McCraken

[Mc990]

This horse has seemingly gone from overrated to vastly underrated. For my money, he's the most likely winner on Saturday. He covered more ground than Girvin (and quite a bit more than PJ) in the Haskell.... think about his Travers odds had everything been equal that day.

I haven't seen his TG figure for the Haskell yet but I imagine it wasn't a regression. He's taken consistent small steps forward and looks ready for a big one.

I admit there is a small lingering doubt that he really wants 10f but to me the odds more than compensate for it.

For as much talk as there has been about an evenly matched field, I feel like there are 6-7 easy tosses...


Good luck to all on what seems like a promising card... Plenty of "superstars" to send it in against.

[Spalding No!]

I admit there is a small lingering doubt that he really wants 10f but to me the odds more than compensate for it.
I don't think it's a small lingering doubt. McCraken has lost ground in the stretch in every race he's run beyond 8.5f, which also happens to be the only 3 losses of his career. He's suspect at 9f, never mind 10f.

I agree he's tempting because he's going from overlay to underlay, but he's as bad a hanger as Practical Joke, who opts for the Allen Jerkens at 7f this weekend.

[Mc990]

Yep , I can't argue with you on that point. His figures have been commensurate as he has progressed in distance though...

I'll choose to take the optimistic view that he missed training and was coming off an extended layoff for the Bluegrass, he caught slop and the worst part of the track in the derby and ran the better figure/race (girvin) in the Haskell.

The morning line is an abomination and there is a 0% chance he'll be 12-1 but even at 8-1, I think the value is there.

Good luck

[Spalding No!]

Yep , I can't argue with you on that point. His figures have been commensurate as he has progressed in distance though...

I'll choose to take the optimistic view that he missed training and was coming off an extended layoff for the Bluegrass, he caught slop and the worst part of the track in the derby and ran the better figure/race (girvin) in the Haskell.

I am curious to see how he'd do with a more crafted ride. He has made nothing but middle moves his whole career, and as it is evident that he cannot sustain his run beyond a furlong or so, perhaps a last minute approach would better serve him in distance races. Something akin to Girvin's Haskell or Irap's Ohio Derby.

On paper, the field is loaded with horses that like to engage the leaders early at the top of the stretch, but with a modest pace in the offing that strategy might result in a battle of attrition if the speed horse(s) has something in reserve.

If McCraken is amenable to restraint, then a final furlong surge might get him home on top.

[Robert Fischer]

He's a quality horse.

I've got McCraken right in that similar group of Gunnevera and Good Samaritan. He'll likely have an opportunity with a five horse flow/cavalry-charge that includes those two, as well as the high-ceiling West Coast, and the low-ceiling Girvin.

He's 12/1 ml which is the 2nd highest of those 5.

McCraken's Blue Grass was a lot stronger than it appears on the surface. He was better than Irap and similar to a very good performance from Practical Joke.

McCraken's Haskell was better than the winner, Girvin.

Those are two significant races, where the public is going to be slightly wrong about a horse, and that will help his value in a field like the Travers where there are so many choices.

The only thing that I haven't seen from McCraken is the talent to run a huge 'A' race. My personal gut feeling says that he's more of high-quality, trip-dependent type.

Have to include him, and keying him is definitely reasonable for someone who happens to like him.

[classhandicapper]

He's got a terrific turn of foot, but imo he's been moving too soon in some of his races. If they would sit and wait and then make last run I think he'd finish better.

[Bennie]

That is exactly what I told myself his last race. Thought he made his move a little too soon and that contributed to his getting caught before the wire. He was one of my derby horses and I have to use him somewhere in the Travers just because. Can't let him finally win and not have some action. Done this ...:bang:...too many times through the years.

[Afleet]

Yep , I can't argue with you on that point. His figures have been commensurate as he has progressed in distance though...

I'll choose to take the optimistic view that he missed training and was coming off an extended layoff for the Bluegrass, he caught slop and the worst part of the track in the derby and ran the better figure/race (girvin) in the Haskell.

The morning line is an abomination and there is a 0% chance he'll be 12-1 but even at 8-1, I think the value is there.

Good luck

I think he may be higher than 12-1

[Immortal6]

He's a quality horse.

I've got McCraken right in that similar group of Gunnevera and Good Samaritan. He'll likely have an opportunity with a five horse flow/cavalry-charge that includes those two, as well as the high-ceiling West Coast, and the low-ceiling Girvin.

He's 12/1 ml which is the 2nd highest of those 5.

McCraken's Blue Grass was a lot stronger than it appears on the surface. He was better than Irap and similar to a very good performance from Practical Joke.

McCraken's Haskell was better than the winner, Girvin.

Those are two significant races, where the public is going to be slightly wrong about a horse, and that will help his value in a field like the Travers where there are so many choices.

The only thing that I haven't seen from McCraken is the talent to run a huge 'A' race. My personal gut feeling says that he's more of high-quality, trip-dependent type.

Have to include him, and keying him is definitely reasonable for someone who happens to like him.

What do you mean when you say that his Haskell was better than Girvins or his bluegrass was better than Iraps? I'm genuinely curious. There was a poster (may have been you) that said the same of Cloud Computing (his race in the Wood Memorial) before he won the Preakness. Were there track biases or did he just travel more ground than the eventual winners?

Trip handicapping is certainly not in my wheelhouse so I would love to get some insight into how yourself and others might diagnose the Haskell and Bluegrass.

[Robert Fischer]

What do you mean when you say that his Haskell was better than Girvins or his bluegrass was better than Iraps? I'm genuinely curious. There was a poster (may have been you) that said the same of Cloud Computing (his race in the Wood Memorial) before he won the Preakness. Were there track biases or did he just travel more ground than the eventual winners?

Trip handicapping is certainly not in my wheelhouse so I would love to get some insight into how yourself and others might diagnose the Haskell and Bluegrass.
Just a matter of trying to handicap a past performance without over-emphasizing the result.

The Haskell was fairly straight forward. The speeds (Timeline, Battle of Midway, Irish War Cry) stopped, and the 3 stretch-runners (McCraken, Girvin, Practical Joke) capitalized.
McCraken probably did a little more running.
He was wider on the far turn, and he moved first.

The Blue Grass is more subjective and a lot less straight-forward.
There was a lot going on between the derby-points/prep tactics, some minor trouble, and the race flow.
The race flow was the most significant.
The pace held together extremely well. No one could really gain, or pass anyone in the stretch, in spite of Irap failing to change leads and not visually appearing to be moving well.
McCraken had some minor trouble at the start, and then was ridden a bit passively approaching the far turn. He ran visually well, but he was against the grain of an extreme race flow.

[classhandicapper]

Just a matter of trying to handicap a past performance without over-emphasizing the result.

The Haskell was fairly straight forward. The speeds (Timeline, Battle of Midway, Irish War Cry) stopped, and the 3 stretch-runners (McCraken, Girvin, Practical Joke) capitalized.
McCraken probably did a little more running.
He was wider on the far turn, and he moved first.

The Blue Grass is more subjective and a lot less straight-forward.
There was a lot going on between the derby-points/prep tactics, some minor trouble, and the race flow.
The race flow was the most significant.
The pace held together extremely well. No one could really gain, or pass anyone in the stretch, in spite of Irap failing to change leads and not visually appearing to be moving well.
McCraken had some minor trouble at the start, and then was ridden a bit passively approaching the far turn. He ran visually well, but he was against the grain of an extreme race flow.

He also ran a deceptively well in the Derby with a strong wide middle move.

I played him in the Haskell (also thought he was best) and still feel kind of "married" to him on some level. But I'm not sure he's good enough to win tomorrow at 10F and I generally don't like playing horses that were with the flow and bias last time the way he was. I'll have him on some tickets though because I think he's very talented and don't want to watch him beat me out of everything after being high on him for awhile.

[Tom]

McCracken - my first throw out.
The horse has no heart. He couldn't seal the deal with duct tape.
One turn mile, tops.

Probably not at Gr1 either.

The biggest impact he will have on the race will when he throws in the towel, again, late.

[burnsy]

I think Girvin is the live horse from the Haskell. Yes, Mccraken went a little wide but he got first jump on a fast track and still got collared, at a shorter distance.

Girvin has bounced back from a roughed up Derby trip to run well twice now. As far as consistency goes, which many of these don't have. He has run his race every time with the exception of the Derby. If he can get the extra distance today, he should be tough. i'll admit the distance may be a problem but if he gets it, he'll be tough at a square price.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SqC_m3yUDU

[classhandicapper]

I think Girvin is the live horse from the Haskell. Yes, Mccraken went a little wide but he got first jump on a fast track and still got collared, at a shorter distance.


I don't think getting first jump was an advantage at MTH that day the way the track was playing and that way race setup. IMO, his bigger problem is getting 10F and the fact that field is loaded with a bunch of horses with similar or potentially more ability.