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View Full Version : New "Jockey 7 Wager" at Kentucky Downs


VigorsTheGrey
08-31-2017, 03:38 AM
http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/more_racing_news/2017/08/27/new-jockey-bet-at-kentucky-downs.2798161

Dahoss9698
08-31-2017, 08:29 AM
One of the dumber ideas I've seen in awhile. The only good thing is a percentage of the wager goes to the PDJF.

VigorsTheGrey
08-31-2017, 01:24 PM
I think the bet is rather interesting...I have a jockey in mind already and he may go off at 10-1 each day...

He only has to win one of 5 days for at least a 100 percent return on my combined wagers...

What is so dumb about that...?

RedMeansGo
09-01-2017, 07:38 AM
Why limit it to jockeys? Can we get down on trainers, owners, groomers?

Agree with dahoss here, this is silly.

Lemon Drop Husker
09-01-2017, 07:55 AM
One of the dumber ideas I've seen in awhile. The only good thing is a percentage of the wager goes to the PDJF.

Sorry, but I don't get your complaint.

They are trying a new, different, and interesting idea. One that could create fan interest and more money into the game.

And yes, a percentage does go to the guys they/we/I will be wagering upon. Sounds like a win/win to me. :ThmbUp:

Dahoss9698
09-01-2017, 08:02 AM
Sorry, but I don't get your complaint.

They are trying a new, different, and interesting idea. One that could create fan interest and more money into the game.

And yes, a percentage does go to the guys they/we/I will be wagering upon. Sounds like a win/win to me. :ThmbUp:

My first question is why? Why do we need another wager? Are there not enough already?

If the goal is Fan interest I suggest teaching fans how to bet is a much better way of generating interest than a jockey bet.

I actually love betting on Kentucky Downs. One of my favorite meets of the year. I just won't be betting on jockeys.

Lemon Drop Husker
09-01-2017, 08:33 AM
My first question is why? Why do we need another wager? Are there not enough already?

If the goal is Fan interest I suggest teaching fans how to bet is a much better way of generating interest than a jockey bet.

I actually love betting on Kentucky Downs. One of my favorite meets of the year. I just won't be betting on jockeys.

Obviously it isn't for you.

Creating fan interest isn't about W/P/S or Exactas. It is about "interest". Find a single jockey for the next 7 races and root them on while enjoying friends, family, food, and the atmosphere.

But hey, damn them for trying something different. Everything else horse racing has done has created so much of a buzz we have to keep the newbies from spoiling our riches. We don't need to invent or find something new or different.

Dahoss9698
09-01-2017, 08:50 AM
Obviously it isn't for you.

Creating fan interest isn't about W/P/S or Exactas. It is about "interest". Find a single jockey for the next 7 races and root them on while enjoying friends, family, food, and the atmosphere.

But hey, damn them for trying something different. Everything else horse racing has done has created so much of a buzz we have to keep the newbies from spoiling our riches. We don't need to invent or find something new or different.

I'm for educating newbies. Educate them and then maybe they become followers of the sport.

You seem to be against educating and instead feel like following a jockey and enjoying the atmosphere will lead to people becoming followers.

Good luck with that.

Lemon Drop Husker
09-01-2017, 08:58 AM
I'm for educating newbies. Educate them and then maybe they become followers of the sport.

You seem to be against educating and instead feel like following a jockey and enjoying the atmosphere will lead to people becoming followers.

Good luck with that.

I've "educated" some of my most well to do and intelligent friends. They don't care. They are looking for an outlet of easy and don't want to have to go through the rigors of handicapping to find a winner or two.

Betting on a single jockey for 7 races is easy.

Dahoss9698
09-01-2017, 09:00 AM
I've "educated" some of my most well to do and intelligent friends. They don't care. They are looking for an outlet of easy and don't want to have to go through the rigors of handicapping to find a winner or two.

Betting on a single jockey for 7 races is easy.

So is betting on a name.

But I guess since educating your friends didn't work we should just forget the whole thing. Good idea!

Lemon Drop Husker
09-01-2017, 09:30 AM
So is betting on a name.

But I guess since educating your friends didn't work we should just forget the whole thing. Good idea!


Yes. Pretty much. That would be 95% of the people I know.

Hand them a racing form, or try to teach them little tidbits of handicapping is too much. Way too much work. Much easier to go to the casino and not have to think. Not too mention, they don't have to wait 30 minutes between races to push a button or take a hit in Blackjack.

Dahoss9698
09-01-2017, 09:35 AM
Yes. Pretty much. That would be 95% of the people I know.

Hand them a racing form, or try to teach them little tidbits of handicapping is too much. Way too much work. Much easier to go to the casino and not have to think. Not too mention, they don't have to wait 30 minutes between races to push a button or take a hit in Blackjack.

Interesting.

Do your friends play fantasy football?

Dahoss9698
09-01-2017, 09:49 AM
Looks like you guys are going to hold off betting on jockeys until Wednesday.

Lemon Drop Husker
09-01-2017, 09:54 AM
Interesting.

Do your friends play fantasy football?

Yep.

I do as well. So do 80% of the people that pay taxes.

Can I assume that you don't?

Dahoss9698
09-01-2017, 10:01 AM
Yep.

I do as well. So do 80% of the people that pay taxes.

Can I assume that you don't?

I do. I just find it odd they don't mind the thinking and work involved in fantasy football but can't be bothered to learn how to handicap.

cj
09-01-2017, 10:07 AM
Yes. Pretty much. That would be 95% of the people I know.

Hand them a racing form, or try to teach them little tidbits of handicapping is too much. Way too much work. Much easier to go to the casino and not have to think. Not too mention, they don't have to wait 30 minutes between races to push a button or take a hit in Blackjack.

People like this don't help racing. We need customers that are interested in handicapping.

Lemon Drop Husker
09-01-2017, 10:08 AM
People like this don't help racing. We need customers that are interested in handicapping.

Good luck with that endeavor. :ThmbUp:

cj
09-01-2017, 10:27 AM
Good luck with that endeavor. :ThmbUp:

I should hope so since the sport won't exist without gambling. Whatever is being done isn't working, and a jockey gimmick bet won't do much of anything either. Kentucky Downs is actually a great product on its own merits.

Lemon Drop Husker
09-01-2017, 10:54 AM
I should hope so since the sport won't exist without gambling. Whatever is being done isn't working, and a jockey gimmick bet won't do much of anything either. Kentucky Downs is actually a great product on its own merits.

The "sport" needs to attract the casual gambler, not the hardcore like us.

This is an information now, everything now society. Instant results are needed.

Attract the casual fan as best you can, because that is where the extra $'s will come from. And hopefully a few get hooked.

You really think a generation of 140 characters or less has the patience, much less interest, to get involved in 3 to 4 hour events with 8 to 10 opportunities?

alydar
09-01-2017, 12:00 PM
One of the dumber ideas I've seen in awhile. The only good thing is a percentage of the wager goes to the PDJF.

Hard to make everyone happy. Not sure what the problem is, a new idea, maybe it will work, maybe not. The idea of giving back t the jockey fund is nice. Like many things in life, if you don't like don't participate in it.

AltonKelsey
09-01-2017, 12:37 PM
Since you know who the jockeys are riding, how would the bet not be subject to 'handicapping'? :confused:

They have a bet like this in Hong Kong.

VigorsTheGrey
09-01-2017, 12:44 PM
Best to wait and see how it all plays out...Each day will be different odds for the Jockeys....Tyler and Flojoe likely to be favored some days but will be interesting to see what the odds spread is like...also is somewhat interesting how the morning line is made and the calculations of who might have a reasonable shot at beating the field selection....:popcorn:

Pensacola Pete
09-01-2017, 07:32 PM
The sportsbooks in Australia have been doing "The Jockey Challenge" at tracks for years, and it's a very popular bet.

exactatom
09-01-2017, 07:39 PM
While I will not play this wager, I do believe any new wager that helps eliminate the "barrier to knowledge entry" for newcomers is good for the sport. I see many people who go to the track for reasons other than to wager (social gathering, look at pretty horses, etc.). This type of wager could give them a chance to wager a little, win a bet and experience the cashing of a ticker and then possibly dive into the sport in more depth.

For those of you that have never been, Kentucky Downs is unlike any racetrack you will ever attend. Limited bleachers and seats so people back their vehicles to the rail. People enjoying the day tailgating. A racetrack of a unique configuration and undulating.

I try to drive over from St. Louis once a year to watch a card there.

Definitely worth the trip. Couple it with a round at PGA professional Kenny Perry's golf course and you have a great day trip.

uncbossfan
09-02-2017, 07:45 PM
This is a great bet. While I love to handicap, my parents when they go to the track don't. My mom loves Robby Alborado. She would love a bet like this and easily invest in this rather than skipping half the races like she does now. Her couple bucks won't save racing, but it is money the track would get that they aren't getting now and to me isn't that the whole point??

I can also see this as a very fun bet for tracks like Keeneland who get large groups down there for entertainment. We do all kinds of syndicates and I would love to be able to just tell our group one of our bigger bets is to root for jockey "X" in the last 7 races!

castaway01
09-02-2017, 11:08 PM
I do. I just find it odd they don't mind the thinking and work involved in fantasy football but can't be bothered to learn how to handicap.

It's because they grew up watching football and already think they're experts at it and know more than their team's head coach, while the past performances are a confusing jumble of numbers.

thaskalos
09-03-2017, 12:19 AM
It's because they grew up watching football and already think they're experts at it and know more than their team's head coach, while the past performances are a confusing jumble of numbers.

What about online poker? The young gamblers took to online poker like fish to water...and many young players soon reached a level of development which encouraged the publication of many poker books, whose level of sophistication dwarfed that showcased by the currently available horseplayer literature.

IMO...the young gamblers of today have proven conclusively that they are MORE than willing to thoroughly apply themselves in a new gambling game...assuming that they see a good-enough reason for doing so.

Tom
09-03-2017, 12:24 AM
It's because they grew up watching football and already think they're experts at it and know more than their team's head coach, while the past performances are a confusing jumble of numbers.

It doesn't help that the race itself rarely looks anything like the PPs....:rolleyes:

thaskalos
09-03-2017, 12:32 AM
It doesn't help that the race itself rarely looks anything like the PPs....:rolleyes:

When even the better handicappers out there start suspecting that "collusion" may exist among the jockeys of the premier racing meet in the country...then the game is in a tough spot indeed.

VigorsTheGrey
09-03-2017, 12:51 AM
When even the better handicappers out there start suspecting that "collusion" may exist among the jockeys of the premier racing meet in the country...then the game is in a tough spot indeed.


“It's a fool that looks for logic in the chambers of the human heart.”

Joel Coen (https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/90097.Joel_Coen), O Brother, Where Art Thou? (https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/684158)

VigorsTheGrey
09-03-2017, 01:28 AM
Now that Saturday was cancelled and shifted to Weds next week, I wonder if any jockey changes will occur as a result...I am thinking Florent Geroux may be up on a few more and the powers that be will have to recalc their Jockey 7 tables...

citygoat
09-03-2017, 04:50 PM
more uneducated dollars isn't really a bad thing

biggestal99
09-03-2017, 05:21 PM
They have a jockey bet in Hong Kong every racing day.

Yesterday winner predictably was Moreira. Huge shocker.

Allan

VigorsTheGrey
09-06-2017, 11:49 AM
Can anybody out there upload here what the morning line odds for the Jockey 7 bet? Would be interesting to see what the odds spread is...

ultracapper
09-06-2017, 11:59 AM
I'm for educating newbies. Educate them and then maybe they become followers of the sport.

You seem to be against educating and instead feel like following a jockey and enjoying the atmosphere will lead to people becoming followers.

Good luck with that.

If you can get them interested, they'll educate themselves. 90% of handicappers are 90% self educated. Newbies that ultimately get interested start buying the form the night before and start looking at it alone, start picking up things on their own.

Get them in the door and they'll either get hooked or not.

Racetrack Playa
09-06-2017, 12:18 PM
Can anybody out there upload here what the morning line odds for the Jockey 7 bet? Would be interesting to see what the odds spread is...
Hello Vigors, GL 2day, I found this-
https://www.kentuckydowns.com/content/1-racing/3-wagering/4-jockey7-wagering-rules/9-6-2017_jockey7_pps.pdf

green80
09-06-2017, 01:24 PM
actually this bet could require quite a bit of handicapping, looking at one jockey's mounts vs another. You need to handicap the horses, jockeys and a combination of both. Some jocks have more mounts, some ride lower odds horses, etc

VigorsTheGrey
09-06-2017, 02:51 PM
Preliminary contenders for Wednesday

Field
Robby
Tyler
Ricardo
Jose
Shaun

VigorsTheGrey
09-06-2017, 04:48 PM
http://www.brisnet.com/content/2017/09/bet-kentucky-downs-opening-day-2017/

VigorsTheGrey
09-06-2017, 04:53 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/hashtag/jockey7?src=hashtag_click

Lemon Drop Husker
09-06-2017, 07:12 PM
What about online poker? The young gamblers took to online poker like fish to water...and many young players soon reached a level of development which encouraged the publication of many poker books, whose level of sophistication dwarfed that showcased by the currently available horseplayer literature.

IMO...the young gamblers of today have proven conclusively that they are MORE than willing to thoroughly apply themselves in a new gambling game...assuming that they see a good-enough reason for doing so.

Poor comparison.

Online poker players could play thousands of hands a day, playing 2 to 8 games at a time to gain experience. Little doubt they brought a new age of aggressiveness to the game, but they also brought a lot of shooting stars that faded away quickly.

You can't be ultra-aggressive in horse racing or you'll die a quick death. You can't bet more to scare people away, cause all that does is lower your own odds. You actually have to beat people by selecting better horses, races, and spots, and not just getting hot cards, or on a roll, or playing steamrolling poker.

Lemon Drop Husker
09-06-2017, 07:16 PM
Thought KD did this new wager very poorly.

Started in R4, and while they had massive hype leading up to that race, they couldn't even offer up a scoreboard for races after it commenced.

Should have been an easy scoreboard to total, and then highlight from race to race.

Hopefully they can learn and adjust, but that wasn't good. Not good at all.

By the way, does anybody even know the payout for the wager?

Jeff P
09-06-2017, 07:53 PM
The full chart isn't out yet as I type this.

That said, based on adding totals in my head for each race as shown on one of the adw sites where I have an account:

It looks like the new jockey wagers handled about $8k in total on a day when the rest of the card handled better than $4 mil.

At first glance it also looks like every exacta pool was waaay bigger than every win pool. (A real departure vs. other tracks that have much higher exacta takeout.)


-jp

.

Lemon Drop Husker
09-06-2017, 08:26 PM
Just saw it.

Confusing to say the least. And nothing in the payouts.

Not sure they have the math right. Then again, not likely much money in the pool.

Hopefully they can learn and get better on it, or it will die a quick death.

VigorsTheGrey
09-06-2017, 08:33 PM
Preliminary contenders for Wednesday

Field
Robby
Tyler
Ricardo
Jose
Shaun

Looks my top 3 selections comprised the trifecta...:)

Field #14
Robby #1
Tyler #4
Ricardo #12
Jose #13
Shaun #2

$1.00 Jockey Challenge EXACTA 4-14
40.20

$2.00 Jockey Challenge PLACE 14
9.00

$2.00 Jockey Challenge PLACE 4
6.80

$2.00 Jockey Challenge SHOW 1
3.00

$2.00 Jockey Challenge SHOW 14
4.80

$2.00 Jockey Challenge SHOW 4
4.80

$0.50 Jockey Challenge TRIFECTA 4-14-1
124.85

$2.00 Jockey Challenge WIN 4
17.80

VigorsTheGrey
09-07-2017, 12:39 PM
http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/sm_files/Kentucky_Downs_2017_Jockey_Wager2.pdf

http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/index.html

VigorsTheGrey
09-07-2017, 03:47 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/KYDownsRacing

VigorsTheGrey
09-07-2017, 09:07 PM
Julian 1st
Field 2nd
Tyler 3rd

$1.00 Jockey Challenge EXACTA 10-14
22.90
$2.00 Jockey Challenge PLACE 10
6.00
$2.00 Jockey Challenge PLACE 14
5.00
$2.00 Jockey Challenge SHOW 10
3.60
$2.00 Jockey Challenge SHOW 14
2.60
$2.00 Jockey Challenge SHOW 3
3.40
$0.50 Jockey Challenge TRIFECTA 10-14-3
74.65
$2.00 Jockey Challenge WIN 10
13.20

VigorsTheGrey
09-07-2017, 09:10 PM
http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/sm_files/Kentucky_Downs_2017_Jockey_Wager2.pdf

VigorsTheGrey
09-07-2017, 11:39 PM
http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/sm_files/Kentucky_Downs_2017_Jockey_Wager2.pdf

Anybody understand and can explain to me how the morning line odds maker at Kentucky Downs made Julien Leparoux the 7/2 favorite today...?

I think it has something to do with calculating a binomial distribution but I would like to understand exactly how he arrived at Juliens' odds line, as well as the others...

It might involve multiplying the morning line odds of all his mounts together using this binomial calculator

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

Any stats and probability buffs out there to explain in laymans terms, and so I can do the calc in the future...?

Poindexter
09-09-2017, 02:44 AM
Anybody understand and can explain to me how the morning line odds maker at Kentucky Downs made Julien Leparoux the 7/2 favorite today...?

I think it has something to do with calculating a binomial distribution but I would like to understand exactly how he arrived at Juliens' odds line, as well as the others...

It might involve multiplying the morning line odds of all his mounts together using this binomial calculator

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

Any stats and probability buffs out there to explain in laymans terms, and so I can do the calc in the future...?

What does binomial distribution have to do with this? Binomial distribution just tells you what his percent will be of hitting say 1 of 6 winners or 2 of 6 winners...Doesn't this bet give points for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th....

The way I would approach this is to basically look at each horse and assume he will finish as I rank him. So if the first horse Geroux is on is my 3rd choice, I would score him as coming 3rd...........go through every horse on every jockey and I would have my own estimated projected score. Once I have a projected score on each jockey, it should not be hard to spot value if there is any.

Poindexter
09-09-2017, 04:18 AM
I am going to back off my previous post a bit because I honestly do not like the way the bet is graded. The scoring is as follows.

Under the points system, a win is worth 25 points, second is 12, third is nine and fourth is five, with one point awarded for a late scratch or if a horse is declared a non-starter.


Basically if your jockey doesn't win a race your a basically toast. So perhaps you may want to consult binomial distribution tables just to factor in the chances of each jockey winning 1 or 2 races(using either your own oddsline or the morning line) . If that probability is too low, toss the jockey. I do think that if you use the estimated score method I talked about in my prior post, you typically will have a solid jockey that will have a reasonable chance of winning at least one race.

VigorsTheGrey
09-09-2017, 10:47 PM
4 Field 7.20, 3.00, 2.20
3 Florent Geroux 14.00, 8.40
6 Brian Hernandez, Jr. 4.00
$1 Exacta 51.60
$1 trifecta 273.10

VigorsTheGrey
09-09-2017, 10:52 PM
The Jockey Challenge Wager is not available to bet in many places.....that is probably why the handle for this is so low:rant:

Jeff P
09-10-2017, 11:34 AM
Kentucky Downs handled better than $8.5 million on yesterday's card.

But they only handled about $10k in total for the new jockey wagers.

Methinks players are responding well to the other more traditional wagers because they actually like big fields and reasonable exacta takeout. :headbanger:



-jp

.

upthecreek
09-10-2017, 05:54 PM
https://twitter.com/KYDownsRacing/status/906997523797114880

VigorsTheGrey
09-10-2017, 08:33 PM
http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/sm_files/jockey7_91017.jpg

Win Jose Lezcano
Place the Field
Show Jose Ortiz
$1.00 Jockey Challenge EXACTA 10-14
47.00
$2.00 Jockey Challenge PLACE 10
14.20
$2.00 Jockey Challenge PLACE 14
5.40
$2.00 Jockey Challenge SHOW 10
6.80
$2.00 Jockey Challenge SHOW 12
3.20
$2.00 Jockey Challenge SHOW 14
2.10
$0.50 Jockey Challenge TRIFECTA 10-14-12
153.15
$2.00 Jockey Challenge WIN 10
15.40

VigorsTheGrey
09-10-2017, 08:39 PM
Is this bet offered any place other than at Kentucky Downs itself...?

The pool sizes are so low that it is reasonable to expect that no other place offers it.

Dahoss9698
09-10-2017, 09:18 PM
Is this bet offered any place other than at Kentucky Downs itself...?

The pool sizes are so low that it is reasonable to expect that no other place offers it.

Of course other places are offering it. Aren't you betting it?

GMB@BP
09-10-2017, 09:53 PM
Kentucky Downs handled better than $8.5 million on yesterday's card.

But they only handled about $10k in total for the new jockey wagers.

Methinks players are responding well to the other more traditional wagers because they actually like big fields and reasonable exacta takeout. :headbanger:



-jp

.

maybe they should try carding some full field dirt races, me thinks we have enough full turf fields already in this country.

VigorsTheGrey
09-10-2017, 10:09 PM
Of course other places are offering it. Aren't you betting it?As far I I know California doesn't offer it at least....I would have like to bet it.

AstrosFan
09-10-2017, 11:58 PM
maybe they should try carding some full field dirt races, me thinks we have enough full turf fields already in this country.

I fully agree with that! I love dirt racing and the sounds they make when the track comes up sloppy!

AstrosFan
09-11-2017, 12:00 AM
The Jockey Challenge Wager is not available to bet in many places.....that is probably why the handle for this is so low:rant:


Same can be said for that "Racing 123" wager

If everyone can't play it, then why offer it?

I support new ideas, but this Jockey Wager is a bad one.

green80
09-11-2017, 06:57 AM
Twinspires is taking it.

Dahoss9698
09-11-2017, 07:36 AM
As far I I know California doesn't offer it at least....I would have like to bet it.

So all this and you aren't betting it?

:lol::lol::lol:

citygoat
09-11-2017, 10:40 AM
I pick four horses per race and then get the list of jockeys and put a point for each time they show up in my picks. Three highest are my boxed tri.

VigorsTheGrey
09-11-2017, 12:14 PM
So all this and you aren't betting it?

:lol::lol::lol:
Yep...I don't have ADW...it is possible to be interested in something without wagering....but I would have liked to bet it...maybe next year if it is still available, hopefully I will have ADW by then...take care.

Dahoss9698
09-11-2017, 12:39 PM
Yep...I don't have ADW...it is possible to be interested in something without wagering....but I would have liked to bet it...maybe next year if it is still available, hopefully I will have ADW by then...take care.
Cool....I guess I'm a little confused by this post

I think the bet is rather interesting...I have a jockey in mind already and he may go off at 10-1 each day...

He only has to win one of 5 days for at least a 100 percent return on my combined wagers...

What is so dumb about that...?

VigorsTheGrey
09-11-2017, 12:45 PM
Cool....I guess I'm a little confused by this post

That was before I learned that the wager is not available at California tracks or simulcast shops... I was surprised to learn that when I went to bet it on day 1...

VigorsTheGrey
09-13-2017, 09:29 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJpaXYIXkAAgLzj.jpg

VigorsTheGrey
09-14-2017, 10:18 PM
14 Field
12 Ortiz
6 Geroux

1.00 Jockey Challenge EXACTA 14-12
11.50
$2.00 Jockey Challenge PLACE 12
3.40
$2.00 Jockey Challenge PLACE 14
5.20
$2.00 Jockey Challenge SHOW 12
2.40
$2.00 Jockey Challenge SHOW 14
2.10
$2.00 Jockey Challenge SHOW 6
4.40
$0.50 Jockey Challenge TRIFECTA 14-12-6
33.10
$2.00 Jockey Challenge WIN 14
9.00