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View Full Version : My issue with the Pacific Classic/Baffert


Track Phantom
08-20-2017, 02:01 PM
Two observations about the $1M Pacific Classic, both involving Baffert, and both not good.

1. Did you see his reaction (and the reaction of his wife and son) after he ran ONE-TWO in the G1 Pacific Classic? Totally dejected, sad and his son, in anguish, swore (stay classy). I understand he wanted Arrogate to get back to form but WTF? You just ran one-two in the race. Only in America can a trainer accomplish this feat in a G1 and be upset about it. This bothered me.

2. Arrogate re-rally. Years ago, when Jamie Ness and Justin Evans were winning every other race at Canterbury, you could absolutely tell when their horses were drugged. They would be running in place on the far turn despite the rider "all-in". You felt their horse was beaten and then all of a sudden, the horse would kick in and win. It was actually very obvious to see if you looked for it. It is why these supertrainers like to send their runner to the lead because the drug works to reduce the fatigue factor. Thus you want the horse to be ahead when others start to fatigue in a normal way.

I'm not saying Arrogate was aided in this way but he looked absolutely stalled on the turn. He was being worked and then re-rallied. It looked illegitimate to me.

GMB@BP
08-20-2017, 02:10 PM
I love message boards..they are special.

cj
08-20-2017, 02:12 PM
1. I agree totally. I thought it was completely bush league. It shows maybe why Kaleem Shah packed up and left Baffert.

2. I don't see that here personally. I know the kind of horse you are talking about (watch any Jorge N winner for an example) and I didn't see that with Arrogate.

Dahoss9698
08-20-2017, 02:13 PM
I'm with you on #1 but not so much #2.

Track Phantom
08-20-2017, 02:26 PM
I understand point #2 is not worth mentioning since it cannot be proven. It just looked odd to me. I'll go back and rewatch the race to see if my opinion is different from watching it live.

Track Phantom
08-20-2017, 02:31 PM
Yea. I guess I take back point #2 somewhat. Watching the replay wasn't as dramatic as I felt it was watching it live. Maybe I just expected him to move when asked the first time, and he didn't.

dilanesp
08-20-2017, 02:54 PM
On number 2, I thought it is possible the people who say he doesn't like the track have a point. He was asked to run several tims and didn't respond. He is a competitor, so he finally tried to gut it out in the stretch, but this race totally looked like what a good horse who dislikes a surface might do.

Track Phantom
08-20-2017, 02:59 PM
On number 2, I thought it is possible the people who say he doesn't like the track have a point. He was asked to run several tims and didn't respond. He is a competitor, so he finally tried to gut it out in the stretch, but this race totally looked like what a good horse who dislikes a surface might do.
Fair point.

Andy Asaro
08-20-2017, 03:05 PM
You guys know that there's Bob and Jill when they know camera's are on and Bob and Jill when nobody is looking.

Grits
08-20-2017, 03:18 PM
1. I agree totally. I thought it was completely bush league. It shows maybe why Kaleem Shah packed up and left Baffert.

Was pleased to see Simon Callaghan and Mr.Shah win last weekend with Run Away in the Best Pal. That one may have stung Bob a bit.

After the race yesterday, I thought his comments and his reaction, petulant, and to me, this translates to...nervous. Not to mention, perplexed.

AndyC
08-20-2017, 03:29 PM
As to #1, I completely understand his reaction. Arrogate was/is considered to be the best horse in the world and with a couple of more significant wins might have been in the conversation as one of the best of all time. Say what you want but it must be incredibly deflating to have such a horse lose again. It certainly had to have been far more emotionally devastating than the win for Collected was uplifting.

dilanesp
08-20-2017, 03:53 PM
As to #1, I completely understand his reaction. Arrogate was/is considered to be the best horse in the world and with a couple of more significant wins might have been in the conversation as one of the best of all time. Say what you want but it must be incredibly deflating to have such a horse lose again. It certainly had to have been far more emotionally devastating than the win for Collected was uplifting.


+1

Look up Charles Howard's reaction when he won the Santa Anita Handicap with Kayak II. He wasn't as thrilled as you might expect.

cj
08-20-2017, 04:56 PM
+1

Look up Charles Howard's reaction when he won the Santa Anita Handicap with Kayak II. He wasn't as thrilled as you might expect.

Maybe not as thrilled as if Seabiscuit won, but Bob looked like he lost his best friend after winning the race.

Where do we look up the reaction, by the way?

dilanesp
08-20-2017, 05:03 PM
Maybe not as thrilled as if Seabiscuit won, but Bob looked like he lost his best friend after winning the race.

Where do we look up the reaction, by the way?

If you can find a newspaper article from the time (or maybe the University of Kentucky's Racing Form archive). I know that the LA Times did a recapitulation of it (which also may be available online) in the 80's or 90's in which they had the quotes.

Basically Howard answered almost every question by saying it was bittersweet because he wanted it to be / it should have been Seabiscuit. At that time, it wasn't at all clear that Seabiscuit would ever get another chance to win it.

EDIT: And here's an even better source! It's in Laura Hillenbrand's book!

https://books.google.com/books?id=oEFpcR9p4GYC&pg=PA292&lpg=PA292&dq=kayak+ii+santa+anita+handicap+1939+charles+howa rd&source=bl&ots=bR0VqRMmr1&sig=GAcW0hyWW1FCTwghOAMMKbGv7o0&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjduOX02-bVAhVKzFQKHVWkBj44HhDoAQg5MAQ#v=onepage&q=kayak%20ii%20santa%20anita%20handicap%201939%20c harles%20howard&f=false

"Oh gosh it was grand. Kayak II is a good horse. But gee, it wasn't Seabiscuit. I am extremely proud of the horse, but I can't help saying I would be happier had Seabiscuit been the winner."

cj
08-20-2017, 05:12 PM
If you can find a newspaper article from the time (or maybe the University of Kentucky's Racing Form archive). I know that the LA Times did a recapitulation of it (which also may be available online) in the 80's or 90's in which they had the quotes.

Basically Howard answered almost every question by saying it was bittersweet because he wanted it to be / it should have been Seabiscuit. At that time, it wasn't at all clear that Seabiscuit would ever get another chance to win it.

EDIT: And here's an even better source! It's in Laura Hillenbrand's book!

https://books.google.com/books?id=oEFpcR9p4GYC&pg=PA292&lpg=PA292&dq=kayak+ii+santa+anita+handicap+1939+charles+howa rd&source=bl&ots=bR0VqRMmr1&sig=GAcW0hyWW1FCTwghOAMMKbGv7o0&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjduOX02-bVAhVKzFQKHVWkBj44HhDoAQg5MAQ#v=onepage&q=kayak%20ii%20santa%20anita%20handicap%201939%20c harles%20howard&f=false

"Oh gosh it was grand. Kayak II is a good horse. But gee, it wasn't Seabiscuit. I am extremely proud of the horse, but I can't help saying I would be happier had Seabiscuit been the winner."

OK, but that is a far cry from Bob yesterday IMO. He looked gutted, almost like Arrogate had been pulled up on the backstretch.

dilanesp
08-20-2017, 05:22 PM
OK, but that is a far cry from Bob yesterday IMO. He looked gutted, almost like Arrogate had been pulled up on the backstretch.

To inject a note of sympathy for Baffert, I am in a business myself where we have multiple clients, and you don't want to be spiking the football too much on one client's behalf if at the same time another client's case just got dismissed or had to be settled on unfavorable terms or whatever.

It's actually a somewhat hard balance to maintain when there's both good news and bad news for two different clients. I'm not saying Baffert did a good job of it here (he didn't), but it's actually not easy.

cj
08-20-2017, 05:31 PM
To inject a note of sympathy for Baffert, I am in a business myself where we have multiple clients, and you don't want to be spiking the football too much on one client's behalf if at the same time another client's case just got dismissed or had to be settled on unfavorable terms or whatever.

It's actually a somewhat hard balance to maintain when there's both good news and bad news for two different clients. I'm not saying Baffert did a good job of it here (he didn't), but it's actually not easy.

That is the point. He didn't not do a good job, he did a horrible job of it. It was almost painful to watch. If I owned the other horse I'd be following in Kaleem Shah's footsteps.

I'm still trying to figure out how he talked the owners of Cupid, romping winner of the G1 Santa Anita Gold Cup last out, into running in some weak ass overnight stakes this Wednesday.

Fager Fan
08-20-2017, 06:34 PM
On number 2, I thought it is possible the people who say he doesn't like the track have a point. He was asked to run several tims and didn't respond. He is a competitor, so he finally tried to gut it out in the stretch, but this race totally looked like what a good horse who dislikes a surface might do.

Look at his stride going by the stands the first time. It was a nice, smooth, extended stride. That's not a horse not liking the surface.

Fager Fan
08-20-2017, 06:38 PM
As to #1, I completely understand his reaction. Arrogate was/is considered to be the best horse in the world and with a couple of more significant wins might have been in the conversation as one of the best of all time. Say what you want but it must be incredibly deflating to have such a horse lose again. It certainly had to have been far more emotionally devastating than the win for Collected was uplifting.

Maybe, but you want and expect your trainer to be happy with your horse winning. I imagine they understand to a point, but also not too happy about it. What conclusion can you draw except that your trainer wanted to beat your horse with his other one?

AndyC
08-20-2017, 07:08 PM
Maybe, but you want and expect your trainer to be happy with your horse winning. I imagine they understand to a point, but also not too happy about it. What conclusion can you draw except that your trainer wanted to beat your horse with his other one?

Just think how unhappy he would have been if his other horse hadn't won. Not knowing what the relationship is between Baffert and the winning owner I can only speculate how the owner feels about Bob's reaction. But really, what kind of snowflake owner needs more than a trip to the winner's circle and a large check? Baffert was hired to do exactly what he did with the winner, prep him to run a top race. I am not sure if coddling and being eternally cheerful was part of the deal.

Dahoss9698
08-20-2017, 07:58 PM
Look at his stride going by the stands the first time. It was a nice, smooth, extended stride. That's not a horse not liking the surface.
It's almost like we watched two different races.

Fager Fan
08-20-2017, 08:21 PM
Just think how unhappy he would have been if his other horse hadn't won. Not knowing what the relationship is between Baffert and the winning owner I can only speculate how the owner feels about Bob's reaction. But really, what kind of snowflake owner needs more than a trip to the winner's circle and a large check? Baffert was hired to do exactly what he did with the winner, prep him to run a top race. I am not sure if coddling and being eternally cheerful was part of the deal.

It's not being coddled the expect your trainer to be happy that your horse won. When there are two or more entered, you're expected to be equally happy whichever one wins. You fake it if need be.

Fager Fan
08-20-2017, 08:23 PM
It's almost like we watched two different races.

Maybe we did, but I made particular note of his stride right out of the gate. He was moving great.

Mike has said it wasn't the track, and Baffert also gives different reasoning for his performance, so maybe we can quit debating that it was the track.

AndyC
08-20-2017, 08:26 PM
It's not being coddled the expect your trainer to be happy that your horse won. When there are two or more entered, you're expected to be equally happy whichever one wins. You fake it if need be.

What we don't know is how he acted when face to face with the winning owners. How was he in the winner's circle?

Fager Fan
08-20-2017, 08:39 PM
What we don't know is how he acted when face to face with the winning owners. How was he in the winner's circle?

I looked for the WC on the telecast but they didn't show it that I saw. I've read other discussions about this exact thing and there are people saying that he looked like he just learned his best friend died in the WC.

dilanesp
08-20-2017, 08:40 PM
It's almost like we watched two different races.

Yeah, I am with Dahoss on this. Arrogate definitely didn't look like he was having a great time out there, at least until he got going at the very end of the race.

Dahoss9698
08-20-2017, 09:02 PM
Maybe we did, but I made particular note of his stride right out of the gate. He was moving great.

Mike has said it wasn't the track, and Baffert also gives different reasoning for his performance, so maybe we can quit debating that it was the track.

Mike Smith told Mike Joyce of TVG right after the race that he never got a hold of the track. He said it looked like he got a hold of it but that was because the horse in front of him was stopping.

When asked if it's because he doesn't like the surface his answer was "could be."

I'll take his word over yours.

Fager Fan
08-20-2017, 09:44 PM
Mike Smith told Mike Joyce of TVG right after the race that he never got a hold of the track. He said it looked like he got a hold of it but that was because the horse in front of him was stopping.

When asked if it's because he doesn't like the surface his answer was "could be."

I'll take his word over yours.

Yes, and he said on the radio this morning that it wasn't the track, but instead the horse frustratingly not always with his mind in the game. He finally got it in the game, hence why he again looked good (with long stretching stride) in the final 16th.

So I'm taking Mike's word too. But thanks for playing.

Dahoss9698
08-20-2017, 09:46 PM
Yes, and he said on the radio this morning that it wasn't the track, but instead the horse frustratingly not always with his mind in the game. He finally got it in the game, hence why he again looked good (with long stretching stride) in the final 16th.

So I'm taking Mike's word too. But thanks for playing.

Yawn.

He was swimming around the turn. We don't agree (good for me) and we never do.

Fager Fan
08-20-2017, 10:00 PM
Yawn.

He was swimming around the turn.

No kidding, pal.

You said his stride never looked good, and that's where you were wrong. He looked good the entire time except for the turn and top of the stretch.

You've shown very little aptitude for actual horses and their movement. I select horses at 2yoIT sales and watch works for a living, so I'm comfortable with stating what was there, which lo and behold, both Smith and Baffert agreed with.

Dahoss9698
08-20-2017, 10:41 PM
No kidding, pal.

You said his stride never looked good, and that's where you were wrong. He looked good the entire time except for the turn and top of the stretch.

You've shown very little aptitude for actual horses and their movement. I select horses at 2yoIT sales and watch works for a living, so I'm comfortable with stating what was there, which lo and behold, both Smith and Baffert agreed with.

Last word

Dahoss9698
08-20-2017, 10:44 PM
Fager Fraud watches works for a living but to my knowledge has never really offered up a pre race opinion.

I believe him.

ReplayRandall
08-20-2017, 10:55 PM
I select horses at 2yoIT sales and watch works for a living.

In all honesty, had you not stated what you did in your post, I'd have never come to that conclusion from reading your posts in the last 4 years....

Andy Asaro
08-21-2017, 09:02 AM
No kidding, pal.

You said his stride never looked good, and that's where you were wrong. He looked good the entire time except for the turn and top of the stretch.

You've shown very little aptitude for actual horses and their movement. I select horses at 2yoIT sales and watch works for a living, so I'm comfortable with stating what was there, which lo and behold, both Smith and Baffert agreed with.

Never looked comfortable to me and had to be pushed along to get near the pace. He was swimming on the turn for home and didn't grab the surface till late stretch.

Most of us understand that Trainers and Jocks say one thing in public and something else privately. Del Mar is very sensitive about the surface. Fatalities are way down but soft tissue injuries way up. They don't want to have people believe that it's 50-50 that their horses may not like the surface. Anything said that might impact negatively impact field size for the next meet is discouraged IMIO.

To give you an example look at the whip rule in Ca. Stevens and Smith came out for it and were very vocal about it when lobbied by Bo Derek. They both came to regret that decision. Both have been fined several times and so have alot of other jockeys. They know they're gonna get fined for trying to hard but do it anyway. Crazy rule IMO

Fager Fan
08-21-2017, 10:59 AM
Never looked comfortable to me and had to be pushed along to get near the pace. He was swimming on the turn for home and didn't grab the surface till late stretch.

Most of us understand that Trainers and Jocks say one thing in public and something else privately. Del Mar is very sensitive about the surface. Fatalities are way down but soft tissue injuries way up. They don't want to have people believe that it's 50-50 that their horses may not like the surface. Anything said that might impact negatively impact field size for the next meet is discouraged IMIO.

To give you an example look at the whip rule in Ca. Stevens and Smith came out for it and were very vocal about it when lobbied by Bo Derek. They both came to regret that decision. Both have been fined several times and so have alot of other jockeys. They know they're gonna get fined for trying to hard but do it anyway. Crazy rule IMO

This horse is a very valuable stallion prospect, and he has an extreme rarity going in his favor, which was the aura of a great and invincibility. The pressure to retain that is immense, so those managing the horse will/should do things that aren't done with the normal horse, which includes not running the horse over a surface that causes him to lose. This trainer didn't fall off the turnip truck yesterday and should well know when his horse really dislikes the surface. He ran the horse over the surface the first time, in the San Diego, and the result was the horse falling back to earth. It was an immense blow to his reputation, but not one that wasn't recoverable. So the trainer and the horse's managers look at all the possibilities for his next run, and what do they decide? To run him again on that same surface, despite there being other spots in which to run him. And now, despite a second loss on the surface, they are still talking of running him yet a third time over it, in the BCC.

If they have any inkling at all that the horse didn't like the surface, then they wouldn't run in the San Diego. If they came out of that race thinking it was the surface, then they wouldn't run him there again. They ship him East and give him a good win there to regain his prior reputation, then maybe retire instead of running in the BCC and risk losing there. Instead they ran there again, and plan to run there a third time.

It does no harm to Del Mar to say the horse doesn't like the surface. After all, they aren't criticizing the management, just a personal distaste by a horse that happens occasionally. Baffert nor Mike have any worry that Del Mar will punish them.

It's not 100%, but it's pretty close that really top-notch dirt horses can handle any dirt surface (as well as any condition of that surface). This horse had traveled to a number of tracks and handled with ease all of them.

Anyway, what you and others are suggesting is that the trainer, owner and jockey are all oblivious to something as easily discernible as a horse's like or dislike for a surface. That just isn't logical to me.

Andy Asaro
08-21-2017, 11:01 AM
This horse is a very valuable stallion prospect, and he has an extreme rarity going in his favor, which was the aura of a great and invincibility. The pressure to retain that is immense, so those managing the horse will/should do things that aren't done with the normal horse, which includes not running the horse over a surface that causes him to lose. This trainer didn't fall off the turnip truck yesterday and should well know when his horse really dislikes the surface. He ran the horse over the surface the first time, in the San Diego, and the result was the horse falling back to earth. It was an immense blow to his reputation, but not one that wasn't recoverable. So the trainer and the horse's managers look at all the possibilities for his next run, and what do they decide? To run him again on that same surface, despite there being other spots in which to run him. And now, despite a second loss on the surface, they are still talking of running him yet a third time over it, in the BCC.

If they have any inkling at all that the horse didn't like the surface, then they wouldn't run in the San Diego. If they came out of that race thinking it was the surface, then they wouldn't run him there again. They ship him East and give him a good win there to regain his prior reputation, then maybe retire instead of running in the BCC and risk losing there. Instead they ran there again, and plan to run there a third time.

It does no harm to Del Mar to say the horse doesn't like the surface. After all, they aren't criticizing the management, just a personal distaste by a horse that happens occasionally. Baffert nor Mike have any worry that Del Mar will punish them.

It's not 100%, but it's pretty close that really top-notch dirt horses can handle any dirt surface (as well as any condition of that surface). This horse had traveled to a number of tracks and handled with ease all of them.

Anyway, what you and others are suggesting is that the trainer, owner and jockey are all oblivious to something as easily discernible as a horse's like or dislike for a surface. That just isn't logical to me.

Breeders' Cup

Trainer/Jockey aren't oblivious they just say things privately that they won't say publicly. Not a new thing in Horse Racing.

This isn't the same surface they had last year

Fager Fan
08-21-2017, 11:36 AM
Breeders' Cup

Trainer/Jockey aren't oblivious they just say things privately that they won't say publicly. Not a new thing in Horse Racing.

This isn't the same surface they had last year

Why wouldn't they say? You really think they're more concerned about hurting Del Mar's feelings than protecting the reputation and value of their horse?

classhandicapper
08-21-2017, 11:49 AM
Look at his stride going by the stands the first time. It was a nice, smooth, extended stride. That's not a horse not liking the surface.

I see him as more of a grinder with some speed. I think he's a tad slower in terms of natural turn of foot than some other Grade 1 caliber horses. He beats them because he has more stamina and can sustain his speed longer than horses with more of it. If the race quickens, other faster horses may be able to get away from him. That gives you the illusion that he's struggling. Then when they start tiring and he starts gaining, it gives you the illusion that he's finally kicking in. But in reality he's just grinding away and can run all day at an excellent clip. I'd love to see this horse run 12F. I think he'd crush! But imo against really quick high level horses, when they all start making their move, a few may outrun him.

(which is of course why I think "sitting on CC" and waiting for Arrogate was a monumental error given that CC had excellent turn of foot and could have extended his lead late turn and into the stretch (just like Collected) and finished about the same given he was not exhausted at the end)

cj
08-21-2017, 11:53 AM
I see him as more of a grinder with some speed. I think he's a tad slower in terms of natural turn of foot than some other Grade 1 caliber horses. He beats them because he has more stamina and can sustain his speed longer than horses with more of it. If the race quickens, other faster horses may be able to get away from him. That gives you the illusion that he's struggling. Then when they start tiring and he starts gaining, it gives you the illusion that he's finally kicking in. But in reality he's just grinding away and can run all day at an excellent clip. I'd love to see this horse run 12F. I think he'd crush!

Seems that way, but he certainly had natural turn of foot in the Travers.

Andy Asaro
08-21-2017, 12:09 PM
Why wouldn't they say? You really think they're more concerned about hurting Del Mar's feelings than protecting the reputation and value of their horse?

It's a lot more than their feelings. It's about Del Mar and California Racing putting on a great show that handles big money. And it's about getting horses to come to California and run in preps for the Breeders' Cup

Augenj
08-21-2017, 12:30 PM
On number 2, I thought it is possible the people who say he doesn't like the track have a point. He was asked to run several tims and didn't respond. He is a competitor, so he finally tried to gut it out in the stretch, but this race totally looked like what a good horse who dislikes a surface might do.
I agree. However, that surface might change for the Breeders Cup since it seems that BC tracks suddenly get much faster than they normally run. Del Mar's deep cushion might just be rolled and watered down or whatever they do to make them faster.

GMB@BP
08-21-2017, 01:12 PM
I agree. However, that surface might change for the Breeders Cup since it seems that BC tracks suddenly get much faster than they normally run. Del Mar's deep cushion might just be rolled and watered down or whatever they do to make them faster.

it definitley plays a bit different in the fall versus summer. guess we will see what happens with this new track.

outofthebox
08-21-2017, 01:14 PM
This horse is a very valuable stallion prospect, and he has an extreme rarity going in his favor, which was the aura of a great and invincibility. The pressure to retain that is immense, so those managing the horse will/should do things that aren't done with the normal horse, which includes not running the horse over a surface that causes him to lose. This trainer didn't fall off the turnip truck yesterday and should well know when his horse really dislikes the surface. He ran the horse over the surface the first time, in the San Diego, and the result was the horse falling back to earth. It was an immense blow to his reputation, but not one that wasn't recoverable. So the trainer and the horse's managers look at all the possibilities for his next run, and what do they decide? To run him again on that same surface, despite there being other spots in which to run him. And now, despite a second loss on the surface, they are still talking of running him yet a third time over it, in the BCC.

If they have any inkling at all that the horse didn't like the surface, then they wouldn't run in the San Diego. If they came out of that race thinking it was the surface, then they wouldn't run him there again. They ship him East and give him a good win there to regain his prior reputation, then maybe retire instead of running in the BCC and risk losing there. Instead they ran there again, and plan to run there a third time.

It does no harm to Del Mar to say the horse doesn't like the surface. After all, they aren't criticizing the management, just a personal distaste by a horse that happens occasionally. Baffert nor Mike have any worry that Del Mar will punish them.

It's not 100%, but it's pretty close that really top-notch dirt horses can handle any dirt surface (as well as any condition of that surface). This horse had traveled to a number of tracks and handled with ease all of them.

Anyway, what you and others are suggesting is that the trainer, owner and jockey are all oblivious to something as easily discernible as a horse's like or dislike for a surface. That just isn't logical to me.Nice post. I will add that i never lost any respect for Easy Goer and Skip Away for their struggling over the Churchill Downs track. It does happen occasionally. For whatever reason, Smith has said that in both races at Del Mar, he has not pulled up with the same energy as his previous races.

woodbinepmi
08-21-2017, 01:16 PM
That is the point. He didn't not do a good job, he did a horrible job of it. It was almost painful to watch. If I owned the other horse I'd be following in Kaleem Shah's footsteps.

I'm still trying to figure out how he talked the owners of Cupid, romping winner of the G1 Santa Anita Gold Cup last out, into running in some weak ass overnight stakes this Wednesday.

Totally agree with you.

Valuist
08-21-2017, 01:25 PM
Never looked comfortable to me and had to be pushed along to get near the pace. He was swimming on the turn for home and didn't grab the surface till late stretch.

Most of us understand that Trainers and Jocks say one thing in public and something else privately. Del Mar is very sensitive about the surface. Fatalities are way down but soft tissue injuries way up. They don't want to have people believe that it's 50-50 that their horses may not like the surface. Anything said that might impact negatively impact field size for the next meet is discouraged IMIO.

To give you an example look at the whip rule in Ca. Stevens and Smith came out for it and were very vocal about it when lobbied by Bo Derek. They both came to regret that decision. Both have been fined several times and so have alot of other jockeys. They know they're gonna get fined for trying to hard but do it anyway. Crazy rule IMO

Hard to imagine Mike Smith lobbying for limitation in whip use. He's one of the best "wind-millers".

Fager Fan
08-21-2017, 03:53 PM
It's a lot more than their feelings. It's about Del Mar and California Racing putting on a great show that handles big money. And it's about getting horses to come to California and run in preps for the Breeders' Cup

So? Not their duty or responsibility. They care about one thing, and one thing only, and that's protecting the horse and investment. Baffert was shocked and distressed that he lost, both of these times. If he thought it was the surface, he wouldn't be running over it, or plan to try it again in November.

cj
08-21-2017, 03:55 PM
So? Not their duty or responsibility. They care about one thing, and one thing only, and that's protecting the horse and investment. Baffert was shocked and distressed that he lost, both of these times. If he thought it was the surface, he wouldn't be running over it, or plan to try it again in November.

That isn't really true. Arrogate will come and go, Baffert will have many more horses. He'll probably need a favor somewhere along the line.

Fager Fan
08-21-2017, 03:59 PM
Nice post. I will add that i never lost any respect for Easy Goer and Skip Away for their struggling over the Churchill Downs track. It does happen occasionally. For whatever reason, Smith has said that in both races at Del Mar, he has not pulled up with the same energy as his previous races.

I agree, it does happen occasionally, and for whatever reason, it seems when there's that one surface a horse doesn't like, it's usually CD.

dilanesp
08-21-2017, 04:32 PM
I agree, it does happen occasionally, and for whatever reason, it seems when there's that one surface a horse doesn't like, it's usually CD.

Yep. And the opposite happens too. Giacomo, for instance, really liked CD and moved up there.

cj
08-21-2017, 04:45 PM
Yep. And the opposite happens too. Giacomo, for instance, really liked CD and moved up there.

He got the dream trip of life to win the Derby in slow time (or speed figures, whatever) and ran a so so fourth in the BC Classic while never a factor.

Fager Fan
08-21-2017, 05:08 PM
That isn't really true. Arrogate will come and go, Baffert will have many more horses. He'll probably need a favor somewhere along the line.

There's no favor that Del Mar can possibly do that would be worth the devaluing of this stallion prospect in the millions of $.

No owner or trainer runs a horse like this as a favor to the track if it's not in the best interests of the owner and horse. It just ain't happening, Willis.

There's another story over at Paulick Report:

“For a while he looked like he was gonna have another flop so I was happy when he dug in,” Baffert said, watching the Pacific Classic replay of the tense moments when Arrogate was struggling to find his stride around the far turn. “That last eighth he was just throwing it down there – he wanted it badly. It's not the track or the surface – that's got nothing to do with it. He was still quiet beforehand, not his usual self, but I really think he can come back.”

And he may not even win the Older Male eclipse. Of course, it all comes down to who wins the Classic, but he's no longer a shoo-in and unbeatable, and Gun Runner is now voted the top horse in the country:

The recent Grade 1 Whitney winner Gun Runner took over first place for the first time in Week 30 of the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) Top Thoroughbred Poll for horses of all ages, results of which were released today.

Trained by Steve Asmussen for owners Winchell Thoroughbreds and Three Chimneys Farm, the multiple graded stakes winner Gun Runner(27 first-place votes, 394 points) moved up the ladder to first place after sitting second to Arrogate for the last 21 weeks. The Candy Ride colt won his second straight “Win and You're In” qualifying event for a berth in the Breeders' Cup Classic on Nov. 4 at Del Mar when he took the Stephen Foster (G1) in June and the Whitney two weeks ago.

Arrogate (10 first-place votes, 356 points), who has dominated the poll the first 29 weeks this year for trainer Bob Baffert and Juddmonte Farms, dropped down a notch to second after his runner-up finish behind stablemate Collected (ranked fourth with 235 points) in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic, a “Win and You're In” contest for a berth in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Arrogate, the leading earner in North American racing history, remains on target for the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Dahoss9698
08-21-2017, 05:20 PM
I can't believe anyone believes a word Baffert says ever. If he says it's surface, no way owners run in the Classic.

cj
08-21-2017, 05:25 PM
I can't believe anyone believes a word Baffert says ever. If he says it's surface, no way owners run in the Classic.

I not only never believe any trainer, I basically assume the opposite.

Dahoss9698
08-21-2017, 05:25 PM
I not only never believe any trainer, I basically assume the opposite.

Especially him.

GMB@BP
08-21-2017, 05:34 PM
Gun Runner....man, just so I have this on the record the next time I forsee him not getting a "candy" trip I am sending it in against him.

Maybe that is the classic, cause nothing has run at saratoga against him but when he faces real pace pressure, something he has not seen since the BC last year he is going to lose.

I will bet Collected against him straight up as I have at least seen Collected in some fast pace races and win.

rgustafson
08-21-2017, 09:20 PM
Gun Runner....man, just so I have this on the record the next time I forsee him not getting a "candy" trip I am sending it in against him.

Maybe that is the classic, cause nothing has run at saratoga against him but when he faces real pace pressure, something he has not seen since the BC last year he is going to lose.

I will bet Collected against him straight up as I have at least seen Collected in some fast pace races and win.

I'm assuming you are referring to the Dirt Mile when Tamarkuz blew right on by him down the stretch. That's when I went negative on him and I haven't changed my opinion yet.

castaway01
08-22-2017, 08:10 AM
Two observations about the $1M Pacific Classic, both involving Baffert, and both not good.

1. Did you see his reaction (and the reaction of his wife and son) after he ran ONE-TWO in the G1 Pacific Classic? Totally dejected, sad and his son, in anguish, swore (stay classy). I understand he wanted Arrogate to get back to form but WTF? You just ran one-two in the race. Only in America can a trainer accomplish this feat in a G1 and be upset about it. This bothered me.

2. Arrogate re-rally. Years ago, when Jamie Ness and Justin Evans were winning every other race at Canterbury, you could absolutely tell when their horses were drugged. They would be running in place on the far turn despite the rider "all-in". You felt their horse was beaten and then all of a sudden, the horse would kick in and win. It was actually very obvious to see if you looked for it. It is why these supertrainers like to send their runner to the lead because the drug works to reduce the fatigue factor. Thus you want the horse to be ahead when others start to fatigue in a normal way.

I'm not saying Arrogate was aided in this way but he looked absolutely stalled on the turn. He was being worked and then re-rallied. It looked illegitimate to me.

Getting back to the original point, I'm with you on number 1 but no way on number 2. I watched plenty of those horses re-break at Delaware over the years and that's not what happened here. Arrogate was working his tail off, climbing and struggling, not bouncing along with super juice powers.

cj
08-22-2017, 09:39 AM
Food for thought, when Arrogate was struggling to keep up, Collected was really doing some running. The TimeformUS Pace Figure after a half mile was 130, but after a mile was 138. That makes the second half mile figure a 146. The final time figure was 133, meaning the last quarter mile figure in isolation was only 108. That is when Arrogate started making up ground.

classhandicapper
08-22-2017, 10:14 AM
Seems that way, but he certainly had natural turn of foot in the Travers.

I agree he showed speed there, but he was already at his best and the rest of those 3yos were badly overmatched at that point.

How good were the horses he was outrunning and how hard were they trying to outrun him?

I don't think horses like American Freedom were even doing their best to outrun him early in the race. Once Smith went from the inside, saved the ground, and cut the first corner, they conceded the lead and rated. It's different late in the race when everyone is doing their best.

Augenj
08-22-2017, 10:49 AM
Food for thought, when Arrogate was struggling to keep up, Collected was really doing some running. The TimeformUS Pace Figure after a half mile was 130, but after a mile was 138. That makes the second half mile figure a 146. The final time figure was 133, meaning the last quarter mile figure in isolation was only 108. That is when Arrogate started making up ground.
Does this imply that Arrogate was knocking off fractions that were more or less even while Collected was slowing in the last quarter?

cj
08-22-2017, 11:14 AM
Does this imply that Arrogate was knocking off fractions that were more or less even while Collected was slowing in the last quarter?

Until the last quarter he was steadily losing ground to Collected. That said, yes, Arrogate ran a more "even" race. See attached.

dilanesp
08-22-2017, 12:29 PM
I'm assuming you are referring to the Dirt Mile when Tamarkuz blew right on by him down the stretch. That's when I went negative on him and I haven't changed my opinion yet.

He's looked really good since then.

I don't think Gun Runner is overrated. But I do think Collected is underrated (and cj's math seems to confirm this).

Andy Asaro
08-22-2017, 12:42 PM
Has anyone brought up the notion that Gunner Runner may not like the Del Mar surface either? It's one of those unknowns that you don't know till they do it.

Augenj
08-22-2017, 01:18 PM
Until the last quarter he was steadily losing ground to Collected. That said, yes, Arrogate ran a more "even" race. See attached.
Thanks. I can see that in your numbers.

Mc990
08-22-2017, 02:48 PM
Has anyone brought up the notion that Gunner Runner may not like the Del Mar surface either? It's one of those unknowns that you don't know till they do it.

The east/west BC ship has also been tough on horses the last 10 years... As a group they've been overbet. Hard to imagine GR's odds will reflect his actual chances.

Andy Asaro
08-22-2017, 02:50 PM
The east/west BC ship has also been tough on horses the last 10 years... As a group they've been overbet. Hard to imagine GR's odds will reflect his actual chances.

Given the unique surface it would probably be wise to toss any short price with no races over the surface.

dilanesp
08-22-2017, 02:57 PM
The east/west BC ship has also been tough on horses the last 10 years... As a group they've been overbet. Hard to imagine GR's odds will reflect his actual chances.

As of now, if I were to go to Las Vegas and bet the future book, I'd bet Collected.

But I would also say that I think Gun Runner and other eastern horses might very well like the new deeper, slower Del Mar surface and might make good bets on BC day. Gun Runner's disappointing mile race came at Santa Anita, which has the old-style harder surface.

GMB@BP
08-22-2017, 03:14 PM
As of now, if I were to go to Las Vegas and bet the future book, I'd bet Collected.

But I would also say that I think Gun Runner and other eastern horses might very well like the new deeper, slower Del Mar surface and might make good bets on BC day. Gun Runner's disappointing mile race came at Santa Anita, which has the old-style harder surface.

that was going to be my point. This track is probably closer to Belmont and Saratoga than it is to Santa Anita in terms of speed and depth, just listening to what trainers and riders say.