On Bris Race Shapes

[VigorsTheGrey]

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=raceshapes_lib

I want to start using the Bris Race shape numbers as part of my handicapping and was wondering if any of you are familiar with their nuances...

The other day a horse won that came out of a race that had +15...+17 for the first and second calls so I'm gonna start looking for that more often....maybe also look for mid-teens in the negative categories as well as well...

...These remind me of DRF's race shape symbols system only with numbers...

"The BRIS Race Shapes correspond to the first and second calls of a race. The first BRIS Race Shape value corresponds to the first call (2f call for most sprints; and 4f call for most routes). The second BRIS Race Shape value corresponds to the second call (4f call for most sprints; and 6f call for most routes). This enables the user to quickly identify which segment(s) of the race were fastest and slowest (relative to each call's average pace for the final time)."

What do they mean "average pace" Whose average...? Which race(s)...?

Any comments...?

[therussmeister]

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=raceshapes_lib

I want to start using the Bris Race shape numbers as part of my handicapping and was wondering if any of you are familiar with their nuances...

The other day a horse won that came out of a race that had +15...+17 for the first and second calls so I'm gonna start looking for that more often....maybe also look for mid-teens in the negative categories as well as well...

...These remind me of DRF's race shape symbols system only with numbers...

"The BRIS Race Shapes correspond to the first and second calls of a race. The first BRIS Race Shape value corresponds to the first call (2f call for most sprints; and 4f call for most routes). The second BRIS Race Shape value corresponds to the second call (4f call for most sprints; and 6f call for most routes). This enables the user to quickly identify which segment(s) of the race were fastest and slowest (relative to each call's average pace for the final time)."

What do they mean "average pace" Whose average...? Which race(s)...?

Any comments...?

BRIS's ratings are not class pars but are based on the final time. For example: Suppose a 6 furlong race at GP is run in 1:11.34. BRIS has determined the average 4f split time for all races ruin in 1:11.34 @ GP is 46.41 (just made that up) and then calculates a race shape number based on this race's 4f time.

[VigorsTheGrey]

BRIS's ratings are not class pars but are based on the final time. For example: Suppose a 6 furlong race at GP is run in 1:11.34. BRIS has determined the average 4f split time for all races ruin in 1:11.34 @ GP is 46.41 (just made that up) and then calculates a race shape number based on this race's 4f time.

That's kind of what I don't understand...thought they took all races run at 6 furlongs...took all the 1st call times for the leader in each of those races, then averaged those to get the baseline figure...

THEN compare that number to the time of the 1st call leader for the race in question, and then either deducted or added from there, is that how it works...you seem to say something different...

I don't know how it works but would like to understand what I am looking at these days...

[therussmeister]

That's kind of what I don't understand...thought they took all races run at 6 furlongs...took all the 1st call times for the leader in each of those races, then averaged those to get the baseline figure...

THEN compare that number to the time of the 1st call leader for the race in question, and then either deducted or added from there, is that how it works...you seem to say something different...

I don't know how it works but would like to understand what I am looking at these days...

I used to make similar figures before I migrated to BRIS. To explain briefly ,because I don't have a lot of time. Through the magic of excel, with surprisingly little data needed, you can come up with two formulas that will give you a theoretical average 2f and 4f split time for any given final time. You compare this to the actual 2f and 4f times of the race to determine race shape.

You do this by making an x y scatter chart with all data for a given distance and asking excel to create a trend line and supply the formula for the trend line, which you can convert to a formula that you can input any final time and it will determine the proper fractional time.

[Tom]

Exactly what I do.
For BRIS, say a final time of 85 SR.
Looking at many race, you find that the average E2 for an 85 is 91.

Say a race went in 81 - 85, so the race shape is Slow 10.

[hracingplyr]

I might be wrong but i think Pandy wrote a book about using the Bris Race Shapes.

Bob

[cj]

TimeformUS does it better than BRIS, not even close. Race shape is clear as a bell.

[Speed Figure]

TimeformUS does it better than BRIS, not even close. Race shape is clear as a bell.

How?

[cj]

How?

The leader's pace figures are shown at each call if you want them. There are no + or - involved. Extreme cases are color coded. The race shape is readily apparent without confusion.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Is there something out there that shows the horses' figure for each call instead of the leaders'...no matter what position he is in..?

[cj]

Is there something out there that shows the horses' figure for each call instead of the leaders'...no matter what position he is in..?

That option is available in TimeformUS.

[Mulerider]

Is there something out there that shows the horses' figure for each call instead of the leaders'...no matter what position he is in..?

With the Bris Custom PP Generator you have the option of displaying the leader's fractional times or the individual horse's. I don't know if that affects the fractional ratings.

Mule

[Tom]

All the ratings - E1, E2 LP, SP are for the HORSE in the printed PPs.
As Mulerider points out, you have options in the PP Generator.
I have a custom style I use that uses pace of leader four ratings in place of the times, and leave the horse numbers where they are.

[VigorsTheGrey]

How is the par value that both are adjusted against arrived at in TimeformUS...?

[cj]

How is the par value that both are adjusted against arrived at in TimeformUS...?

I don't use class pars, I use baselines. They are based on the optimal percentage the winner runs for each fraction at each distance / surface combination at each track.

6.0 22.00 44.33 68.34
6.5 21.81 44.12 74.45
7.0 22.62 44.84 80.98

That is a snippet from Saratoga on dirt. As an example, the optimal percentage to run the opening quarter at 6f is 22.00 / 68.34 = 0.3219. So, if a race were run with a final time of 1:11.00 (71 seconds), the optimal first quarter would be 71 x 0.3219 = 22.86.

That is the simplified version. Pace variants come into play as well but that is another story.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Los Alamitos 6th Race 16Sept2017 Saturday:

#3 Pat the Bear, last 5 consecutive races DRF C+. last 2 at Del Mar, has 118 early TimeformUS...thought he would do much better on the LA dirt...he did, but just couldn't last over #6 Hawk's Eyes...

Strange horse, as he seems to be the cause of the C+'s but runs ok despite himself...

[pandy]

I might be wrong but i think Pandy wrote a book about using the Bris Race Shapes.

Bob


It's called Pace Handicapping Longshots. The main handicapping spot play method in the book is called the Pace Shape Longshot method which uses a combination of the Bris pace figures and Bris race shapes, and it picked Oxbow ($32.80) to win the Preakness, and Palace Of Malice ($29.60) to win the Belmont a few years ago, plus tons of other longshot winners.

[Tom]

TFUS allows you to toggle between the pace figures of the horse or the leader, and the times, of the race or the leader. For useful.
I have have great success using the adjusted horse times in old handicapping programs and ignoring beaten lengths that way.

[Tom]

Take a look at the free race from Belmont - Race 8.

Pace Projector suggests a fast pace today.
The top 4 late pace horses are :13::12::4::8:
"Par" for the race is 113, and all four have run within a couple of points in the Spotlight figure (111-115)

All four are in for that tag, so I am looking at the :2:, 5th LP rated.
Using the adjusted times, I made Total Pace ( 2nd call + 3rd fraction ratings) for the contenders.

Ranking the horses, early and late- (I used two lines for the 2)


:2: 5/2
:2: 5/3
:9: 1/7
:11: 7/1
:4: 2/5
:3: 3/5

[Tom]

So now that you know how to grab a 4-5 shot......:headbanger:

[GMB@BP]

So now that you know how to grab a 4-5 shot......:headbanger:

From the Chad Brown barn and the rail post...you really found the horse to send it in on.

[Tom]

I love the taste of chalk on a sunny afternoon!

[cutchemist42]

I don't use class pars, I use baselines. They are based on the optimal percentage the winner runs for each fraction at each distance / surface combination at each track.

6.0 22.00 44.33 68.34
6.5 21.81 44.12 74.45
7.0 22.62 44.84 80.98

That is a snippet from Saratoga on dirt. As an example, the optimal percentage to run the opening quarter at 6f is 22.00 / 68.34 = 0.3219. So, if a race were run with a final time of 1:11.00 (71 seconds), the optimal first quarter would be 71 x 0.3219 = 22.86.

That is the simplified version. Pace variants come into play as well but that is another story.

How wide is that range of opening quarters that a winner runs?

[xtb]

How should a race be looked at for dead heat finishes? Horse A is leading at the pace call with a very fast time, Horse B is far back in the field. They hit the finish together. A head bob either way and it could be argued that speed held up or, the pace collapsed. Do you throw out the race? Average the pace calls?