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Dahoss9698
09-10-2017, 10:04 AM
There were more than a few yesterday, so I figured I'd start a thread, so we can look at some potential bet backs. This kind of goes with Halvey's thread a few months back and shows what I view as a trip. Hopefully others join in.

Belmont 9/9
Race 2- Solid- not necessarily a bad trip, but was off slow, raced a little green when first came between horses up backstretch and then put a nice sustained rally to get third at a distance shorter than he wants. The finish and connections mean price won't likely be there next time, but a nice debut.

Race 5- Kahrumana- pretty obvious trouble here. Rosario elected to stay inside and got totally sawed off early stretch, checking sharply. She recovered and put a little run in. Horse that fouled her got DQ'd. Connnections and obvious trip mean price probably won't be there but we'll see. Kind of ironic that in sane race, perennial bad trip horse Vagabond got a great trip and won at 5-1.

Race 7- Majestic Bloom-This race was a great example of how important trips are, especially in full field turf sprints. Winner was probably 4th or 5th best but got best trip. Wantagh Queen had the obvious trouble and finished very well but I think her early trouble was a blessing in disguise as it allowed her to settle and make 1 run. Tiffany's Freud similar story. Had she not had some early trouble she would have been closer to early pace and farther away at finish IMO. I want Majestic Bloom out of here. She had nowhere to go from 3/16ths pole to wire, while in behind tiring pace setters. No mention of this in charts, so we might be looking at an okay price next time.

Race 10- Peculiar Sensation- nothing went right and I'll be nice and say not Rosario's most energetic ride either. Had the 4 come over on him early causing him to lose position, then got caught behind the 1 who steadied, so a horse who
should have been in good spot behind pace was 2nd to last turning for home. Finished well up rail and missed 3rd by nose while not under the strongest of urging the last 1/16th. Problem is, he's not the most reliable horse but chart caller made no mention of trouble so going to give him a look next time.

hopbet
09-11-2017, 08:13 PM
Dahoss
Majestic Bloom is entered this , Friday Belmont Park race 8 (dropping)???

HOPBET

Dahoss9698
09-15-2017, 11:17 PM
Majestic Bloom was 3rd beaten a neck at 10-1 today. Too bad there wasn't a stronger rider up....definitely would've been 2nd, maybe even won.

overthehill
09-18-2017, 11:54 AM
I very rarely give excuses for trips. I find they are usually overbet and the reason the horse gets stymied is because its not strong enough. so far this year i have seen only two horses that i have been anxiously waiting to bet back. the first one was at santa anita. the horse shipped in from europe went off at 10-1 on a turf race and had no place to go the entire stretch. when it finally got clear the jock didnt persevere and the horse ran 4 th. When it did run back it was picked by everyone and wired the field paying all of $3.20 or so. The next horse im still waiting for. I am not going to mention its name. it made its turf debut and was drawn on the inside. despite fairly good breeding it went off double digit odds and when the race went off the jockey as soon as he could took the horse off the rail and went 4-5 wide. I said to myself this is clearly a no try. the horse took every turn 4-5 wide but instead of tiring the horse gained ground in the stretch and ended up losing the bob. I was pretty surprised. the horse was entered back with similar and was 4-1 in the ml but the race came off turf and it was scratched. I will let you guys know the outcome.

the excuses that i do give is when horses clip heels making a move or get bumped badly at the start or get shut of in the stretch. Pletcher had a horse like that when Irad breaking on the inside took 1/2 the field out early. the horse dropped back to last made a winning move but Irad had too much horse and drew away easily. Stewards inquiry but no action was taken.

GMB@BP
09-18-2017, 11:39 PM
I very rarely give excuses for trips. I find they are usually overbet and the reason the horse gets stymied is because its not strong enough. so far this year i have seen only two horses that i have been anxiously waiting to bet back. the first one was at santa anita. the horse shipped in from europe went off at 10-1 on a turf race and had no place to go the entire stretch. when it finally got clear the jock didnt persevere and the horse ran 4 th. When it did run back it was picked by everyone and wired the field paying all of $3.20 or so. The next horse im still waiting for. I am not going to mention its name. it made its turf debut and was drawn on the inside. despite fairly good breeding it went off double digit odds and when the race went off the jockey as soon as he could took the horse off the rail and went 4-5 wide. I said to myself this is clearly a no try. the horse took every turn 4-5 wide but instead of tiring the horse gained ground in the stretch and ended up losing the bob. I was pretty surprised. the horse was entered back with similar and was 4-1 in the ml but the race came off turf and it was scratched. I will let you guys know the outcome.

the excuses that i do give is when horses clip heels making a move or get bumped badly at the start or get shut of in the stretch. Pletcher had a horse like that when Irad breaking on the inside took 1/2 the field out early. the horse dropped back to last made a winning move but Irad had too much horse and drew away easily. Stewards inquiry but no action was taken.


I dont know if I will go as far as you will but they traffic type trips or often overbet, especially in New York and on turf. Then in the next race I have to hope they get a good trip and other factors that seem to be very hard to predict.

My trip handicapping revolves around how pace and trips combine to severely compromise horses chances. Those are less obvious IMO.

MONEY
09-19-2017, 12:24 AM
I find that many horses that get bad trips have a history of bad trips and/or continue to get bad trips.
It could be just bad racing luck or maybe they're just knuckleheads?
Some horses avoid trouble or quickly get out of trouble with or without the jockey's help.

I'm not a trip handicapper, but I think that eliminating horses that get mostly good trips and continue
to lose might be a better strategy than giving horses credit for getting bad trips.

The level of competition also seems to be a factor in bad trips.
Horses that are in over their heads are more likely to get bad trips than horses running at the right
level or against inferior horses. Sadly proof of this can be seen with the drop down off the claim trainers.

Oh! So that I don't get lambasted for not knowing what I'm talking about, I'll say it 1st.
I don't know what I'm talking about.

Robert Fischer
09-19-2017, 12:38 PM
Friday, first race, 'Shoot the Gap'

Notes: Broke through gate, vs grain, demand a price

trip value: C+
Fairly obvious trip. Not a great animal. Probably an 'include at a price' type rather than a key type. Not good enough to commit to playing ahead of time. You really do need tote value to use at all. Public could go either way (wise guy trip underlay, or ignored interesting value add).

cj
09-19-2017, 12:39 PM
Can we try to keep this thread to actual trips? If you want to discuss the merits of trip handicapping, start a new, different thread.

Robert Fischer
09-21-2017, 02:34 PM
Never mind, STG is the 2/1 ml favorite. Unlikely to be any value.

Friday, first race, 'Shoot the Gap'

Notes: Broke through gate, vs grain, demand a price

trip value: C+
Fairly obvious trip. Not a great animal. Probably an 'include at a price' type rather than a key type. Not good enough to commit to playing ahead of time. You really do need tote value to use at all. Public could go either way (wise guy trip underlay, or ignored interesting value add).

Robert Fischer
09-22-2017, 04:55 PM
~3-1 entering the gate, dropped to ~5-2(actually 2.60-1), second choice, in the last flash.
Was about second-best. Apparently clipped heels(tough to see, and I don't care enough to watch multiple replays of this event) and then fell late stretch.

Looks like he would in fact have been good value at higher odds, but as expected - was of no value today. Not much quality in this race, and the public ended up gambling on the trainer/jockey (Rice/Ortiz) FTS.

If there was a value, it was probably the Jacobson claim. Dropper for Saratoga, goes from cold to hot barn, ~6-1 odds,...
Unfortunately was DQ'd in spite of appearing to win.

No one says you have to bet every race. Jacobson should have been on multis (assuming concrete value in races 2,3...), but was a 'guess' even with the favorable board action.

One of the toughest things about trip handicapping is being willing to pass an interesting trip that pops up on your watch list. Very dangerous to get excited and 'commit' to a horse that you see is running back in a few days. Always have to demand great value to overcome takeout.

Friday, first race, 'Shoot the Gap'

Notes: Broke through gate, vs grain, demand a price

trip value: C+
Fairly obvious trip. Not a great animal. Probably an 'include at a price' type rather than a key type. Not good enough to commit to playing ahead of time. You really do need tote value to use at all. Public could go either way (wise guy trip underlay, or ignored interesting value add).

Never mind, STG is the 2/1 ml favorite. Unlikely to be any value.

Dahoss9698
09-24-2017, 04:48 PM
Belmont today, race 3. The very appropriately named Special Trip.

AltonKelsey
09-24-2017, 07:31 PM
Belmont today, race 3. The very appropriately named Special Trip.

Figured someone would see that. In fact the only players that didn't see it were holding the leash of their seeing eye dog.

Dahoss9698
09-24-2017, 10:49 PM
Figured someone would see that. In fact the only players that didn't see it were holding the leash of their seeing eye dog.

Ironically enough no mention of it in the charts.

AltonKelsey
09-25-2017, 12:42 AM
Ironically enough no mention of it in the charts.

Yep. Very ironic . Tough to see it all under time pressure.

Dahoss9698
09-25-2017, 09:41 AM
Yep. Very ironic . Tough to see it all under time pressure.

This sort of goes against your every player saw it comment, no?

AltonKelsey
09-25-2017, 02:31 PM
This sort of goes against your every player saw it comment, no?

No, the chart caller is not a player.

I'd pretty much guarantee this gets big play on Talking Horses when it runs back

Dahoss9698
09-25-2017, 05:30 PM
No, the chart caller is not a player.

I'd pretty much guarantee this gets big play on Talking Horses when it runs back

Of course...because Andy is very sharp and is the best at what he does. It'll be interesting to see the odds on this horse next time.

Feel free to contribute something like a trip you've noticed to this thread.

Mulerider
09-25-2017, 07:02 PM
I'm not too experienced at trip analysis, but Saturday (9-23) in the 3rd race at Parx I was on a FTS, the :2:, A DIFFERENT STYLE. The horse was in good position close to the rail, began to make his move in the stretch, and the jock decided he didn't have enough room to get through on the rail (I thought he did, but then I wasn't sitting on the horse). He swung the horse outside a bit, and I can't tell if (or how much) he slightly checked the horse in the process. The horse finished strongly, 2nd behind the winner by what looked like a couple of lengths. I thought enough of the horse to add him to my stable mail.

Mule

GMB@BP
09-25-2017, 11:21 PM
This sort of goes against your every player saw it comment, no?

The ones who bet real money saw it

Dahoss9698
09-26-2017, 12:03 AM
The ones who bet real money saw it

You polled every big bettor?

I'm trying to figure out why people seem to have an issue with pointing out Trip horses.

GMB@BP
09-26-2017, 10:37 PM
You polled every big bettor?

I'm trying to figure out why people seem to have an issue with pointing out Trip horses.

I am just busting balls.

I dont think its a bad idea at all.

I used to share trip note duty with another friend of ours....god my trip notes were bad back then, I see things so much clearer now.