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View Full Version : 2017 Woodward, a health parade.


luisbe
09-02-2017, 07:00 PM
Gun Runner has in front of him, BCC, Pegasus and Dubai. Might be the most money earner, providing Arrogate don't step up from last 2 races.

Grits
09-03-2017, 09:26 AM
Could watch Gun Runner do what he loves.... all day and night. Watched him on NBCSN, and have watched the replay a dozen times. That head's low and he's just wrapped up with talent and smarts.

142 TFUS figure

Then, the chart. Go read the chart, gentlemen.

under his own power

hand drive

outcome in no doubt

Someone said to me, "Neolithic is no Arrogate or Collected."

I'm thinking .... right, dude, he's not. However, Gun Runner's done nothing but win (the last three G1 races he's entered), while Arrogate's done nothing but lose. His racing career's been left in the desert. Like most of Baffert's other Dubai runners. :pound:

I still love racing when I see a performance like yesterday's.

Tom
09-03-2017, 10:04 AM
Sets up for a few more small field, unplayable races.

dilanesp
09-03-2017, 01:34 PM
Could watch Gun Runner do what he loves.... all day and night. Watched him on NBCSN, and have watched the replay a dozen times. That head's low and he's just wrapped up with talent and smarts.

142 TFUS figure

Then, the chart. Go read the chart, gentlemen.

under his own power

hand drive

outcome in no doubt

Someone said to me, "Neolithic is no Arrogate or Collected."

I'm thinking .... right, dude, he's not. However, Gun Runner's done nothing but win (the last three G1 races he's entered), while Arrogate's done nothing but lose. His racing career's been left in the desert. Like most of Baffert's other Dubai runners. :pound:

I still love racing when I see a performance like yesterday's.

He made nothing of beating nothing at 1 1/8 miles.

I think the Baffert horses are stronger than you think they are, especially at 10 furlongs. That's what makes horse racing. But obviously, if Baffert doesn't bring his A game, Gun Runner is super-sharp and would become the one to beat.

cj
09-03-2017, 01:40 PM
He made nothing of beating nothing at 1 1/8 miles.

I think the Baffert horses are stronger than you think they are, especially at 10 furlongs. That's what makes horse racing. But obviously, if Baffert doesn't bring his A game, Gun Runner is super-sharp and would become the one to beat.

I was impressed with how he tracked a quick pace like it was nothing and just kept right on going. Arrogate on his A game is obviously a serious contender, but I don't think he'd have much problem with the others. I'm not sure any are pointing to the Classic anyway other than Collected and Arrogate. I think he beats Collected pretty easily.

CincyHorseplayer
09-03-2017, 02:02 PM
There was indeed nothing that could beat him in the race but the consummate ease and big fig he is clearly in his prime. Bring em on!

Grits
09-03-2017, 02:22 PM
I could watch it, again and again. Dilane, I understand, still, Arrogate's gotta bring it. There was improvement in his last, sure. But running the last 1/16th ain't gonna cut it against Gun Runner.

Asmussen shipping to Delmar will depend on the weather. I don't think he wants to wait too long, it's chilly upstate already.

I loved Larry's call!!! :)

http://www.nbcsports.com/video/gun-runner-destroys-field-woodward-stakes-saratoga

GMB@BP
09-03-2017, 02:22 PM
I was impressed with how he tracked a quick pace like it was nothing and just kept right on going. Arrogate on his A game is obviously a serious contender, but I don't think he'd have much problem with the others. I'm not sure any are pointing to the Classic anyway other than Collected and Arrogate. I think he beats Collected pretty easily.

Isnt it the dynamics of the race though, Gun Runner will have to keep Collected in check at the 3/8ths and I would imagine it is going to be a real pace.

of course I wont be shocked if Arrogate is sent out of the gate like the Travers.

cj
09-03-2017, 03:04 PM
Isnt it the dynamics of the race though, Gun Runner will have to keep Collected in check at the 3/8ths and I would imagine it is going to be a real pace.

of course I wont be shocked if Arrogate is sent out of the gate like the Travers.

I just don't think Collected poses a threat. Arrogate obviously does if the Travers version shows up, but who knows if he will?

CincyHorseplayer
09-03-2017, 06:32 PM
I could watch it, again and again. Dilane, I understand, still, Arrogate's gotta bring it. There was improvement in his last, sure. But running the last 1/16th ain't gonna cut it against Gun Runner.

Asmussen shipping to Delmar will depend on the weather. I don't think he wants to wait too long, it's chilly upstate already.

I loved Larry's call!!! :)

http://www.nbcsports.com/video/gun-runner-destroys-field-woodward-stakes-saratoga

I hope they prep him 10f in the JCGC.

JustRalph
09-03-2017, 07:58 PM
I noticed Gun Runner dropped his head a little on the back stretch, like he wasn't even in rhythm until then.

He might still improve? Can you imagine? After a 142?

Spalding No!
09-03-2017, 11:03 PM
I noticed Gun Runner dropped his head a little on the back stretch, like he wasn't even in rhythm until then.

He might still improve? Can you imagine? After a 142?
More likely is we just witnessed him peak. He swapped back to his wrong lead and mid stretch and lugged in towards the rail. The added furlong of the Classic will likely do him in, as it has done in the past. Furthermore, although he has a lot of Grade 1s listed by his name now, truth be told, he has yet to win a Grade 1 against a field worth of the ranking.

He has failed in every true major test he's participated in: Derby, Haskell, Travers, Breeders Cup, Dubai WC...

PoloUK6108
09-04-2017, 09:20 AM
Head down, neck out. This horse is determination embodied.

Tom
09-04-2017, 11:03 AM
I noticed Gun Runner dropped his head a little on the back stretch,

So did I. :(

dilanesp
09-04-2017, 11:19 AM
More likely is we just witnessed him peak. He swapped back to his wrong lead and mid stretch and lugged in towards the rail. The added furlong of the Classic will likely do him in, as it has done in the past. Furthermore, although he has a lot of Grade 1s listed by his name now, truth be told, he has yet to win a Grade 1 against a field worth of the ranking.

He has failed in every true major test he's participated in: Derby, Haskell, Travers, Breeders Cup, Dubai WC...

I'm not as negative as Spalding is on him, but this encapsulates a lot of my skepticism. This horse has yet to prove his class, and the Baffert horses are all proven at 1 1/4 miles while GR isn't.

Running a big speed figure at 9 furlongs against a Grade III type field in the Woodward doesn't establish he can do these things.

Secondbest
09-04-2017, 11:19 AM
More likely is we just witnessed him peak. He swapped back to his wrong lead and mid stretch and lugged in towards the rail. The added furlong of the Classic will likely do him in, as it has done in the past. Furthermore, although he has a lot of Grade 1s listed by his name now, truth be told, he has yet to win a Grade 1 against a field worth of the ranking.

He has failed in every true major test he's participated in: Derby, Haskell, Travers, Breeders Cup, Dubai WC...

I agree somewhat. I'm not saying he can't but he has yet to beat Arrogate at a mile and a quarter.

GMB@BP
09-04-2017, 11:41 AM
I agree somewhat. I'm not saying he can't but he has yet to beat Arrogate at a mile and a quarter.

The bottom line is, and I think everyone here knows it, if the real arrogate shows up he is gonna crush this horse...but the real showing up is not exactly a definite.

Spalding No!
09-04-2017, 12:15 PM
My main point is that the odds are, given the relatively heavy amount of racing he has done--which make no mistake is paltry by historical standards--, that Gun Runner has peaked with that Woodward performance rather than is continuing on some trajectory of progression that has no end.

Up to this point he is reminiscent of two other top older horses from a few years ago. Lemon Drop Kid went on a massive tear as a 4yo in which his speed figures improved each and every race, but he bottomed out noticeably in the Woodward (winning by a short head with an anemic Beyer) and exposed his decline definitively with an unplaced effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Lemon Drop Kid obviously had much more stamina than Gun Runner, but he's an example of the form cycle that I presume Gun Runner is on.

Lawyer Ron was much more similar in style to Gun Runner. A top regional Derby candidate (he won everything at Oaklawn that season), he failed twice at 10f at 3. He was sharp early at 4, had a minor mid season hiccup in the one turn Met Mile, then promptly came back to hand and romped in both the Whitney and Woodward. However, he couldn't see out 10f (or handle Curlin) in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and predictably wilted even further in the BC Classic.

The problem in proving any of this is that in all likelihood Gun Runner will forego another race before the BC. So there won't be any tangible evidence on paper if indeed the horse is tailing off. We'll have to rely on clockers reports, management decisions (e.g., cross enters in the Dirt Mile, missed workouts), and who knows what else.

This in general highlights the problem with light campaigns, "training up" to major targets, super trainers, and short fields. Past performances become irrelevant at best and untrustworthy at worse. Handicapping becomes less an intellectual exercise than it does a crap shoot or an "insider's game".

CincyHorseplayer
09-04-2017, 02:30 PM
As a not heavily raced horse and a 4yo who is IMO likely still physically maturing I don't think he has peaked. I think players are applying Arrogate's issues to him and they are two different horses. Arrogate IMO takes a while to get into his form cycle. Once there we saw his beast mode. This guy has the heart and is always there and could be growing into the peak of his racing career with maturity. This is what makes it a horse race! I love em both and don't see any real faults with either. I simply think one is a slow starter and the other is a slow maturer.

Fager Fan
09-04-2017, 02:42 PM
The horse this one reminds me of, who became quite good at 4 though being an also ran earlier, is Palace Malice.

For all those who think it was the track, I don't see how you can back Arrogate. I know Baffert had told people he wouldn't lose again after the San Diego, and he lost again. So maybe whatever is wrong is out of Baffert's hands.

I'll be pulling for Gun Runner.

Mulerider
09-04-2017, 03:00 PM
I'm a big fan of both horses, but particularly GR. I'd love to see Arrogate return to form. I read a few days ago that he's dropped weight again, and Baffert wants to put it back on before he starts regular works again. Maybe one of the trainers on here can chime in with what causes some horses to drop weight after a race, while others don't. Does it mainly occur after an unusually strenuous effort?

Mule

Spalding No!
09-04-2017, 03:26 PM
The horse this one reminds me of, who became quite good at 4 though being an also ran earlier, is Palace Malice.
Palace Malice is another good example of my point. He was dropped in class from the Grade 1 races he competed in unsuccessfully in the latter half of his 3yo and came to hand in Grade 2s and Grade 3s early as a 4yo. He won one Grade 1 (one of just 2 in his career) and then imploded in the Whitney.

A lot of Gun Runner's appeal is dressed up. There's no getting around the fact that he has failed at 10f repeatedly and that somehow he'll be able to do it for the first time in the BC Classic. Even if you buy into his progression in speed between 8f-9f there is no guarantee that it confers progressive stamina as well.

For all those who think it was the track, I don't see how you can back Arrogate. I know Baffert had told people he wouldn't lose again after the San Diego, and he lost again. So maybe whatever is wrong is out of Baffert's hands.
Arrogate improved considerably with several weeks of training at Del Mar for the Pacific Classic versus none for the San Diego. Likewise, Baffert's whole barn has suddenly found a way to win during the latter half of the meet when odds-on favorites from the barn were getting buried in the first half.

Collected and Gun Runner have basically had there races all to themselves in terms of pace scenario, enjoying huge advantages every start. Theoretically in the Classic, just between those two--never mind any other speed that lines up--there is a huge clash to the point where they might cancel each other out.

The obvious beneficiary to such a development would obviously be a grinder type with a good finish. The most logical candidate would be Arrogate. So even an Arrogate that has lost a step could still win the BC Classic, maybe relying on a nice setup rather than enjoying a monopoly on sheer talent.

cj
09-04-2017, 04:03 PM
Palace Malice is another good example of my point. He was dropped in class from the Grade 1 races he competed in unsuccessfully in the latter half of his 3yo and came to hand in Grade 2s and Grade 3s early as a 4yo. He won one Grade 1 (one of just 2 in his career) and then imploded in the Whitney.

A lot of Gun Runner's appeal is dressed up. There's no getting around the fact that he has failed at 10f repeatedly and that somehow he'll be able to do it for the first time in the BC Classic. Even if you buy into his progression in speed between 8f-9f there is no guarantee that it confers progressive stamina as well.


Arrogate improved considerably with several weeks of training at Del Mar for the Pacific Classic versus none for the San Diego. Likewise, Baffert's whole barn has suddenly found a way to win during the latter half of the meet when odds-on favorites from the barn were getting buried in the first half.

Collected and Gun Runner have basically had there races all to themselves in terms of pace scenario, enjoying huge advantages every start. Theoretically in the Classic, just between those two--never mind any other speed that lines up--there is a huge clash to the point where they might cancel each other out.

The obvious beneficiary to such a development would obviously be a grinder type with a good finish. The most logical candidate would be Arrogate. So even an Arrogate that has lost a step could still win the BC Classic, maybe relying on a nice setup rather than enjoying a monopoly on sheer talent.

All of this is fine, but it really comes down to if you believe Gun Runner has gotten better and can now handle 10f, or if Arrogate can get back to his last year and early season this year form. The two will be the favorites by a mile and neither is worth betting IMO. That said, not sure I want any of the others either.

GMB@BP
09-04-2017, 04:14 PM
All of this is fine, but it really comes down to if you believe Gun Runner has gotten better and can now handle 10f, or if Arrogate can get back to his last year and early season this year form. The two will be the favorites by a mile and neither is worth betting IMO. That said, not sure I want any of the others either.

I see Arrogate at around 3/1, Gun Runner 2/1 and maybe Collected 4/1.

Maybe its 8/5 and 5/2 but I dont see Arrogate taking the same money he did last year and Gun Runner is going to have those guady wins on paper.

The bottom line is if Pacific Classic Arrogate shows up he has a good chance based on tripping out, if old Arrogate shows up at 10f he is going to jog against Gun Runner.

Spalding No!
09-04-2017, 04:24 PM
All of this is fine, but it really comes down to if you believe Gun Runner has gotten better and can now handle 10f, or if Arrogate can get back to his last year and early season this year form. The two will be the favorites by a mile and neither is worth betting IMO. That said, not sure I want any of the others either.
I think you said elsewhere that Gun Runner wouldn't have a problem handling Collected, but you must also think that Collected could at least push Gun Runner out of his comfort zone (which has been pretty cozy up to this point chasing and dueling with non-stakes winners in Grade 1s) and soften him up, especially at 10 furlongs.

In that respect, I'm not so sure Arrogate needs to regain his top form, which was miles better than anyone else. He just has to maintain a little bit better than Cigar did in 1996.

As far as anyone else, I'm at a loss. Keen Ice would need an epic pace meltdown and Good Samaritan would have to rebound somewhere to even deserve mention. West Coast is supposedly going to the Pennsylvania Derby, it will be interesting to see if he continues his streak. Even if he does, will Baffert point to the Classic or wait for the Clark and next season?

The race would get interesting if Coolmore and Godolphin tossed a top class 3yo in there...Churchill, Thunder Snow, and Barney Roy. Epicharis came back last month and ran 3rd in a stakes in Japan.

Tom
09-04-2017, 04:26 PM
Not much beyond the top two.
We have replaced the Handicap Division with the Handicapped Division.
Not much to get excited about.

GMB@BP
09-04-2017, 04:37 PM
Not much beyond the top two.
We have replaced the Handicap Division with the Handicapped Division.
Not much to get excited about.

I think its been a pretty interesting year in that division, starting with the Pegasus through the Pacific Classic.

The Saratoga older dirt races have been less than entertaining from a betting standpoint.

cj
09-04-2017, 05:03 PM
I think you said elsewhere that Gun Runner wouldn't have a problem handling Collected, but you must also think that Collected could at least push Gun Runner out of his comfort zone (which has been pretty cozy up to this point chasing and dueling with non-stakes winners in Grade 1s) and soften him up, especially at 10 furlongs.

In that respect, I'm not so sure Arrogate needs to regain his top form, which was miles better than anyone else. He just has to maintain a little bit better than Cigar did in 1996.

As far as anyone else, I'm at a loss. Keen Ice would need an epic pace meltdown and Good Samaritan would have to rebound somewhere to even deserve mention. West Coast is supposedly going to the Pennsylvania Derby, it will be interesting to see if he continues his streak. Even if he does, will Baffert point to the Classic or wait for the Clark and next season?

The race would get interesting if Coolmore and Godolphin tossed a top class 3yo in there...Churchill, Thunder Snow, and Barney Roy. Epicharis came back last month and ran 3rd in a stakes in Japan.

Collected won't go much faster than Neolithic did, if at all, but he'll offer up more of a fight. You're probably right about Arrogate. His last probably wins at 10f. I'm just not interested int the 7-5 or lower that he'll be, and same really goes for Gun Runner. If Gun Runner got in the 2-1 range or above I'd take it, but that probably won't happen. I know it won't happen with Arrogate.

cj
09-04-2017, 05:03 PM
I see Arrogate at around 3/1, Gun Runner 2/1 and maybe Collected 4/1.

Maybe its 8/5 and 5/2 but I dont see Arrogate taking the same money he did last year and Gun Runner is going to have those guady wins on paper.

The bottom line is if Pacific Classic Arrogate shows up he has a good chance based on tripping out, if old Arrogate shows up at 10f he is going to jog against Gun Runner.

There is less than 0% chance Arrogate will be 3-1.

dilanesp
09-04-2017, 05:23 PM
I think its been a pretty interesting year in that division, starting with the Pegasus through the Pacific Classic.

The Saratoga older dirt races have been less than entertaining from a betting standpoint.

I agree. Arrogate turning out to be beatable has made the division very interesting. It had looked like Snow White and the Seven Dwarves at the start of the year.

Afleet
09-04-2017, 10:09 PM
There is less than 0% chance Arrogate will be 3-1.

have to agree w/this. Arrogate under 2-1