View Full Version : TimeformUS Early/ Late Pace Ratings
VigorsTheGrey
09-16-2017, 10:12 PM
Longshot Always Thinking #14 in Laurels 7th 16Sep2017, showed a TimeformUS Late rating of 121....How high do these ratings go up...? Starting to really focus on the high Early or high Late ratings...What about these HIGH ratings...?
Longshot Always Thinking #14 in Laurels 7th 16Sep2017, showed a TimeformUS Late rating of 121....How high do these ratings go up...? Starting to really focus on the high Early or high Late ratings...What about these HIGH ratings...?
Watching the fight tonight and just got back from the OU game. I'll give a very detailed answer to this tomorrow at some point.
Watching the fight tonight and just got back from the OU game. I'll give a very detailed answer to this tomorrow at some point.
PS...You could have mentioned he won and paid $52 :)
I'll give this a shot...
The early and late ratings are not meant to be compared to each other. Early ratings should be compared to early ratings and late ratings to late ratings. The ratings are designed so that any horse can be compared to any other horse. Horses that have been racing on different surfaces and at very different distances can and often do meet up in the same race. Because of this, the ratings need to be able to differentiate between a horse that runs fast early at 5f on dirt and one that shows speed at 12f on turf. The same goes for late ratings. Finishing fast in a 6f dirt race isn't the same as doing so in a 9f turf race.
I don't keep pars or averages on these ratings...maybe I should. But theoretically, it should work like this. The example below is for older stakes horses. This is about what the average winner would run early and late.
Fur Sur Ear Late
6 D 145 115
8 D 135 125
9 D 130 130
10 D 125 135
12 D 115 145
6 T 135 125
8 T 125 135
9 T 120 140
10 T 115 145
12 T 105 155
So, in the example Vigors cited, the 14 horse had a much higher late rating than the others because he had been closing well in turf routes and was cutting back to 6f. Obviously this doesn't always result in the horse being competitive. In this case, the pace was really fast and set up nicely for the closer. That isn't rare when the pace gets extreme, slow or fast. The winner often looks good on the early/late ratings.
Another horse in the same race, the 3, was a good example in the other direction. She had her most success running long on the lead in turf races. But cutting back to a sprint, her early speed rating was pretty low and placed her midpack. She couldn't keep up with the sprinters early, raced in midpack and pretty much stayed there all the way around.
It isn't easy to predict the extreme pace scenarios though. TimeformUS didn't indicate the pace was likely to be fast for the Laurel race yesterday. Sometimes we nail it, but of course not always.
VigorsTheGrey
09-17-2017, 12:45 PM
CJ,
"The ratings are designed so that any horse can be compared to any other horse. Horses that have been racing on different surfaces and at very different distances can and often do meet up in the same race."
Do the ratings travel to other tracks well...? Meaning, are they interchangeable between tracks....? I recently learned that DRF speed rating/ variant are track specific, that a 100-10 at one track is not equal to a 100-10 at another track...I sure this it what Beyer, in part, was addressing in creating the Beyer number...
It seems like each track should have a baseline surface coefficient established vis-a-vis other tracks...
So, for exampe, are the TimeformUS pace ratings of 75 early, 100 late at Del Mar equal to same figures at Belmont Park...?
CJ,
"The ratings are designed so that any horse can be compared to any other horse. Horses that have been racing on different surfaces and at very different distances can and often do meet up in the same race."
Do the ratings travel to other tracks well...? Meaning, are they interchangeable between tracks....? I recently learned that DRF speed rating/ variant are track specific, that a 100-10 at one track is not equal to a 100-10 at another track...I sure this it what Beyer, in part, was addressing in creating the Beyer number...
It seems like each track should have a baseline surface coefficient established vis-a-vis other tracks...
So, for exampe, are the TimeformUS pace ratings of 75 early, 100 late at Del Mar equal to same figures at Belmont Park...?
Yes, no different than the speed figures. They travel. That is the toughest part and I work to keep that up to date. It isn't always perfect.
GMB@BP
09-17-2017, 05:05 PM
One of the things I have been meaning to study, and if I actually knew anything about databasing this would be much easier but I wonder how many times say a horse who is a mid pack runner in the pace project who finds himself near the early lead ends up winning...then say a late closer who in the pace projector finds themselves in mid pack. I use these two as its a bit hidden to the public without pace figures. If a horse who can close doenst have to exert much energy to keep up it seems to me they have a much better chances of winning.
Now this can go the opposite, a closer who has been doing well as of late suddenly finds h imself with better horses, now his 80 early pace figure places him 15 lengths back rather than the 7 or 8 lengths he has had in his last few setups.
Identifying this is really hard but again I alway look for hidden things and this angle is a bit hidden from the normal player.
Couldn't find the thread I really wanted to post this in, but this one works...
In the 6th at Del Mar today, the much the best Late Pace figure won in a race predicted to have a fast pace. He paid $150.
https://i.ibb.co/D40d8v3/Dmr1124-R6.png
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/DMR112419USA6.pdf
JustRalph
11-25-2019, 02:56 PM
Couldn't find the thread I really wanted to post this in, but this one works...
In the 6th at Del Mar today, the much the best Late Pace figure won in a race predicted to have a fast pace. He paid $150.
https://i.ibb.co/D40d8v3/Dmr1124-R6.png
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/DMR112419USA6.pdf
Only? $150
AltonKelsey
11-25-2019, 04:05 PM
Horse probably paid way too much, but focusing on a single data point like this will always produce huge prices, sometime, randomly .
It's a form of numerology. :p
Now, if you can show a decent sample, where this angle is profitable or at least better than a random takeout loser, we can talk about it.
That decent sample is out there.
I have posted many times the exact same thing, but just not for that much!
Probably one of the best all time spot plays I have ever seen.:ThmbUp:
classhandicapper
11-25-2019, 04:49 PM
Horse probably paid way too much, but focusing on a single data point like this will always produce huge prices, sometime, randomly .
It's a form of numerology. :p
Now, if you can show a decent sample, where this angle is profitable or at least better than a random takeout loser, we can talk about it.
I agree with your general point and can't vouch for the flat bet profitability of a large sample of races using any specific numbers, but I can tell you that if a race melts down, some really big longshot closers will often hit the board or light it up to win, especially if they also happened to get a perfect ground saving trip or it was a track that was favoring closers.
The real problem is that first you have to be right about the pace, then the pace has to actually cause a meltdown (sometimes it's fast but does not melt down), and then you have to have the best closer or the closer that got the best trip. That's a lot of "ifs" when you know you are betting an inferior horse that needs everything to go right. That said, it's a good angle when the conditions are just right for a meltdown.
Speed Figure
11-25-2019, 04:57 PM
The only problem with the horse was the 378 day layoff. That hasn’t been mentioned.
You mentioned it, and apparently it wasn't a problem. :)
ZIA PArk Free race today - coming up in 13 minutes - PP says Fast Pace.
Top two LP horses by a good margin are:
:8: (98)
:3: (83)
:1: (70)
Let's see what happens.
CJ - question on this race - #1 EP has a 9 point advantage - is that roughly 2 lengths? ( 1 length = 10 pts?)
Horse probably paid way too much, but focusing on a single data point like this will always produce huge prices, sometime, randomly .
It's a form of numerology. :p
Now, if you can show a decent sample, where this angle is profitable or at least better than a random takeout loser, we can talk about it.
It is profitable, I've posted about it before. I couldn't find the thread though. It's far from numerology.
It is profitable, I've posted about it before. I couldn't find the thread though. It's far from numerology.
74-1 shots are always going to have some holes. This one was working well, had figures that stacked up well and wasn't dropping in class. You aren't going to get bombs that look like standouts.
You mentioned it, and apparently it wasn't a problem. :)
ZIA PArk Free race today - coming up in 13 minutes - PP says Fast Pace.
Top two LP horses by a good margin are:
:8: (98)
:3: (83)
:1: (70)
Let's see what happens.
CJ - question on this race - #1 EP has a 9 point advantage - is that roughly 2 lengths? ( 1 length = 10 pts?)
Traveling today, just checked in to hotel in Vegas. Sorry if this is late. 5 points is a length on the Pace Projector though.
Robert Fischer
11-25-2019, 06:58 PM
Horse probably paid way too much, but focusing on a single data point like this will always produce huge prices, sometime, randomly .
It's a form of numerology. :p
Now, if you can show a decent sample, where this angle is profitable or at least better than a random takeout loser, we can talk about it.
lot of ways to use the tool
The chalk, :10: NEXT GEN was a very 'keyable' horse for Hronis stable, 1st-off-the-claim, 90+ days, rave-review workouts, and absolutely on fire on the Tote(in general & vs. the morning line)...
$1 Exacta $342.90
I would be pissed if I keyed :10: in exactas and saved a $buck, by tossing the :12:...
those are the kind of decisions where you have to be efficient and not carry dead-weight horses (Like the $4 additional it would have cost to include the dead-weight horses :4: RHINESHAFT, and the :11:MAYAN WARRIOR, in the exacta 'key'), but you want understand models and not miss the black swans, by excluding a really big price who happens to have some significant models in their favor...
I've been thinking about doing the 'unlimited' package, maybe in time for the Oaklawn meet. Saves some time and gives you an instant pace projection, in addition to the PPs and charts. That has a value.
At least for me, it's not going to make me wealthy or do the work for me, but it's a tool.
GMB@BP
11-26-2019, 01:59 PM
as I have pointed out, the fast pace pace/fall apart race flow are a much better long shot play then the opposite, the prices tend to be bigger overlays and less obvious to the betting public.
Nice to see Ron M win a race here and there. He was very nice the time or two I met him.
74-1 shots are always going to have some holes. This one was working well, had figures that stacked up well and wasn't dropping in class. You aren't going to get bombs that look like standouts.
You might not like the horse at 9-5, but at 74-1.......
GMB@BP
11-26-2019, 05:10 PM
You might not like the horse at 9-5, but at 74-1.......
my favorite people in racing are those that bet one run closers at 9/5!!!!
Robert Fischer
12-05-2019, 03:11 PM
Hey CJ / TimeformUS
Not sure if CJ's pms are full
1st time tried to purchase today, when I tried to add a credit card, the "ADD CARD" button did not work.
Is there an issue w/ Chrome?
Hey CJ / TimeformUS
Not sure if CJ's pms are full
1st time tried to purchase today, when I tried to add a credit card, the "ADD CARD" button did not work.
Is there an issue w/ Chrome?
I just wasn't around, answered as you already know. Did I get you pointed in the right direction?
Robert Fischer
12-07-2019, 05:50 PM
I just wasn't around, answered as you already know. Did I get you pointed in the right direction?
Thanks.
Got it to work on Microsofte Edge/internet-explorer.
Tried a few cards. Starting to get a feel for the TimeformUS pps.
I like it. Was at a Veterans Hospital for in-law's heart surgery, and they had a filter blocking brisnet, but I could get timeform to work, so that was cool.
Thanks.
Got it to work on Microsofte Edge/internet-explorer.
Tried a few cards. Starting to get a feel for the TimeformUS pps.
I like it. Was at a Veterans Hospital for in-law's heart surgery, and they had a filter blocking brisnet, but I could get timeform to work, so that was cool.
Yeah, I slip the VA a little extra to block BRIS, one of my retiree benefits. :)
Glad all is well. You ever have any questions, fire away.
Robert Fischer
12-14-2019, 10:17 AM
Yeah, I slip the VA a little extra to block BRIS, one of my retiree benefits. :)
Glad all is well. You ever have any questions, fire away.
You guys... :D
like the product. Finally getting the hang of everything. May do the unlimited Oaklawn, or sooner (this month I probably got half-way to the price of Unlimited, with individual purchases)...
Generous exacta yesterday at los al, using two logical failed speeds from the Tiz-a-Longshot race posted. I had a third horse, the fav, as a negative trip note, so all went well. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:
classhandicapper
12-14-2019, 10:19 AM
You guys... :D
like the product. Finally getting the hang of everything. May do the unlimited Oaklawn, or sooner (this month I probably got half-way to the price of Unlimited, with individual purchases)...
Generous exacta yesterday at los al, using two logical failed speeds from the Tiz-a-Longshot race posted. I had a third horse, the fav, as a negative trip note, so all went well. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:
There's a lot of good value added good information at TF, but I may be biased because I worked there for a couple of years during the launch period. :-)
Robert Fischer
01-07-2020, 11:14 AM
...
like the product. Finally getting the hang of everything. May do the unlimited Oaklawn, or sooner (this month I probably got half-way to the price of Unlimited, with individual purchases)...
had a lucky day at Parx yesterday with some trip-notes, and some opinions happened to work out.
Purchased the 'Unlimited' packaged this morning.
Charts are an instant reward. :ThmbUp:
Have yet to play around with the race filter thingy.
Still more familiar w/ the Brisnet PPs, but slowly converting.
Trips
01-07-2020, 11:17 AM
had a lucky day at Parx yesterday with some trip-notes, and some opinions happened to work out.
Purchased the 'Unlimited' packaged this morning.
Charts are an instant reward. :ThmbUp:
Have yet to play around with the race filter thingy.
Still more familiar w/ the Brisnet PPs, but slowly converting.
Very easy to watch replays as well. Agree chart access is outstanding.
had a lucky day at Parx yesterday with some trip-notes, and some opinions happened to work out.
Purchased the 'Unlimited' packaged this morning.
Charts are an instant reward. :ThmbUp:
Have yet to play around with the race filter thingy.
Still more familiar w/ the Brisnet PPs, but slowly converting.
I do probably 60% of my handicapping in the charts.
As for the look, I hated it at first. I wanted traditional looking PPs. But now I can't look at Formulator and be comfortable. It took me a week or two at most.
GaryG
01-07-2020, 04:50 PM
TFUS is a great product. It is ideal for me as I don't have the energy or inclination to make my own figures anymore.
classhandicapper
01-07-2020, 05:24 PM
I do probably 60% of my handicapping in the charts.
Same with me. It may even be higher than 60%.
The only time I'm looking at the PPs, it's too see my notes and to get a quick look at the horse's full record. Then I'm off to the charts to see the specifics of the race I'm interested.
Same with me. It may even be higher than 60%.
The only time I'm looking at the PPs, it's too see my notes and to get a quick look at the horse's full record. Then I'm off to the charts to see the specifics of the race I'm interested.
I'd probably be more but I put a lot of notes in the charts and they show up in the PPs.
Very easy to watch replays as well. Agree chart access is outstanding.
Replays very easy to use :ThmbUp:
hracingplyr
01-08-2020, 11:23 AM
what's in the charts that catches your eye CJ. You looking for anything in particular?
bob
what's in the charts that catches your eye CJ. You looking for anything in particular?
bob
They allow me to do a lot of work ahead of time. I can see at a glance races that had paces that helped and hurt certain horses. This includes the color coded ones, but also ones that are dominated by a certain running style even if there are no coded fractions. If it is all the favorites I don't think much of it, but if it is price horses it probably means the pace numbers don't tell the whole story.
Also, as the races are being run, I put trip notes in the PPs. They carry over to the charts. This helps so I don't have to go back and try to remember my thoughts. Here is an example from Saturday at Gulfstream. I made this note in the PPs on Saturday, it carries over to the chart:
Robert Fischer
01-08-2020, 12:45 PM
They allow me to do a lot of work ahead of time. I can see at a glance races that had paces that helped and hurt certain horses. This includes the color coded ones, but also ones that are dominated by a certain running style even if there are no coded fractions. If it is all the favorites I don't think much of it, but if it is price horses it probably means the pace numbers don't tell the whole story.
Also, as the races are being run, I put trip notes in the PPs. They carry over to the charts. This helps so I don't have to go back and try to remember my thoughts. Here is an example from Saturday at Gulfstream. I made this note in the PPs on Saturday, it carries over to the chart:
Also like the charts. All the things I can do with regular charts. More convenient to do this in Timeform, than it is trying to open multiple equibase tabs/windows. + the added TFUS figs and color-codes.
I love the trip-note ability.
If I commit to TFUS long term, I will start entering notes there (currently use a couple resources and notepad for notes, this would be more convenient ).
[p] You guys promise not look in? [/paranoid]. ;)
Hey - Another question - There's a box/square directly to the left of the 'Race Conditions Oval'. It has a number in it, that I am pretty sure is either a 'par' for that race or a class/rating number related to a par for that field.
Q- is that a par? a projection for that specific field?(up top in today's as well). Is it the 'winning TFUS for that race?
Q2- Sometimes that number is shaded pink/red or blue. -What does that mean?
And is there a quick reference or video instructions link that explains all of these type of things?
Just noticed the new 'gray' No Speed designation for pace projector.
Thanks.
Question 1: https://timeformusblog.com/2013/07/10/how-to-use-race-ratings/
Question 2: https://timeformusblog.com/2014/01/22/bias-indicators-added-to-timeformus-pps/
Pretty much everything is here: https://timeformusblog.com/
No Speed label: https://timeformusblog.com/2019/06/10/timeformus-pace-projector-the-new-no-speed-label/
Robert Fischer
01-08-2020, 01:43 PM
Question 1: https://timeformusblog.com/2013/07/10/how-to-use-race-ratings/
Question 2: https://timeformusblog.com/2014/01/22/bias-indicators-added-to-timeformus-pps/
Pretty much everything is here: https://timeformusblog.com/
No Speed label: https://timeformusblog.com/2019/06/10/timeformus-pace-projector-the-new-no-speed-label/
Thank you. Also just figured out the track condition surface scale of 10-1.
Some really cool stuff.
Robert Fischer
01-08-2020, 02:43 PM
Another Question :coffee:
Did try using the blog first.
I see how to enter trip notes, using today's Past Performance page.
Is there a way in Charts (or another way) to add notes for past races?
Is there a 'horse search' function, where I can enter a horse name, and then put in my existing notes?
Thanks for the help.
Another Question :coffee:
Did try using the blog first.
I see how to enter trip notes, using today's Past Performance page.
Is there a way in Charts (or another way) to add notes for past races?
Is there a 'horse search' function, where I can enter a horse name, and then put in my existing notes?
Thanks for the help.
That I don't believe you can do. You can add overall notes to the chart itself, but they don't show up in the PPs, just the chart. You have a week I think after the races are run to do it in the PPs before they go away.
This is part of why I use the charts so much. I'll inquire about getting it where we can add to "Your Notes" in the charts, but you can't right now.
jimmyb
01-18-2020, 11:23 PM
I've been following TFUS free races of the day. Nice hit in the 7th at SA. Seems spot on with the numbers.
GMB@BP
01-18-2020, 11:46 PM
I've been following TFUS free races of the day. Nice hit in the 7th at SA. Seems spot on with the numbers.
Heck of a training job on the winner. Rafael Becerra has always been a competent horseman but that was really a solid job.
BarchCapper
01-21-2020, 02:45 PM
I saw somewhere in a thread that someone mentioned being interested in a Timeform package for a specific meet (rather than a monthly unlimited for all tracks). I know I would be interested in looking at that for Oaklawn. Has anyone come across such an offering?
I saw somewhere in a thread that someone mentioned being interested in a Timeform package for a specific meet (rather than a monthly unlimited for all tracks). I know I would be interested in looking at that for Oaklawn. Has anyone come across such an offering?
I can ask, but think we only do that for Saratoga.
Robert Fischer
02-09-2020, 02:22 PM
lot of ways to use the tool
The chalk, :10: NEXT GEN was a very 'keyable' horse for Hronis stable, 1st-off-the-claim, 90+ days, rave-review workouts, and absolutely on fire on the Tote(in general & vs. the morning line)...
$1 Exacta $342.90
I would be pissed if I keyed :10: in exactas and saved a $buck, by tossing the :12:...
Next Gen is back today. Oaklawn R7 :3:.
Working well.
I'm not super confident in what I was hoping would be a situation to hammer, and key a bet-back. This race drew in several other high-upside horses, for connections that are also hot.
Still interesting to see him back. He'll run a good race at 5/2-9/2 range or whatever, I don't mind sharing as I'm not going in hard on him.
Robert Fischer
02-09-2020, 06:04 PM
I'm not super confident in what I was hoping would be a situation to hammer, and key a bet-back. This race drew in several other high-upside horses, for connections that are also hot.
Too much firepower in that race. Did not run poorly.
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