Betting strategies can anyone

[racko]

Can anyone recommend a book on beeting strategies? Most of the horse I hit pay 6-10 dollars at about 25-30%. I just cannot seem to get out of the red though Thanks

[sq764]

I have been told there is a book by Jim Bradshaw that discusses wagering strategies.. I cannot think of the name though..

[hurrikane]

you can't bet horses at 2- 1 with a 25% hit rate and expect to be in the black no matter what your betting strategy is

[timtam]

Due column wagering is really the only way your gonna get ahead of the game. One hit and your in the black . Thats it in a nutshell. You can play all kinds of kelly,square root,progression any thing you want but you want a method that puts you in the black with one hit. Due column is the answer. What kind of profit do you want divide by the odds hit the race and go home. Oh ya, you better have some deep pockets in case you hit that inevitable losing streak. But thats hoss racing !!!!

[cj]

Originally posted by racko
Can anyone recommend a book on beeting strategies? Most of the horse I hit pay 6-10 dollars at about 25-30%. I just cannot seem to get out of the red though Thanks

Steve Fierro's Four Quarters of Horse Investing, I think that's the title. Very good book. Also Dick Mitchell's Commonsense Betting isn't a bad place to start.

[Dick Schmidt]

The best book on traditional (Kelly Criterion) betting is Barry Meadow's. Best avant-guard looks at betting are Dave Schwartz's two pamphlets on betting.

Anyone who recommends the due column is either mathematically challenged or has a death wish. Run from this as fast as you can. It isn't nicknamed "The Suicide System" for nothing. You can easily wind up betting $2 or $3,000 to win $5. Deep pockets indeed.


Dick


If you can't be a good example then you'll just have to be a horrible warning.
- Alex Tham

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by Dick Schmidt
The best book on traditional (Kelly Criterion) betting is Barry Meadow's. Best avant-guard looks at betting are Dave Schwartz's two pamphlets on betting.

Anyone who recommends the due column is either mathematically challenged or has a death wish. Run from this as fast as you can. It isn't nicknamed "The Suicide System" for nothing. You can easily wind up betting $2 or $3,000 to win $5. Deep pockets indeed.


Dick


If you can't be a good example then you'll just have to be a horrible warning.
- Alex Tham

I did an Amazon.com search for Dave Schwartz under BOOKS and HANDICAPPING and came up with nothing.

Would you please check the spelling?

Thanks,

JM

[Tom]

Originally posted by JustMissed
I did an Amazon.com search for Dave Schwartz under BOOKS and HANDICAPPING and came up with nothing.

Would you please check the spelling?

Thanks,

JM

http://www.horsestreet.com/

Go to free stuff. Really good reading here.

[Dave Schwartz]

JM,

I am (still) Dave Schwartz. <G>


Regards,
Dave Schwartz <G>

[Bob Allen]

Everyone in this thread and lurkers,

There are a few people on this board who know that Dave and I have had our differences, quite loudly at times - even in print, on the HSH board and e-mail. Well, it might be more than a few people but it doesn't matter anymore.

That is background material for what I am about to post.

There is no better set of betting materials, anywhere that I've ever seen, than Dave's two manuscripts, "The Opponent Method" and "Horse Market Investing." Dave is even referenced as a source in Steve Fierro's book, "The Four Quarters of Horse Investing" and he should be for his contribution.

If you are close to, or even slightly under, being a break even player either of these books will *change* your game from losing to winning. As a matter of fact I have Dave's "Opponent Method" right here beside me as I write this. It's been there since the day I received it from him. And I use it.

I believe Dave sells these two wagering methods in a set for something in the range of a $55 investment, or so. I use the term investment on purpose. It is not, nor should it EVER be considered like some of that over-hyped, under-performing RPM junk. This is the real thing and if you can't use it to increase your income then perhaps you should seriously think of reviewing your handicapping method.

I do have one complaint about these manuscripts. I don't want you to think they are perfect - but they could both have used a little proofreading and benefitted from a good spell checking program. However, that does not, in any way, negate the value. These products are worth every penny.

Refer to my first paragraph, what I have said since and then call Dave and order these manuscripts tomorrow. And Dave would be the first to tell you that I don't get a commission and am not affiliated with Horse Street Publications in any manner. But, if it's good, and it is, I won't hide my respect for this information.

Bob

[hurrikane]

I agree with everything everyone has said here (imagine that).

I reiterate...you can't bet 2-1 horses with a 25% win rate and be in the black.

I think Dave has some really great ideas...but even he can't crack this nut.

[Dave Schwartz]

And (amzingly) I agree with Bob on this one. <G>

Seriously Bob, thank you for your gracious comment.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[GameTheory]

Damn, I thought I already owned every horse racing book that could possibly help me -- now I've gotta buy two more. It never ends...

[timtam]

This guy is hitting 25% winners with the mutual $6-10. Why can't he use due column wagering. Be a little more selective and do some research and due column will work for him. He's not playing even money horses which usually doom any due column. Stanley Vitzoski had a $100 a day method ( the original one) and he based his whole system on 2/1 due column wagering and he showed it worked for an entire California meet back in the early 80's. Lets not pat each other on the back with these great wagering methods when we all know its garbage in / garbage out

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by timtam
This guy is hitting 25% winners with the mutual $6-10. Why can't he use due column wagering. Be a little more selective and do some research and due column will work for him. He's not playing even money horses which usually doom any due column. Stanley Vitzoski had a $100 a day method ( the original one) and he based his whole system on 2/1 due column wagering and he showed it worked for an entire California meet back in the early 80's. Lets not pat each other on the back with these great wagering methods when we all know its garbage in / garbage out Did Stanley prove it with real money or just on paper? What happens when your bet becomes so large to win your pittance that the it starts to depress the odds? (Which will happen quite quickly, and even faster on longer odds horses.) There are certain scenarios where a *mild* progression is not too risky. Anything with only a 25% win percentage is no where near any of those scenarios, as it will experience long losing streaks. DUE COLUMN IS LUNACY. If you think it will work, be my guest and try it. You will soon be out of the game.

[Dave Schwartz]

TimTam,

Personally I have to agree with you on this. (Which means I get to disagree with Dick Schmidt - something I don't get to do very often.)

If you have a winning approach (i.e. are capable of showing a long-term positive expectancy) then by all means bet the way that makes you feel comfortable.

Any money management strategy you use is just a tool to make your life easier. That is, to allow you to alter the risk/reward scenario to fit your psyche.

We have the ability to modify our ROI or hit rates through a money management strategy. Unfortunately, we cannot turn a negative into a positive with a money management strategy.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[timtam]

Game theory,

I know due column is lunacy for me but this guy is hitting 25% with $6-10 winners. He has to see how many losses he has during his testing. You know all this stuff but sometimes under certain conditions it will work. Some one actually posted in the search that they know someone who uses due column and it works. I certainly don't use it cause I'm not that good.

[timtam]

It was Dave Schwartz in the due-column wagering who said he knew 2 people who used this type of wagering and were successful. So maybe racko could be number 3.

[GameTheory]

If you are talking about due column in the usual way, that is making whatever size bet is neccessary to reach your profit goal & make up losses so far (in the current session) with a single winner with no "stopping rule" then due column is not only lunacy, but the WORST way to bet. I can't think of a stupider thing to do. At 25% winners, that means there is slightly over 5% chance of having 10 losers in a row (for any series of 10 bets), and about a 1% chance of seeing 15 losers in a row (for any series of 15 bets); either of which in most cases will wipe you out or require a bet so large that the pool can't absorb it (lowering the odds so much that when you do finally win, it still won't make up your losses). All of which means if you have 25% winners and play lots of races, you are going to see losing streaks like that practically every week. Except you'll be ruined after the first one...

[timtam]

In the Wall Street Betting Plan which I think came along with the old K-2 calculator they showed a complete workout of using the top consenus pick of the Sports Eye publication and they tried making $20 a hit. If the horse went off at even money or less you divided the goal by either 20 or 25% and went on from there. After the meet at Aqueduct they were in the black over $3000. For harness they tried to make $10 a race and played Roosevelt and were close to $2000. Its in black and white so if you go back and find errors I wouldn't know but they showed it worked. You just have to be wary of the even money or less horses. You counted the even money as a loss and divided your goal by a quarter and added it in the due column. Why or if it accompanied the k-2 item I'm not sure but it was a way to bet.

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by racko
Can anyone recommend a book on beeting strategies? Most of the horse I hit pay 6-10 dollars at about 25-30%. I just cannot seem to get out of the red though Thanks

Looks like you have the most difficult part of the problem solved.

The rest is quite easy!! just post a few hundred picks here and I'm sure somone will bail you out.:rolleyes:

Joe M

[Light]

Rocko said:

Can anyone recommend a book on beeting strategies? Most of the horse I hit pay 6-10 dollars at about 25-30%. I just cannot seem to get out of the red though Thanks

Now that these guys are off in a tangent,I'll tell you that you have no problem. Do the math and you'll see that you are averaging $8.00 ROI at a 27.5% hit rate. That's a profit of 2.5% every 4 plays.You are in an elite catgory,and possibly a better handicapper than those offering you help. If you are in the red,you need to elaborate or check your math.

[timtam]

Heres a progression you can try. Its right out of Predicting the Outcome by Hank Adams and Dr Donald Sutherland

The cost of the series will be $201 if you miss 12 in a row.

$ 5
$ 8
$ 11
$ 14
$ 16
$ 18
$ 19
$ 20
$ 21
$ 22
$ 23
$ 24


$ 201

[Buckeye]

That's not due column nor will it work.

But don't take my word for it, try it yourself.

It will fail for one or possibly (2) reasons (like one wouldn't be enough!),

(A), if the bet expectation is less than zero (including any and all rebates), then the total amount lost is ALWAYS going to be the product of the total amount bet times some negative number.

(B), if the bet expectation is positive BUT the odds become depressed by the size of the bets themselves causing the expectation to become negative, then see (A) above.

What happens after the $24 bet?

[timtam]

I think everybody on this board knows its not due column.

You claim it won't work. He's hitting 25-30% winners with a $7.00
or better mutual. He goes thru paper test after paper test and checks it himself. How do you know it won't work? Just like due column doesn't work but Schwartz KNOWS 2 guys who use it. Maybe it won't work for you and maybe it won't work for him but for you to blatantly expound it won't work just makes me laugh.

[Buckeye]

Don't waste time laughing at me or about it.

Bet it yourself and then you'll know the truth.

There's only one pure science. Guess what that is?

[Buckeye]

(.25 * 2.5) - (.75) = -.125
Negative expectation, see (A) above.

(.30 * 2.5) - (.70) = +.05
That's a positive expectation: which also cannot be improved upon by changing the bet size. Betting almost 45% of bankroll on the last (4) plays of the progression certainly could, and eventually certainly will, destroy the bank and reduce the 5% edge.

[Buckeye]

and of course, I should have said (C), it will fail because the bet size as a percentage of bank becomes larger than optimal.

[Dave Schwartz]

I don't wish to get too deeply drawn into this but...

I would never say that a money management strategy will or won't work. They can all work... in the hands of a player with a positive expectancy.


Regards to all,
Dave Schwartz

[racko]

Thanks to all who replied. You are all quite helpful. Light probably hit my situation right on the head because I am close to breaking even flat betting. TIMTAM thanks for the progressive sequence, I'll try it. Also I will order the pamphlets. I'm so damn close!!!! Any further comments will be appreciated. I also bet a lot of longshots 12/1 or better and I am wondering if I restrict my odds between 2 and 12 it would cut my losses. It's nice to hit a $25 horse but how often does it really happen. I need to do further research on that. Thanks again to everyone

[BIG RED]

I do 4 races per card ( 5 a day ) and stop when I hit or after the 4th race, I lose, move on. Lots of action, and last 30 days over $9000 profit. Granted it was a good 30 days, bet you have your bad also, but the good outweighs the bad. It works great for me, and only play couple hours a day.

2
3
5
10

I guarantee several of you cappers will do well this way.

[BIG RED]

Made $2100 last weekend alone ( not in those 30 days ). Playing same in waroom today.

[racko]

I dont get the 2 3 5 10?

[BIG RED]

Base , racko. Multiply that order to what you can afford.

Ex: $5

$10

$15

$25

$50

thats a $100 per card per day