It is Time to Free the Data

[highnote]

I just read this column by Paulick from 7 years ago:

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/free-our-stats/

It really is time to make archived data available to horseplayers for free.

Past Performances can still be sold, but historical data should not cost anything.

As one person wrote online, even if the most recent 6 months of data has to be purchased that would be fine.

But why is 4 or 5 year old data not available?

Paulick makes a good argument.

[horseraceguy101]

even pp's probably shouldn't cost anything. hard to compete with sports betting when most of their data is free across many websites online. horse racing not so much.

[n.c]

my bet cost 2 dollars. i got to hit a 5-1 in the first race to break even.:puke:
Free data 5 years back will not help me..DRF forms for 5 dollars may help me.

[Fager Fan]

What data are you looking for? Equibase gives pretty good historical data, and for free.

[highnote]

What data are you looking for? Equibase gives pretty good historical data, and for free.

Me, in particular, nothing. I stopped betting U.S. races several years ago, but I like to advocate for anything that helps horseplayers.

A lot of handicappers create databases of racing data for use in their software programs. I was one of them and I spent quite a bit on data over the years.

Computer Handicappers need comma-delimited data. Equibase has a lot of information, but turning it into useable data that can be imported into databases requires a lot of reverse engineering. It's not worth the trouble - at least it wasn't to me.

Betfair give away their betting data. They have years of it available for download.

Have you ever heard of an ADW like tspires or xpressbet giving away archived tote data the way betfair do? Why do ts and xbet not make it available on their websites? There is a lot of valuable information that can be extracted from historical betting data -- like looking for betdown patterns, for example. Information that can be extracted from data is what drives handle. DUH

Hell, Keeneland just raised their rates, maybe they can make some free data available to boycotting handicappers to try to win them back? :ThmbUp:

[cj]

What data are you looking for? Equibase gives pretty good historical data, and for free.

I think all they really give is charts, PDF style.

[AltonKelsey]

Trakus another one, too much trouble for them to make the data downloadable.

[highnote]

It's not a big deal. I just happened upon Paulick's column and agreed with him.

I realize there are data sellers who make cash selling data, but they should be selling value-added data, not basic data.

I've always believed basic racing data should be provided for free -- and it kind of is in the equibase pdf charts.

But, as Paulick says, if you want to query a database and look up Richard Migliore's stats, it cannot be easily done.

However, you can go online and find Pete Maravich's NBA stats from the 1970s.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/maravpe01.html

Think about it... Keeneland raised their rates, but what are they giving horseplayers for the extra cost they are charging to bet into their pools?

[highnote]

Trakus another one, too much trouble for them to make the data downloadable.

Good point. Handicappers could have a field day extracting data from Trakus. But do they make it available for download in a comma-delimited format free for horseplayers? Noooooooo :ThmbDown:

[cj]

Good point. Handicappers could have a field day extracting data from Trakus. But do they make it available for download in a comma-delimited format free for horseplayers? Noooooooo :ThmbDown:

Trakus had such promise, but if it were a horse, comment would be "bid, faltered".

[highnote]

Trakus had such promise, but if it were a horse, comment would be "bid, faltered".

Maybe it's just not that accurate and they want to save themselves the embarrassment of being found out?

[JustRalph]

Trakus had such promise, but if it were a horse, comment would be "bid, faltered".

"Bid, faltered, lost the rider"

Nobody pushing to make it better anymore. I was very hopeful in the beginning

[highnote]

"Bid, faltered, lost the rider"

Nobody pushing to make it better anymore. I was very hopeful in the beginning

Yes. Everyone seems resigned to the inevitable. Racing in the US is dying a long slow death.

[ubercapper]

But, as Paulick says, if you want to query a database and look up Richard Migliore's stats, it cannot be easily done.


These kinds of queries (jockeys, trainers, horses, owners, graded stakes, tracks) have been available for free for quite some time.

Just go to Equibase and click the entity you want to search from the drop down and search box on the top of every page.

Example: Migliore
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=J&eID=1269

[highnote]

These kinds of queries (jockeys, trainers, horses, owners, graded stakes, tracks) have been available for free for quite some time.

Just go to Equibase and click the entity you want to search from the drop down and search box on the top of every page.

Example: Migliore
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=J&eID=1269

:ThmbUp::cool:

[Tom]

"Bid, faltered, lost the rider"

Nobody pushing to make it better anymore. I was very hopeful in the beginning

Dwelt.

[highnote]

Dwelt.

The 70s and 80's saw a renaissance in handicapping. Beyer, Quinn, Quirin, Dr. Z, Dick Mitchell, Sartin, and others. The last renaissance book was Fotias' "Blinkers Off".

What breakthrough book has been written lately?

Maybe it takes 20 or 30 years for ideas to find their way into the market?

Maybe jockeys will wear 3-D cameras and we will be able to watch a live stream or a replay of the video from all of the jockey's perspectives.

We won't need books. The moving pictures will tell millions of words.

[highnote]

Dwelt.

Big, hung.

But what we want is

Easily

[Tom]

We won't need books. The moving pictures will tell millions of words.

Yeah, at NYRA, all the camera will show if a bunch of horses' asses, as opposed to the bunch of horse's asses wearing them.

I like to follow the horses, but but I don't like my jockeys to.

[cj]

The 70s and 80's saw a renaissance in handicapping. Beyer, Quinn, Quirin, Dr. Z, Dick Mitchell, Sartin, and others. The last renaissance book was Fotias' "Blinkers Off".

What breakthrough book has been written lately?

Maybe it takes 20 or 30 years for ideas to find their way into the market?

Maybe jockeys will wear 3-D cameras and we will be able to watch a live stream or a replay of the video from all of the jockey's perspectives.

We won't need books. The moving pictures will tell millions of words.

Someday I'm going to write a book that nobody will read!

[classhandicapper]

Trakus another one, too much trouble for them to make the data downloadable.

I believe the problem with Trakus is that the "tracks" actually own the data not Trakus. So to get it, there would probably have to be negotiations with each of the tracks.

[classhandicapper]

What breakthrough book has been written lately?

Maybe it takes 20 or 30 years for ideas to find their way into the market?



I think the next good book will be based on data and advanced stats instead of opinions formed via trail and error gambling experience. As noteworthy as some of those older books were, the are riddled with opinions that don't always hold up when tested. Some of the better books have tried to use actual data and stats, but the sample sizes were too small.

It's different now with all the computing power available. Now, plenty of people have the ability to test the available data or design their own metrics that can quickly be tested against thousands of races to see what actually works and what is just nonsense being passed from one generation of horseplayers to the next.

[highnote]

I think the next good book will be based on data and advanced stats instead of opinions formed via trail and error gambling experience. As noteworthy as some of those older books were, the are riddled with opinions that don't always hold up when tested. Some of the better books have tried to use actual data and stats, but the sample sizes were too small.

It's different now with all the computing power available. Now, plenty of people have the ability to test the available data or design their own metrics that can quickly be tested against thousands of races to see what actually works and what is just nonsense being passed from one generation of horseplayers to the next.

That's a good point. Big data.

Someone could do a big research project and find out the value of post position at all tracks, for example.

That would be monumental.

The beauty of racing is that the value of something like post position at a given track probably changes over time due to what Howard Sartin called "the vagaries of loam and tide".

Change is what makes racing hard to predict. Those who understand how to measure change -- like daily variants -- probably make better predictions.

[Tom]

Someday I'm going to write a book that nobody will read!

My check is in the mail.

[Tom]

I believe the problem with Trakus is that the "tracks" actually own the data not Trakus. So to get it, there would probably have to be negotiations with each of the tracks.

This is 2017.....tracks can afford to outsource their incompetence.

[AltonKelsey]

I believe the problem with Trakus is that the "tracks" actually own the data not Trakus. So to get it, there would probably have to be negotiations with each of the tracks.

All we're asking for is an easier to access form of the data that's ALREADY AVAILABLE FREE.

I wokred on trying to scrape that crap a while ago, got 90% there, but decided it was too much hassle for too little gain

[betovernetcapper]

I don't think data from 7 years ago means much of anything. The surfaces , rules, riding styles change over a period of time. If anything that much old data would just add noise. Sartin once said that the most important part of a model is what happened yesterday & there is a lot to be said for that. I think if you have the data from the last week or so, you have enough for a useable model for today.

[dlivery]

Sartin had solid foundation under his feet and knew how it felt when he Lost

Next race ...

[highnote]

I don't think data from 7 years ago means much of anything. The surfaces , rules, riding styles change over a period of time. If anything that much old data would just add noise. Sartin once said that the most important part of a model is what happened yesterday & there is a lot to be said for that. I think if you have the data from the last week or so, you have enough for a useable model for today.

How many Sartin Methodology betting syndicates send hundreds of millions through the windows in a year and make tens of millions using a single paceline?

How many computerized betting syndicates send hundreds of millions through the windows in a year and make tens of millions using career past performances?

[betovernetcapper]

I'm not advocating anything about Sartin except his statement that implied more recent data was more important then more distant data. Knowing how the speed was holding the last week in August at AP in 2010, is not likely to be as helpful as knowing how the speed was holding the last few days & today in particular if your playing AP.
What horse won the most money in 2010? A horse named Blame who won 4 of 5 and placed in the other. I just don't get how this information is of any use. Even if you had a mare & wanted to breed her to Blame, it would be a little tricky as Blame is dead.
I have to wonder how many of those wishing for this old data are actually organizing & keeping models of what's happening currently. In a job interview, they generally don't ask how you did in elementary school, but usually ask something about your college years.

[highnote]

In a job interview, they generally don't ask how you did in elementary school, but usually ask something about your college years.

Recent information would typically be given more weight than older information in a horseracing context.

[betovernetcapper]

Recent information would typically be given more weight than older information in a horseracing context.

Given the amount of change that occurs in US racing, much of the older data would be inapplicable. A trainers or jockey may start or stop taking drugs. This is likely to have some effect on their performance. The trainer or jockey of 2010 may have no relation to their current incarnation. The same thing could be said of the surface. It could be dirt one year & poly the next. A 2 year old in 2010 would be a 9 year old today. It has likely changed.
In an earlier post you used the term "big data". Big data works on games like chess that have a large but finite set of moves. In this sense chess could be seen as a clock like thing. Racing on the other hand is always in a state of flux & each track and race are different.& unique. They are more of cloud like things. What is needed is recent-relevant and specific data for a particular race.

[highnote]

Given the amount of change that occurs in US racing, much of the older data would be inapplicable. A trainers or jockey may start or stop taking drugs. This is likely to have some effect on their performance. The trainer or jockey of 2010 may have no relation to their current incarnation. The same thing could be said of the surface. It could be dirt one year & poly the next. A 2 year old in 2010 would be a 9 year old today. It has likely changed.
In an earlier post you used the term "big data". Big data works on games like chess that have a large but finite set of moves. In this sense chess could be seen as a clock like thing. Racing on the other hand is always in a state of flux & each track and race are different.& unique. They are more of cloud like things. What is needed is recent-relevant and specific data for a particular race.

If that works for you that is good.

All I can say is that the most successful betting syndicates use lifetime past performances.

I do not claim to be anywhere near as successful as the big syndicates, but in my models lifetime past performances are used and statistically the models fit better than models I have made using fewer past races.

Sartin's "Total Pace Ratings" was the first system I used for making exacta bets on thoroughbreds and in the first six months of using it, I was comfortably ahead. However, I only bet one track because it was a lot of work to bet at more than one track because of the record keeping required. So I know that the Sartin method is good, but it is not easily scalable.

[betovernetcapper]

If that works for you that is good.

All I can say is that the most successful betting syndicates use lifetime past performances.

And may I ask where that fact came from? I'm curious as I'd always assumed most betting syndicates kept their methods somewhat private.

[highnote]

And may I ask where that fact came from? I'm curious as I'd always assumed most betting syndicates kept their methods somewhat private.

None of them share their computer code, but a lot of them discuss ideas. Multiple regression is not new. There are academic papers about building multi-factor prediction models.

Anyone with connections to professional betting syndicates knows that they use complicated mathematical models.