Travers

[Afleet]

Doesn't get much better than this. Who do you like?



Cloud Computing 8-1
Giuseppe the Great 20-1
West Coast 4-1
Tapwrit 7-2
Good Samaritan 5-1
Girvin 10-1
Always Dreaming 6-1
Lookin at Lee 30-1
McCraken 12-1
Irap 8-1
Gunnevera 20-1
Fayeq 30-1

[PhantomOnTour]

Are the pp's out yet?

[Afleet]

Are the pp's out yet?

Just Equibase, DRF tomorrow

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SNPP-SAR-20170826-545246

[dilanesp]

I like Good Samaritan. I bet him in the Derby future book in Vegas last December. He's an excellent dirt horse and the Jim Dandy was no fluke.

[SG4]

Doesn't get much better than this. Who do you like?



Cloud Computing 8-1
Giuseppe the Great 20-1
West Coast 4-1
Tapwrit 7-2
Good Samaritan 5-1
Girvin 10-1
Always Dreaming 6-1
Lookin at Lee 30-1
McCraken 12-1
Irap 8-1
Gunnevera 20-1
Fayeq 30-1




I'm not knocking the ML cause I cannot make heads or tails over what the actual betting will be like, but does anyone think Tapwrit will actually be favored? Think we're going to see a situation similar to the Alabama where the top 4 betting interests were within .30 of each other on the tote board.

[Immortal6]

Without poring over pp's Good Sam and Irap.

[Afleet]

I'm not knocking the ML cause I cannot make heads or tails over what the actual betting will be like, but does anyone think Tapwrit will actually be favored? Think we're going to see a situation similar to the Alabama where the top 4 betting interests were within .30 of each other on the tote board.

Think Girvin would be lower and Cloud Computing higher. I wouldn't take 15-1 on Cloud Computing; been wrong before.

[Afleet]

Without poring over pp's Good Sam and Irap.

that's how I see it-hope you are right

[Afleet]

I'm not knocking the ML cause I cannot make heads or tails over what the actual betting will be like, but does anyone think Tapwrit will actually be favored? Think we're going to see a situation similar to the Alabama where the top 4 betting interests were within .30 of each other on the tote board.

Elate dropped from 6-1 to 4-1 w/0 minutes to post-seems hard to believe

[VigorsTheGrey]

West Coast and Good Samaritan

[menifee]

I have a really strong opinion in this race. Irap. He is the only 3yo that has really improved throughout the year. This horse is old school. He's gotten better because he's raced a lot. I was not a big fan of his in the beginning. He seemed like a big goofball. But if you really watch his last few races, he's really matured. He's changing leads correctly, he's become a more mature horse and not just racing on talent alone. Have any of these other horses gotten better throughout the year?

The wild card is Good Samaritan. I, too, had a Derby future bet on him. His injury early in the year set him back and he could never find the dirt. He's the wild card, but after watching his races this year, I have this feeling that he might be best at a mile and an eighth and not a mile and a quarter.

The other horses in this race don't excite me. McCracken doesn't want to go this far. Always Dreaming has lost his form. I suspect the same about CC. Many of the others are not fast enough or don't want this distance.

[Immortal6]

I have a really strong opinion in this race. Irap. He is the only 3yo that has really improved throughout the year. This horse is old school. He's gotten better because he's raced a lot. I was not a big fan of his in the beginning. He seemed like a big goofball. But if you really watch his last few races, he's really matured. He's changing leads correctly, he's become a more mature horse and not just racing on talent alone. Have any of these other horses gotten better throughout the year?

The wild card is Good Samaritan. I, too, had a Derby future bet on him. His injury early in the year set him back and he could never find the dirt. He's the wild card, but after watching his races this year, I have this feeling that he might be best at a mile and an eighth and not a mile and a quarter.

The other horses in this race don't excite me. McCracken doesn't want to go this far. Always Dreaming has lost his form. I suspect the same about CC. Many of the others are not fast enough or don't want this distance.

Irap's improvement from his lackluster performance in the Sunland Derby to the Bluegrass is what made me a believer. If you look at the horses he has beat in his last two races and what those horses have went on to do after; his resume might be the best of the bunch.

[ultracapper]

I wonder if CJ might share how the Jim Dandy came back on his ratings. When I watched that race there was something I liked about the KD winner, but then looking at the clock afterwards, well, it took some of the shine off. I hate 5 horse races. I would bet rating makers have to split those small field races out as often as not.

[Robert Fischer]

Doesn't get much better than this. Who do you like?



Cloud Computing 8-1
Giuseppe the Great 20-1
West Coast 4-1
Tapwrit 7-2
Good Samaritan 5-1
Girvin 10-1
Always Dreaming 6-1
Lookin at Lee 30-1
McCraken 12-1
Irap 8-1
Gunnevera 20-1
Fayeq 30-1


Tapwrit has zero chance.

As a fan, you really want to like Cloud Computing. He's the quality horse, and he figures to improve with more of a stalking style and less of a pressing style. An efficient stalking trip is no guarantee (we could see a repeat of the poor decision to track/press that we saw in the Jim Dandy). Also have to consider that an efficient race from CC is not necessarily a dominant race.

West Coast is clearly dangerous. He is trained by team Baffert, and shown enough quality thus far. He's relatively unproven, and appears to be a touch on the 'sluggish' side (normally better for the 3rd/4th position), but his stamina advantage could put him in contention. He will be ridden with confidence, and should at least be a part of any late flow.

It would be a mild upset if Always Dreaming were to run a strong race. However, even in this high-quality Travers, there isn't much quality forwardly-placed speed in this race. He's got a puncher's chance if he were to run his 'A'. I fully expect him to be empty again in the stretch. Fayeq is a threat to press from the wide draw. Neither should be in the superfecta without a soft, pace-less race.

Irap looks like a trap. He's much more fun to root for, than to bet on. Would be a great story if he puts it all together, but it's more likely that he makes no impact. Their best hope probably involves attending the pace. Would be ironic, if Irap were to conservatively attend a slow pace, and then inherit a strong position, and actually change leads, while Always Dreaming stops and Fayeq sputters on the wrong lead.

McCraken, Gunnevera, Good Samaritan are all kind of in the same 'quality horse with style, trip dependent' category of horses that can fill out a trifecta or superfecta, or need things to fall apart. If it becomes a wide-open cavalry charge, these will likely at least be involved.

Girven is just a notch below the latter trio.

[Spalding No!]

I have a really strong opinion in this race. Irap. He is the only 3yo that has really improved throughout the year. This horse is old school. He's gotten better because he's raced a lot. I was not a big fan of his in the beginning. He seemed like a big goofball. But if you really watch his last few races, he's really matured. He's changing leads correctly, he's become a more mature horse and not just racing on talent alone. Have any of these other horses gotten better throughout the year?

The wild card is Good Samaritan. I, too, had a Derby future bet on him. His injury early in the year set him back and he could never find the dirt. He's the wild card, but after watching his races this year, I have this feeling that he might be best at a mile and an eighth and not a mile and a quarter.

The other horses in this race don't excite me. McCracken doesn't want to go this far. Always Dreaming has lost his form. I suspect the same about CC. Many of the others are not fast enough or don't want this distance.
To some degree, Irap has appeared to improve because his connections wisely opted out of the rest of the Triple Crown after his Derby dud and pointed to lesser prizes in the Midwest. True, he changed leads correctly in the Indiana Derby, but he had those rivals over a barrel and the race was only 8.5f. He ran on the wrong lead throughout the stretch of the Ohio Derby at 9f as he did in the 9f Blue Grass. Irap is just as suspect as 10f as the rest.

Girvin has shown a bit more improvement in my opinion. He had well documented soundness issues leading up to Derby and like Irap opted out of the rest of the classics. Barely a nostril separated those two in the Ohio Derby, but Girvin was given a curious ride by Mike Smith in that race. A confirmed closer at Fair Grounds, Girvin prompted the early pace and then moved inexplicably with nearly a 1/2 mile left to run to the lead while under pressure between horses. He was a sitting duck in the stretch for the well-held and patiently ridden Irap who never actually got the better of Girvin, simply winning the head bob to the line.

A justified rider switch was made next out and Girvin stepped up from the second tier Midwest targets to tackle a loaded field in the Haskell. Back to his closing style under Robby Albarado, he collared everyone in the shadow of the wire. The main knock is that he tagged two confirmed hangers (at a route of ground) in McCraken and Practical Joke.

[menifee]

To some degree, Irap has appeared to improve because his connections wisely opted out of the rest of the Triple Crown after his Derby dud and pointed to lesser prizes in the Midwest. True, he changed leads correctly in the Indiana Derby, but he had those rivals over a barrel and the race was only 8.5f. He ran on the wrong lead throughout the stretch of the Ohio Derby at 9f as he did in the 9f Blue Grass. Irap is just as suspect as 10f as the rest.

Girvin has shown a bit more improvement in my opinion. He had well documented soundness issues leading up to Derby and like Irap opted out of the rest of the classics. Barely a nostril separated those two in the Ohio Derby, but Girvin was given a curious ride by Mike Smith in that race. A confirmed closer at Fair Grounds, Girvin prompted the early pace and then moved inexplicably with nearly a 1/2 mile left to run to the lead while under pressure between horses. He was a sitting duck in the stretch for the well-held and patiently ridden Irap who never actually got the better of Girvin, simply winning the head bob to the line.

A justified rider switch was made next out and Girvin stepped up from the second tier Midwest targets to tackle a loaded field in the Haskell. Back to his closing style under Robby Albarado, he collared everyone in the shadow of the wire. The main knock is that he tagged two confirmed hangers (at a route of ground) in McCraken and Practical Joke.

Really good analysis - thank you for this. I do still think Irap is the play here especially if you can get 7-1 or better.

[Tom]

Roll the dice.
Who's turn is it?

[GMB@BP]

Roll the dice.
Who's turn is it?

yup

[cj]

There are some horses picking up real, meaningful weight for the Travers.

[cj]

I wonder if CJ might share how the Jim Dandy came back on his ratings. When I watched that race there was something I liked about the KD winner, but then looking at the clock afterwards, well, it took some of the shine off. I hate 5 horse races. I would bet rating makers have to split those small field races out as often as not.

Here is the chart for the race. To your question, don't really have a problem with small fields unless the pace gets silly, and that is actually less likely when the field is small in my opinion.

[Spalding No!]

There are some horses picking up real, meaningful weight for the Travers.
I never realized how paltry the weight assignments were for the Haskell. It used to be a handicap, but I presumed it was equal weights all these years. Knocks Girvin down a peg or two with the extra furlong to navigate.

[GMB@BP]

I never realized how paltry the weight assignments were for the Haskell. It used to be a handicap, but I presumed it was equal weights all these years. Knocks Girvin down a peg or two with the extra furlong to navigate.

whats nice is the Timeform figures have that built in, if you choose.

[cj]

whats nice is the Timeform figures have that built in, if you choose.

Yep, Girvin's 120 that you see in the charts is a 116 in the PPs if you have the weight setting turned on.

[f2tornado]

Race looks like a total crap shoot. I'm not a big Looking at Lee fan but if the horse is anywhere near the 30-1 ML then I'll take the punchers chance. Reminds me a little of Keen Ice and one of only a few in the race that hit the board at distance. Plan B; when in doubt, bet on Javier Castellano.

[olddaddy]

There are some horses picking up real, meaningful weight for the Travers.


You got me excited there for a moment. I thought you had access to the horses weight gain.

[n.c]

but will start by keying looking at lee and another horse or 2, plodders who might finish 4th or 3rd.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Great Travers. Really like this race, and it provides a great wagering opportunity.

I've liked this 3YO crop, and while we haven't seen a true star rise, this crop is pretty deep and talented.

Travers Day card is pretty damn special as well. 6G1s and a ton of big hitters in "their division" almost across the board except for the older males.

Interesting race that doesn't look to have much pace, and you'd have to be crazy to think Always Dreaming and Cloud Computing would look to set any kind of fractions after the Jim Dandy. And from there, you have NOBODY that wants to be on or even near the lead. Maybe Irap?

Kind of makes the newbie to the scene :12: Fayeq a little (and I mean a little) interesting. At least he has a win at the venue, and as a former $800K purchase, is he ready to show some game? Training well, and that 30/1 ML may well rise for a colt getting better as the distances increase.

[Afleet]

Roll the dice.
Who's turn is it?

agree w/this; so it may be Lookin at Lees turn

[jocko699]

Are the pp's out yet?

Great Card!!!!

[Spalding No!]

Kind of makes the newbie to the scene :12: Fayeq a little (and I mean a little) interesting. At least he has a win at the venue, and as a former $800K purchase, is he ready to show some game? Training well, and that 30/1 ML may well rise for a colt getting better as the distances increase.
Won both his races on the wrong lead under a hard drive. The only time he saw a sharp 6f fraction he crumpled like a cheap suit.

He's a bad gate horse, but by drawing the outside post he'll probably load last so he has that going for him, which is nice.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Won both his races on the wrong lead under a hard drive. The only time he saw a sharp 6f fraction he crumpled like a cheap suit.

He's a bad gate horse, but by drawing the outside post he'll probably load last so he has that going for him, which is nice.

Well, he is a 30/1 ML longest shot on the board for a reason or 12. :D

[Spalding No!]

Well, he is a 30/1 ML longest shot on the board for a reason or 12. :D
I would say he's a young Cinderella who's coming outta nowhere, but since he's regally bred and owned by royalty I guess not...

Sheik Shadwell: "Hey young fella...I was hoping you could squeeze in 10 furlongs on Saturday..."

Fayeq: "Uh...certainly your Eminency..."

[chuckster1968]

looking at lee will be closing like crazy watch out

[jahura2]

Great Card!!!!



Thanks for the file Jocko!

[FakeNameChanged]

I will play a 7-Always Dreaming/8-Lookin At Lee/3-West Coast exacta box just to improve my interest in watching the race. Graded stakes at this level are mostly fun to watch, but getting the winner in my case = total crap shoot.

[Robert Fischer]

Tapwrit has zero chance.

After looking more at the race, and looking at different ways that race flow may develop, Tapwrit may be involved, and get a good trip.

He could be somewhat forwardly placed and at least finish the 10f distance with energy.
It's quite possible that the race will be friendly to those who are forwardly placed. It would be reckless to commit to tossing Tapwrit.

In a forward-friendly flow, someone like Tapwrit or Irap or Cloud Computing seem like they would benefit.

West Coast looks very strong to me. I think he can move into contention, even if the finish is made from mostly forwardly-placed horses.

[Redboard]

Doesn't get much better than this. Who do you like?



Cloud Computing 8-1
Giuseppe the Great 20-1
West Coast 4-1
Tapwrit 7-2
Good Samaritan 5-1
Girvin 10-1
Always Dreaming 6-1
Lookin at Lee 30-1
McCraken 12-1
Irap 8-1
Gunnevera 20-1
Fayeq 30-1


This reminds me of handicapping a 2YrOld maiden race where you don't have the slightest idea of how anybody's going to run, so you pick the bottom third of the field.

After some thinking, i'm going to throw out the TC race winners and the Haskell winner, I just have a feeling that this will be the first year ever (at least that I can remember) where there will be five different three-year-olds that win the big five G1's (derby, preakness, belmont, haskell & travers). Am I wrong?

Also going to toss West Coast, because Baffert's Travers' record is horrible, notwithstanding arrogate. Leaning toward McCraken.

[GMB@BP]

This reminds me of handicapping a 2YrOld maiden race where you don't have the slightest idea of how anybody's going to run, so you pick the bottom third of the field.

After some thinking, i'm going to throw out the TC race winners and the Haskell winner, I just have a feeling that this will be the first year ever (at least that I can remember) where there will be five different three-year-olds that win the big five G1's (derby, preakness, belmont, haskell & travers). Am I wrong?

Also going to toss West Coast, because Baffert's Travers' record is horrible, notwithstanding arrogate. Leaning toward McCraken.

Point Given?

[andtheyreoff]

This reminds me of handicapping a 2YrOld maiden race where you don't have the slightest idea of how anybody's going to run, so you pick the bottom third of the field.

After some thinking, i'm going to throw out the TC race winners and the Haskell winner, I just have a feeling that this will be the first year ever (at least that I can remember) where there will be five different three-year-olds that win the big five G1's (derby, preakness, belmont, haskell & travers). Am I wrong?

Also going to toss West Coast, because Baffert's Travers' record is horrible, notwithstanding arrogate. Leaning toward McCraken.

Yes. 2013, 2011, 2000, 1996, and 1992, within recent memory, all had five different winners of those races.

[n.c]

has a win over the track..Mott not happy about losing his horses to Chad Brown..Mott said, he could have higher winning% if he is more selective with his races, but he runs his horses even if they have no shot to win(sometimes)

[Redboard]

Point Given?

Between Point Given and Arrogate he’s had quite a few flops. Just off the top of my head Liaison(finished 9th), Coil(10th), Bayern(10th), Roman ruler (3rd), and American Pharoah(2nd) the last four were Haskell winners who went off at low odds. You can correct me if I’m wrong (and I’ve been a lot of that lately ) but I believe Point Given and Arrogate were his only Traver’s wins.

[jocko699]

Thanks for the file Jocko!

Happy I can help!!!!:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[Afleet]

I can't figure this one out. Just guessing w/Good Samaritan, Irap, Gunnevera. Javier Castellano has won the Travers an unprecedented five times in just nine tries. His Win ROI in the race is a spectacular $11.17.

[Nitro]

Travers – Race 11

My Top 5 (Pre-tote analysis) in no special order.

PP - Entry – M/L....................Pace Breakdown
#3 - West Coast - 4-1…………………..….ON
#5 - Good Samaritan - 5-1……………….……..OFF
#6 - Girvin - 10-1……………………….......….……OFF
#9 - McCraken - 12-1…………………....…….….OFF
#10 - Irap - 8-1……………….……..…..…...ON

My Tosses –
#1 – Cloud Computing - 8-1……..MK
#2 - Giuseppe the Great - 20-1…………ON
#4 - Tapwrit - 7-2…………………….......….ON
#7 - Always Dreaming - 6-1….....MK
#8 - Lookin at Lee - 30-1…………………....….OFF
#11- Gunnevera - 20-1...........................OFF
#12 - Fayeq - 30-1………....………..MK – (O’Neils’s Rabbit)

[depalma113]

Fayeq, Irap, Good Samaritan and Gunnevera boxed in exacta, trifecta and superfecta.

[Secondbest]

West Coast is the only horse here who never ran against any of the others.Top trainer and rider. Taking him to win.

[Tom]

Three good thing about West Coast:

1. Baffert
2. Baffert
3. Baffert

[lamboguy]

they are going to break Travers Day handle today! they might shatter the old number too.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Three good thing about West Coast:

1. Baffert
2. Baffert
3. Baffert

Impossible. The most overrated rider on the planet will ride him 4 wide around the entire track like he is a 3/5 chalk. It is the only way he knows how to ride a horse.

[menifee]

Watched a lot of the works. Man, Good Samaritan looks really good. Still like Irap, but am betting GS as well.

[GMB@BP]

Impossible. The most overrated rider on the planet will ride him 4 wide around the entire track like he is a 3/5 chalk. It is the only way he knows how to ride a horse.

I agree, its why he can never win the big races

[Ocala Mike]

Extremely competitive Travers - boxing :1::3::5::10: in the exacta. Not my favorite betting race today.

[jefftune]

1982, the last time the Derby/Preakness/Belmont winners met in the Travers. Runaway Groom!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdBzg-B_1Ms

[dilanesp]

1982, the last time the Derby/Preakness/Belmont winners met in the Travers. Runaway Groom!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdBzg-B_1Ms

Jeff Fell's finest hour.

[Robert Fischer]

:3::10::1::7:

[GMB@BP]

Impossible. The most overrated rider on the planet will ride him 4 wide around the entire track like he is a 3/5 chalk. It is the only way he knows how to ride a horse.

good call, got any other brilliant thoughts

[depalma113]

Damn! Why didn't I go with Baffert instead of Good Samaritan. I would have scored huge. Oh well should of, could of...

[dilanesp]

So how many BC Classic horses does Baffert have now?

[Secondbest]

Tough to go against Baffert when he ships in on these big days. 4 for 4 on Belmont stakes day 2 for 3 today.

[SharpCat]

So how many BC Classic horses does Baffert have now?

1/2 of the starting gate :eek: Maybe he can get Mubtaahij ready in time.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

good call, got any other brilliant thoughts

Tarred and Feathered.

Couldn't be more wrong.

[GMB@BP]

Tarred and Feathered.

Couldn't be more wrong.

it happens.

I always thought of Mike as a speed rider, I think he would tell you that as well. Zenyatta threw that off good.

[Tom]

The West Coast is the Best Coast.
They know how to train them, they know how to ride them.

So much for the Triple Crown winners, Moe, Larry and Curly.
knuck knuck knuck.


What do these east coast guys need when Baffert comes to town?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

it happens.

I always thought of Mike as a speed rider, I think he would tell you that as well. Zenyatta threw that off good.

Just couldn't see the :3: getting the lead.

Great ride my Mike Smith. Gotta give him the appreciation he deserves with that one. Very well done.

[n.c]

is it because he was around 1/4 horses when he was small... does he have a extra feel for the animals, because he has been around animals since he was born??? ...1/4 horses have early speed, and majority of Baffert horses have early speed and they are not out of the race vs closer who needs perfection to win a race? Baffert may have the extra instinct that cannot be thought.

[GMB@BP]

is it because he was around 1/4 horses when he was small... does he have a extra feel for the animals, because he has been around animals since he was born??? ...1/4 horses have early speed, and majority of Baffert horses have early speed and they are not out of the race vs closer who needs perfection to win a race? Baffert may have the extra instinct that cannot be thought.

1. He gets very very talented horses
2. He has a very good team with Jim and Dana Barnes, Garcia in the mornings.
3. He trains them fast and he trains them hard. He can do this because he has a lot of horses.

[n.c]

left Baffert, he will still win. I think you can replace those 3. His horses does have that extra "it"

[lamboguy]

left Baffert, he will still win. I think you can replace those 3. His horses does have that extra "it"
most of his horses are prepared by McCathan in Ocala, Florida. i see other's that win coming from that training center. there was one that came from them last week that paid $50 for Assmussen at the spa. i play all of them that i know that came from there.

[lamboguy]

this looked like a tremendous day for business at the spa. i am wondering if this was a record breaking day for them. i know they did great with attendance, they were charging $15 to get in.

[dilanesp]

1. He gets very very talented horses
2. He has a very good team with Jim and Dana Barnes, Garcia in the mornings.
3. He trains them fast and he trains them hard. He can do this because he has a lot of horses.

I love 3, by the way.I love to see that Baffert worktab with tbe 59's and 1:11's.

[woodbinepmi]

West Coast is the only horse here who never ran against any of the others.Top trainer and rider. Taking him to win.

Good call

[GMB@BP]

left Baffert, he will still win. I think you can replace those 3. His horses does have that extra "it"

maybe. probably

Dana Barnes is the main exercise rider...she used to work for some trainer named Whittingham, when he retired Baffert made it a priority to hire her.

[n.c]

most of his horses are prepared by McCathan in Ocala, Florida. i see other's that win coming from that training center. there was one that came from them last week that paid $50 for Assmussen at the spa. i play all of them that i know that came from there.


assman - talking about Pure Shot??..I played Pletcher Sermon horse at the top 2 spot, wheeling around it , but stayed away from assman, thinking the studfee on that horse was like 5000 or 8000..so i was stupid enough to pass..but Assman is good with 2 year old's

[Secondbest]

Good call

Thanks

[Afleet]

I can't figure this one out. Just guessing w/Good Samaritan, Irap, Gunnevera. Javier Castellano has won the Travers an unprecedented five times in just nine tries. His Win ROI in the race is a spectacular $11.17.

Thought I had this turning for home; just couldn't see the 3 getting the lead. Thought it would be 7&10 1st and 2nd around the first turn

[menifee]

Man, these 3yo stink.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Tarred and Feathered.

Couldn't be more wrong.

LDH you are one of my favorite handicappers to talk turkey too. We both know this is par for the course! Great Man-Ness! Rare these days!

[CincyHorseplayer]

The West Coast is the Best Coast.
They know how to train them, they know how to ride them.

So much for the Triple Crown winners, Moe, Larry and Curly.
knuck knuck knuck.


What do these east coast guys need when Baffert comes to town?

Very nice Tom! A few people at the fight tonight were asking me about the race today. It ended up a Baffert dissertation! I started playing in 96 and Baffert had a nose loss in KYD. Nobody has been greater since. And he earned it. Love this post here brother!

[Tom]

It is nice of NYRA to put on these monster race cards to showcase....the Baffert Barn and Mike Smith's riding abilities. They should have kept the inner - don't think he shipped too many there. Kind of a NYRA trainer safe spot.

[n.c]

"People know I don’t ship there just to watch them run around the track,” :D

[Tom]

New NYRA condition...."Weight, 122lbs. For horses trained by Bob Baffert, 158 lbs."

[GMB@BP]

New NYRA condition...."Weight, 122lbs. For horses trained by Bob Baffert, 158 lbs."

ur rolling man, made me laugh

[Redboard]

Tarred and Feathered.

Couldn't be more wrong.

No need for that. Many have egg on their face after a race. Love the energy you bring to this board.

[classhandicapper]

New NYRA condition...."Weight, 122lbs. For horses trained by Bob Baffert, 158 lbs."

He's making it tougher to play these major stakes. West Coast probably would have been around 10/1 or 12/1 if he was trained by anyone other than Baffert. I threw him onto my exotic tickets at 6-1 because I didn't want to get beat by another of his horses that jumped way up for a big race and not because I thought his last race (against a weaker field on an outside track at LRC) was so powerful. I didn't cash anyway, but I don't enjoy playing Grade 1 stakes the way I play claiming races with suspected juicers. I don't want to throw horses onto my tickets out of fear instead of conviction about how good they are.

[Spalding No!]

He's making it tougher to play these major stakes. West Coast probably would have been around 10/1 or 12/1 if he was trained by anyone other than Baffert. I threw him onto my exotic tickets at 6-1 because I didn't want to get beat by another of his horses that jumped way up for a big race and not because I thought his last race (against a weaker field on an outside track at LRC) was so powerful.
This is a little over the top in my opinion.

West Coast came into the race with consecutive Beyers of 99 and 100. That equaled post-time favorite Good Samaritan's 100 in the Jim Dandy. The highest Beyer for the year to date from this field was the 102s registered by both classic winners, both of whom were coming off poor performances (twice over in the case of Always Dreaming).

West Coast has been hyped well in advance of the race. In fact, he had already shipped back east and took down a modest prize on the Belmont undercard, easily defeating Outplay, who outside of that loss has won his last 4 starts including the Curlin Stakes, a Travers prep that has produced BC Classic winner Blame, Travers winner VE Day, and Cigar Mile winner Connect in its brief history.

In post race comments after the Easy Goer, Baffert stated that his original intention that day was to run West Coast in the Belmont Stakes, but that he wasn't progressing quite as nicely as he hoped at that stage.

West Coast also signaled his class (relative to this modest bunch of 3yos) well in advance of the race in the Lexington. Off a lone maiden win, West Coast went to Keeneland and just got beat on the line by Senior Investment. Senior Investment came off that win to run 3rd in the Preakness, beating 3 rivals that reappeared in the Travers (Always Dreaming, Gunnevera, Lookin At Lee).

Its rare in this day an age with "scientific" training and small foal crops and myriads of stakes races competing for the same horses, but carefully managing a horse in allowance races and lesser stakes prior to a "coming out" party of sorts has always been the ideal method of getting a good horse to realize its full potential. This sort of management is nothing new, it is simply rare nowadays, and guys like Baffert and Pletcher--who have an embarrassment of riches in terms of stock--can afford to do it, especially when said horses are not able to make the Triple Crown.

[GMB@BP]

He's making it tougher to play these major stakes. West Coast probably would have been around 10/1 or 12/1 if he was trained by anyone other than Baffert. I threw him onto my exotic tickets at 6-1 because I didn't want to get beat by another of his horses that jumped way up for a big race and not because I thought his last race (against a weaker field on an outside track at LRC) was so powerful. I didn't cash anyway, but I don't enjoy playing Grade 1 stakes the way I play claiming races with suspected juicers. I don't want to throw horses onto my tickets out of fear instead of conviction about how good they are.

I dont believe the guy who gets the best dirt stock in the world happens to be juicing, just like I didnt believe Bobby Franekl was juicing his turf horses.

[deathandgravity]

Baffert/Smith/1 ¼ at Saratoga.. +79% ROI (in my incomplete database)
That was enough for me throw the horse in on my P4.

[dilanesp]

This is a little over the top in my opinion.

West Coast came into the race with consecutive Beyers of 99 and 100. That equaled post-time favorite Good Samaritan's 100 in the Jim Dandy. The highest Beyer for the year to date from this field was the 102s registered by both classic winners, both of whom were coming off poor performances (twice over in the case of Always Dreaming).

West Coast has been hyped well in advance of the race. In fact, he had already shipped back east and took down a modest prize on the Belmont undercard, easily defeating Outplay, who outside of that loss has won his last 4 starts including the Curlin Stakes, a Travers prep that has produced BC Classic winner Blame, Travers winner VE Day, and Cigar Mile winner Connect in its brief history.

In post race comments after the Easy Goer, Baffert stated that his original intention that day was to run West Coast in the Belmont Stakes, but that he wasn't progressing quite as nicely as he hoped at that stage.

West Coast also signaled his class (relative to this modest bunch of 3yos) well in advance of the race in the Lexington. Off a lone maiden win, West Coast went to Keeneland and just got beat on the line by Senior Investment. Senior Investment came off that win to run 3rd in the Preakness, beating 3 rivals that reappeared in the Travers (Always Dreaming, Gunnevera, Lookin At Lee).

Its rare in this day an age with "scientific" training and small foal crops and myriads of stakes races competing for the same horses, but carefully managing a horse in allowance races and lesser stakes prior to a "coming out" party of sorts has always been the ideal method of getting a good horse to realize its full potential. This sort of management is nothing new, it is simply rare nowadays, and guys like Baffert and Pletcher--who have an embarrassment of riches in terms of stock--can afford to do it, especially when said horses are not able to make the Triple Crown.

I really like this analysis of West Coast, because it is a nice demonstration of the value of class handicapping even in this day and age of ever more precise numbers. Here's a horse whose ability could really best be seen by analyzing who he had run against.

[Robert Fischer]

Tapwrit has zero chance.
This was a dumb statement. If the flow was very forward-favoring, Tapwrit had a chance to get a sweet trip.


As a fan, you really want to like Cloud Computing. He's the quality horse, and he figures to improve with more of a stalking style and less of a pressing style. An efficient stalking trip is no guarantee (we could see a repeat of the poor decision to track/press that we saw in the Jim Dandy). Also have to consider that an efficient race from CC is not necessarily a dominant race.
I think Serling ended up picking him. Seemed to be an honest value, but his no-show in the Jim Dandy, along with Travers hindsight brings to question his standing in the division. Had to use Cloud Computing on your tickets. I picked him 3rd, and I used him with forwardly placed horses and West Coast.


West Coast is clearly dangerous. He is trained by team Baffert, and shown enough quality thus far. He's relatively unproven, and appears to be a touch on the 'sluggish' side (normally better for the 3rd/4th position), but his stamina advantage could put him in contention. He will be ridden with confidence, and should at least be a part of any late flow.
He was the only horse that looked ready/capable to run a big 'A' race. Good value @ 6-1 fourth choice when he was the most likely winner. Not tremendous value. Tactics were a big surprise. Was 'supposed to' make a middle-move into a slow pace and then out-last the other forwardly placed horses to contend for the win. I had him on top, and as a key.


It would be a mild upset if Always Dreaming were to run a strong race. However, even in this high-quality Travers, there isn't much quality forwardly-placed speed in this race. He's got a puncher's chance if he were to run his 'A'. I fully expect him to be empty again in the stretch. Fayeq is a threat to press from the wide draw. Neither should be in the superfecta without a soft, pace-less race.
He was really embarrassed! Was only expected to run half a quality race, but mike smith ate johnny and AD's lunch, and nobody even noticed their presence. Some people actually picked him, due to his threat of wiring the field. I had him 4th. I thought a forward-favoring pace would help him hit the board. There was a puncher's-chance that he could wire. Tactics surprised me. Passive and sluggish vs aggressive and sharp.


Irap looks like a trap. He's much more fun to root for, than to bet on. Would be a great story if he puts it all together, but it's more likely that he makes no impact. Their best hope probably involves attending the pace. Would be ironic, if Irap were to conservatively attend a slow pace, and then inherit a strong position, and actually change leads, while Always Dreaming stops and Fayeq sputters on the wrong lead.
I realized before post that he would get a good trip, and that aside from West Coast there wasn't anyone in this field who would run a big 'A' race(and that a good trip 'B' from Irap was a contending trip). I had him 2nd because of that opinion. Just the same, he was poor value @ 5.8-1.


McCraken, Gunnevera, Good Samaritan are all kind of in the same 'quality horse with style, trip dependent' category of horses that can fill out a trifecta or superfecta, or need things to fall apart. If it becomes a wide-open cavalry charge, these will likely at least be involved.

You had 3 quality pace-dependent horses with about the same chance, and wildly different odds.
Good Samaritan was just an unbelievable underlay. He may have been about the 4th-x(4th-7th?) best horse in the race, but he was also very pace dependent.
Gunnevera was a good value. Seven times the price of Good Samaritan with about the same chances. McCraken was about fair value.
There was a degree of randomness with this grouping, and it just happened to be the value this time. Could have easily been the crazy underlay.
I keyed West Coast over this group, -but only with like running styles, (not this group mixed with irap,tapwrit,CC,AD), so I zig-zagged out of it.

:3::10::1::7:
Happy with my selections in terms of most likely winners/multis.
Did not expect any of the 3 pace-dependent stretch runners to mix with the forward horses in the vertical exotics. Thought it would either be a dead forward flow, or a cavalry charge.

[classhandicapper]

This is a little over the top in my opinion.

West Coast came into the race with consecutive Beyers of 99 and 100. That equaled post-time favorite Good Samaritan's 100 in the Jim Dandy. The highest Beyer for the year to date from this field was the 102s registered by both classic winners, both of whom were coming off poor performances (twice over in the case of Always Dreaming).

West Coast has been hyped well in advance of the race. In fact, he had already shipped back east and took down a modest prize on the Belmont undercard, easily defeating Outplay, who outside of that loss has won his last 4 starts including the Curlin Stakes, a Travers prep that has produced BC Classic winner Blame, Travers winner VE Day, and Cigar Mile winner Connect in its brief history.

In post race comments after the Easy Goer, Baffert stated that his original intention that day was to run West Coast in the Belmont Stakes, but that he wasn't progressing quite as nicely as he hoped at that stage.

West Coast also signaled his class (relative to this modest bunch of 3yos) well in advance of the race in the Lexington. Off a lone maiden win, West Coast went to Keeneland and just got beat on the line by Senior Investment. Senior Investment came off that win to run 3rd in the Preakness, beating 3 rivals that reappeared in the Travers (Always Dreaming, Gunnevera, Lookin At Lee).

Its rare in this day an age with "scientific" training and small foal crops and myriads of stakes races competing for the same horses, but carefully managing a horse in allowance races and lesser stakes prior to a "coming out" party of sorts has always been the ideal method of getting a good horse to realize its full potential. This sort of management is nothing new, it is simply rare nowadays, and guys like Baffert and Pletcher--who have an embarrassment of riches in terms of stock--can afford to do it, especially when said horses are not able to make the Triple Crown.

I didn't say he was a bad horse. I said he would have been 10-1 or 12-1 in a field that deep if he was trained by anyone other than Baffert. I heard multiple people whose opinion I respect say in podcasts they were throwing him on fear of another Baffert jump up. That's why I threw him in. The fact of the matter is he did jump way up.

Just for the record (not saying I am necessarily right), but IMO that Los Al field was weak, in hindsight the Beyer figure looks somewhat inflated, and all the talk about how much ground he lost that day missed the fact that the rail was probably dead. Even if it wasn't dead, most horses were making wide moves that day just like they often do at Los Al.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Hindsight isn't always just 20/20 but it's damn funny as well! I didn't think the winner was out of the realm of absurdity, which I think in many races at Saratoga but I also didn't think much of anybody in the race. I used 6 in both the P3-4 because I did have slim opinions in other races. This whole field underwhelmed me. I did bet Irap at 7-1. No dice even by the stewards!

[classhandicapper]

I dont believe the guy who gets the best dirt stock in the world happens to be juicing, just like I didnt believe Bobby Franekl was juicing his turf horses.

I didn't mean to imply that Baffert is juicing. I meant to imply that I have to think about his horses the same way I think about claiming trainers that have long been suspected of juicing. There's a "jump up" factor that has to be incorporated into the probability of his horses winning a major stake. It's WAY more likely to happen with one of his horses than any of the other leading dirt trainers. I'm used to that sort of thing with very lightly raced high quality MDN/ALW stock, but with him it seems to happen in bigger doses at later stages.

[Robert Fischer]

PEDs help you earn more money, and they are difficult, if not impossible, to detect.

Not sure where the idea that only claimers would get PEDs comes from.

If I was a dealer, or crooked veterinarian, or had knowledge of testing loopholes, I would market my services to the money clients.

For all we know there may have been several in the race who built their credentials and/or ran on PEDs. It's a complete guess.

[dilanesp]

I didn't mean to imply that Baffert is juicing. I meant to imply that I have to think about his horses the same way I think about claiming trainers that have long been suspected of juicing. There's a "jump up" factor that has to be incorporated into the probability of his horses winning a major stake. It's WAY more likely to happen with one of his horses than any of the other leading dirt trainers. I'm used to that sort of thing with very lightly raced high quality MDN/ALW stock, but with him it seems to happen in bigger doses at later stages.

Do any of the handicapping databases have a statistic for "up in class / stakes race"? Because I bet Baffert's percentage is very good at that.

[cj]

He's making it tougher to play these major stakes. West Coast probably would have been around 10/1 or 12/1 if he was trained by anyone other than Baffert. I threw him onto my exotic tickets at 6-1 because I didn't want to get beat by another of his horses that jumped way up for a big race and not because I thought his last race (against a weaker field on an outside track at LRC) was so powerful. I didn't cash anyway, but I don't enjoy playing Grade 1 stakes the way I play claiming races with suspected juicers. I don't want to throw horses onto my tickets out of fear instead of conviction about how good they are.

I'm not sure why he was dismissed by many. He is a horse that won easy on Belmont day, then won at Los Al with a nice speed figure while 4 or 5 wide on both turns. None of the horses he was facing look like anything great and / or were pretty clearly tailing off. The Haskell and Jim Dandy were eyesores.

[classhandicapper]

I'm not sure why he was dismissed by many. He is a horse that won easy on Belmont day, then won at Los Al with a nice speed figure while 4 or 5 wide on both turns. None of the horses he was facing look like anything great and / or were pretty clearly tailing off. The Haskell and Jim Dandy were eyesores.

I didn't dismiss him. I used him. But my personal opinion (right or wrong) was that his Los Al race was overrated. It came back pretty fast on Beyer, but it looked a little too fast relative to the other horses. Now the rest of them are coming back with weaker races. I also didn't give him much credit for being wide that day. I made it a BR day. Horses win with wide trips at Los Al all the time. I saw him as an up and comer against a weak group that could be used because he might jump up, but I didn't love him.

I hated the Jim Dandy horses. That race fell apart (a maiden graduate and Giuseppe the Great finished right with them). Cloud Computing ran against the rail bias in the 2 path but he was dreadful that day and his win in the Preakness was a magically perfect trip.

I didn't hate the Haskell. I made it a BR/CL track (notice that Battle of Midway came back to run big. I played him). But I was hesitant about using McCracken (10F) or Girvin too heavily because they both got good setups there. I have a tough time using horses if they got perfect setups last out.

Irap interested me a little. I used him, but I thought Girvin was better than him in the Ohio Derby. So how much could I like him over Girvin?

I wound up using Tapwrit, Girvin, Irap, and West Coast, The only reason I got in was that I hated the Jim Dandy and a few of those horses got bet. The bummer was that I used Gunnevera in the Derby pretty good and didn't have him anywhere. I'm ice cold right now. If I picked Arrogate he'd get get beat twice in a row - never mind :-).

[classhandicapper]

Do any of the handicapping databases have a statistic for "up in class / stakes race"? Because I bet Baffert's percentage is very good at that.


Those up and down in class queries are tricky. If I get a chance I'll see if I can put something together that would cover Graded stakes.

[Spalding No!]

I didn't say he was a bad horse. I said he would have been 10-1 or 12-1 in a field that deep if he was trained by anyone other than Baffert. I heard multiple people whose opinion I respect say in podcasts they were throwing him on fear of another Baffert jump up. That's why I threw him in. The fact of the matter is he did jump way up.
The Travers field was deep only in the sense of prior accomplishment, in terms of recent form and demonstrable ability at 10f, the field was very anemic. Only West Coast, Girvin, and Irap had put back to back races together at peak form and most of it was accomplished in second tier races. The classic winners were in terrible shape, and the public was not fooled, letting those horses get off between 6-1 and 11-1. If the race was competitive on paper it was because it was a crapshoot.

West Coast at 6-1 was not a great underlay, and if Pletcher, Chad Brown, or a host of other top trainers were at the helm he would have been the same price. If he was overbet it had to do with the public's dismissal of the shakey division leaders which was clearly well-founded.

Just for the record (not saying I am necessarily right), but IMO that Los Al field was weak, in hindsight the Beyer figure looks somewhat inflated, and all the talk about how much ground he lost that day missed the fact that the rail was probably dead. Even if it wasn't dead, most horses were making wide moves that day just like they often do at Los Al.
Why is the Beyer inflated? Just because? Klimt was a Grade 1 winner at 2, Colonist came back to place in another graded stakes, Kimbear had run a sharp second to Allen Jerkens favorite American Anthem, and the rest were all listed stakes winners at the very least. That's ignoring the fact that West Coast won the race by open lengths.

[cj]

I didn't dismiss him. I used him. But my personal opinion (right or wrong) was that his Los Al race was overrated. It came back pretty fast on Beyer, but it looked a little too fast relative to the other horses. Now the rest of them are coming back with weaker races. I also didn't give him much credit for being wide that day. I made it a BR day. Horses win with wide trips at Los Al all the time. I saw him as an up and comer against a weak group that could be used because he might jump up, but I didn't love him.

I hated the Jim Dandy horses. That race fell apart (a maiden graduate and Giuseppe the Great finished right with them). Cloud Computing ran against the rail bias in the 2 path but he was dreadful that day and his win in the Preakness was a magically perfect trip.

I didn't hate the Haskell. I made it a BR/CL track (notice that Battle of Midway came back to run big. I played him). But I was hesitant about using McCracken (10F) or Girvin too heavily because they both got good setups there. I have a tough time using horses if they got perfect setups last out.

Irap interested me a little. I used him, but I thought Girvin was better than him in the Ohio Derby. So how much could I like him over Girvin?

I wound up using Tapwrit, Girvin, Irap, and West Coast, The only reason I got in was that I hated the Jim Dandy and a few of those horses got bet. The bummer was that I used Gunnevera in the Derby pretty good and didn't have him anywhere. I'm ice cold right now. If I picked Arrogate he'd get get beat twice in a row - never mind :-).

I don't think that do at Los Al was a bad rail day at all. There were horses that ran very well that spent long portions of the race on the rail, including R8, the very next race. As for the Beyer, I had it nearly exactly the same as Beyer, a hair higher if memory serves.

I mentioned it I believe earlier, but Girvin, McCraken and Good Samaritan were picking up real weight for this race. At 10f I think that mattered too.

[classhandicapper]

I don't think that do at Los Al was a bad rail day at all. There were horses that ran very well that spent long portions of the race on the rail, including R8, the very next race. As for the Beyer, I had it nearly exactly the same as Beyer, a hair higher if memory serves.

I mentioned it I believe earlier, but Girvin, McCraken and Good Samaritan were picking up real weight for this race. At 10f I think that mattered too.

I'll review the Los Al day again, but it was clearly one of those days at Los Al where being wide was no big disadvantage. That's a fairly typical day at Los Al.

I'm not questioning whether the Beyer figure was accurate in terms of the times on that day. It just looked too high relative to the horses and they are all running back poorly except for him.

[classhandicapper]

West Coast at 6-1 was not a great underlay, and if Pletcher, Chad Brown, or a host of other top trainers were at the helm he would have been the same price. If he was overbet it had to do with the public's dismissal of the shakey division leaders which was clearly well-founded.
.


I didn't say West Coast was an underlay. Since I used him, I clearly thought the price was reasonable. But I thought the price was reasonable because of the higher probability he had of jumping up relative to the other horses and not because of his race at Los Al.

He DID in fact jump up.

I'd be willing to admit that maybe that was just my thinking, except that I heard more than one handicapper whose opinion I respect say the same exact thing. They were throwing him in because he was trained by Baffert and they were tired of playing against him in big races only to watch his horse jump up and beat them. I suspect other people were thinking similarly. That's why I concluded he would have been longer odds if he was trained by someone else.

You don't have to defend your pick on the merits of the horse. He won.

We simply disagree on the quality of his race at Los Al. I think it was fine, but not as good as it looks if you start adjusting for ground loss and accepting the speed figure as reflective of how good it was. This won't be the last time handicappers disagree about a race. ;)

[cj]

I'll review the Los Al day again, but it was clearly one of those days at Los Al where being wide was no big disadvantage. That's a fairly typical day at Los Al.

I'm not questioning whether the Beyer figure was accurate in terms of the times on that day. It just looked too high relative to the horses and they are all running back poorly except for him.

Horses did ok outside for sure as well, but if the inside is also fine, seems to me losing at least six or seven lengths of ground is going to hurt time wise, and by extension the speed figure. Also, Los Al has a very long stretch. Those horses wide in the stretch could have been further inside on the turn(s).

[classhandicapper]

I'll review the Los Al day again, but it was clearly one of those days at Los Al where being wide was no big disadvantage. That's a fairly typical day at Los Al.


I just quickly watched the replays again.

I remember watching that last race multiple times when I was doing my bias note. He was inside just off the rail first turn, way out on the backstretch, and just off the rail or in the 2 path on the second turn.

This was my note for the day.

"Dirt - BR (races mostly developed with an outside flow and some riders avoided rail)"

For me, "BR" means I'd rather be outside and off the rail than saving ground, but it's not a death sentence if you are inside. (BR+ would be the notation for it practically being a death sentence inside).

I also have a notation of "Outside OK". That means horses seem to be running just as well on the outside as on the inside (which should really not be the case because saving ground should be an advantage).

So for me the day was borderline between BR and Oustide OK. I went with BR because a couple of horses right on the rail seemed to be struggling. In either case though, I wouldn't give horses that raced wide a lot of extra credit. If they are doing as well as horses on the inside, that means they are on the better (faster?) paths and it's compensating for the ground loss. I see LOTS of days like that at quite a few tracks.

In the race I had West Coast between 4 and 5 wide, but I had Klimt 3 wide both turns and B Squared between 3 and 4 wide most of the race.

Kimbear was the horse I had inside for most of the race and he didn't run particularly well.

Cistron also spent some time inside.

This kind of stuff is so subjective and inexact, it's not the kind of thing where I'm going to try to make precise adjustments to speed figures. I know what kind of horse Klimt and B Squared are and I can see their relative trips. That's the kind of compare I do.

[Valuist]

Big race by Gunnevera. He was bumped at the break, then made a big move real wide on the far turn, on a day you really did not want to be out in the middle of the track. All while trying to run down a sharp, Baffert, loose on the lead runner. I'd love to see him try the BC Classic at about 40/1 or 50/1,

[GMB@BP]

Big race by Gunnevera. He was bumped at the break, then made a big move real wide on the far turn, on a day you really did not want to be out in the middle of the track. All while trying to run down a sharp, Baffert, loose on the lead runner. I'd love to see him try the BC Classic at about 40/1 or 50/1,

I thought the track was pretty fair.

Also his run, while impressive, can be a bit attribute to the slowish 3rd quarter that was run, at least the visual representation that we saw. He ran well but will be universally over bet off this.

at 40/1 yea, at 6/5 in say a 3yo grade 2 stake, no thanks.

[dilanesp]

I thought the track was pretty fair.

Also his run, while impressive, can be a bit attribute to the slowish 3rd quarter that was run, at least the visual representation that we saw. He ran well but will be universally over bet off this.

at 40/1 yea, at 6/5 in say a 3yo grade 2 stake, no thanks.

Gunnavera strikes me as a horse who has plenty of ability but just needs the race to set up perfectly for him. When he gets the set-up (like he did in the Delta Jackpot), he can look awesome. When he doesn't, he looks ordinary.

Certainly a horse you should watch out for in these big races and ask yourself "is this race going to set up for him today?".

[classhandicapper]

Gunnavera strikes me as a horse who has plenty of ability but just needs the race to set up perfectly for him. When he gets the set-up (like he did in the Delta Jackpot), he can look awesome. When he doesn't, he looks ordinary.

Certainly a horse you should watch out for in these big races and ask yourself "is this race going to set up for him today?".

I thought he was good in the Travers, but that's generally my opinion of him also.

[Valuist]

I thought the track was pretty fair.

Also his run, while impressive, can be a bit attribute to the slowish 3rd quarter that was run, at least the visual representation that we saw. He ran well but will be universally over bet off this.

at 40/1 yea, at 6/5 in say a 3yo grade 2 stake, no thanks.

He won't be 6/5. Not happening.

Someday he's gonna get a decent trip. Is he good enough to win a BC Classic? Probably not but I could see him being in the money at a monsterous price.