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CincyHorseplayer
08-20-2017, 02:35 PM
This isn't about a redboard or braggadocio. The last 2 Saturdays playing Saratoga/Arlington and Saratoga/Del Mar I have felt I have done some really good handicapping and the basic win numbers are great but I feel a horrible sense of underachievement. I feel like I am blindsided by landmines at Saratoga(fairly normal!). Finding wins but getting blown out of exotics left and right. Other than a few mediocre doubles I haven't hit any consecutive bets like pick 3-4. I was alive in the P4 to 3 last week and got consos when the last race got rained off the turf. I have had longshots win with zero exotics. I have had mostly medium prices get blown out or low paying exactas. I have hit absolutely zero tri's or supers. The only thing I have maintained is turning the trick with the exacta. Might be a few races a day where I even get to attempt it when there is a race that looks easy on paper and you go with 1-2 combinations but instead of the exacta paying $12-25 it's paying $35-45. I'll make 2% bankroll plays on these combinations. Last race at Del Mar yesterday I annihilated the $45 exacta. That has been the extent of my types of glory and a steady win/avg mutuel diet. But I just feel like I am not squeezing enough blood out of this turnip. Right there. On the edge, cusp, something.

I know you all have been through this. Is there any advice you can give me other than keep plugging away to leverage this?

Plays-win-place-show(most bets revolve around a win/place finish)

19-7-5-1

-37% win

-63% WP

-102% ROI

-1.650 OPS( horseplayer OPS add WP + ROI)

-11.93 avg mutuel

CincyHorseplayer
08-21-2017, 05:21 PM
Played horseshoes all day yesterday after the Saturday marathon session! Getting a buzz and playing from home today. 1 bet 1 loss. Think the :7: is going to romp in the 7th at Toga! Kill it boys! Lovin life!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgYuLsudaJQ

JohnGalt1
08-21-2017, 05:59 PM
We've all been there.

Sunday I was able to play 5 pick fours at Presque isle. they are the only track I know of that offers pick fours in all races

My horse(s) lost the 4th and 5th races killing all the pick fours.

I made 3 win bets, all won, so made a $27.50 profit.

CincyHorseplayer
08-21-2017, 06:08 PM
We've all been there.

Sunday I was able to play 5 pick fours at Presque isle. they are the only track I know of that offers pick fours in all races

My horse(s) lost the 4th and 5th races killing all the pick fours.

I made 3 win bets, all won, so made a $27.50 profit.

I was alive in a $5 pick 3 at Toga with a 30-1 and a 5-1 and got a nose loss in the middle leg at 7/2(I think!). That's the way the exotics have been NOT falling for me!

I like Presque Isle too. You sift through all these tracks to get a feel for them and discard what sucks for you. PID is bettor friendly IMO.

I was talking to the poster "Belmont" before the Toga meet and I said I was going to bet win heavy and play exotics sparingly but big. After many painful Augusts I have stuck to this and it has served me well. I chase rainbows and find them occasionally but there is nothing better than win bets at square prices that are findable!

CincyHorseplayer
08-22-2017, 05:04 AM
Why were there 3 deleted posts on this thread? I replied to one person's post and Replay Randall had one. I don't recall anything too bad from any of them. RR just said he private messaged me. What's going on gang?

CincyHorseplayer
08-27-2017, 04:03 AM
7-1-1-2 today.

But had exotics galore with P3, P4, and a bunch of double key exactas and tris.

But Saratoga rarely ever let's you do it all at one time! Havin fun and won $28.25 today !:D

green80
08-27-2017, 01:36 PM
skThis isn't about a redboard or braggadocio. The last 2 Saturdays playing Saratoga/Arlington and Saratoga/Del Mar I have felt I have done some really good handicapping and the basic win numbers are great but I feel a horrible sense of underachievement. I feel like I am blindsided by landmines at Saratoga(fairly normal!). Finding wins but getting blown out of exotics left and right. Other than a few mediocre doubles I haven't hit any consecutive bets like pick 3-4. I was alive in the P4 to 3 last week and got consos when the last race got rained off the turf. I have had longshots win with zero exotics. I have had mostly medium prices get blown out or low paying exactas. I have hit absolutely zero tri's or supers. The only thing I have maintained is turning the trick with the exacta. Might be a few races a day where I even get to attempt it when there is a race that looks easy on paper and you go with 1-2 combinations but instead of the exacta paying $12-25 it's paying $35-45. I'll make 2% bankroll plays on these combinations. Last race at Del Mar yesterday I annihilated the $45 exacta. That has been the extent of my types of glory and a steady win/avg mutuel diet. But I just feel like I am not squeezing enough blood out of this turnip. Right there. On the edge, cusp, something.

I know you all have been through this. Is there any advice you can give me other than keep plugging away to leverage this?

Plays-win-place-show(most bets revolve around a win/place finish)

19-7-5-1

-37% win

-63% WP

-102% ROI

-1.650 OPS( horseplayer OPS add WP + ROI)

-11.93 avg mutuel

Looks like you would be better off with straight win bets. Skip the exotics until you can show a + ROI with win bets. I would only consider a place bet with horses going off at around 10/1 or better then bet 1/2 unit win and 1/2 unit place. With a 37% win rate and 11.93 avg mutual, looks like you were able to turn a 100+ % ROI into a -102% with poor betting skills.

If I am reading your post correctly, If you can hit 7/19 winners with a $11.93 avg mutual you should have a +119% roi.

GMB@BP
08-27-2017, 01:47 PM
I think my handicapping has been ok, I am going to spreadsheet it out but I mostly bet win so its pretty simple.

I am down 45 dollars since the start of Saratoga/Del Mar.

I am getting raped on the turf course, in fact if I only bet dirt races I could go on a nice all expenses paid vacation with money won.

CincyHorseplayer
08-27-2017, 10:53 PM
sk

Looks like you would be better off with straight win bets. Skip the exotics until you can show a + ROI with win bets. I would only consider a place bet with horses going off at around 10/1 or better then bet 1/2 unit win and 1/2 unit place. With a 37% win rate and 11.93 avg mutual, looks like you were able to turn a 100+ % ROI into a -102% with poor betting skills.

If I am reading your post correctly, If you can hit 7/19 winners with a $11.93 avg mutual you should have a +119% roi.

Your first sentence, we were discussing prior to this meet and yes win bets are a big focus. For the year my AB contenders win 57% of the time and marginal contenders 32%. My cash rate on bet races has been over 50% this year. During this month my AB contenders have won 43% of the time and MC's have won 27%. Cash rate has been OK. I was 3 for 7 yesterday. But judgement calls have been the big difference. I just won't give in when there is a Chad Brown turf horse at 2-1. I just don't do it. I bet the other horse with what I think are relatively equal abilities but at 5-1. That's it. I cashed bets yesterday and only found 1 winner at 7-1 but I battled all day. I had a handle on the card. Just could not extract the big bucks from it! Saratoga is tough man!

CincyHorseplayer
08-27-2017, 10:59 PM
I think my handicapping has been ok, I am going to spreadsheet it out but I mostly bet win so its pretty simple.

I am down 45 dollars since the start of Saratoga/Del Mar.

I am getting raped on the turf course, in fact if I only bet dirt races I could go on a nice all expenses paid vacation with money won.

Brother I think I am a turf guy but they kick my ass and baffle me too! With Saratoga you have to remain steadfast. Bet big expectations look for chaos. I've gotten my wins but I am looking to crush the hell out of something! It's the fun part! Good work. I'm sure as an experienced player I don't have to say it but hanging around is the first virtue of a player in my mind. You are good enough to not lose. That is the launch pad.

CincyHorseplayer
08-27-2017, 11:06 PM
sk

Looks like you would be better off with straight win bets. Skip the exotics until you can show a + ROI with win bets. I would only consider a place bet with horses going off at around 10/1 or better then bet 1/2 unit win and 1/2 unit place. With a 37% win rate and 11.93 avg mutual, looks like you were able to turn a 100+ % ROI into a -102% with poor betting skills.

If I am reading your post correctly, If you can hit 7/19 winners with a $11.93 avg mutual you should have a +119% roi.

I separate bets. Basic 3 unit method 2 units win 1 unit place. Since Saratoga can be unforgiving I have skipped place bets and blast to win. This is one meet where when they win you best capitalize. All the other moving parts are spurious!

green80
08-28-2017, 02:52 PM
you are betting the toughest track in the country to try to win at. My winnings have always been better at the smaller tracks.

CincyHorseplayer
08-28-2017, 03:50 PM
you are betting the toughest track in the country to try to win at. My winnings have always been better at the smaller tracks.

It is tough. I just had a 2 length lead evaporate into a non cash in less than a 16th of a mile!

Overall my contender selection is worse than at every other track in the country combined. My win % over the years has been there at this meet though. But they are usually isolated events. My win place % has always been around 48% historically. At Toga it barely eclipses the win %. I have definitely learned to chuck it to win and play horizontals. It's the only thing that kept my sanity intact!