Is This a good Longshot?

[jay68802]

I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.

Belmont Race #8:

Like the :4: here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.

[TheOracle]

I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.

Belmont Race #8:

Like the :4: here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.


Hey Jay,

I looked at that race also, J C Englehart's horses have been pretty tough on the Turf at Belmont when going less than 1 Mile (Sprints)


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/j c englharttrflessmlbel.jpg

Maybe you play him with the 7 and hopefully catch the exacta

You never know

[AndyC]

I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.

Belmont Race #8:

Like the :4: here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.

If what you write is true, why would the horse be a longshot? There has got to be more to the story. Rarely do horses that are tops in figs end up being longshots.

[jay68802]

Using Brisnet PPs, top figure was earned 6 races back, with Rosario as the jockey

[FakeNameChanged]

I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.

Belmont Race #8:

Like the :4: here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.
So he has one race in a year and manages to lose by 4-1/4L's from PP#12. With 10 horses all within 4 l's, it must have been a cavalry charge. I'd be watching for anything unusual on the tote board. Were they really trying with him in his return @ 38-1? The :6: at 15-1 ML comes out of same race and had a solid bump near the wire while closing to 1-3/4 L's. Many returnees coming out of that race. Sometimes it pays to look at who didn't come out of that same race. But I like your thinking.

[Nutz and Boltz]

I'm thinking that Manoffire may be too far back early to win here.

[jay68802]

So he has one race in a year and manages to lose by 4-1/4L's from PP#12. With 10 horses all within 4 l's, it must have been a cavalry charge. I'd be watching for anything unusual on the tote board. Were they really trying with him in his return @ 38-1? The :6: at 15-1 ML comes out of same race and had a solid bump near the wire while closing to 1-3/4 L's. Many returnees coming out of that race. Sometimes it pays to look at who didn't come out of that same race. But I like your thinking.

Funny you mention the :6: in that race, i have him as my second horse.

[Nutz and Boltz]

Using Brisnet PPs, top figure was earned 6 races back, with Rosario as the jockey


That 6th race back was over 2 years ago. If healthy, I'd take the one horse in this race. A lot of layoff lines showing, though. The nine horse is dropping to state bred competition.

[jay68802]

That 6th race back was over 2 years ago.

You are right, my thinking is it just proves that the basic requirement to win this race is there.

[jay68802]

Closed again, either needs more pace or a drop in class. In the end was not a good bet.

[n.c]

the fact that all other horses seem to be in way better condition...
personally i would have keyed Jason Servis horse, at 6-1 at the top 2 spots, but it finished 3rd:D

Servis the ttrainer a plus
horse 5 out of 6 in the money at Belmont
2 for 2 hitting the board at this distance
Servis horse threw a clunker last time out, so the horse will be better prepared.

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #8: 9/28/17

:1: Smile Big 10-1

Does not need the lead and the speed in this race looks suspect. Rudy and Ortiz have won a few races together. Had this filly going in the right direction, then was put on the turf and never got involved. Gets back on the dirt and the favorite is taking a very suspicious drop in class.

[thaskalos]

A separate thread for each longshot? Seems excessive.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Did you guys notice Fairy Link in the 4th today?
Krist nailed him with a 15-1 ML...! Good Guy...
http://www.kristpicks.com/

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?date=2017-09-27&track=BEL&country=USA&race=4&type=inc&print=on

Joe has been hot lately too...Same agent as Jose who is out with sore knee...Look for Joe to boot more sleepers in soon....

[TheOracle]

Hey Jay,

I looked at that race also, J C Englehart's horses have been pretty tough on the Turf at Belmont when going less than 1 Mile (Sprints)


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/j c englharttrflessmlbel.jpg

Maybe you play him with the 7 and hopefully catch the exacta

You never know

J C Englehart really disappointed me in that race

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/j c englehartdisapntbel.jpg

Of course I didn't have Isotope in the 3rd

[TheOracle]

Belmont Race #8: 9/28/17

:1: Smile Big 10-1

Does not need the lead and the speed in this race looks suspect. Rudy and Ortiz have won a few races together. Had this filly going in the right direction, then was put on the turf and never got involved. Gets back on the dirt and the favorite is taking a very suspicious drop in class.

I don't know about the #1 since I don't handicap but if I had to try to beat Brown's horse today I would go with D A Cannizzo's horse #8 Rachel's Temper

Cannizzo's horses have been doing well in Allowance Optional Claiming* races on the Dirt as I see it going back to May 1st 2016

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/d a cannizzoalwoptbeldrt.jpg

It might not win but it could hit the board at a decent price

*I treat any Optional Claiming (i.e. Starter Optional Claiming, Optional Claiming,,, etc.) as Allowance Optional Claiming

[jay68802]

A separate thread for each longshot? Seems excessive.

Correct, had a brain fart when I did that.

[DeltaLover]

What makes you to believe that it is a good idea to start a new thread with the same name and topic with an existing one?

[PaceAdvantage]

Threads merged

[jay68802]

Thanks PA.

[jay68802]

I don't know about the #1 since I don't handicap but if I had to try to beat Brown's horse today I would go with D A Cannizzo's horse #8 Rachel's Temper

Cannizzo's horses have been doing well in Allowance Optional Claiming* races on the Dirt as I see it going back to May 1st 2016

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/d a cannizzoalwoptbeldrt.jpg

It might not win but it could hit the board at a decent price

*I treat any Optional Claiming (i.e. Starter Optional Claiming, Optional Claiming,,, etc.) as Allowance Optional Claiming

The decision a handicapper often faces, go with the hot trainer and jockey, as you have pointed out. :ThmbUp: Or go with the guy(Rudy) who has been on a bad streak of late but can turn around at any moment. Hopefully he can get his "juice" back from Navaro.:D

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #5: 9/29/17


:3: Cursor 8-1

Short field long price. Speed figures are a little light. Trainer or jockey do not have overwhelming numbers. Coming off a break with 3 nice works in a row. But I think this horse has 1 big advantage. The only closer in a race full of speed.

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #5: 9/29/17


:3: Cursor 8-1

Short field long price. Speed figures are a little light. Trainer or jockey do not have overwhelming numbers. Coming off a break with 3 nice works in a row. But I think this horse has 1 big advantage. The only closer in a race full of speed.

Race went as I thought it would, and got a win. Did not think I would only get 7-2, thought it would be 9-2 to 5-1. Paid more to show than to win.

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #5: 9/30/17

:8: Alex the Terror 12-1

Another one with out the trainer of jockey. Get's a good PP, and from there has a very good trip. 3 wins at the distance, and the highest speed figure at the distance.

[TheOracle]

Race went as I thought it would, and got a win. Did not think I would only get 7-2, thought it would be 9-2 to 5-1. Paid more to show than to win.

Nice score bro

[TheOracle]

Belmont Race #5: 9/30/17

:8: Alex the Terror 12-1

Another one with out the trainer of jockey. Get's a good PP, and from there has a very good trip. 3 wins at the distance, and the highest speed figure at the distance.

I find it interesting that J C Englehart had #8 Alex The Terror

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/j c englehartalwoptbel.jpg

G Sciacca has the horse now and has been showing some positive returns across the board in Allowance Optional Claiming* races

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/g sciaccaalwopt.jpg

It is also interesting that #8 Alex The Terror
came out of that Claiming Merry Go Round Trickery race the --- Life In Shambles incident:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=140535

At any rate, maybe you are on to something and G Sciacca pops a big price to hit the board with this horse!!!

*I treat any Optional Claiming (i.e. Starter Optional Claiming, Optional Claiming,,, etc.) as Allowance Optional Claiming

[jay68802]

Nice score bro

Thank you, and since you brought up Engelhart, he is drawn just inside of the :8: in this race and puts Ortiz up. I really like the fact that Alex the Terror can see the main speed in the race from the start. Gives him a clear view of his target.

[TheOracle]

Thank you, and since you brought up Engelhart, he is drawn just inside of the :8: in this race and puts Ortiz up. I really like the fact that Alex the Terror can see the main speed in the race from the start. Gives him a clear view of his target.


The other piece of good news is that Brown's horses have been struggling in Allowance Optional Claiming* races on the Dirt at Belmont this year!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/c c brownstrugglesalwoptbel.jpg

His Morning Lines less than 3-1 in Allowance Optional Claiming* races on the Dirt so far have been struggling so #3 Favorable Outcome might get beat today!!!


*I treat any Optional Claiming (i.e. Starter Optional Claiming, Optional Claiming,,, etc.) as Allowance Optional Claiming

[TheOracle]

M A Hennig's Maidens have been hitting the board at a 67% rate on the Dirt at Belmont since May 5th!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/m a hennigmdsbel.jpg

You are getting an 86% return per $2 win place and show wager on his Maidens on the Dirt at Belmont!!!

He has this Maiden on the Dirt today at Belmont:

6th race
#8 Fortune Street

Let's see if he can get this one to hit the board at a price today at Belmont!!!

[jay68802]

Finger Lakes #8: 10/2/17

:11: 5-1

Draws the outside post and forces the jockey's hand. Wire to wire is the way this one goes.

[jay68802]

Finger Lakes #8: 10/2/17

:11: 5-1

Draws the outside post and forces the jockey's hand. Wire to wire is the way this one goes.

When your need the lead horse is a step slow out of the gate and then never gets the lead, the only thing you can do is watch and see how far back he is going to finish.

[jay68802]

Parx Race #3:


:6: Simplylucky 8-1

Two trainer angles to like, and if she fires one of her better races should be there at the wire. Three works during the break and the one on September 1st was catches my interest.

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #9: 10/4/17


:9: Renewal 8-1

Claimed out of her 1st start where she attempted to stalk and pounce, finished a respectable 2nd. Moves up in class and tries turf for the first time. Breeding says she will take to the turf. A work showing after her last race, happens to be the fastest yet.

[ReplayRandall]

Belmont Race #9: 10/4/17


:9: Renewal 8-1

Claimed out of her 1st start where she attempted to stalk and pounce, finished a respectable 2nd. Moves up in class and tries turf for the first time. Breeding says she will take to the turf. A work showing after her last race, happens to be the fastest yet.

Hoping to get 6-1 on this piece.....:ThmbUp:

[jay68802]

Hoping to get 6-1 on this piece.....:ThmbUp:

i am thinking more along the lines of 8 to 10-1.

[ReplayRandall]

i am thinking more along the lines of 8 to 10-1.

That would be great....but don't think so.

[jay68802]

Hoping to get 6-1 on this piece.....:ThmbUp:

Dead on, odds at post time were 6-1.

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #8: 10/5/17


:8: Life In Shambles 8-1

2nd off the claim for Asmussen, Ortiz gets the ride. Draws outside and gets plenty of speed to heat the pace.

[TheOracle]

Belmont Race #8: 10/5/17


:8: Life In Shambles 8-1

2nd off the claim for Asmussen, Ortiz gets the ride. Draws outside and gets plenty of speed to heat the pace.

Hey jay

That is the horse I was referring to in this post

I find it interesting that J C Englehart had #8 Alex The Terror

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/j c englehartalwoptbel.jpg

G Sciacca has the horse now and has been showing some positive returns across the board in Allowance Optional Claiming* races

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/g sciaccaalwopt.jpg

It is also interesting that #8 Alex The Terror
came out of that Claiming Merry Go Round Trickery race the --- Life In Shambles incident:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=140535

At any rate, maybe you are on to something and G Sciacca pops a big price to hit the board with this horse!!!

*I treat any Optional Claiming (i.e. Starter Optional Claiming, Optional Claiming,,, etc.) as Allowance Optional Claiming

Maybe after all the trickery he comes in today at a price!!

[TheOracle]

Belmont Race #8: 10/5/17


:8: Life In Shambles 8-1

2nd off the claim for Asmussen, Ortiz gets the ride. Draws outside and gets plenty of speed to heat the pace.

He's a lock to win it for sure

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #8:


:7: Tasteful 8-1


Owns a very consistent record speed figure wise. Trainer is good with first time in a route.

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #5:


:2: King Of Spades 8-1

Has some of the better speed figures at this distance, Rosario gets back on.

[jay68802]

Belmont Race 8:


:5: Blacktype 8-1

On the bounce back, Rosario (again:bang:) in the saddle, when this horse gets good, he is good.

[Ocala Mike]

Going with :11:, SPRING QUALITY on connections.

[Ocala Mike]

Belmont Race 8:


:5: Blacktype 8-1

On the bounce back, Rosario (again:bang:) in the saddle, when this horse gets good, he is good.


Great pick! Mine filled out the super at a big price.

[jay68802]

Belmont Race 8:


:5: Blacktype 8-1

On the bounce back, Rosario (again:bang:) in the saddle, when this horse gets good, he is good.

Thanks Mike, a win that pays $12.80 and a $67.00 Exacta.

[jay68802]

Fort Erie Race #8: 10/10/17


:3: Mr. Dancin Man 10-1


Like the running style here, Johnson stays with this horse and drops in class.

[jay68802]

Delaware Race #6: 10/11/17


:9: Nerve Line 10-1

Got some decent trainer and jockey %'s here. Toss the last race due to a face plant out of the gate. The race before shows a speed figure at the distance and in a higher class that is within 1 point of tops in the field.

[Ocala Mike]

Keeneland Race 5 - :5:, GOING OUT.

Regally bred homebred, good connections. Only question for me is the off track/dirt.

[jay68802]

Keeneland Race 5 - :5:, GOING OUT.

Regally bred homebred, good connections. Only question for me is the off track/dirt.

:):ThmbUp:

[Ocala Mike]

Hardly a longshot, though, at $8.60. I'll take it.

[jay68802]

Beelmont Race #6:


:4: O Captainmycaptian

4 works since he was last seen at Saratoga. Last two races have been the same, rank early and a fade. In a sprint today so his early rankness becomes a asset, sits on or just off the lead.

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #6: 10/12/17


O Captainmycaptian 20-1

4 works since he was last seen at Saratoga. Last two races have been the same, rank early and a fade. In a sprint today so his early rankness becomes a asset, sits on or just off the lead.

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #6: 10/12/17


:4: O Captainmycaptian 20-1

4 works since he was last seen at Saratoga. Last two races have been the same, rank early and a fade. In a sprint today so his early rankness becomes a asset, sits on or just off the lead.

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #6: 10/13/17


:8: Sicilia Sal 20-1


Maiden to maiden claiming, gets blinkers for the first time. Has 2 works since his last race.

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #4: 10/14/17


:1: Pray For Bourbon 15-1

The switch to turf helped, and a nice workout 13 days ago. Like the extra 1/2 furlong and 6 E types in the race sets up his late running style. The odds put him on top along with the :5: and :9:.

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #2: 10/15/17

:4: China Rider 10-1

In last race finished a neck behind the morning line favorite. Second off the layoff seems to be when this trainer hits. Franco has been the pilot for this girls best efforts and is back on today. A mid to upper 80's speed figure looks strong in this race and has proven ability to reach those numbers.

[Ocala Mike]

Serling's got the:4: in that race right on top - will kill the price. Good luck!

[Ocala Mike]

Keep them coming, Jay! Caught the double and the exacta with that :4:, and just made a nice score with the:8: in the 7th, Came up with it late, or I would have posted it on here.

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #2: 10/15/17

:4: China Rider 10-1

In last race finished a neck behind the morning line favorite. Second off the layoff seems to be when this trainer hits. Franco has been the pilot for this girls best efforts and is back on today. A mid to upper 80's speed figure looks strong in this race and has proven ability to reach those numbers.

Long weekend, between sponsoring a Homecoming event for my son, a 90th birthday party ( not mine ), and a Husker game that besides the outcome, was just a great party. A $14.40 winner here and keys a very good exacta and tri. Glad you got something of that one Mike.

[jay68802]

Fort Erie Race #5: 10/17/17


:3: Smooth Passage 10-1


Can't say much for the connections here, but if this guy had another trainer, he would not be 10-1. Shows a lot of competitive speed figures and the jockey from his last race stays on. Shortens up in distance and looks to be placed just inside the favorite and can outrun that one in the stretch.

[jay68802]

Fort Erie Race #5: 10/17/17


:3: Smooth Passage 10-1


Can't say much for the connections here, but if this guy had another trainer, he would not be 10-1. Shows a lot of competitive speed figures and the jockey from his last race stays on. Shortens up in distance and looks to be placed just inside the favorite and can outrun that one in the stretch.

Scratched.

[jay68802]

Parx Race #9: 10/17/17


:4: Coupella 10-1

Pretty straight forward here, catch me if you can.

[jay68802]

Parx Race #9: 10/17/17


:4: Coupella 10-1

Pretty straight forward here, catch me if you can.

Seconds is not what I am looking for, but once in a while, when you handicap a race, you get lucky. I figured this horse would go to the lead and 3 others did. Usually that means throw away your ticket, however he got by 2 others and finished second. Paid 7.5-1 in the place hole and was part of a $311.00 exacta, not to bad. Just proves in this game you can be both right and wrong at the same time.

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #8: 10/18/17


:7: Third Son 15-1


Has produced his best races off a layoff. The 2nd back speed figure fits nicely in this group. Rosario gets on with a sudden streak of fast works for a trainer that seems not to work his horses fast.

[Ocala Mike]

Belmont Race 6, :8: is a Graham Motion firster by To Honor and Serve. Motion 0/17 according to the program - that can't last.

[Ocala Mike]

Ran 3rd at a big price - missed the tri! Damn!

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #7: 10/19/17


:7: Andalusite 10-1


Shipper from Parx last race looks good against this group. Running style fits the surface and distance. Juarez is very good with the running style also. Since Parx cancelled all turf races the move here and the class drop make sense.

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #7: 10/20/17


:6: Bolita Boyz 12-1


I think this race could get out of hand early. The :3:,:4:, and :5: all like to GO. None of them have finished that well as of late. Gets a little class relief and trainer is a plus.

[TheOracle]

Belmont Race #7: 10/20/17


:6: Bolita Boyz 12-1


I think this race could get out of hand early. The :3:,:4:, and :5: all like to GO. None of them have finished that well as of late. Gets a little class relief and trainer is a plus.

Hey Jay

You might be on to something I took a look at L Rice's Morning Line Favorites when less than 3-1 on the Dirt in Claiming races

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/l rice clmrslssthronebeldrt.jpg

Her horses have won at a high percentage but lately they have been 0 for their last 3

This might be the race to score a longshot with the #6 Bolita Boyz

Let's see what happens!!!

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #7: 10/20/17


:6: Bolita Boyz 12-1


I think this race could get out of hand early. The :3:,:4:, and :5: all like to GO. None of them have finished that well as of late. Gets a little class relief and trainer is a plus.

A $14.40 win mutual and a $53.50 exacta, we will take it.

[Ocala Mike]

Well done! This thread is where the live horses come out to play!

Had the exacta, and the horse made the P/4 price (I didn't play).

[Afleet]

Inagoodway Race 5 Remington-going in the gate now

[Afleet]

Inagoodway Race 5 Remington-going in the gate now

Wire to wire

[jay68802]

Like 2 today

Belmont Race 4:

:7: Ancient Secret 8-1

Like the old 2 sprints to a route angle, with Ortiz up and a guy named Brown as the trainer.


Belmont Race #6:


:6: Bourbonfuhrme 30-1

I think this guy figured it out in his last race. First time against winners is a drawback, but tracked a solid pace and did some real running in the stretch in his Maiden victory. And 30-1 really gets my attention.

[Ocala Mike]

Belmont Race 9, #:9: SPECIAL TRIP.

Saez rides for Abreu, a high percentage trainer in MdSp's. Second-timer should relish the added distance in an admittedly tough race. Demand good odds.

[Ocala Mike]

Bet way down and ran 2nd to the fave. Easy $25 exacta.

[jay68802]

Bet way down and ran 2nd to the fave. Easy $25 exacta.

:ThmbUp:

Will never here me complaining about a exacta like that.

[jay68802]

Laurel Race #6: 10/23/17


:6: Lead By Example 12-1


Comes off a break showing 3 works. The drop in class should help.

[jay68802]

Laurel Race #6: 10/23/17


:6: Lead By Example 12-1


Comes off a break showing 3 works. The drop in class should help.

This is in race #7

[jay68802]

Parx Race #7: 10/24/17


:9: Fara's Kid 20-1


Trainer does well with horses off a break, and puts his go to rider on. Class drop should help, and has run 4 speed figures this year that can win this race.

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #4:


:7: Old Florida 10-1


MSW to Md Clm, speed figure in debut fits. Needs some help up front to pull this off, or just might help himself and press the pace on his own.

[Ocala Mike]

Liked that one, too, Jay. No go for Proctor after being well bet.

We will try this one in the finale.:14: THE MOMENT IS NOW.

In off the AE's for Weaver, and Jose was scheduled to ride a horse I liked who scratched. Second-time starter, drops from MdSp, and must overcome a horrid post.

[TheOracle]

Hey Jay
There are only 6 Morning Lines less than 3-1 on today's card at Belmont!!!

If you can get past these there should be some nice prices today!!!
1st race
#7 Ormolu Lu (KY)

2nd race
#4
Set the Trappe (KY)

6th race
#7
Mo Shopping (KY)

7th race
#7
Off Limits (IRE)

8th race
#3 Miss Sky Warrior (KY)

10th race
#6 War Chest (KY)

Brown's horse in the 7th will be tough and Diodoro's horse in the 2nd will also be tough but the rest might get upset today!!!

[jay68802]

Belmont Race #9: 10/28/17


:8: Beasley 20-1


A bullet work and has ran well in 5 of 6 races. Catches a lot of speed here and sets up for his running style.

[jay68802]

Laurel Park Race #6:


:11: Put It Forward 10-1 Trainer is solid, and jockey knows how to ride in this situation. Try to steel one on the front here.

[jay68802]

Parx Race #9: 10/31/17


:8: T R Crew 8-1

Coming off a short break and all 3 wins have been off a break. Speed figures are solid so is the trainer and jockey. Has won one the front and from off the pace, so I look for him to be off the pace here and able to run down suspect speed.

[jay68802]

:bang::bang: 4 of the last 5 posts here have been bet down to favorite.:rant:

[jay68802]

Churchill Downs Race #6:


:1: Heat It Up Rich 8-1

Saw a high pace in last and "bid". Gets a more comfortable pace here and the "bid" part continues to a win.

[woodtoo]

Churchill Downs Race #6:


:1: Heat It Up Rich 8-1

Saw a high pace in last and "bid". Gets a more comfortable pace here and the "bid" part continues to a win.

Not at 2-1

small wager on 10

[jay68802]

Not at 2-1

small wager on 10

Yep, win bet out the window because of odds.(again):bang:

down to small exacta play with the :7:,:9:, and :10:

[woodtoo]

good luck:ThmbUp:

[jay68802]

Churchill Race #7:


:7: North Princess 15-1

Jockey has won on this horse before. Will be close to the pace in this race and any improvement figure wise can put her on top here.

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #7:


:2: Special Jo 6-1


Drops in class and can take this group a long way on the front.

[jay68802]

Laurel Park Race #7:


:8: Oldfashioned Club 10-1


Second time with Ness. Should be near the front.

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #8:


:4: Flora Dora 8-1


Trainer and jockey are not going to impress anyone. Gets the needed class relief and has the speed figures to win this. Two bullet works and then a maintenance work, makes her look ready. Catches a lot of speed in this race and can run them down at the wire.

[FakeNameChanged]

Aqueduct Race #8:


:4: Flora Dora 8-1


Trainer and jockey are not going to impress anyone. Gets the needed class relief and has the speed figures to win this. Two bullet works and then a maintenance work, makes her look ready. Catches a lot of speed in this race and can run them down at the wire.
I'll see your :4: and raise you a :3: Frank's Folly 12-1 ML. As to your :4: a Graded Stakes runner, can't doubt her back class, but <5-1 seems more likely imo.

[jay68802]

I'll see your :4: and raise you a :3: Frank's Folly 12-1 ML. As to your :4: a Graded Stakes runner, can't doubt her back class, but <5-1 seems more likely imo.

Fine be that way, I will raise you a exacta box, :4: / :3:.;)

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Interesting little race that just doesn't seem to have much scary speed in it.

:2::7: are obvious to me as the :2: has really never ran a bad race and the :7: gets back to a 1 turn dirt mile where she ran her best race ever 3 back.

:4: doesn't look like she will be anywhere close to her 8/1 ML and has been kicking down the barn on the work tab.

So outside of stating the obvious I might be a little interested in the :8: or :9:. I think the :8: will end up "overlayed" at 6/1 or better and if she can better her lone 1 turn mile effort 2 back, she could be tough. :9: with Rudy and Irad at 10/1 or better should always be a little interesting but her last 2 are likely too ugly to take seriously with these.

[jay68802]

The problem I see after 7 races, is that there does not seem to be any late runners making up ground at all.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

The problem I see after 7 races, is that there does not seem to be any late runners making up ground at all.

And that is my real concern in this one. Unless the :3::5: or :6: can make the :2: really work, it could be a walk.

[jay68802]

Playing with all, but concentrating on the :3::5::6::7:

[jay68802]

Spend $100.00 on the race and make $3.70 by hitting a $1.00 super as a back up bet.:rolleyes:

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #9:


:9: Run For Boston

Has ran speed figures that can win this race. Get a decent turf jockey and in what looks like a race with no speed in it, there is plenty of early pace.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Aqueduct Race #9:


:9: Run For Boston

Has ran speed figures that can win this race. Get a decent turf jockey and in what looks like a race with no speed in it, there is plenty of early pace.

I hate Aquedump.

You got something better?

[jay68802]

I hate Aquedump.

You got something better?

A cold beer.:)

Race #9 Churchill

:5: Strive 15-1 Shipper from Remington and Von Hemel

:8: Sweet Tapper 10-1 Beat the :5: in a Grade 3.

[jay68802]

A cold beer.:)

Race #9 Churchill

:5: Strive 15-1 Shipper from Remington and Von Hemel

:8: Sweet Tapper 10-1 Beat the :5: in a Grade 3.

Race #7 Churchill


:9: Principe Guilherme 10-1 First time starter for Asmussen with Santana up.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Ha.

I'll take the cold beer. :ThmbUp:

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #3:


:2: Runaway Lute 10-1

The trainer says let's put blinkers on. Has plenty of early gas already and with the addition of blinkers might not stop running till Sunday.

[jay68802]

Ha.

I'll take the cold beer. :ThmbUp:

And by the way, if we ever run into each other here in Nebraska, I will buy you one.

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #6:


:7: Great Stuff 8-1


In for $ for the first time since 16. Will excuse the last, poor break behind a slow pace. Before that, twice within a length at a slightly higher class level. Outside draw and a stalk and pounce running style gives this guy a clear run.

[TheOracle]

Aqueduct Race #6:


:7: Great Stuff 8-1


In for $ for the first time since 16. Will excuse the last, poor break behind a slow pace. Before that, twice within a length at a slightly higher class level. Outside draw and a stalk and pounce running style gives this guy a clear run.

Hey Jay

Great pick

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #6:


:7: Great Stuff 8-1


In for $ for the first time since 16. Will excuse the last, poor break behind a slow pace. Before that, twice within a length at a slightly higher class level. Outside draw and a stalk and pounce running style gives this guy a clear run.

Pays $16.00 $7.10 $4.40 and keys a $30.00 exacta, $125.24 tri, $403.50 super, a $44.50 double and a $166.50 pick 3. Profitable, and that's what we like.

[FakeNameChanged]

Pays $16.00 $7.10 $4.40 and keys a $30.00 exacta, $125.24 tri, $403.50 super, a $44.50 double and a $166.50 pick 3. Profitable, and that's what we like.
Nice work when it all comes together!

How my day almost went. I picked a 20-1 shot(Nick's Posse) in first race at Parx. He was so far back, 16 lengths at 2f and 4f that he literally wasn't in the picture. At 6f he was still 9 lengths back when he started to run. He closed to lose by a nose to a 21-1 horse. So close but still a loser. Returned 18.00 for 2nd, but the 3 exactas I keyed with him nada. After that my focus was crap, made some mental errors in 2nd and 4th, watched the 3rd and 5th and called it a day.

[TheOracle]

Aqueduct Race #6:


:7: Great Stuff 8-1


In for $ for the first time since 16. Will excuse the last, poor break behind a slow pace. Before that, twice within a length at a slightly higher class level. Outside draw and a stalk and pounce running style gives this guy a clear run.

Hey Jay,

You might be on to something Turf might be the way to go as far as longshots at Aqueduct!!!

So far this season, Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have only won 5 of their last 21 attempts on the Turf since November!!!

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2240985#post2240985

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/m l favsontrfaqu.jpg

This to me is where you are getting the best bang for your buck going against them at Aqueduct!!!

Morning Lines less than 3-1 have been consistently getting beat in this situation and I imagine the same is true for the actual Favorites on the Turf!!!

They have been 0 for their last 9 on the Turf since November 9th, 2017!!!

[jay68802]

Parx Race #7:


:9: Mystery Train 10-1

Get Haddock on a early runner, trainer does well in this situation. The steady drop in class is a concern, but looks to be lone front runner in this group. If the speed is holding today....

[jay68802]

Parx Race #8:


:4: Bombshell 12-1

Trainer and jockey are good. Has to let the :6: and :7: kill each other off and then make a run.

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #7:


:3: May Be A Diamond 10-1


Finished 4 lengths off at this level in last race, after a lay off. Trainer does well second off and sticks with the jockey. Can't help but notice the big improvement, in a second off a lay off race, this guy showed in breaking his maiden. Bullet work after last says that he is ready for the improvement again.

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #9:


:7: She's Cookin 8-1

Jockey and trainer have good %'s here and showing some nice works. MSW to Md Clm is in play and stretching out for he first time. Not much improvement needed here to put her on top.

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #8:


:6: Sandy Bell 15-1

Just trying to steal one on the front here.

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #5:


:4: Tiffanys Freud 15-1


Have a pretty unreliable group. Did not finish her last rast tha well.The two efforts before that can win this.

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #5:


:4: Tiffanys Freud 15-1


Have a pretty unreliable group. Did not finish her last rast tha well.The two efforts before that can win this.

Scratch

Race #6:


:11: Wicked Trick 10-1

Trainer does not win much because of moves like the last race and putting this guy in a grade 3. Should be a lot more competitive here with Franco up and a solid pace by the :1:,:4:,:7:.

[TheOracle]

M E Casse’s horses have been giving a return of 34% since 2014 per $2 win place and show wager on the Turf at Aqueduct!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/m e cassetrfaqu.jpg

Casse has this in the 8th race
#10 Monster Bea

This one might be one to watch today at Aqueduct!!!

[TheOracle]

Casse came through for us today with #10 Monster Bea even though it was a 2nd place finish it paid $24.50 across the board not too shabby for hitting the board!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/m e casseaqutrf.jpg

You are now getting a 50% return on Casse's horses on the Turf at Aqueduct!!!

Let's keep an eye on Casse's barn on the Turf for the remainder of the Aqueduct season and in April for next year!!!

[TheOracle]

Hey Jay

Long shots will have to get past most of these today at Aqueduct it looks very chalky today as there are many with Morning Lines less than 3-1


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 11-19-2017 1st race 1 Shidoshi (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs D A Cannizzo 5/2# Dirt
2 11-19-2017 1st race 1A Love Your Buttons (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs D A Cannizzo 5/2# Dirt
3 11-19-2017 1st race 4 Fooch (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs W A Ward 9/5# Dirt
4 11-19-2017 2nd race 3 Conquest Bigluck E (KY) Claiming One Mile L Rice 2/1# Dirt
5 11-19-2017 2nd race 7 Arbitrator (KY) Claiming One Mile C Clement 5/2# Dirt
6 11-19-2017 3rd race 5 Lokis Vengeance (NY) Stakes Seven Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Dirt
7 11-19-2017 3rd race 6 Gold for the King (NY) Stakes Seven Furlongs C Baker 2/1# Dirt
8 11-19-2017 4th race 8 Fast Boat (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs C Clement 8/5# Turf
9 11-19-2017 4th race 3 Blinded Vision (KY) (MTO) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs G P Gullo 5/2# Turf
10 11-19-2017 5th race 1 For Greater Glory (KY) Claiming One Mile D Jacobson 9/5# Dirt
11 11-19-2017 5th race 1A Raagheb (KY) Claiming One Mile D Jacobson 9/5# Dirt
12 11-19-2017 5th race 5 Mills (KY) Claiming One Mile B N Levine 5/2# Dirt
13 11-19-2017 6th race 2 Flash Trading (KY) (MTO) Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles J P Terranova II 5/2# Turf
14 11-19-2017 6th race 2B Halloween Horror (KY) (MTO) Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles J P Terranova II 5/2# Turf
15 11-19-2017 7th race 4 Church Social (KY) Allowance One Mile C R McGaughey III 2/1# Turf
16 11-19-2017 7th race 8 Just Got Out (ON) (MTO) Allowance One Mile L Rice 5/2# Turf
17 11-19-2017 8th race 3 Favorable Outcome (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs C C Brown 6/5# Dirt
18 11-19-2017 9th race 10 Culture Carrier (KY) Maiden Special Weight One And Three Eighth Miles C C Brown 7/5# Turf


Let’s see what happens after scratches!!!

[jay68802]

Parx Race #7:


:9: Take the Stromboli 12-1

I know, he is 1 for 23 lifetime, and he likes to run 2nd and 3rd. The good news is that all of them are 1 for lifetime. Trainer is acceptable, and this guy improved after a bad run, had a little break, and the last workout is strong in this field. The jockey has been on before and has got a average speed figure of 82 on this guy, and that figure can win in this cheap field.

[jay68802]

Parx Race #7:


:5: Imasuperstar 10-1

Is the trainer solid? Check. Can the jockey ride a horse with this running style? Check. I think the trainer made a mistake with this guy in his last. This guy is a bred to be a sprinter, and the cut back to 5 1/2 today is perfect. Hope the track plays like yesterday and the speed on the inside holds.

[FakeNameChanged]

Parx Race #7:


:5: Imasuperstar 10-1

Is the trainer solid? Check. Can the jockey ride a horse with this running style? Check. I think the trainer made a mistake with this guy in his last. This guy is a bred to be a sprinter, and the cut back to 5 1/2 today is perfect. Hope the track plays like yesterday and the speed on the inside holds.
Very tough race IMO. Englehart is a known long shot trainer (by me). The :3: Popularity is a former Baffert horse who won 14 months ago, but Irad comes down to ride him for a good trainer. The :9: Giant Trick should also be contesting the pace with your pick and :6: Love Rules.

[Bennie]

Looks like a tough race to me too. The :2: horse has improved since blinks came off 2 races back and can sit dream trip inside just off the pace. The :3: horse off for over a year, bet but not chalk first time for Baffert but Servis/Ortiz combo makes you worried. The :5: horse off for 8 months, best races seem to be off track and has been beaten by the :8: twice in the past. The :6: horse is 2nd blinks on,showed improved speed and strong workout makes me think this horse will be sent early. The :9: horse reclaimed by Serey just ran 10 days ago, almost equaled his top number. Will either regress slightly or Serey is striking while the iron is hot by running back on short rest. Can sit outside stalking. Personally I would not bet this race unless there is a scratch of the :6: or :9: and then use the :2: horse as my key first and second with who ever is left between the :3::6::9:. just my opinion.

[jay68802]

Good points from both of you, so just to play devils advocate.

:2: First time against winners is the drawback.

:3: Off over a year and first time against winners, two strikes

:6: Is scary just because he will be up front, but best races have been against claimers or state breds

:8: The most dangerous because of running style, has not faced claimers and seems to be on a good race, bad race, good race pattern. Second choice behind the :5: because of lower morning line odds.

:9: Off 120 days then a hard fought race with a unusually high speed figure, and back in 10 days. Big bounce candidate.

[Bennie]

All good reasons to pass such a race. Saw that on TVG/NJbets site their #1 pick is :8:. Just to throw another monkey wrench into the mix.

[jay68802]

But why "pass" a race where as a handicapper, I have narrowed a race down to a 10-1 and a 8-1? Of course the choice to play will be made when you see what the public has bet and then make your choice. But at this moment this race remains an attractive possibility.

[FakeNameChanged]

But why "pass" a race where as a handicapper, I have narrowed a race down to a 10-1 and a 8-1? Of course the choice to play will be made when you see what the public has bet and then make your choice. But at this moment this race remains an attractive possibility.You musta hammered :5: down to 3-1. GL

[jay68802]

You musta hammered :5: down to 3-1. GL

Did not "hammer" because of odds, and saved some money. But not liking the favorite helped a lot. Good news is that the tri and super were easy to hit by liking the :5:, and look at the race discussion we had, the top 4 horses in that race are all mentioned. Wheeling the :5: and using the :2::6::8::9: makes $'s.

How I played the race:

WPS: $20/$20/$10 :5: Total: $50.00

$5 Exacta Box: :5: / :2::6::8::9: Total: $40.00

$1 Tri Wheel: :5: / :2::6::8::9: Total: $36.00

$.50 Super Wheel::5: / :2::6::8::9:Total: $48.00

Total Bet: $174.00

Total Returned: $979.55

If the odds on the :5: would have been 6-1, It would have been a different story and a lot more $ wasted.

[FakeNameChanged]

Did not "hammer" because of odds, and saved some money. But not liking the favorite helped a lot. Good news is that the tri and super were easy to hit by liking the :5:, and look at the race discussion we had, the top 4 horses in that race are all mentioned. Wheeling the :5: and using the :2::6::8::9: makes $'s.

How I played the race:

WPS: $20/$20/$10 :5: Total: $50.00

$5 Exacta Box: :5: / :2::6::8::9: Total: $40.00

$1 Tri Wheel: :5: / :2::6::8::9: Total: $36.00

$.50 Super Wheel::5: / :2::6::8::9:Total: $48.00

Total Bet: $174.00

Total Returned: $979.55

If the odds on the :5: would have been 6-1, It would have been a different story and a lot more $ wasted.
Great betting on your part. I always feel a little "dirty" when my horse loses and I still win thru decent bets or just dumb luck.

[jay68802]

Great betting on your part. I always feel a little "dirty" when my horse loses and I still win thru decent bets or just dumb luck.

I always feel that it is mostly dumb luck.

[jay68802]

Got 2 for today:
Aqueduct Race #6:


:1: True Charm 20-1

This one depends on scratches and track condition. If they run on the turf and its rated as good or soft then she is a play. Best figure is on a good track at this distance. "Carried speed further" in last and if the :6: is out of the picture, could be very dangerous.

Aqueduct Race #8:


:3: Altar Boy 8-1

Claimed back in last start by Maker is a good sign. Has been involved in some really good races lately. No speed in this race and that is a advantage for this guy, with his best figures have been in slower paced races.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

True Charm runs in the 6th race tomorrow.

As for the 8th today, it is being run on the main track and the :2::5::7::8: have scratched making this a 4 horse field. :puke:

[TheOracle]

Got 2 for today:
Aqueduct Race #6:


:1: True Charm 20-1

This one depends on scratches and track condition. If they run on the turf and its rated as good or soft then she is a play. Best figure is on a good track at this distance. "Carried speed further" in last and if the :6: is out of the picture, could be very dangerous.

Aqueduct Race #8:


:3: Altar Boy 8-1

Claimed back in last start by Maker is a good sign. Has been involved in some really good races lately. No speed in this race and that is a advantage for this guy, with his best figures have been in slower paced races.

Hey Jay


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 11-22-2017 1st race 2 Souperfast (KY) Claiming One Mile S M Asmussen 8/5# Turf
2 11-22-2017 1st race 6 Lewis Vale (ON) Claiming One Mile D Jacobson 5/2# Turf
3 11-22-2017 2nd race 1 Ouro Verde (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs D G Donk 5/2# Dirt
4 11-22-2017 2nd race 6 Seam (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs R Handal 1/1# Dirt
5 11-22-2017 3rd race 2 Littlemissbusiness (FL) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs M E Friedman 2/1# Dirt
6 11-22-2017 4th race 3 Tap Tap Taparoo (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 5/2# Turf
7 11-22-2017 5th race 1 Scarf It Down (KY) Starter Allowance One Mile J C Englehart 6/5# Dirt
8 11-22-2017 5th race 5 Shadow Rider (KY) Starter Allowance One Mile J T Toscano Jr. 2/1# Dirt
9 11-22-2017 6th race 1 Pauseforthecause (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile K P McLaughlin 5/2# Turf
10 11-22-2017 6th race 3 Purely Lucky (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile B H Cox 2/1# Turf
11 11-22-2017 7th race 3 One More Round (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile S Klesaris 5/2# Dirt
12 11-22-2017 7th race 7 Alpha Team (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile D Jacobson 2/1# Dirt
13 11-22-2017 8th race 2 Not in Charge (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And Three Sixteenth Miles A E Goldberg 5/2# Turf
14 11-22-2017 8th race 4 Shahroze (IRE) Allowance Optional Claiming One And Three Sixteenth Miles H G Motion 2/1# Turf


Here are all of today’s entries with Morning Lines less than 3-1 I haven’t looked at scratches yet

If you can get by these today you will get some big prices

The good news is Favorites have been struggling on the Turf at Aqueduct if they keep the 6th and 8th races on the Turf you might have a shot at some nice prices!!!

[jay68802]

True Charm runs in the 6th race tomorrow.

As for the 8th today, it is being run on the main track and the :2::5::7::8: have scratched making this a 4 horse field. :puke:

Thanks LDH, my bad on True Charm. The amount of scratches had the effect of lowering odds on Alter Boy, who won but only paid $6.30. I think it was Randy Giles who wrote "sometimes a horse runs it race, sometimes the race runs the horse". Same thing happened today to bettors in this race, sometimes the odds dictate how you have to bet the race. At about 5 mins to post Alter Boy was 5-2 and with the short field, met my minimum odds to place a win bet. At post time the odds dropped to 2-1 and I canceled my bet. The short field, odds, and lack betting options ended up killing a winning pick, at least for me.

[jay68802]

[QUOTE=jay68802;2244110]Got 2 for today:
Aqueduct Race #6:


:1: True Charm 20-1

This one depends on scratches and track condition. If they run on the turf and its rated as good or soft then she is a play. Best figure is on a good track at this distance. "Carried speed further" in last and if the :6: is out of the picture, could be very dangerous.


Aqueduct Race #5:

:6: Fielding Gold 12-1

4 yr old coming off a break, with two nice works, and has the back class and figures that win this. The favorite is going to be the :1:, and you have to ask why the horse is being dropped in class?

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #8:


:6: Dalarna 8-1 Still not getting respect after running good in 6 of 7 lifetime starts. Has handled the steps up the class ladder very nicely. Coming in with 3 in a row, I will bet he can do 4 in a row.

[Ocala Mike]

You hit the Timeform (David Aragona) horse - a nice pick that I like, but we won't get the 8/1. Good luck today!

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #10


:7: Unexplained 12-1


Midwest Thoroughbreds and Assmussen. I think this is by far the best closer here. With at least 3 early runners siged up, gets a good set up and can be there at the wire.

[Ocala Mike]

I will hook yours up with mine, :3: ACOUSTIC - pretty much the same analysis. Wide open race.

[Mulerider]

I will hook yours up with mine, :3: ACOUSTIC - pretty much the same analysis. Wide open race.

i had the :3: in a contest. Boxed in, nowhere to go.

[Ocala Mike]

Yeah, horror trip - totally blocked early stretch inside and couldn't recover.

Tab to follow. Jay's horse made a nice run. Winner an ex-Motion trainee; I stopped following. MY BAD!

[jay68802]

2 today
Aqueduct Race #5:

:10: Full Of Joy 12-1

To break maiden she closed into a very slow pace. Last race is competitive in this field and if she improves off that she gets the win.

Aqueduct Race #9:

:11: Silly Numbers 20-1

At her best distance and gets blinkers for the first time. Get a trainer and jockey that are at about 15 percent in this situation.

[FakeNameChanged]

2 today
Aqueduct Race #5:

:10: Full Of Joy 12-1

To break maiden she closed into a very slow pace. Last race is competitive in this field and if she improves off that she gets the win.

Aqueduct Race #9:

:11: Silly Numbers 20-1

At her best distance and gets blinkers for the first time. Get a trainer and jockey that are at about 15 percent in this situation.

Race 5 Aq-Like your pick at 12-1. My LS pick at 20-1 would be :5: Miss Aja Brown.

Race 9-Aq-The two "Heels" fillies look formidable in this race. I'll go with :10: Nile Princess at 15-1. Good Luck.

[jay68802]

Parx Race #2:


:8: T J Goodie 15-1

Drops in class and looks to be improving. Trainer does well and looks to be a lot of speed in here. Can sit in the clear about 5 off the lead.

[FakeNameChanged]

Parx Race #2:


:8: T J Goodie 15-1

Drops in class and looks to be improving. Trainer does well and looks to be a lot of speed in here. Can sit in the clear about 5 off the lead.
Excellent winner at 8-1! you even predicted how it would be run.

[jay68802]

Excellent winner at 8-1! you even predicted how it would be run.

:jump::jump:

[FakeNameChanged]

Excellent winner at 8-1! you even predicted how it would be run.

:jump::jump:

Parx Race #2:



:8: T J Goodie 15-1

Drops in class and looks to be improving. Trainer does well and looks to be a lot of speed in here. Can sit in the clear about 5 off the lead.
Jay, what happened to speed at Parx in first several races? They must have dumped a "few" tons of sand on the track.

[jay68802]

Been like this for a while now, about a week ago the speed was holding, and since then it has played fair to a slight closing bias.

[jay68802]

Parx Race #2:


:8: T J Goodie 15-1

Drops in class and looks to be improving. Trainer does well and looks to be a lot of speed in here. Can sit in the clear about 5 off the lead.

Pays: $19.20 $8.60 $3.80, keys a $92.60 exacta and a $117.40 tri.

[jay68802]

Parx Race #7:


:4: Master Yank 8-1

Last 2 have been good races. Catches a field full of speed here and is the lone closer in the bunch. Gets a positive jockey change and can bounce back to the race two back, a win at this level.

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #9:


:1: Town Fair 8-1


The horses that come from off the pace here are not that scary. Might be under pressure on the front but is the the best finisher of the speed types. The other choice is to sit in the :5:'s hip pocket and stalk and pounce.

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #6:


:4: Wicked Trick 8-1

Back to trying Rosario again. I like this guy on young horses who have shown a off the pace running style. Trainer for some reason (:confused:) put him in a Grade 3 for his second lifetime start. Maybe he thinks the horse is talented? Bid and hung in the last, will get a good rail trip for most of this race, and no other horse here has shown much late interest.

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #9:


:5: Anything Pazible 8-1

Had a bit of trouble getting on to the correct lead in the stretch of last, then made up ground on the likely second choice. Flips post position on that one, and this time gets the better trip.

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #8:


:4: Held Accountable 8-1


Two yr old that has done nothing wrong. Has shown the ability to be on the pace, and to rate. Class test today for sure, but has shown toughness in all three races. And a bonus, 4 works since the last including a old school mile work as the latest.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Aqueduct Race #8:


:4: Held Accountable 8-1


Two yr old that has done nothing wrong. Has shown the ability to be on the pace, and to rate. Class test today for sure, but has shown toughness in all three races. And a bonus, 4 works since the last including a old school mile work as the latest.

Singling the :6: in that race. Only concern is the :3:

[jay68802]

Singling the :6: in that race. Only concern is the :3:

Good luck, as always I will wait to see the odds before making a bet. Will probably play a small double to the :9: in the 9th. UCF just scored on a play action pass to the tight end on a seem route, sounds a little like Osborne there.:)

[jay68802]

Laurel Race #3:


:8: Birdies Honor 8-1

Not much to figure out here. Wire to wire is the plan.


Parx Race #5


:12: Cute As A Button 12-1


Drop in class and a positive jockey change. Looks to be a lone speed type in here but that one is suspect.

Parx Race #8:


:5: Tazkeya 10-1

Second off with a trainer that is good with that. Gets a good set up and post position for her running style.

[jay68802]

Parx Race #6:


:3: Bourbon Honey 20-1

Again (:bang:) just going to try to steel this one on the front.

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #8:


:7: Beach Access 15-1

2 yr old gets Garcia for her second time against Maiden Claimers. Liked this angle in California with the same jockey, so give it a try here. Have a feeling he was the jock in the latest two works and look for her to be more involved early.

[jay68802]

Fairgrounds Race #8:

:11: Fancy Madelyn 9-2


Looked at a lot of races and could only come up with this one. 5 for 6 on the Fairgrounds turf and 9 for 14 at the distance. Drops in class and steady work's since the last. Normally I am at 8-1 or higher so the post time odds here are critical.

[MONEY]

Fairgrounds Race #8:

:11: Fancy Madelyn 9-2


Looked at a lot of races and could only come up with this one. 5 for 6 on the Fairgrounds turf and 9 for 14 at the distance. Drops in class and steady work's since the last. Normally I am at 8-1 or higher so the post time odds here are critical.
Scratched, It's been raining in Houston for a few days and when it rains here it usually rains in New Orleans.

[jay68802]

Thanks Money, we will try it again.

Gulfstream Race #8:


:8: Guidonia 8-1

Big win angle in play here. Over came a little trouble in that race also. Might have learned a little about this girl in the last. There is some suspect speed in this race and think they will try to win from the rear here again.

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #6:


:5: Candy Promises 8-1

Drops in to claiming competition for the first time. Trainer does well in the claiming races, and this guy has the early speed to be involved early. Last work is fast and out of the gate, looks ready to run.

[FakeNameChanged]

Aqueduct Race #6:


:5: Candy Promises 8-1

Drops in to claiming competition for the first time. Trainer does well in the claiming races, and this guy has the early speed to be involved early. Last work is fast and out of the gate, looks ready to run.
I like this pick. And 10 works since his last race including (4) 5f's and (1) 6f. Trainer has kept him fit. Looks like one of the more competitive races on this card.

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #2:


:2: Run For James 15-1

Set a lifetime best 2 back, then flopped as the favorite in the last. Can bounce back today, and is the inside speed. Would like this guy a lot more if the race is off the turf and the :5: scrathes, but I also like his breeding for the turf.


Aqueduct Race #4:

:9: Hot Possebility 15-1


First time starter for a trainer that is not the best in this situation. However gets Garcia (I like this guy on young horses) and he will try to put this girl close if not on the lead. And oh yeah, I do see a nice gate work that was 6th best of 131, not to bad.

[jay68802]

Woodbine Race #12


:4: Over Sensual 20-1


Jumps from Maiden Claiming to MSW because he is carrying a winning figure at this distance and on this surface. Adds blinkers and gets a top jockey here so 20-1 is not realistic.

[jay68802]

Remington Race #5:


:5: Quality Rocket 20-1

Might need a little of a speed bias to get this one home, but at the odds makes sense. Gets Luis Quinonez and the slight cut back in distance could improve enough to win this.

Mahoning Valley Race #7:


:10: Midnight Dance 12-1

Jockey wins at 20% with frontrunners, trainer wins at the same rate with route to sprint runners. At 12-1 it becomes a bet just because of the %'s.

[jay68802]

Remington Race #6:


:6: Spanish Avenue 8-1

First time starter for W. B. Calhoun who puts Iram Diego up. Solid last work and catches a weak feild.


Remington Race #9:


:4: L.A. Freeway 10-1


There is some drawbacks with this one but is improving. Has proven ability to run a speed figure that can win this, and looks to be able to be close early.

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #8:


:2: King Power 6-1


Again, not to complicated here. Catch me if you can.

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #8:


:3: Mineralogy 10-1


Best races so far have been in sprints on a fast track. Speed figure improved in last, and was followed by a short break with steady works. 3 yr old can still improve and his figures in fast track sprints are already competitive.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Aqueduct Race #8:


:3: Mineralogy 10-1


Best races so far have been in sprints on a fast track. Speed figure improved in last, and was followed by a short break with steady works. 3 yr old can still improve and his figures in fast track sprints are already competitive.

Dang Jay, this is one ugly field. :D

:3: makes some sense as his best races have come at Aqueduct in colder weather along with Manny aboard.

Whoever gets agressive here and gets the lead could easily wire this ragtag field. I can certainly bet against the :4:. :ThmbUp:

[jay68802]

Dang Jay, this is one ugly field. :D

:3: makes some sense as his best races have come at Aqueduct in colder weather along with Manny aboard.

Whoever gets agressive here and gets the lead could easily wire this ragtag field. I can certainly bet against the :4:. :ThmbUp:

Almost as ugly as I am.;)

[jay68802]

And speaking of ugly, 5-2...:puke:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

And speaking of ugly, 5-2...:puke:

Ha.

:1a: at 4/1 is a little interesting and the :8: is getting some play. Tough to take the 2 outside horses today.

[jay68802]

Tough month so far, posted 16 horses and 7 have become unplayable because of odds. The :8: in that race, 3 yr old who showed a sudden jump in the speed figure, a slight decline was expected, but was good enough to win here.

[jay68802]

Laurel Park Race #5:


:4: Sharon's Thunder 12-1

Trainer does well with shippers and brings last jockey with him. Shows improving figures and could find himself on the lead here.

Gulfstream Race #7:


:2: Psycho Girl 20-1


Second highest last race speed figure, behind the favorite. Improved on the stretch out the first time and gets a little more distance again.

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #6:


:6: Shanghai Schwartz 15-1

Steady first run at 5f, was wide and the second choice in that race. The break and stretch out are favorable. Beyer says that young horses should improve 1.5 points a month, which gives this guy a projected speed figure of 84. That can win this race.


Gulfstream Race #10:


:8: One Go All Go 20-1

Will not wait long to see this one, should be on the front from the start. Has some back figures that can win this race, and the cut back in distance is a plus.


Aqueduct Race #4:

:5: Niko Strong 12-1


First time starter with a trainer angle. Strong last work out and bred to be a sprinter.

[jay68802]

Laurel Race #7:


:5: Private Drama 10-1


First time starter gets Bracho in debut. Trainer only has three starts but has done well. Two of her best works were out of the gate and catches a sub par group.

[dansan]

think you have wrong race

[jay68802]

think you have wrong race

You are correct, it is race #5.

[jay68802]

Mahoning Valley Race #4:


:3: Freekson 20-1

A suddenly improved speed figure in a young horse catches my attention. Closed to break maiden then a game third while on the lead in last.

Race #5:


:2: If You Believe 6-1

First off the claim for a good trainer. Catches 3 suspect speed types. Can track a contested pace and pick up the leaders in the stretch.

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #5:


:3: Raining Lemons 8-1


Forgive the last because of the yielding turf, and you have a horse that usually runs her race. Get Velazquez and a trainer that is good off a break. If you do not like this one...

:7: Analista 12-1


Get a solid trainer and jockey. Steadily improving figures and the addition of blinkers might just put this one in position to wire the field, or first run on suspect speed.

Gulfstream Race #6:


:6: Coleman Rocky 12-1


Caught a off track coming off a break and disappointed as the favorite at this level. Had no chance in last and catches 2 favorites with declining figures. Third start since break, gets a good jockey, and might have the best closing kick in the group.

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #2:


:7: Wegotoldyougotsold 15-1


Rough start to career, rail draw and a bump from the outside, swung 3 wide into stretch and jockey decided to try to squeeze down the rail. Moves to the outside today so should be able to get a cleaner trip.


Gulfstream Race #9:


:12: Storming My Way 20-1


Got some back class, solid jokey and trainer, also. Distance and surface is a concern here but the breeding says it should not be a problem. Repeat the last figure and a win is in reach.

[PressThePace]

Aqueduct Race #2:


:7: Wegotoldyougotsold 15-1


Rough start to career, rail draw and a bump from the outside, swung 3 wide into stretch and jockey decided to try to squeeze down the rail. Moves to the outside today so should be able to get a cleaner trip.


Gulfstream Race #9:


:12: Storming My Way 20-1


Got some back class, solid jokey and trainer, also. Distance and surface is a concern here but the breeding says it should not be a problem. Repeat the last figure and a win is in reach.

The Aqueduct race should be Race #8...I like the :7: as well. Should be the right price. Good luck!

[jay68802]

The Aqueduct race should be Race #8...I like the :7: as well. Should be the right price. Good luck!

Thanks for pointing out my error, I would hate to bet the wrong race with a $21.00 winner.;)

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #3:


:4: She's So Fine 8-1


5 wins in the last 6 starts, and Ortiz in the saddle. I don't see 8-1 on this one at all, and would be shocked at those odds. One of those times where if you do see 6 to 8 -1, it would make you wonder if this is just a prep for the 2nd try. But if at 4 to 5 -1 should be taken seriously.

[TheOracle]

Hey Jay

You only have to worry about these few who are already Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 12-23-2017 1st race 3 Honor and Pleasure (NY) Claiming Seven Furlongs T Albertrani 2/1# Dirt
2 12-23-2017 3rd race 7 Lady Suebee (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs C C Brown 4/5# Dirt
3 12-23-2017 4th race 4 Blewitt (NY) Allowance One Mile T A Pletcher 4/5# Dirt
4 12-23-2017 5th race 4 Harlan Punch (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile D Jacobson 5/2# Dirt
5 12-23-2017 5th race 7 Gift Box (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile C C Brown 2/1# Dirt
6 12-23-2017 7th race 7 Threefiveindia (KY) Stakes Six Furlongs C C Brown 2/1# Dirt


They represent only 6.8% of the entire card at Aqueduct before scratches!!!

So I suspect there will be some big prices today at Aqueduct!!!

C C Brown’s Morning Line Favorites have been struggling since November!!!

Whatever strategy you use for long shots might work well today!!!

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #2:


:9: Big Auk 20-1


Improved in last and gets to move up in class and is put in with state breds. Jockey sticks and a little more improvement gets it done.


Race #8:


:8: Alex The Terror 12-1


Claimed and exploded for Pletcher, now gets a class test. Pletcher gets a repeat performance and maybe the win.

[PressThePace]

Taking a big shot in GP 9th, with :6: Sunshine Treasure currently on the board at 52/1!!!

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #2:


:2: Jubilant 10-1

Shows steady improvement from the first race. Trainer shows confidence by raising her in class. Has been working solid during break and should like the added distance.


Race #4:


:4: Jay's Way 12-1

With a name like this I have to play him. Gets Tyler Gaffalione in third race since a break and he looks to me to be the primary speed.

[MONEY]

Gulfstream Race #2:


:2: Jubilant 10-1

Shows steady improvement from the first race. Trainer shows confidence by raising her in class. Has been working solid during break and should like the added distance.


Race #4:


:4: Jay's Way 12-1

With a name like this I have to play him. Gets Tyler Gaffalione in third race since a break and he looks to me to be the primary speed.

:2: Jubilant 10-1, is in Race #3.

Good Luck

[jay68802]

Thanks Money, I need to stop posting while under the influence.;) The :4: Jay's Way was a winner paying $12.40 and keyed an respectable $29.80 exacta.

[jay68802]

Delta Downs Race #9:


:4: Gold Label 5-1


Highest last race speed rating and a solid trainer. Last seen in May and with the added maturity might be to tough to handle for this group.

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #6:


:10: Court Central 12-1


Get one of the better turf riders and has a solid trainer. Distance looks right and the speed here is suspect to say the least. 2nd off the lay off and might be able to run this group down in the stretch.


Race #8:


:2: Express Jet 12-1


I count 6 runners here that have to be close to or on the lead. If the track is allowing the late runners to make up ground, could get a great set up.

[Ocala Mike]

:2: is scratched in the 8th.

My longshot in the 6th is the :5: - shows improving pattern, and I am way ahead betting ARCH horses on the grass all year.

[jay68802]

:2: is scratched in the 8th.

My longshot in the 6th is the :5: - shows improving pattern, and I am way ahead betting ARCH horses on the grass all year.

I keep looking for first time turf horses by Flatter, good luck.

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #7:


:6: H Man 10-1



Claimed back by a good trainer. Looking to go wire to wire here.

Race #8:


:6: Salty Slew 12-1

Second off the claim and MSW to Maiden Claiming.

[TheOracle]

Hey Jay

I don't know if Aqueduct will race today as there is snow in the tri-state area

If they do run, now would be the time to do your longshot handicapping as there are only 9 horses with Morning Lines less than 3-1

That makes up only 13.6% of the entire card !!!


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 12-30-2017 1st race 4 Hail (KY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile W I Mott 1/1# Dirt
2 12-30-2017 2nd race 4 Competitiveness (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs G P Gullo 2/1# Dirt
3 12-30-2017 3rd race 2 Classy Class (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile K P McLaughlin 7/5# Dirt
4 12-30-2017 3rd race 3 Vulcans Forge (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile T A Pletcher 8/5# Dirt
5 12-30-2017 4th race 7 I Miss My Father (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs L Rice 6/5# Dirt
6 12-30-2017 5th race 1 Holland Road (FL) Starter Allowance Six And One Half Furlongs M Dilger 5/2# Dirt
7 12-30-2017 5th race 5 Special Story (NY) Starter Allowance Six And One Half Furlongs R Diodoro 2/1# Dirt
8 12-30-2017 6th race 8 My Victoria Rose (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six And One Half Furlongs J C Englehart 5/2# Dirt
9 12-30-2017 7th race 2 Jewel Can Disco (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs G P Gullo 5/2# Dirt

This is before scratches!!!

[jay68802]

Thanks Oracle, lets take a shot at two of them.

Aqueduct Race #5:


:7: Sir Alfred 8-1


Coming off a long break with a work out tab starting back in November. Has ran fast enough to beat this group before and has won off a long layoff before.

Aqueduct Race #6:


:5: My Lightnin Strike 15-1


Improved in second start of career and moves to the dirt today. The last race was on the turf but those opening fractions look very fast. Employ the same up front tactics today and could break the Maiden.

Do have a horse on the watch list running today in the 9th. :5: Ghost Block, my notes say ran well with very bad start. See four class droppers in the race and that means it will be a tough race or he could be catching a very weak feild. Do not know what to do here.

[jay68802]

Last day of the year, go big or go home.

Gulfstream Race #6:


:7: Galileo's Affair 15-1


Hot trainer, good jockey. Highest last race speed figure, a lot to like if you trust the surface change.


Race #8:


:11: Shades Of Night 20-1


Has been steadily improving since the start. Trainer does well off a break and the 5f works have been getting faster.

Race #8

:10: Shes Dynomite 15-1

The juice man and Ortiz...enough said.

Race #11

:7: Little Toe 20-1


Second off a break, sprint to route, and a solid pilot. Needs to improve and the breeding is there.

[Redboard]

Last day of the year, go big or go home.

Gulfstream Race #6:
:7: Galileo's Affair 15-1
Hot trainer, good jockey. Highest last race speed figure, a lot to like if you trust the surface change.

Race #8:
:11: Shades Of Night 20-1
Has been steadily improving since the start. Trainer does well off a break and the 5f works have been getting faster.

Race #8
:10: Shes Dynomite 15-1
The juice man and Ortiz...enough said.

Race #11
:7: Little Toe 20-1

Second off a break, sprint to route, and a solid pilot. Needs to improve and the breeding is there.

Your best finish was Shades Of Night who finished a game 6th. It looked like he was live there for a bit, but didn't finish very well. 55-1 too.

Keep firing Jay!

[jay68802]

Your best finish was Shades Of Night who finished a game 6th. It looked like he was live there for a bit, but didn't finish very well. 55-1 too.

Keep firing Jay!

Wide and on a solid pace, horse to watch for again.

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #6:


:7: Miz Mayhem 8-1


Trainer does ok in this spot and gets Zayas. Three yr old is stretching out for the first time, and is the speed of the race.


Gulfstream Race #8:


:11: Fabriana 8-1


Trainer wins a lot in this situation and Gaffalione is on board. Sharp last work and the breeding for the surface and distance is solid.

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #7:


:3: Diplomatic Shaft 6-1

Steadily improving work tab and a drop in class. Has the speed to get a good early position.


Race #10


:9: Mai Ty One On 5-1


Second off for Cibelle and Lezcano gets on. Came with a run in first effort off a break, and has a work since. Improvement off that effort can get him a win today.

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #1:


:7: Fox Rox 10-1


Got to think the last was a needed race. In for a tag today and if you ignore the last race you have some solid speed figures for this group.


Race #4:


:6: Starship Rocky 10-1


I see a high figure 2 back, but that was in the slop. Given a short break and reinforced that figure on this surface, and notice he missed the break in that one.

Race #10:


:4: Bal Harbour 9-2


Highest last race figure, Pletcher and Johnny V. Second off the lay off and just keeps improving.

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #8:


:4: I'm Pretty Strong 10-1


Does not look to be a strong field and trainer is solid. Lezcano is the first to give her a try. Solid works leading up to debut.

[Ocala Mike]

I'll use yours with Motion's :8:, 2TS, FTL.

[jay68802]

Laurel Race #7:


:5: Power Of Snunner 10-1


8 yr old is a tough one. Race off the break was a sprint and not a bad run. Can't help but think that was the prep for this one. Running style fits the track and notice most of the speed is drawn inside of this one.


Race #8:


:1: El Areeb 15-1


The Withers runner is doing what I always thought he should do. Sprint. Got to know the track in last in a 7f affair, and cuts back to 6 today. 4 works since last and is back with McCarthy.

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #2:


:2: Frosty The Dragon 8-1

All the picks today are the same type of horse. Catch me if you can.

Race #6

:8: Billy The Bull 9-2

Race #8:

:7: Mr Joshua 6-1

Race #10

:5: Prince of England 8-1

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #2:


:2: Frosty The Dragon 8-1

All the picks today are the same type of horse. Catch me if you can.

Race #6

:8: Billy The Bull 9-2

Race #8:

:7: Mr Joshua 6-1

Race #10

:5: Prince of England 8-1

One scratch and 2 of three were winners. Not bad but there was one thing missing in the winners, price.

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #4:


:9: Cordele 6-1


Ton of speed in this one, outside draw and has tactical speed. Class is a question, but if you judge class by wins, she is 3 for 3 at this distance on the turf.


Race #7:


:8: Lucky Switch 10-1


Solid trainer and jockey team up here. Off the pace runner tries the turf for the first time. Race sets up well for the running style. Drop in class might get her over the top.

[TheOracle]

Hey Jay,


There are only 10 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 today at Aqueduct which makes up only 14.9% of the entire card

RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 01-11-2018 1st race 2 Holland Park (KY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Eighth Miles K P McLaughlin 4/5# Dirt
2 01-11-2018 2nd race 2 All Clear (KY) Starter Allowance Six Furlongs D Gargan 7/5# Dirt
3 01-11-2018 3rd race 1 Frost Wise (NY) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles M Dilger 8/5# Dirt
4 01-11-2018 3rd race 4 Frostie Anne (NY) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles R R Rodriguez 2/1# Dirt
5 01-11-2018 3rd race 5 Riot Worthy (NY) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles C Baker 5/2# Dirt
6 01-11-2018 4th race 5 Stan the Man (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs J P Terranova II 2/1# Dirt
7 01-11-2018 4th race 7 Preservationist (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs J A Jerkens 6/5# Dirt
8 01-11-2018 5th race 6 Maddizaskar (KY) Claiming One Mile J T Toscano Jr. 9/5# Dirt
9 01-11-2018 6th race 3 Northern (FL) Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs W A Ward 2/1# Dirt
10 01-11-2018 8th race 1 Westwood (KY) Allowance Six And One Half Furlongs K P McLaughlin 9/5# Dirt
So I would venture a guess and say that win prices should be good today for any long shots that you come up with for the card!!!

I'm leaning on Gargan, Rodriguez, and J P (Terra Squad) Terranova for today's chalk!!!

[TheOracle]

Hey Jay,


There are only 10 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 today at Aqueduct which makes up only 14.9% of the entire card

RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 01-11-2018 1st race 2 Holland Park (KY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Eighth Miles K P McLaughlin 4/5# Dirt
2 01-11-2018 2nd race 2 All Clear (KY) Starter Allowance Six Furlongs D Gargan 7/5# Dirt
3 01-11-2018 3rd race 1 Frost Wise (NY) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles M Dilger 8/5# Dirt
4 01-11-2018 3rd race 4 Frostie Anne (NY) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles R R Rodriguez 2/1# Dirt
5 01-11-2018 3rd race 5 Riot Worthy (NY) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles C Baker 5/2# Dirt
6 01-11-2018 4th race 5 Stan the Man (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs J P Terranova II 2/1# Dirt
7 01-11-2018 4th race 7 Preservationist (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs J A Jerkens 6/5# Dirt
8 01-11-2018 5th race 6 Maddizaskar (KY) Claiming One Mile J T Toscano Jr. 9/5# Dirt
9 01-11-2018 6th race 3 Northern (FL) Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs W A Ward 2/1# Dirt
10 01-11-2018 8th race 1 Westwood (KY) Allowance Six And One Half Furlongs K P McLaughlin 9/5# Dirt
So I would venture a guess and say that win prices should be good today for any long shots that you come up with for the card!!!

I'm leaning on Gargan, Rodriguez, and J P (Terra Squad) Terranova for today's chalk!!!

The percentages were before scratches

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #8:


:7: One Direction Song 15-1


Try to steel this one. Looks like this race has some speed in it. Rail is out for this one and I like the speed on the turf when the rail is out. If you think a speed duel is in order in this race, look again. The other speed won its last race, on Wednesday.

Race #9:


:7: Diddley 12-1


Dirt to turf is hard to judge, but the running style helps. Gets a hot jockey and the outside post puts this guy in a ideal stalking situation.

Aqueduct Race #7:


:4: Dream Fever 6-1


Second off for a trainer that hits good here. Need the lead type can go wire to wire here.


Race #9:


:11: Queen Apollo 8-1


Beat by the favorite in last while wide and the other got a much better trip. Even with the outside draw, has less competition for the lead here and turns the table.

[TheOracle]

Gulfstream Race #8:


:7: One Direction Song 15-1


Try to steel this one. Looks like this race has some speed in it. Rail is out for this one and I like the speed on the turf when the rail is out. If you think a speed duel is in order in this race, look again. The other speed won its last race, on Wednesday.

Race #9:


:7: Diddley 12-1


Dirt to turf is hard to judge, but the running style helps. Gets a hot jockey and the outside post puts this guy in a ideal stalking situation.

Aqueduct Race #7:


:4: Dream Fever 6-1


Second off for a trainer that hits good here. Need the lead type can go wire to wire here.


Race #9:


:11: Queen Apollo 8-1


Beat by the favorite in last while wide and the other got a much better trip. Even with the outside draw, has less competition for the lead here and turns the table.

Hey Jay

There are quite a number of Morning Line Favorites today at Aqueduct



RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 01-12-2018 1st race 5 Hembree (KY) Starter Allowance One Mile R R Rodriguez 2/1# Dirt
2 01-12-2018 1st race 6 Vilma (KY) Starter Allowance One Mile L Rice 9/5# Dirt
3 01-12-2018 2nd race 1 Cocktail Countess (KY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs L Rice 2/1# Dirt
4 01-12-2018 2nd race 8 Solitary Gem (KY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs L Gyarmati 7/5# Dirt
5 01-12-2018 3rd race 1 Cotton Candy Cutie (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Eighth Miles R R Rodriguez 6/5# Dirt
6 01-12-2018 3rd race 4 Connie A (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Eighth Miles T A Pletcher 5/2# Dirt
7 01-12-2018 4th race 5 War Eagles Return (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs C J Englehart 2/1# Dirt
8 01-12-2018 4th race 7 Afleet Martini (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs J C Englehart 5/2# Dirt
9 01-12-2018 5th race 1 Bluegrass Prevails (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 5/2# Dirt
10 01-12-2018 6th race 1 Impazible Creek (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs J C Kimmel 6/5# Dirt
11 01-12-2018 6th race 1A Impazible Woman (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs J C Kimmel 6/5# Dirt
12 01-12-2018 7th race 5 Acquainted (KY) Starter Allowance Seven Furlongs L Rice 8/5# Dirt
13 01-12-2018 8th race 4 Holiday Disguise (NY) Stakes Seven Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Dirt
14 01-12-2018 8th race 6 Quezon (NY) Stakes Seven Furlongs R Ribaudo 7/5# Dirt


However, they only make up 18.9% of the entire card before scratches

So I think your longshots have a chance today provided the card can carry at least 60+ entrants

If the total card goes down toward the mid to low 50s things might get chalky we’ll see!!!

[TheOracle]

I've been tracking D S Lalman on the wet stuff for a while at Aqueduct

He had a $69 number in 2014

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/d s lalmanwetaqu.jpg

Let's see if he can hit the board with this one in the 7th

7th race
#7 Blushing Justine

Let's see if he can sneak this one in and hit the board at a price!!!

[TheOracle]

Hey Jay
There are only 9 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 today at Aqueduct

Which makes up only 14% of the entire card

RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 01-13-2018 1st race 2 Praetereo (KY) Claiming One And One Fourth Miles R R Rodriguez 5/2# Dirt
2 01-13-2018 2nd race 5 Belleville Spring (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs G Weaver 8/5# Dirt
3 01-13-2018 3rd race 2 T R Crew (PA) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile D G Donk 2/1# Dirt
4 01-13-2018 3rd race 3 Pioneer Spirit (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile B H Cox 8/5# Dirt
5 01-13-2018 4th race 6 Tammany Giant (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs J T Toscano Jr. 5/2# Dirt
6 01-13-2018 5th race 4 My Boy Tate (NY) Stakes Seven Furlongs M Nevin 5/2# Dirt
7 01-13-2018 6th race 2 Polar City (KY) Claiming One Mile J C Englehart 5/2# Dirt
8 01-13-2018 7th race 8 Shimmering Moon (NY) Allowance Six And One Half Furlongs M Nevin 5/2# Dirt
9 01-13-2018 8th race 7 Firenze Fire (FL) Stakes One Mile J Servis 3/5# Dirt


So your longshots should do well today!!!

I’m leaning towards Rodriguez and Nevin’s horses less than 3-1 in the Morning Line today!!!

[jay68802]

Thanks Oracle

Aqueduct Race #7:


:1: Bow Town Cat 15-1


Last time this one was second off the layoff at this distance, she recorded the highest figure in the race.

[jay68802]

Aqueduct Race #3:


:3: My Rose of Savanna 12-1

Claimed in first start of life after finishing within a length of a 2 time winner. Moved across the country and caught a sloppy track in second start. Gets a fast track today and can return to the stalk and pounce of first race.


:7: Status Asthmaticus 15-1


Tried to wire a higher class in first start of life. Gets some class relief for second start and can improve off the first try.

[TheOracle]

Hey Jay

There are only 6 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 today at Aqueduct


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 01-15-2018 1st race 3 Sand Shark (KY) Claiming One Mile R R Rodriguez 1/1# Dirt
2 01-15-2018 1st race 6 Three Eighty Eight (NY) Claiming One Mile L Rice 7/5# Dirt
3 01-15-2018 2nd race 3 Micozzi (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile L Rice 5/2# Dirt
4 01-15-2018 2nd race 7 Silberado (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile R Handal 8/5# Dirt
5 01-15-2018 3rd race 5 Empire Line (NY) Stakes One Mile G Weaver 2/1# Dirt
6 01-15-2018 3rd race 7 Jaye Jaye (NY) Stakes One Mile W I Mott 5/2# Dirt


Rice and Handal’s horses have been struggling lately. If you can get by the 3rd race today prices should be decent!!!

Let’s see what happens!!!

[jay68802]

Looked at the card and if I were to go with a favorite, why not go with Jaye Jaye in the 3rd. Have a good day.

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #5:


:3: Smarter 8-1


Trainer has had a small number of starters ready. Has more speed than the 2 to his inside, and both the 5 and 8 hook. Rides the short way around the track and that might be the difference here.

[TheOracle]

Looked at the card and if I were to go with a favorite, why not go with Jaye Jaye in the 3rd. Have a good day.


Hey Jay,

I don't know if you made money today at Aqueduct as there were 3 winners out of the 6 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/m l aqujan.jpg

From the 4th race on there were only 2 win prices less than double digits maybe the holidays are the days for longshots at Aqueduct!!!

[bpiets]

Hey Jay,

I don't know if you made money today at Aqueduct as there were 3 winners out of the 6 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/m l aqujan.jpg

From the 4th race on there were only 2 win prices less than double digits maybe the holidays are the days for longshots at Aqueduct!!!

divine miss grey...lol...:)..a 1-4-8- box perhaps...lol

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #8:


:9: Heart Astray 6-1


Outside draw gives Ortiz a clear trip and a choice to get the lead or sit just off the pace and wait. 5 of 6 in the money at the distance and is the only runner to record upper 80's speed figures twice.


Race #10:


:5: Inside Trip 6-1


Confident move up the class ladder for second start of her life. See a few sprinters stretching out here and can come with a late run.

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #6:


:2: Mal Guapo 6-1

16 time winner has 1 thought on his mind, get to the lead fast and stay there. The 2 back race was with a bad break, while wide and the last was in a duel. Gets the lead here and with only the favorite chasing, can take this one a long way on the front.

[TheOracle]

Hey Jay

Here are today’s Morning Line Favorites at Aqueduct that are less than 3-1

This makes up 15% of the entire card before scratches!!!


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 01-18-2018 1st race 6 Holland Park (KY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Eighth Miles K P McLaughlin 4/5# Dirt
2 01-18-2018 2nd race 5 Bluegrass Prevails (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 5/2# Dirt
3 01-18-2018 3rd race 2 Frost Wise (NY) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles M Dilger 9/5# Dirt
4 01-18-2018 3rd race 3 Frostie Anne (NY) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles R R Rodriguez 5/2# Dirt
5 01-18-2018 3rd race 4 Riot Worthy (NY) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles C Baker 2/1# Dirt
6 01-18-2018 4th race 8 Split Time (NY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile L Rice 1/1# Dirt
7 01-18-2018 5th race 1 War Eagles Return (KY) Claiming Seven Furlongs C J Englehart 9/5# Dirt
8 01-18-2018 5th race 1A Saratoga Heater (NY) Claiming Seven Furlongs R Diodoro 9/5# Dirt
9 01-18-2018 6th race 8 Gio dOro (NY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile B H Cox 7/5# Dirt
10 01-18-2018 7th race 8 Looking Ready (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs B N Levine 5/2# Dirt
11 01-18-2018 9th race 8 Big Thicket (NY) Maiden Claiming One Mile L Rice 5/2# Dirt


I’m leaning towards Rodriguez, Diodoro and Cox
Rice will have to prove herself today!!!

[jay68802]

Aqueduct RAce #6:


:3: My Lightnin Strike 15-1

Last race is deceptively good. Was on the turf and after hitting the gate, dueled between horses before fading. Back on the dirt today where the up front running style will transfer nicely.

[fiznow]

Turfway Park R6 Forego Stakes
#2 Gilded Lily ML 20-1 Filly against the boys
3 for 3 at distance, best bris speed at distance, 4 for 6 at TP, 4 for 7 at AW, Jockey 32% wins, trainer 33% wins, P best running style for this distance at TP.
Good luck! :headbanger:

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #10:


:8: Surprise Wedding 10-1

Going to need some help up front to get this one home. 3 need the lead types make that possible. Looks like this horse was being pointed for this race.

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #9:


:8: Arch Daddy 10-1

Broke the maiden last out and takes on winners now. Breeding suggests that the added distance will only help.

Race #10:


:7: Fiore 10-1


She's coming off a big win and is quick out of the gate. Gets to sit in the :3:'s hip pocket and can out finish that one.

[TheOracle]

Hey Jay,

Your longshots at Aqueduct will have to get by these today


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 01-25-2018 1st race 5 Bobby On Fleek (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 2/1# Dirt
2 01-25-2018 1st race 6 Curtis (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs G P Gullo 5/2# Dirt
3 01-25-2018 2nd race 2 Bon Heir (FL) Claiming One Mile L Rice 2/1# Dirt
4 01-25-2018 2nd race 6 Thirstforthecup (KY) Claiming One Mile T A Pletcher 5/2# Dirt
5 01-25-2018 3rd race 3 Wealth Effect (KY) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles C C Brown 5/2# Dirt
6 01-25-2018 3rd race 5 Hail (KY) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles W I Mott 8/5# Dirt
7 01-25-2018 4th race 1 Free Kitty (KY) Maiden Claiming Seven Furlongs L Rice 9/5# Dirt
8 01-25-2018 4th race 5 Lemondrop Lollipop (ON) Maiden Claiming Seven Furlongs D G Donk 2/1# Dirt
9 01-25-2018 6th race 5 Timeless Beauty (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile G C Contessa 9/5# Dirt
10 01-25-2018 6th race 6 Blissful Breeze (FL) Maiden Claiming One Mile M E Casse 5/2# Dirt
11 01-25-2018 7th race 4 Altar Boy (KY) Claiming One Mile R R Rodriguez 5/2# Dirt
12 01-25-2018 8th race 1 Lady Bergen (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs J Servis 2/1# Dirt
13 01-25-2018 8th race 7 Andesine (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs C J Englehart 5/2# Dirt
14 01-25-2018 9th race 7 Jacqueline D (NY) Maiden Claiming Seven Furlongs D L Schettino 5/2# Dirt
They make up 21% of the entire card before scratches

I'm leaning toward Rice and Rodriguez today!!!

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #5:


:4: Dudacity 8-1


She ran a respectable first race, and looks like the move to the turf at a mile was planned. Gaffalione gets the nod here and catches a lot of suspect speed.


Race #8:


:6: Boom Boom Boom 6-1


Have a lot of respect for the trainer, and Johnny V gets up. Gets a more comfortable pace here and is second off the layoff.

[TheOracle]

Hey Jay,

Your longshots at Aqueduct will have to get by these today


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 01-25-2018 1st race 5 Bobby On Fleek (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 2/1# Dirt
2 01-25-2018 1st race 6 Curtis (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs G P Gullo 5/2# Dirt
3 01-25-2018 2nd race 2 Bon Heir (FL) Claiming One Mile L Rice 2/1# Dirt
4 01-25-2018 2nd race 6 Thirstforthecup (KY) Claiming One Mile T A Pletcher 5/2# Dirt
5 01-25-2018 3rd race 3 Wealth Effect (KY) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles C C Brown 5/2# Dirt
6 01-25-2018 3rd race 5 Hail (KY) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles W I Mott 8/5# Dirt
7 01-25-2018 4th race 1 Free Kitty (KY) Maiden Claiming Seven Furlongs L Rice 9/5# Dirt
8 01-25-2018 4th race 5 Lemondrop Lollipop (ON) Maiden Claiming Seven Furlongs D G Donk 2/1# Dirt
9 01-25-2018 6th race 5 Timeless Beauty (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile G C Contessa 9/5# Dirt
10 01-25-2018 6th race 6 Blissful Breeze (FL) Maiden Claiming One Mile M E Casse 5/2# Dirt
11 01-25-2018 7th race 4 Altar Boy (KY) Claiming One Mile R R Rodriguez 5/2# Dirt
12 01-25-2018 8th race 1 Lady Bergen (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs J Servis 2/1# Dirt
13 01-25-2018 8th race 7 Andesine (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs C J Englehart 5/2# Dirt
14 01-25-2018 9th race 7 Jacqueline D (NY) Maiden Claiming Seven Furlongs D L Schettino 5/2# Dirt
They make up 21% of the entire card before scratches

I'm leaning toward Rice and Rodriguez today!!!

Today was a blood bath for the Chalk at Aqueduct as there was only 1 winner from this group and only 6 hit the board!!!

Only 3 win prices under $8 today!!!

Rice and Rodriguez’s Morning Lines less than 3-1 were completely off the board today!!!

Today was the day for longshots!!!

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #4:


:6: Miss Stalwart 8-1


Claimed in last and is back quickly. Gets Saez and has a .33% win percentage.

[bpiets]

gulfstream race 6 post 7...kabang 8/1/ ml...may run...:p

[Ocala Mike]

Where ya been, bpiets? I like KABANG a lot - got a nice double going.

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #11:


:4: Miss Hollywood 10-1


In the last turf try was run down late by the :9: (7-2) in a sprint at Belmont. Broke poorly in the last and never was involved. Needs a better break today and if she gets it can compete here.

[jay68802]

Gulfstream 1/31

Race #2: :5: Al Khor 12-1

Race #5: :10: Little Plumber 6-1

Race #7: :4: Miss Lamborghini 8-1

Race #10: :9: Billy The Bull 12-1


Easy to see the plan on these 4, catch me if you can. Try to steal some today.

[jay68802]

Gulfstream 2/1


Race #10: :10: Terry's Charm 8-1

First off for the juice man.

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #9:


:7: English Dancer 12-1

I see this one getting a very good trip here. Should sit 2nd for most of the race and out finish the other speed here. Best 2 races have been at this distance.

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Race #6:


:6: Electro 10-1

Maker, Gaffalione and lone speed.

Race #8:


:5: Ventina 6-1


32% off the claim for the trainer and a jockey that is winning 24% of his sprint mounts.


Race #10:

:8: Wild Good 8-1

Ortiz, all wins at this distance, and a class drop.

[jay68802]

Gulfstream Races 3-11:


:7: $2.00 WPS

[bpiets]

Gulfstream Races 3-11:


:7: $2.00 WPS

--------------------------------------
r3.....5 t.p
r4.....3 u.s.
r5.....6 p.p.
r6.....4 irwin
r7.....7 a.c.
r8.....3 r.t.
r9.....8 s. hi s.
r10...6 s.a.
r11.....the 7 or 4....lol...good luck...:cool: