Full Card Selections Multiple Tracks 9/3/17

[willphorse]

Full Card Selections, directly from our software. Found it was miscalculating one attribute and now looks like a much better product!


HARRAHS PHILADELPHIA

R1- 1-7-8
R2- 6-8-2
R3- 3-5-1 (BEST BET)
R4- 1-4-8
R5- 5-2-1
R6- 2-7-3
R7- 2-5-3
R8- 1-4-2
R9- 4-10-1
R10- 6-2-3
R11- 8-1-4
R12- 7-6-3
R13- 3-2-8
R14- 7-1-5




POCONO

R1- 2-7-3
R2- 8-3-1
R3- 5-2-1
R4- 2-1-4
R5- 2-1-4
R6- 8-4-7
R7- 6-2-5
R8- 1-5-6 (BEST BET)
R9- 2-6-4
R10- 1-3-8
R11- 9-1-4
R12- 4-3-6
R13- 9-7-3
R14- 8-4-6





YONKERS

R1- 6-1-3
R2- 2-1-3
R3- 5-4-2
R4- 1-5-2 (BEST BET)
R5- 2-3-4
R6- 2-1-4
R7- 1-4-2
R8- 1-2-5
R9- 5-3-2
R10- 5-3-2
R11- 5-2-1
R12- 2-4-1





NORTHFIELD

R1- 6-3-2
R2- 5-4-2
R3- 6-1-5
R4- 5-1-3
R5- 2-7-1
R6- 1-5-4
R7- 2-3-1
R8- 1-4-3
R9- 7-3-1
R10- 5-2-7
R11- 2-5-4
R12- 3-8-4
R13- 3-8-5
R14- 1-3-4 (BEST BET)
R15- 3-4-7 (BEST BET)

[willphorse]

Harrahs Race 4 selection is 1-3-7
Harrahs Race 11 selection is 7-1-3

1A Entries... I just copied selections and didn't notice. I apologize

[MutuelClerk]

Pocono must pay p5 tonight. Hopefully 500k in the pot. .20 punch.

14678/9/1234/37/178 24.00

[willphorse]

RESULTS


HARRAHS PHILADELPHIA

R1- 1-7-8
R2- 6-8-2....6 WINS $2.80
R3- 3-5-1...5 WINS $3.40
R4- 1-3-7...1 WINS $3.40
R5- 5-2-1...2 WINS $16.80
R6- 2-7-3...2 WINS $2.40
R7- 2-5-3...5 WINS $7.00
R8- 1-4-2...4 WINS $4.40
R9- 4-1 (10 SCRATCHED)...1 WINS $15.60
R10- 6-2-3
R11- 7-1-3
R12- 7-6-3
R13- 3-2-8...3 WINS $6.20
R14- 7-1-5...7 WINS $3.00




POCONO

R1- 2-7-3
R2- 8-3-1...3 WINS $7.20
R3- 5-2-1
R4- 2-1-4
R5- 2-1-4...1 WINS $9.60
R6- 8-4-7...4 WINS $10.80
R7- 6-2-5...6 WINS $7.00
R8- 1-5-6...6 WINS $9.40
R9- 2-6-4
R10- 1-3-8...1 WINS $5.20
R11- 9-1-4...9 WINS $4.20
R12- 4-3-6...4 WINS $3.40
R13- 9-7-3
R14- 8-4-6...6 WINS $24.20





YONKERS

R1- 6-1-3...3 WINS $9.80
R2- 2-1-3...3 WINS $6.70
R3- 5-4-2
R4- 1-5-2...1 WINS $5.80
R5- 2-3-4
R6- 2-1-4...1 WINS $15.60
R7- 1-4-2
R8- 1-2-5...1 WINS $3.00
R9- 5-3-2...5 WINS $4.70
R10- 5-3-2...3 WINS $4.80
R11- 5-2-1...1 WINS $5.00
R12- 2-4-1...2 WINS $4.40





NORTHFIELD

R1- 6-3-2...6 WINS $6.40
R2- 5-4-2...5 WINS $3.40
R3- 6-1-5
R4- 5-1-3...3 WINS $12.40
R5- 2-7-1...2 WINS $2.80
R6- 1-5-4...4 WINS $4.40
R7- 3-1 (2 SCRATCHED)...1 WINS $9.60
R8- 1-4-3...4 WINS $8.40
R9- 7-3-1...3 WINS $6.40
R10- 5-2-7...5 WINS $6.20
R11- 2-5-4...2 WINS $4.20
R12- 3-8-4...8 WINS $14.20
R13- 3-8-5
R14- 1-3-4...1 WINS $3.00
R15- 3-4-7...3 WINS $2.40



Top Selection- 36% Winners, Flat Bet Loss though
Top 2 Selections- 62% Winners (Betting top 2 to win -$2.30)
Top 3 Selections- 75% Winners, Once again Negative Flat Bet


Seems as though top 3 selections have the winner included a great percentage, however, it is fairly well distributed among the 3 selections (20-55, 14-55, 7-55). Might be a better tool than straight selections. If the top 3 could be handicapped and narrowed to 2, this might offer some value!

[timtam]

The winner of the last race at Pocono Downs and paid over $24 was

actually the mother of Gunrunner :)

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

I also omitted that longshot in the last race from my ticket. Clearly a set up. The horse had been dropping precipitously with no moves until it hit bottom. Anyone who did not play the horse knew they wuz een beeeeeg trubblez when he left the gate.

The overbet double payout (second choice) should have been an indicator. Alas, I ignored it.

Won easily.

Ah well, now that the mandatory payout is over, back to ignoring Pocono with their outrageous takeouts and miniscule handles.

[Stick]

Will

Do horses that have a bigger advantage in the software perform better? Maybe a larger gap between the first and second horse? You might have less plays but stronger results.

[Ray2000]

Will
I wouldn't you to change some factors until you have a sufficient number of results to believe "It's not just chance."

Here's an Excel spreadsheet that shows the number of races you need for a specific Strike rate, Level of Confidence and acceptable Margin of error.

This works fine for Win % but can't be used for ROI, the payoffs aren't normally distributed.

Let me know if it's hard to follow, I made it for my own use long ago.

Best of luck with your project.

[willphorse]

First and foremost, Ray, Thank you for the excel file. I am sure you have a ton of these excel files, as I am great with excel, but have never seen somebody as good or efficient with excel and stats as you. I appreciate your expertise!

Stick, It usually does seem to be the case, however, for the readout to have significant advantage, it seems as though the payout is very low. What I am beginning to find is that Horses ranked 3rd and 4th are "Live Longshots". They win far less, however, am beginning to be able to be able to indicate a race where the top selection or top 2 selections are weak. These races where 3rd or 4th selection wins, the Win payoff and Exactas are very inflated.