Way Early

[Dahoss9698]

Was a very impressive debut winner for George Weaver today at Belmont in the 5th. Rosario only really asked him to run for 3/16ths of a mile and he cruised past the leaders.

While I realize odds go up sometimes...he was 11-1 as they were loading the gate. 9-1 going in and 7-1 as they crossed the wire. How smart is that late money?

[betovernetcapper]

I don't know what the pool was, but he only dropped a few points. The connections knew they had a good horse, but for it to go off at 7-1, they probably had some reservations. My guess is the trainer would have bet say $2000 at the track at the last minute (the move to 9-1) & the owner betting a similar amount at an ADW at the same time (the move to 7-1).If that was the scenario, good for them. It takes a lot of work to win out of the box.
There were a few hints. He was gelded prior to his debut. He had the 2nd best pedigree for the distance and had a morning line of 6-1. His last workout was significantly better then his prior two.
Weaver's stats
Debut 14% $1.97 ROI
First route 18% $1.61 ROI
First Turf 11% $.84 ROI
Statebreds 15% $1.27 ROI
Trainer Jockey combo for the last year 50% ROI $1.55 (only 2 races)

I don't doubt the insiders (owner & trainer) bet, but there was enough info out there to consider him a contender.