Pennsylvania Derby

[Afleet]

Pennsylvania Derby 1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | Purse: $1,000,000



1 1 ML 5-1 Timeline J. Castellano 122 Lbs C. Brown L
Hard Spun (http://www.darleyamerica.com/stallions/our-stallions/hard-spun) - Azorina | Empire Maker
2 2 ML 12-1 Outplay J. Velazquez 119 Lbs T. Pletcher L
Bernardini (http://www.darleyamerica.com/stallions/our-stallions/bernardini) - Miss Kate | Storm Cat
3 3 ML 20-1 Watch Me Whip R. Albarado 117 Lbs D. Romans L
Smart Strike - Smooth as Silk | Deputy Minister
4 4 ML 8-5 West Coast M. Smith 124 Lbs B. Baffert L
Flatter - Caressing | Honour and Glory
5 5 ML 3-1 Irap M. Gutierrez 122 Lbs D. O'Neill L
Tiznow (http://www.winstarfarm.com/horses/tiznow-2021.html) - Silken Cat | Storm Cat
6 6 ML 20-1 Talk Logistics F. Pennington 117 Lbs E. Plesa, Jr. L
High Cotton - Alotofappeal | Trippi
7 7 ML 15-1 Game Over K. Carmouche 117 Lbs J. Navarro L
Mineshaft - Kaweah Princess | Soto
8 8 ML 9-2 Irish War Cry F. Lynch 122 Lbs H. Motion L
Curlin - Irish Sovereign | Polish Numbers
9 9 ML 20-1 Term of Art D. Van Dyke 117 Lbs D. O'Neill L
Tiznow (http://www.winstarfarm.com/horses/tiznow-2021.html) - Miles of Style | Storm Cat
10 10 ML 20-1 Giuseppe the Great L. Saez 117 Lbs N. Zito L
Lookin At Lucky (http://coolmore.com/stallions/lookin-at-lucky/?farm=america) - Shawnee Moon | Forestry



Equipment Changes: 9 Term of Art - Blk-On

Nice field-who do you like?

[VigorsTheGrey]

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SNPP-PRX-20170923-543453

Many nominations are not actually in the race, verify entries.

[Afleet]

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=PRX&race=11&param1=8118&param2=1886&param3=1774960

Think Timeline has to go? West Coast goes w/him or drops back? Usually Parx has the track super fast for their big day. That Bris late pace number of 115 for West Coast in the Travers is impressive.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Timeline and Outplay look like the likely pacesetters with West Coast settling in behind these in 3rd...Mike E Smith must wait this time...should be exciting race, especially if the pacesetters slow things down a bit...1 million up for grabs here, game on...

[Afleet]

try this again

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htm

[GMB@BP]

Looks like a pretty solid pace here. Timeline being inside may be a bit forced, unless they try something new with him. Irish War Cry seems really to need the lead in order to run his best race.

No way West Coast is near this lead, in fact I can see him sitting 3rd or 4th at best.

[Racey]

Does in fact tend to hold up on their biggest day...watch out

[Dahoss9698]

Should mention also that although the rail is usually dead at Parx for most of the year....it tends to be pretty good on their big day.

[jimmyb]

IWC on 9/18 sharp 5F 100.2 B. Training like a winner

[Afleet]

I think Guiseppe the Great is a fine horse, but why put him in this race? I think Zito's ego gets in the way to the horses detriment

[GMB@BP]

There is a Navarro in here, does he get the vegetable juice? Time to line the pockets.

[horses4courses]

IWC on 9/18 sharp 5F 100.2 B. Training like a winner

Tell you what.
You can have IWC, I'll take West Coast.
Straight up......head to head.
I'll even give you +1.20. :coffee:

[VigorsTheGrey]

There is a Navarro in here, does he get the vegetable juice? Time to line the pockets.

Not the worst bet by any means....the sleeper must awaken?

[TheGarMan]

Going to pack the car and head to PARX soon for "Derby Day"...

Say what you want about PARX, but two Grade 1's and a hat giveaway, with FREE ADMISSION and free parking isn't a bad deal.. (Compare that with our Preakness day, and I am $350.00 ahead when I walk in the door) :lol:

You guys have a great (and profitable) day, no matter where you are playing..

[MonmouthParkJoe]

Going to pack the car and head to PARX soon for "Derby Day"...

Say what you want about PARX, but two Grade 1's and a hat giveaway, with FREE ADMISSION and free parking isn't a bad deal.. (Compare that with our Preakness day, and I am $350.00 ahead when I walk in the door) :lol:

You guys have a great (and profitable) day, no matter where you are playing..

I am debating going today. Do they still allow you to bring in your own food and bev? I havent been since the casino took over. Gates open at 10!

[menifee]

Timeline is intriguing here. Inside speed holds on big days - he has to send. West Coast - is the logical winner, but for some reason I have this nagging feeling that he is not as good as that Travers made him look. Irap has developed nicely too. I thought his Travers was better than it looks on paper.

I’ll bet Timeline and use with Irap and WC.

[TheGarMan]

Timeline is intriguing here. Inside speed holds on big days - he has to send. West Coast - is the logical winner, but for some reason I have this nagging feeling that he is not as good as that Travers made him look. Irap has developed nicely too. I thought his Travers was better than it looks on paper.

I’ll bet Timeline and use with Irap and WC.

I am with you... I think West Coast is the class, but something tells me today might be the day for Timeline. I'll be watching the rail in earlier races for sure..
:ThmbUp:

[Mulerider]

I am with you... I think West Coast is the class, but something tells me today might be the day for Timeline. I'll be watching the rail in earlier races for sure..
:ThmbUp:

My final rankings, for better or worse. I'll wait to see final odds before I decide on bet structure, but Timeline will be in there somewhere, even for a small W/P bet. Good luck to everyone!

:4: WEST COAST
:5: IRAP
:1: TIMELINE
:8: IRISH WAR CRY
:10: GIUSEPPE THE GREAT


Mule

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm taking Irap at 3-1 or better. He broke from outside and went 4 wide in both turns on a day I thought the rail was pretty good. West Coast lifetime topped out on that rail. I think he can still win but at miserly odds. Should be a pretty interesting race!

[classhandicapper]

I think Irap ran deceptively well losing a TON of ground chasing West Coast up close on a day I would have preferred to save some ground.

I also think the Haskell kind of collapsed on a day I made MTH more of an outside closer track. So I think Timeline and Irish War Cry are probably a little better than they look off their last races even though they were off the rail (unlike Battle of Midway who had the worst of both worlds and got off badly too).

The problem with insights like these is that even if I am correct, none of them may be better than West Coast who seems to be another Baffert horse making significant progress.

I definitely think the gap between Irap and West Coast is less than it looks off the Travers in isolation, but I'm still not sure what to do with that information unless the prices shock me.

[Tom]

I think Guiseppe the Great is a fine horse, but why put him in this race? I think Zito's ego gets in the way to the horses detriment

He's there for the cheesesteaks.

[CincyHorseplayer]

He's there for the cheesesteaks.

Graded stakes and cheese steaks. Irresistible combo!:D

[Road Kill]

I think Guiseppe the Great is a fine horse, but why put him in this race? I think Zito's ego gets in the way to the horses detriment

So Term of Art has some company coming across the finish line. 🤷🏼*♀️

[Robert Fischer]

West Coast is good, probably a slight underlay. Last time was the time. I feel he has a slightly less chance than he did before the Travers, and I'm guessing he'll be a third of the price.

Timeline certainly has potential. The Haskell kind of fell apart late, but there are a lot of unknowns and 'hopes' with this guy, even if they are high hopes. Boom, bust, or anywhere in between.

Against Irap here. He got a great setup in the Travers. He's the fun, 'now' horse. 3-1 ml... I'll be surprised if he finishes in the top three today.

Outplay and Game Over may inject value into a ticket.
Outplay is a lower-tier stakes contender on his day.

Game Over has the other trainer besides West Coast's trainer, who has flaunted a big edge, and he's 15-1 ml. A bit of a cheaper animal than others, but Carmouche could take the initiative, and that stamina edge combined with a good cruising position could certainly lead to a board spot.


No play for me. Will be watching.

[Quesmark]

3/25- Steve Assmussen Al Graziani & Joe Russell (KY) OP 1:10.4
5/14- Ron Moquett CD 1:21.4
6/24- Jeffrey Radosevich TDN Ohio Derby big middle move vs Irap,Girvin
8/5- Jorge Navarro MNR 2nd WVa Derby
New owners Loooch Racing Stable
Mineshaft/Kaweah Princess (17sts 5w-6p-1s $214,645)

Jorge Navarro is Game Over's 4th trainer,and he has new owners too for the Pa Derby,breeding is solid,won 1st out at OP drawing off by 4 in a solid time & followed that up with a sizzling 7 F win,on the stretch out in Ohio he made a big middle move vs Irap,and came back with a 2nd in the WV Derby.GO's lightly raced,working up a storm and can sit a stalking trip behind the speed,might surprise...

[FakeNameChanged]

I think Irap ran deceptively well losing a TON of ground chasing West Coast up close on a day I would have preferred to save some ground.

I also think the Haskell kind of collapsed on a day I made MTH more of an outside closer track. So I think Timeline and Irish War Cry are probably a little better than they look off their last races even though they were off the rail (unlike Battle of Midway who had the worst of both worlds and got off badly too).

The problem with insights like these is that even if I am correct, none of them may be better than West Coast who seems to be another Baffert horse making significant progress.

I definitely think the gap between Irap and West Coast is less than it looks off the Travers in isolation, but I'm still not sure what to do with that information unless the prices shock me.
So, have you narrowed this down any more with the current odds?

[jimmyb]

What is Drug O'neill up to with the 9, Term of Art. Why is he here?

[cj]

What is Drug O'neill up to with the 9, Term of Art. Why is he here?

Gotta be the owners, no? He's been doing this for a year with the horse.

[Mulerider]

He's there for the cheesesteaks.

And now he can buy $110,000 worth! :)

[SharpCat]

West Coast looked much the best on paper and ran to it. Not sure what there plans are for this year but looks to be a hell of a 4yo if he stays in training.

[luisbe]

West Coast looked much the best on paper and ran to it. Not sure what there plans are for this year but looks to be a hell of a 4yo if he stays in training.
Maybe Baffert will go for BC's trifecta.

[GMB@BP]

Maybe Baffert will go for BC's trifecta.

tough call, i wont be shocked to see baffert do something like the Clark Pegasus and avoid his best horses this year.

West Coast is not Arrogate, and not sure he is as good as Collected.

[menifee]

WC was very impressive -best of a mediocre crop. Don’t understand the tactics with Timeline -would not have mattered but why try to rate there? Anyway, he’s been exposed.

[SharpCat]

tough call, i wont be shocked to see baffert do something like the Clark Pegasus and avoid his best horses this year.

West Coast is not Arrogate, and not sure he is as good as Collected.

Not a bad idea if they skipped the Classic and did the Clark, Pegasus and DWC.

IMO he is the inly 3yo that should consider running in the Classic. If he does go in the Classic that would be 4 for Baffert and possibly half of the field.

[cj]

tough call, i wont be shocked to see baffert do something like the Clark Pegasus and avoid his best horses this year.

West Coast is not Arrogate, and not sure he is as good as Collected.

I'm not sure about the Collected part.

[GMB@BP]

I'm not sure about the Collected part.

There is still something about West Coast that does not sell me, I think he has taken advantage of a very very weak crop that has been raced out the back half of the year.

Also, I had been hearing about Arrogate back early last year, West Coast was more or less another decent horse in the barn.

[Fager Fan]

If I was Baffert, I'd get Arrogate and all my big horses on a plane to Churchill or somewhere, then ship back to Del Mar on BC Tues or so. His record shipping in for these big races is insane. Not so much so leading them from their barn to the paddock.

[cj]

If I was Baffert, I'd get Arrogate and all my big horses on a plane to Churchill or somewhere, then ship back to Del Mar on BC Tues or so. His record shipping in for these big races is insane. Not so much so leading them from their barn to the paddock.

Didn't he win the San Diego and the Pacific Classic?

[Fager Fan]

Didn't he win the San Diego and the Pacific Classic?

He lost the first with a 1-9 favorite, and won the latter with the wrong horse.

My comment was tongue in cheek, but it does seem his horses are running insane off the plane. Even today, the filly hung really tough considering Mike's premature move.

[GMB@BP]

He lost the first with a 1-9 favorite, and won the latter with the wrong horse.

My comment was tongue in cheek, but it does seem his horses are running insane off the plane. Even today, the filly hung really tough considering Mike's premature move.

I agree, the filly would have jogged making a wide move from last around the turn, and the best part of that is you will never be criticized for a move like that, other than the lost to much ground haters.

That filly wasnt good today, she should have won.

[cj]

Stakes figs at Parx today:

[cj]

He lost the first with a 1-9 favorite, and won the latter with the wrong horse.

My comment was tongue in cheek, but it does seem his horses are running insane off the plane. Even today, the filly hung really tough considering Mike's premature move.

Think that has more to do with having the best horses. We've been discussing it for a while now, west coast horses are just better on dirt. On turf, it is the other way around.

[Fager Fan]

I heard Irap broke down after the wire, to have surgery tomorrow morning.

[Dahoss9698]

Yeah I heard that too.....because it's been reported for hours now by all the racing publications.

[classhandicapper]

I heard Irap broke down after the wire, to have surgery tomorrow morning.

I suspect it initially happened during the race when he bore in sharply during the stretch run. He might have been running in pain and on heart after that.

[FakeNameChanged]

Stakes figs at Parx today:
CJ, Not totally familiar with your figs. Do you assign some type of variant to the Parx track yesterday, specifically the sprints? I seem to remember you saying you don't use pars. Thx.

[Fager Fan]

I suspect it initially happened during the race when he bore in sharply during the stretch run. He might have been running in pain and on heart after that.

I agree that's likely, read that it was fractured sesamoid which can be quite serious, best of luck in his recovery.

[cj]

CJ, Not totally familiar with your figs. Do you assign some type of variant to the Parx track yesterday, specifically the sprints? I seem to remember you saying you don't use pars. Thx.

I don't use class pars to make figures. In my opinion that is virtually impossible these days (and was never all that great anyway). I do use a track variant that is based on projections for the horses. I use several horses in each race.

Here is a chart of the PA Derby from TimeformUS. It shows yesterday's figures and you can see the two previous figures as well. If you use the actual chart you can scroll through the entire history of every horses. This chart is in past performance style, i.e. the lengths behind are behind the leader.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I heard Irap broke down after the wire, to have surgery tomorrow morning.

Wow. Always hate to hear that. He ran as hard as he could yesterday too. It wasn't a winning effort but under the circumstances yes it very was. Sounds like he will be OK and that's all that matters to this player.

[Fager Fan]

Wow. Always hate to hear that. He ran as hard as he could yesterday too. It wasn't a winning effort but under the circumstances yes it very was. Sounds like he will be OK and that's all that matters to this player.

I hope he'll be ok. Sesamoid injuries can be very tricky because of how small yet important they are. I read somewhere that they're going to fuse the joint, so that is concerning. I take that to mean it's a serious fracture. The only horse I was ever associated with who had a fused joint eventually foundered, so my experience with that wasn't pleasant.

Here's a good piece on the sesamoids if anyone would care to read it.
http://www.thehorse.com/articles/34741/sesamoid-injuries-diagnosis-treatment-and-prevention

[TheGarMan]

Going to pack the car and head to PARX soon for "Derby Day"...

Say what you want about PARX, but two Grade 1's and a hat giveaway, with FREE ADMISSION and free parking isn't a bad deal.. (Compare that with our Preakness day, and I am $350.00 ahead when I walk in the door) :lol:

You guys have a great (and profitable) day, no matter where you are playing..


Just to wrap things up, we had a GREAT time at PARX yesterday....

We made the 2 hour drive, and took in the entire card...While it was HOT outside, there was plenty of Air Con upstairs....

5 Stakes races, , two Grade 1's .... Got 2 free hats, the FREE ADMISSION and free parking , and dinner at Chickie & Petes... And, I CRUSHED all 5 stakes races... (Special thanks to Page McKenney !!!!! ) For us , the PA Derby day remains on of the best values on the yearly schedule.....

Thanks to all ! :ThmbUp::

[TheGarMan]

Oh, ok, one minor complaint:

After the Derby, with IRAP :5: in obvious distress down the front stretch , the public address announcer didn't even mention it... 1) A horse was injured right in front of us, and you dont mention it???... 2) The ambulance was literally coming down the front stretch in front of everyone, still no mention?? 3) Could you at least mention which horse was involved next time? -

I didn't even know who it was until I got home a few hours later...

It's a small thing, and I know its a sensitive situation, but PLEASE give the crowd a little info next time... Thanks!

[horses4courses]

Wow. Always hate to hear that. He ran as hard as he could yesterday too. It wasn't a winning effort but under the circumstances yes it very was. Sounds like he will be OK and that's all that matters to this player.

So far, so good.
Doug O'Neill posted this early today:

https://www.facebook.com/dougoneillracingstable/posts/1624119190941809

[JustRalph]

I’ve watched it a few times and think Irap was off the whole damn trip. He was climbing going up the backstretch, looked odd the rest of the way........

[onefast99]

Oh, ok, one minor complaint:

After the Derby, with IRAP :5: in obvious distress down the front stretch , the public address announcer didn't even mention it... 1) A horse was injured right in front of us, and you dont mention it???... 2) The ambulance was literally coming down the front stretch in front of everyone, still no mention?? 3) Could you at least mention which horse was involved next time? -

I didn't even know who it was until I got home a few hours later...

It's a small thing, and I know its a sensitive situation, but PLEASE give the crowd a little info next time... Thanks!
Keith Jones will never relish on an injury on the track. He wont because he has no idea why a horse may have pulled up after the wire.

[upthecreek]

https://twitter.com/raypaulick/status/912356104180510721

[Valuist]

Anyone know why Pavel wasn't entered? That Smarty Jones win was as impressive as any race I've seen by a 3 year old male this year.

[AstrosFan]

Oh, ok, one minor complaint:

After the Derby, with IRAP :5: in obvious distress down the front stretch , the public address announcer didn't even mention it... 1) A horse was injured right in front of us, and you dont mention it???... 2) The ambulance was literally coming down the front stretch in front of everyone, still no mention?? 3) Could you at least mention which horse was involved next time? -

I didn't even know who it was until I got home a few hours later...

It's a small thing, and I know its a sensitive situation, but PLEASE give the crowd a little info next time... Thanks!


That's b/c Keith Jones is not a good race caller

[cj]

That's b/c Keith Jones is not a good race caller

This is ridiculous. The guy has done a fine job for at least three decades that I know about. The news about Irap didn't even come out until later in the day.

[AstrosFan]

Just to wrap things up, we had a GREAT time at PARX yesterday....

We made the 2 hour drive, and took in the entire card...While it was HOT outside, there was plenty of Air Con upstairs....

5 Stakes races, , two Grade 1's .... Got 2 free hats, the FREE ADMISSION and free parking , and dinner at Chickie & Petes... And, I CRUSHED all 5 stakes races... (Special thanks to Page McKenney !!!!! ) For us , the PA Derby day remains on of the best values on the yearly schedule.....

Thanks to all ! :ThmbUp::

I paid a visit last fall to Parx and needless to say it is a joke of a facility.

Broken benches, bird feces and the gate crew sitting on the counter where the public puts their programs down to get changes etc.

No thank you, place is a disgrace!

[upthecreek]

This is ridiculous. The guy has done a fine job for at least three decades that I know about. The news about Irap didn't even come out until later in the day.

WRONG Local Comcast channel in Philadelphia was live Broadcasting the race(Pincay, Moss and Dick Jerardi) They announced it 5 mins after the race and then I started seeing it on Twitter
Forgot Canton Bredar was there and she interviewed the on call vet before they went off the air

[Dahoss9698]

Anyone know why Pavel wasn't entered? That Smarty Jones win was as impressive as any race I've seen by a 3 year old male this year.

He's running in the Jockey Club Gold Cup

[GMB@BP]

He's running in the Jockey Club Gold Cup

Probably an easier spot given the 108 it would have taken to win this

[Valuist]

Maybe, but not impossible for Pavel. I think he got a 103 Beyer in the Smarty Jones and he was completely geared down. One of the easiest winners one will ever see.

[Track Phantom]

I paid a visit last fall to Parx and needless to say it is a joke of a facility.

Broken benches, bird feces and the gate crew sitting on the counter where the public puts their programs down to get changes etc.

No thank you, place is a disgrace!
WOW! See this is the kind of thing that even the slightest amount of management would rectify. I get it that there aren't a lot of people showing up on a daily basis but have a bit of pride and attention to detail.

When I went to Retama Park last fall on a Wednesday to cash some tickets from earlier in the year, I almost threw up. They had a garbage can, in the main walkway to get into the facility, that was so overstuffed, much of the garbage had spilled out onto the ground. There were hundreds of flies and bugs cannibalizing it.

They may not be able to afford to replace the 1992 Magnavox box TV's that are missing up and down buttons for the channels but how about giving a shit about how the place looks? (By the way, this was during simulcast season, no live racing, so how long do you think that trash was sitting there? The over/under was set at 6 weeks).

[CincyHorseplayer]

Just to wrap things up, we had a GREAT time at PARX yesterday....

We made the 2 hour drive, and took in the entire card...While it was HOT outside, there was plenty of Air Con upstairs....

5 Stakes races, , two Grade 1's .... Got 2 free hats, the FREE ADMISSION and free parking , and dinner at Chickie & Petes... And, I CRUSHED all 5 stakes races... (Special thanks to Page McKenney !!!!! ) For us , the PA Derby day remains on of the best values on the yearly schedule.....

Thanks to all ! :ThmbUp::

Hell yes brother!:ThmbUp:

[CincyHorseplayer]

This is ridiculous. The guy has done a fine job for at least three decades that I know about. The news about Irap didn't even come out until later in the day.

Absolutely. He has some really funny calls too and you don't get that much!