit for avoiding recession, keeping inflation down, adding jobs, and growing the economy at a steady pace)

[Tom]

Obama never saw an economy this good.
Other his own that is.

[davew]

Did you say the same EXACT thing when Obama was president and grew the economy at the EXACT same rate. or is that only for the current president.


Allan (who give both Obama and Trump the same amount of credit for avoiding recession, keeping inflation down, adding jobs, and growing the economy at a steady pace)

0bamas NEW IDEA Normal was always below 2

[JustRalph]

Did you say the same EXACT thing when Obama was president and grew the economy at the EXACT same rate. or is that only for the current president.


Allan (who give both Obama and Trump the same amount of credit for avoiding recession, keeping inflation down, adding jobs, and growing the economy at a steady pace)

You’re hysterical

[PaceAdvantage]

Obama had zero vision or optimism.

How could he? He knew that if the US was forced to continue down the Dem path (ie. "inevitable" Hillary victory), there WAS NO WAY America could grow at a higher rate. Dem policies would ENSURE that...

But, luckily for AMERICA, Hillary didn't win...

[horses4courses]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQz2HlJWoAIhriF?format=jpg&name=small

[biggestal99]

Obama never saw an economy this good.
Other his own that is.

The facts of course belie that opinion.

Allan

[biggestal99]

Obama had zero vision or optimism.

How could he? He knew that if the US was forced to continue down the Dem path (ie. "inevitable" Hillary victory), there WAS NO WAY America could grow at a higher rate. Dem policies would ENSURE that...

But, luckily for AMERICA, Hillary didn't win...

This isn’t about Obama had vision, it’s that he grew the economy, kept us away from inflation and recession oh yes and got re-elected.

Like him or hate him.

He got us out of a pretty bad recession.

Allan

[biggestal99]

You’re hysterical

What’s hysterical about the facts over Obama’s and trumps 11 year run of growing the economy.

Allan

[Tom]

The facts of course belie that opinion.

Allan

Keep telling yourself that.
I think he did, I think he did, I think he did......Choo chooo choooo!

[FantasticDan]

https://twitter.com/RoKhanna/status/1229424513202323458

[horses4courses]

So, the Fed has injected $500 billion into the financial market since Oct 2019?

This presidency is built on lies and sustained with even bigger ones.

[JustRalph]

So, the Fed has injected $500 billion into the financial market since Oct 2019?

This presidency is built on lies and sustained with even bigger ones.

So why didn’t Obama do it?

He’s so damn smart.

Blacks and minorities employed off the charts.

Businesses growing, spending like crazy.

Wages rising!

Tell me why Obama didn’t cut taxes? Why didn’t he do these great things?

I know why......he would rather the money go into the government coffers so he could control it

But, he was so damn smart...........

[FantasticDan]

LULZ

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1229762017759834112

[woodtoo]

OOOOHHH!! CNN scary stuff.:lol:

[rastajenk]

Vox and CNN is a bad parlay.

[SkunkApe]

Remember: the people telling you now that this outstanding economy is a continuation of President Obama’s policies are the same ones that where telling you, four years ago, that there would be worldwide financial ruin when Trump was elected.

They have no shame.

[woodtoo]

Remember: the people telling you now that this outstanding economy is a continuation of President Obama’s policies are the same ones that where telling you, four years ago, that there would be worldwide financial ruin when Trump was elected.

They have no shame.

Not to mention the wars that would be started.:lol:

[FantasticDan]

:headbanger:

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1229432034650722304

[rastajenk]

Well of course he would say that. You can't spell Barack Obama without the letter "I".

[JustRalph]

:headbanger:

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1229432034650722304

Yeah, and suddenly it kicked in around June 2018

[davew]

Yeah, and suddenly it kicked in around June 2018

but it helped some big banks and FORD, not workers so much

[biggestal99]

but it helped some big banks and FORD, not workers so much

We shall see how trumps package does.

Allan

[GMB@BP]

Well of course he would say that. You can't spell Barack Obama without the letter "I".

I am not a BO apologist but thats what politicians do. The first one who does not take credit for this or that will actually be the first one.