We're approaching harness racing territory

[cj]

https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/status/903005164453466112

[elhelmete]

I thought this was going to be about 1/4 split times! :D

[Jeff P]

When I first saw the thread title I halfway expected this to be about takeout. :rolleyes:



-jp

.

[JustRalph]

I thought this was going to be about 1/4 split times! :D

Exactly what I thought!!

[ultracapper]

I think DelMar is under 30% this meet. 28 is in my head for some reason.

[dilanesp]

I was hoping it would mean horses would run every week.

[cj]

Guess title could have been better, but does no one else find this alarming?

As someone said on Twitter, you can get 3.80 100% of the time betting sports and only have to beat one team...plus both teams have different coaches!

[Ruffian1]

Guess title could have been better, but does no one else find this alarming?

As someone said on Twitter, you can get 3.80 100% of the time betting sports and only have to beat one team...plus both teams have different coaches!


I do. It is terrible for the game.

[dilanesp]

Guess title could have been better, but does no one else find this alarming?

As someone said on Twitter, you can get 3.80 100% of the time betting sports and only have to beat one team...plus both teams have different coaches!

Jokes aside, obviously this could just be short term variance. But if the trend holds, yes it's bad.

[elhelmete]

I do. It is terrible for the game.

Nothing kills a fun day at the track for me more than waiting 25 minutes between nine races to see $5.20 winners and $9.80 exactas in a row.

[Track Phantom]

Jokes aside, obviously this could just be short term variance. But if the trend holds, yes it's bad.

It's not a short term thing. In fact, I would say it's likely that it's the start of a trend going in the wrong direction.

What the 38% winning favorites stat doesn't mention is that of the remaining 62% winners, a massive number is either the 2nd favorite or a horse bet down dramatically from the morning line (4-1 winner from a 12-1 morning line).

The combination of performance enhancing drugs, technological sophistication (ability to manipulate pools, toteboard, betting patterns, etc.) and quicker, more robust data for players has cannibalized the pools.

There was a time when I would show up at the track, see my horse at 10-1 on the board from a 5-1 morning line and get excited.

[ReplayRandall]

I think DelMar is under 30% this meet. 28 is in my head for some reason.

Del Mar favorites thru 8-27:

Races- 263

Wins- 72

Win%- 27.38

ROI- just under .70

[ldiatone]

IMHO mayb its time to go back and re think what Dick Mitchell stated. and Bill hellers book OVERLAY OVERLAY. in this period of handicapping with simulcasting i do think its difficult to play 1-2 tracks a day and and "know thy track". so mitchell explains concentrate on what distances and surfaces one has won and is good at. for me 7f. and i guess to make money one has to spend some money. buy 5-6 tracks a day and wait for those races. or as bill h. talks about (if i remember) concentrate on the place horse. keep records. try to isolate the false fav. now i know most of you ladies and men know most of these ideas, just reminding.

[Big Russ]

IMHO mayb its time to go back and re think what Dick Mitchell stated. and Bill hellers book OVERLAY OVERLAY. in this period of handicapping with simulcasting i do think its difficult to play 1-2 tracks a day and and "know thy track". so mitchell explains concentrate on what distances and surfaces one has won and is good at. for me 7f. and i guess to make money one has to spend some money. buy 5-6 tracks a day and wait for those races. or as bill h. talks about (if i remember) concentrate on the place horse. keep records. try to isolate the false fav. now i know most of you ladies and men know most of these ideas, just reminding.

I would have to agree. I worked 10 tracks today, which is a pretty normal Saturday for me. Made 27 win bets, which is about my average rate of between 2.5 and 3 win wagers per card. I don't even bother looking at races that don't fall within my strength areas. End of race day, enter records, and then download races for next day. It's not exactly exciting, but it's what works for me.

[castaway01]

Jokes aside, obviously this could just be short term variance. But if the trend holds, yes it's bad.

It's not a trend, or at least not a short-term trend. Favorites won 36.7% in 2009 (per the DRF) and it continues to inch higher since then.