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View Full Version : Bizar-o predictions -- Freehold Style


Jess Hawsen Arown
09-21-2017, 09:49 AM
For you TVG players, you might want to think again if you use TRACKMAN selections as a guide. Last week, TRACKMAN selected Mickey Goldin to win two races on the same racing card at Freehold. It has been years since Goldin won a race at Freehold, and his in-the-money- percentage would make Bartolo Colon's batting average look like Ty Cobb.

Now there have also been some bizar-o morning lines this year at Freehold, but one today drove me to this post. In the third race, MATZA MAN with Steve Gastel is 3-2 morning line. Not just favorite -- but 3-2?!?!!

Now to be fair, Gastelu has won races at Freehold. Last week against tougher competition, MATZA MAN made his first start in the Gastelu stable and was beaten 20 lengths after trying to move going to the half trotting in 2:03. He was 38-1. Today he is in softer. This is a fall down field, and IF... he returns to his race four races back in a different barn with a different driver or IF they all fall down...well, MATZA MAN shows not breaks, he will light up the tote board.

As opposed to the Goldin horses of last week, this horse is not impossible. But 3-2 m/l usually means under even money by post time. Not a chance. This is a pick-4 race -- with a carryover -- so rest assured, if he wins, I did not hit the pick-4 (unless there is a late driver change). I will be using the probable favorite(s), HE'S IN THE GAME and/or INTEROVER.

Maybe this insane morning line was purposely done to generate interest in the carryover pick-4, or maybe our track handicapper made this selection because of Rosh Hashanah. (MATZA MAN, get it?)

There is an opposite absurdity in the last leg of the pick-4, ROCK THE OFFICIAL at 12-1. My guess is that RTO will be the race time favorite. If not, close to it. So maybe these bizar-o odds are an attempt to induce pick-4 players.

Sea Biscuit
09-21-2017, 11:48 AM
For you TVG players, you might want to think again if you use TRACKMAN selections as a guide.


Jess I think you are confusing the morning lines to be the trackmans selections to win the race. They are not. They are merely the trackman's predictions how the the public will wager on a particular race.

Taking an excerpt from an article published 17 years ago in the American Quarter Horse Racing Journal by Ed Burgart

"As the official handicapper and morning line maker at Los Alamitos, I often have to explain the two responsibilities. At one of my handicapping seminars, a fan pointed out a difference in the two jobs when he said, "You have the No. 3 horse selected to win, but you have made the No. 8 horse the 2-1 morning line choice."

The morning line odds don't reflect my preferred selections in a race. My goal as the morning line maker is to predict how the public will wager on a particular race."



The link to the articledoesn't work anymore but if you want I can copy and paste the whole article in your inbox

Ray2000
09-21-2017, 11:54 AM
I was actually going to play the Pick4 CO race, but guess what.

The monopoly Program provider ( Trackmaster ) has NO Race 1 in the data file. See below.

Looks like they found another way to beat me....:mad:

MONEY
09-21-2017, 12:16 PM
I was actually going to play the Pick4 CO race, but guess what.

The monopoly Program provider ( Trackmaster ) has NO Race 1 in the data file. See below.

Looks like they found another way to beat me....:mad:
The race listed as race #2 is race #1, The race listed as race #3 is race #2, and
on & on.

Ray2000
09-21-2017, 12:21 PM
The race listed as race #2 is race #1, The race listed as race #3 is race #2, and
on & on.

Yes, but try explaining that to the Robot. :)

Jess Hawsen Arown
09-21-2017, 12:26 PM
Jess I think you are confusing the morning lines to be the trackmans selections to win the race. They are not. They are merely the trackman's predictions how the the public will wager on a particular race.

Taking an excerpt from an article published 17 years ago in the American Quarter Horse Racing Journal by Ed Burgart

"As the official handicapper and morning line maker at Los Alamitos, I often have to explain the two responsibilities. At one of my handicapping seminars, a fan pointed out a difference in the two jobs when he said, "You have the No. 3 horse selected to win, but you have made the No. 8 horse the 2-1 morning line choice."

The morning line odds don't reflect my preferred selections in a race. My goal as the morning line maker is to predict how the public will wager on a particular race."



The link to the articledoesn't work anymore but if you want I can copy and paste the whole article in your inbox

You are right. The TVG Trackman and the Freehold morning line are two separate entities. I meant to provide two separate examples of the bizar-o world of selections and morning line. I guess I confused the issue by putting them in the same post. Additional note: I mistakenly identified the TVG selections as TRACKMAN. They are TRACKMASTER selections. The TRACKMAN selections are on the bottom of the Freehold program

Per Ed Bogart's explanation: Everything he said was accurate. However, I blame the tracks for causing confusion by having the same person make the morning line AND make selections. It flies in the face of integrity.

For example, today's 5th race at Freehold that I mentioned. Maybe the morning line guy has rules that caused him to make ROCK THE OFFICIAL 12-1 morning line. Then maybe after looking at the form, he decides to pick him. Then maybe the horse wins at 5-2. It could all be completely innocent, but it sure smells bad for the players.

Hey, how about a Rosh Hashanah parlay, today. MATZA (matzoh) MAN in the third and MESHWHOGONNA (meshuganah) in the 5th. :D At least MESHWHOGONNA has a legitimate shot.

Jess Hawsen Arown
09-21-2017, 12:31 PM
I was actually going to play the Pick4 CO race, but guess what.

The monopoly Program provider ( Trackmaster ) has NO Race 1 in the data file. See below.

Looks like they found another way to beat me....:mad:

They have the races wrong. Race 2 has the horses from Race 1. I'm guessing they are one race off all the way down. The pick-4 starts with race 2. Verify at the USTA site.

I hope your betting site has it right. :headbanger:

DSB
09-21-2017, 03:13 PM
The odds in the program at Freehold are computer generated.

"TrackMan" selections, which appear at the bottom of the page are simply the four lowest odds.

No human makes either the morning line or the selections.

Freehold hasn't had a bona fide morning line oddsmaker or analyst in more than a decade.

Hope this can end the confusion.

Ray2000
09-21-2017, 03:33 PM
.... Program provider ( Trackmaster ) has NO Race 1 in the data file. ...

I'll post this FYI for TM data users here.

Trackmaster support answered quickly and gave me the reference to the correct Race number.
It's in RACESHR.DBF field RaceOrd. An easy fix.

I've been using TM data for 10+ years and never noticed that DB field

Thanks to Mr Siegel and Greg

Sea Biscuit
09-21-2017, 03:37 PM
The odds in the program at Freehold are computer generated.

"TrackMan" selections, which appear at the bottom of the page are simply the four lowest odds.

No human makes either the morning line or the selections.

Freehold hasn't had a bona fide morning line oddsmaker or analyst in more than a decade.

Hope this can end the confusion.

You are absolutely correct DSB.

Here are some other tracks using the TrackMaster's automated morning line odds.

Dover
Saratoga
Cal Expo
Plainridge
Rosecroft
Bangor
Freehold
Philly
Yonkers
Aces
Springfield
DuQuoin


http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=118160&pp=15&highlight=automated+morning+lines

Jess Hawsen Arown
09-21-2017, 05:41 PM
For you TVG players, you might want to think again if you use TRACKMAN selections as a guide. Last week, TRACKMAN selected Mickey Goldin to win two races on the same racing card at Freehold. It has been years since Goldin won a race at Freehold, and his in-the-money- percentage would make Bartolo Colon's batting average look like Ty Cobb.

Now there have also been some bizar-o morning lines this year at Freehold, but one today drove me to this post. In the third race, MATZA MAN with Steve Gastel is 3-2 morning line. Not just favorite -- but 3-2?!?!!

Now to be fair, Gastelu has won races at Freehold. Last week against tougher competition, MATZA MAN made his first start in the Gastelu stable and was beaten 20 lengths after trying to move going to the half trotting in 2:03. He was 38-1. Today he is in softer. This is a fall down field, and IF... he returns to his race four races back in a different barn with a different driver or IF they all fall down...well, MATZA MAN shows not breaks, he will light up the tote board.

As opposed to the Goldin horses of last week, this horse is not impossible. But 3-2 m/l usually means under even money by post time. Not a chance. This is a pick-4 race -- with a carryover -- so rest assured, if he wins, I did not hit the pick-4 (unless there is a late driver change). I will be using the probable favorite(s), HE'S IN THE GAME and/or INTEROVER.

Maybe this insane morning line was purposely done to generate interest in the carryover pick-4, or maybe our track handicapper made this selection because of Rosh Hashanah. (MATZA MAN, get it?)

There is an opposite absurdity in the last leg of the pick-4, ROCK THE OFFICIAL at 12-1. My guess is that RTO will be the race time favorite. If not, close to it. So maybe these bizar-o odds are an attempt to induce pick-4 players.

I knew the computer used to do the odds. I thought that had changed.

My apologies to the "computer" that generated the 3-2 morning line for MATZA MAN, I think?

Somehow this horse went off at even money (maybe Rosh Hashanah money?). I have no idea why. But exacta players felt cheated when 9-1 JUSTA JERSEY BOY beat 10-1 CIVIC DUTY for a $60 exacta payoff when winners anticipated something significantly higher than $100 while the tri without the even money shot on the board only paid only $147. However, those prices were legitimate if MATZA MAN had gone off the long shot he should have been. No real explanation here.

As anticipated, 12-1 ROCK THE OFFICIAL went off at only 3-1. A well-meant third, but not good enough.

Onward and upward.

jocko699
09-21-2017, 06:59 PM
I knew the computer used to do the odds. I thought that had changed.

My apologies to the "computer" that generated the 3-2 morning line for MATZA MAN, I think?

Somehow this horse went off at even money (maybe Rosh Hashanah money?). I have no idea why. But exacta players felt cheated when 9-1 JUSTA JERSEY BOY beat 10-1 CIVIC DUTY for a $60 exacta payoff when winners anticipated something significantly higher than $100 while the tri without the even money shot on the board only paid only $147. However, those prices were legitimate if MATZA MAN had gone off the long shot he should have been. No real explanation here.

As anticipated, 12-1 ROCK THE OFFICIAL went off at only 3-1. A well-meant third, but not good enough.

Onward and upward.


Very good thread. Thanks to all for the insight.:headbanger:

Sea Biscuit
09-21-2017, 11:45 PM
It will be fun to watch the conspiracy theorists blame and bash the computer (for the poor morning lines) instead of some poor soul at Freehold for a change.


https://image.ibb.co/ms9QJk/computer.jpg (https://imgbb.com/)

:lol::lol::lol: