AROGATE dilemma

[lamboguy]

throwout the the last race and the phony race he ran in Dubai and he compares to the greats like DR. FAGER, SPECTACULAR BID and SEATTLE SLEW.

will he come back today and show up with another great race. i say at even money i will pay to find out.

[Robert Fischer]

I don't like this race.

I don't like how Arrogate ran as if he was 'all used up' last time.

If Lance Armstrong goes from burying competition to suddenly not even making it up a hill, I'm worried. Not only about Lance's 'form', but now I have to make dumb guesses about the viscosity of his blood, and all kinds of things that I don't know anything about.

I don't like that Collected (another Baffert horse who is running at a 'peak' level) is in the race. Collected is close enough (if both fire) that a good Collected trip can beat a troubled Arrogate trip.

I hope that Arrogate returns to form and runs huge.

I hope that you win, if you play.

[jay68802]

I keep thinking that the main goal is the BC Classic, the last race he was not ready, should be set to fire a good one here. But its not important race because of his main goal. But if you want 2-1 on the exacta, take the Baffert entries and swing away.

[AndyC]

I keep thinking that the main goal is the BC Classic, the last race he was not ready, should be set to fire a good one here. But its not important race because of his main goal. But if you want 2-1 on the exacta, take the Baffert entries and swing away.

What does not ready mean? If you owned a horse like Arrogate would you send him out to race at 70% or some % of ready where he fails to contend at any call? To me a horse that isn't ready would contend and then lose because they were lacking stamina in the stretch. I have yet to hear of a logical excuse for such a bad race and his subsequent workouts have not exactly made everybody believe that he will be "ready" today.

As a race fan, I would love to see the old Arrogate show up and put on an exhibition. As a bettor I would have no qualms betting against him

[GMB@BP]

I think if your a real horse player you are taking a stand one way or another. Either he is the overlay of the century, and I can see 7/5 or so with all the bad workout stuff.....or a great chance to bet against a horse coming off an 85 beyer in his last race. I will be playing against the horse, but will be very happy to see the old Arrogate.

[jay68802]

What does not ready mean? If you owned a horse like Arrogate would you send him out to race at 70% or some % of ready where he fails to contend at any call? To me a horse that isn't ready would contend and then lose because they were lacking stamina in the stretch. I have yet to hear of a logical excuse for such a bad race and his subsequent workouts have not exactly made everybody believe that he will be "ready" today.

As a race fan, I would love to see the old Arrogate show up and put on an exhibition. As a bettor I would have no qualms betting against him

2 slow works leading up to the race, now look at his works. 2 bullets ( 1 was 6f in 1.11) that was impressive, followed by a longer work of 7f, then a typical Baffert fast 4f drill. He did not have the fast drill before his last race, Baffert breaking a pattern, that alone sent up the warning flag.

[GMB@BP]

2 slow works leading up to the race, now look at his works. 2 bullets ( 1 was 6f in 1.11) that was impressive, followed by a longer work of 7f, then a typical Baffert fast 4f drill. He did not have the fast drill before his last race, Baffert breaking a pattern, that alone sent up the warning flag.

and now I hear training up to the BC if he runs well....I dont know on this Del Mar surface which is deep and demanding that you would use that plan. I think its going to be something I use as a play against, the 2 month + breaks into BC races due to this track.

[Ian Meyers]

2 slow works leading up to the race, now look at his works. 2 bullets ( 1 was 6f in 1.11) that was impressive, followed by a longer work of 7f, then a typical Baffert fast 4f drill. He did not have the fast drill before his last race, Baffert breaking a pattern, that alone sent up the warning flag.

According to people that saw it, the last work wasn't great, and he didn't want to change leads. Maybe he just doesn't like the surface, but he sure doesn't seem like the monster we saw this year at GP or in Dubai.

[JustRalph]

I'd be worried that this horse has figured out he doesn't have to run. It might be a mental problem.

[Ian Meyers]

I'd be worried that this horse has figured out he doesn't have to run. It might be a mental problem.


Good point. He just might not want to do this anymore.

Would I be shocked if he won today? No. I would be surprised though if we saw a monster 119 Beyer-type effort from him. I think he's a good bet against if he goes off < even money.

[Secondbest]

Tom Amoss just said he did not like Arrogates last work at all. When asked he said he would not bet him off of it.

[GMB@BP]

Tom Amoss just said he did not like Arrogates last work at all. When asked he said he would not bet him off of it.

Yea, he kinda shat all over him.

I just dont see Baffert running a horse that isnt good, especially this horse.

mixed feelings but as a better I need to play against.

[lamboguy]

Tom Amoss just said he did not like Arrogates last work at all. When asked he said he would not bet him off of it.the only thing ARROGATE did wrong was not change leads in the work. up until the last 2 races he has never done a thing wrong in his races.

its a tough call to make, to bet ARROGATE i need even money or better. otherwise i will watch.

[AndyC]

2 slow works leading up to the race, now look at his works. 2 bullets ( 1 was 6f in 1.11) that was impressive, followed by a longer work of 7f, then a typical Baffert fast 4f drill. He did not have the fast drill before his last race, Baffert breaking a pattern, that alone sent up the warning flag.

We are talking about the "best horse in the world" not an allowance horse. Baffert breaking pattern shouldn't equal an out-of-the-money performance. While the times of the workouts might be impressive I have heard that it wasn't done with the kind of ease shown by him in the past. Like I said, I hope he runs a huge race. I have never lost any sleep passing on an even money horse regardless of how easy they may win.

[jimmyb]

45 minute lag time between races. And people complain about baseball.

[dilanesp]

45 minute lag time between races. And people complain about baseball.

I'm here. There's no 45 minute delay.

[Rex Phinney]

Got to take a shot with Accelerate.

[jimmyb]

Arrogate still looks thin and lethargic.

[Secondbest]

Bob did not sound confident. Going with a bomb . Curlin Road

[dilanesp]

Bob ran 1-2 :)

[jimmyb]

I'm here. There's no 45 minute delay.

The time on my ADW was off

[dilanesp]

Arrogate covered 51 feet more ground and lost by 1/2 length.

[luisbe]

Bob ran 1-2 :)
Nice payday but, happy?

[jimmyb]

Arrogate covered 51 feet more ground and lost by 1/2 length.

Still, he's not his old self.

[Secondbest]

Bob ran 1-2 :)

Yes he did. I thought for a second he might roll bye.He ran well but not like the best horse in the world.

[Dahoss9698]

Still, he's not his old self.

Disagree. He HATES that track and still made it close.

The real dilemma is that the BC is at Del Mar this year. He would've won the Woodward by a pole.

[zico20]

Smith hinted at the fact that Arrogate isn't fond of the surface. It looked that way to me.

[Fager Fan]

I keep thinking that the main goal is the BC Classic, the last race he was not ready, should be set to fire a good one here. But its not important race because of his main goal. But if you want 2-1 on the exacta, take the Baffert entries and swing away.

Believe me, every race was very important for this horse.

[Secondbest]

Disagree. He HATES that track and still made it close.

The real dilemma is that the BC is at Del Mar this year. He would've won the Woodward by a pole.

I agree. He is not at Del Mar a horse for the course.

[dilanesp]

Disagree. He HATES that track and still made it close.

The real dilemma is that the BC is at Del Mar this year. He would've won the Woodward by a pole.

If he really hates the Dmr dirt, they should try grass.

[Fager Fan]

Disagree. He HATES that track and still made it close.

The real dilemma is that the BC is at Del Mar this year. He would've won the Woodward by a pole.

I'm not sure that it's the track. A horse doesn't usually work bullets or easily over a surface they dislike. You can tell in one work usually if a horse doesn't like the surface.

I suspected he may have bone bruising or something up physically after his San Diego debacle. They declared him to have a clean bill of health so quickly that they couldn't have done a bone scan on him. Add in him not changing leads right in his last work. I'd send him in for a thorough exam and bone scan.

[Dahoss9698]

I'm not sure that it's the track. A horse doesn't usually work bullets or easily over a surface they dislike. You can usually tell in one work usually if a horse doesn't like the surface.

I suspected he may have bone bruising or something up physically after his San Diego debacle. They declared him to have a clean bill of health so quickly that they couldn't have done a bone scan on him. Add in him not changing leads right in his last work. I'd send him in for a thorough exam and bone scan.

He didn't change leads but worked easily. Got it.

[jimmyb]

I agree. He is not at Del Mar a horse for the course.
If so, he's in trouble but I'm still going with he looked thin and off. He should be eating these horses for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

The arrogate of Dubai could race on beach sand and it wouldn't have mattered. He still would have kicked butt.

[Grits]

Smith hinted at the fact that Arrogate isn't fond of the surface. It looked that way to me.

This wasn't all that Smith hinted at. He didn't sound, in any way, as optimistic (or as confident) as Baffert, post race. The two men had obviously not yet spoken before they were asked to comment.

I didn't feel he was in it going down the backside. He was left with a lot to make up. With this, with his last performance, and the BC at DelMar, it wouldn't be surprising to me if he is retired, prior.

[jettroofer]

@ Grits

I understand what you are saying but he ran near hoof to hoof with possibly the 2nd or 3rd best horse in form right now (gunrunner) and you really think he should be retired? It appears he is having to earn it at this point for whatever reason but he won't see much better than Collected in the BC Classic so why would he not run?

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/899080242223996928

[dilanesp]

@ Grits

I understand what you are saying but he ran near hoof to hoof with possibly the 2nd or 3rd best horse in form right now (gunrunner) and you really think he should be retired? It appears he is having to earn it at this point for whatever reason but he won't see much better than Collected in the BC Classic so why would he not run?

I suspect one thing we will find out down the line is that Collected is better than Gun Runner.

[dilanesp]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/899080242223996928

I don't buy this. Grasping at straws.

[Nitro]

A Great horse? Something like those GREAT runners of days gone by? B.S.!

And all this nonsense about Arrogate not handling the Del Mar surface!
Give me a break!

Truly GREAT horses not only handle ANY surface, but as John Piesen (R.I.P) once said after Seattle Slew overcame a horrendous start in the KY Derby, “They don’t make excuses for running into problems. They overcome them with incredible performances and Win in spite of them”.

A Truth for the ages when it comes to Classifying the top echelon of the Best competitive horses.

[Dahoss9698]

I suspect one thing we will find out down the line is that Collected is better than Gun Runner.

Only if Gun Runner doesn't like Del Mar like Arrogate doesn't.

[Dahoss9698]

A Great horse? Something like those GREAT runners of days gone by? B.S.!

And all this nonsense about Arrogate not handling the Del Mar surface!
Give me a break!

Truly GREAT horses not only handle ANY surface, but as John Piesen (R.I.P) once said after Seattle Slew overcame a horrendous start in the KY Derby, “They don’t make excuses for running into problems. They overcome them with incredible performances and Win in spite of them”.

A Truth for the ages when it comes to Classifying the top echelon of the Best competitive horses.

Big font means business. Did you box the field and hit the tri?

[dilanesp]

Only if Gun Runner doesn't like Del Mar like Arrogate doesn't.

I don't think you realize just how good Collected's last 3 races have been.

[cj]

Baffert should send him to the Woodward. No point trying the Awesome Again, he has 27 other horses for that race.

[Dahoss9698]

I don't think you realize just how good Collected's last 3 races have been.

I think you have a west coast inferiority complex.

[Dahoss9698]

Baffert should send him to the Woodward. No point trying the Awesome Again, he has 27 other horses for that race.

JCGC I think you mean. Woodward is Labor Day.

You would know best...how do Arrogate's Dem Mar races match up with his others on your figs?

[Pick6]

It seems most here expected Arrogate to win by open lengths, but seem to forget his last race over this surface. Give Baffert some time and he will have the horse ready for the BCC. Could be the value bet of the year.

Also seemed the pools had Arrogate win or nowhere, the $9.60 exacta was nice.

[cj]

JCGC I think you mean. Woodward is Labor Day.

You would know best...how do Arrogate's Dem Mar races match up with his others on your figs?

Yeah, you're right of course, JCGC.

His last was terrible. Today was obviously better but I won't have the figure until tonight or tomorrow. With the only dirt route being the Pacific Classic it will be a bit of a tricky day.

[dilanesp]

I think you have a west coast inferiority complex.

Really? Have you watched those races?

Collected is REALLY good. Mark my words.

[Dahoss9698]

Really? Have you watched those races?

Collected is REALLY good. Mark my words.

I'm not saying he's not really good. But have you ever said a nice thing about anything east coast?

[Pick6]

Really? Have you watched those races?

Collected is REALLY good. Mark my words.

Agree, IMO Collected ran about as good today as anybody not named Arrogate this year.

Give Arrogate a rail trip and he runs 2:00, which would have won the race, but a notch or 2 below his best.

[Robert Fischer]

Agree, IMO Collected ran about as good today as anybody not named Arrogate this year.

Give Arrogate a rail trip and he runs 2:00, which would have won the race, but a notch or 2 below his best.

I don't disagree.

A lot of fans are lamenting that something is wrong with Arrogate. I think many seem to be stuck on the outcome, and the story from the San Diego, as well as not noticing Collected.

Both serious race horses, and Arrogate slightly out-performed Collected today in the loss.

[dilanesp]

I'm not saying he's not really good. But have you ever said a nice thing about anything east coast?

Of course I have. I've said nice things about Lady Eli in the recent past and probably the last eastern star I loved was Mucho Macho Man. Unfortunately the East Coast handicap division has been pretty weak lately.

[Fager Fan]

He didn't change leads but worked easily. Got it.

The first two of his 3 past works were described as nice works. In his last work, he fought to change leads. So it's the first two works I'm talking about. And not changing leads correctly is far more likely to be indicative of a physical issue, not distaste for the track surface.

[lamboguy]

i'd say that after running in the San Diego ARROGATE'S effort was huge today. not sure if he or anything else will come close to GUNRUNNER now.

[outofthebox]

112Beyer?

[Grits]

@ Grits

I understand what you are saying but he ran near hoof to hoof with possibly the 2nd or 3rd best horse in form right now (gunrunner) and you really think he should be retired? It appears he is having to earn it at this point for whatever reason but he won't see much better than Collected in the BC Classic so why would he not run?

If you will, please, reread my post. I didn't write that I think Arrogate should be retired. I wrote the following:

I didn't feel he was in it going down the backside. He was left with a lot to make up. With this, with his last performance, and the BC at DelMar, it wouldn't be surprising to me if he is retired, prior. I would add, if Gun Runner's Whitney, last Saturday, and Arrogate's Pacific Classic, tonight, were placed side by side for handicapping's sake? At this point, my wager, no doubt, would be on Gun Runner.

Collected is no Gun Runner and Arrogate is not the same Arrogate. But, this is only my opinion.

[Dahoss9698]

Of course I have. I've said nice things about Lady Eli in the recent past and probably the last eastern star I loved was Mucho Macho Man. Unfortunately the East Coast handicap division has been pretty weak lately.

Yes...4 months ago you said something nice about Lady Eli. Mucho Mach Man was like 4 years ago.

The defense rests.

[Dahoss9698]

The first two of his 3 past works were described as nice works. In his last work, he fought to change leads. So it's the first two works I'm talking about. And not changing leads correctly is far more likely to be indicative of a physical issue, not distaste for the track surface.

How about lower speed figures at Del Mar? What would that be an indication of?

Obviously I'm not as astute as you at judging things on video :rolleyes: but when I see Arrogate at Saratoga, Gulfstream, Meydan I see a smooth stride and a horse eating up ground. At Del Mar he seems to be climbing the entire race IMO.

[GMB@BP]

Man gun runner is really good, and feel a tad bit vindicated as I bet him all last year to no avail. While gun runner is legit he is being overvalued based on 3 straight candy trips completely loose on the lead. I would argue Collected had a much tougher trip then Gun Runner has had since the breeders cup. Collected has never lost on a fast track and has run plenty fast.

[GMB@BP]

How about lower speed figures at Del Mar? What would that be an indication of?

Obviously I'm not as astute as you at judging things on video :rolleyes: but when I see Arrogate at Saratoga, Gulfstream, Meydan I see a smooth stride and a horse eating up ground. At Del Mar he seems to be climbing the entire race IMO.

I think it's deeper than that, he lost a lot of weight after Dubai and had trouble putting it back on. This is usually when a horse gets turned out for a while but that s not the option they had. I don't know if we ever see the real Arrogate again, I do know his best drowns everything in this Country.

[dilanesp]

Yes...4 months ago you said something nice about Lady Eli. Mucho Mach Man was like 4 years ago.

The defense rests.

Who, exactly, are the star horses I have been missing?

[woodbinepmi]

Looks to me that he has lost interest in running, after so many races they figure it out and put in a top effort when they want to. He still has his marbles, so that might be what's on his mind now.

[Dahoss9698]

Who, exactly, are the star horses I have been missing?

You think Saratoga is a dump, but avoided my question of when the last time you were there not once but twice. You crapped on Holy Bull's Travers. You want me to keep going?

Are you seriously acting like you don't have a big bias? Come on. I'm biased too, but I can admit it. You're ALWAYS anti anything east of California.

[JustRalph]

Looked like a short horse to me

He may get a nice bump out of this race

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Arrogate was so disinterested for most of the race like his last, but he eventually showed a spark again even after he was led into the ass of another.

Not sure he is 100% back, but he ran well enough for serious consideration as the 6/5 chalk in the BC Classic.

[menifee]

Man gun runner is really good, and feel a tad bit vindicated as I bet him all last year to no avail. While gun runner is legit he is being overvalued based on 3 straight candy trips completely loose on the lead. I would argue Collected had a much tougher trip then Gun Runner has had since the breeders cup. Collected has never lost on a fast track and has run plenty fast.

I also think it is pretty evident that Gun Runner's best distance is a mile and an eighth. A mile and a quarter may be too far.

What's troubling for me about Arrogate is how he has worked. His work before the San Diego was pretty bad. Then he worked pretty well, then he was goofy in his last work before this race. Here are the theories I've heard: Dubai, doesn't like Delmar, doesn't want to race anymore, undiagnosed medical issue, Baffert screwed him up by racing him in San Diego, etc.

My personal opinion is that he's just cycled out of form. It happens all the time to horses. 3500 claimers and G1 superstars.

[clocker7]

Quite a bit of courage, I think.

[dilanesp]

You think Saratoga is a dump, but avoided my question of when the last time you were there not once but twice. You crapped on Holy Bull's Travers. You want me to keep going?

Are you seriously acting like you don't have a big bias? Come on. I'm biased too, but I can admit it. You're ALWAYS anti anything east of California.

I don't need to go to a dump every year. I will go again when they tear it down and put up something modern and beautiful.

Why should I be a masochist?

[dilanesp]

Arrogate was so disinterested for most of the race like his last, but he eventually showed a spark again even after he was led into the ass of another.

Not sure he is 100% back, but he ran well enough for serious consideration as the 6/5 chalk in the BC Classic.

I agree with this. Arrogate went way wide and and only decided to run for 3/16th of a mile. Given that he ran a very good race.

[Fager Fan]

I agree with this. Arrogate went way wide and and only decided to run for 3/16th of a mile. Given that he ran a very good race.

Not when just 5 weeks ago he was one of the greatest ever and no horse could challenge him.

[Dahoss9698]

I don't need to go to a dump every year. I will go again when they tear it down and put up something modern and beautiful.

Why should I be a masochist?

Now we're getting somewhere. I knew you hadn't been in awhile and were just doing the usual anti anything not California thing you do.

Still want to pretend you don't have an inferiority thing going?

[Dahoss9698]

Beyers for Pacific Classic

Collected-115
Arrogate- 114

[Tom]

Not when just 5 weeks ago he was one of the greatest ever and no horse could challenge him.

The Big A jinxed him.

[GMB@BP]

Beyers for Pacific Classic

Collected-115
Arrogate- 114

Thats about what I was thinking right after I saw the final time. I do think the track was a tick faster yesterday than previous days but anything in that 200 minute range was going to be a good figure.

[burnsy]

My personal opinion is that he's just cycled out of form. It happens all the time to horses. 3500 claimers and G1 superstars.

He definitely has lost his edge. The funny thing is reading that he ran a "good" race...........the last two races were terrible by Arrogates standards. He's wide, he's giving up ground, if you look at his head and face, he looks disinterested. He'll get a good number by running the race because he's fast, physically (appearances), he looked like one hot mess. That's why I love watching replays. He's the kind of horse that should beat those being about at 90% training tilt. He doesn't look the same, something is up with this horse. Betting those kind at 6-5 is a disaster. The wheels have not completely fallen off, but he needs a turn around and if he's not sick or hurt they are too heavily invested to stop racing him at this point. Very vulnerable at the price he offers on the board. Baffert gotta work some more magic. He should own this division by default if he were the same horse as a few months ago.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/christopherado/status/899286965551374336

[AndyC]

I agree with this. Arrogate went way wide and and only decided to run for 3/16th of a mile. Given that he ran a very good race.

If you trained the "greatest horse in the world", would you instruct the jockey to save as much ground as possible or would you instruct him to keep the horse in the clear to avoid all possible problems?

[NY BRED]

Very few t breds run to their prior form after returning
from Dubai. Arrogate's win was incredible after being f'd up at the gate by
the crew and his race within the race.

I know criticisms will now be posted after this statement, but regardless,
Bob's statements during the past week aren't laced with joy,
and frankly, what more does Arrogate have to prove?

It is time to retire Arrogate and let hm roll out the $$ as a stud
rather than target winning the Classic and lose or potentially
face injury or a worse event.

Bob's wife considers Arrogate to be family, enough said.

[Andy Asaro]

Arrogate never looked comfortable during the race. Remarkable that he ran as well as he did.

[classhandicapper]

I thought Arrogate more or less ran his race. He was close up to two very high quality speed horses 1st turn while 3 wide, couldn't stay with them 2nd turn, and then was slowly getting to them in the stretch.

Arrogate does not have push button speed. He's more of a grinder with a ton of stamina. I think that's partially why he looks a little uncomfortable at times on the turns.

The race kind of reminded of the BC Classic with a couple of subtle differences.

1. On BC Classic day I thought the races had more of an outside flow than yesterday at DMR. I doubt losing some ground relative to CC was much of an issue BC day, but it might have made a difference yesterday because he was close up on the 1st turn.

2. IMO Collected was ridden the correct way. Garcia asked Collected into the stretch. He was trying to get away from Accelerate and put as much ground between himself and Arrogate as he could instead of sitting on him until the 1/8th pole. As a result, he still had 2 1/2 lengths at the 1/8 pole. That was enough to hold him off. IMO, had he sat and sat he wouldn't have finished much better and he would have gotten caught late like CC instead.

Arrogate is a tremendous racehorse, but as spectacular as he was in Dubai against Gun Runner, I think his race has been overrated. Horses were winning and running well from far back and on the far outside paths all day at Dubai. That track was not playing like the typical US track where getting left and circling was some kind of monumental obstacle. I said it at the time and I still think it. Great race, but exaggerated.

His Travers was awesome, but it was against other 3yos that had yet to reach their peaks (like Gun Runner & possibly Connect) and Shaman Ghost/Neolithic are very good horses, but not world beating Grade 1 horses.

His race yesterday was very good and likely to make him the mild favorite in a very strong Classic field unless someone breaks out further.

[dilanesp]

Now we're getting somewhere. I knew you hadn't been in awhile and were just doing the usual anti anything not California thing you do.

Still want to pretend you don't have an inferiority thing going?

I took a photo of the sunset photo over the Del Mar beach after the 11th race yesterday. There were tons of beautiful women in dresses. And great horse racing.

Now overall, Saratoga has BETTER racing. I totally concede that. But I would have to go to a remote town in upstate New York and possibly endure bad weather and sit in a crowded creaky grandstand with a poor view of the track to see it. And no sunset over the beach, and fewer beautiful women in dresses.

Why would I want to do that.

BTW I love both Belmont and Aqueduct and go every time I am in NYC.

[castaway01]

He definitely has lost his edge. The funny thing is reading that he ran a "good" race...........the last two races were terrible by Arrogates standards. He's wide, he's giving up ground, if you look at his head and face, he looks disinterested. He'll get a good number by running the race because he's fast, physically (appearances), he looked like one hot mess. That's why I love watching replays. He's the kind of horse that should beat those being about at 90% training tilt. He doesn't look the same, something is up with this horse. Betting those kind at 6-5 is a disaster. The wheels have not completely fallen off, but he needs a turn around and if he's not sick or hurt they are too heavily invested to stop racing him at this point. Very vulnerable at the price he offers on the board. Baffert gotta work some more magic. He should own this division by default if he were the same horse as a few months ago.

This is spot on. Arrogate had a tremendous peak, but now he's past it. What you do with him in the BC at 6-5 is you toss him as far as possible out of your tickets and hope Baffert doesn't find (ahem) the magic elixir to get his old form back.

[dilanesp]

If you trained the "greatest horse in the world", would you instruct the jockey to save as much ground as possible or would you instruct him to keep the horse in the clear to avoid all possible problems?

I don't really like the 3 wide around 2 turns ride.It works when the horse is much the best, but you lose a ton of ground.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I don't think he's past his peak. I think he is just a slow starter to get into peak form. He didn't blow us away til last August of his 3yo season. Then reeled off magic. Took a lengthy break. And by the figs looks like he is rounding into form. I'm not going to question the best trainer of my lifetime(IMO) but I'd really like to see him have another race before the BC Classic.

[Fager Fan]

Very few t breds run to their prior form after returning
from Dubai. Arrogate's win was incredible after being f'd up at the gate by
the crew and his race within the race.

I know criticisms will now be posted after this statement, but regardless,
Bob's statements during the past week aren't laced with joy,
and frankly, what more does Arrogate have to prove?

It is time to retire Arrogate and let hm roll out the $$ as a stud
rather than target winning the Classic and lose or potentially
face injury or a worse event.

Bob's wife considers Arrogate to be family, enough said.

I've always hated the "what more does a horse have to prove?" mantra. Really? The horse has run like 5 graded stakes. He has plenty more to prove, like soundness and longevity and being able to run at a top level for longer than a calendar year.

If we want to stop racing horses because they could be injured, then let's just put up the For Sale sign on racing now. We need stars to race longer, not have fans be satisfied to see them about as long as they see tomorrow's Eclipse.

[Dahoss9698]

I took a photo of the sunset photo over the Del Mar beach after the 11th race yesterday. There were tons of beautiful women in dresses. And great horse racing.

Now overall, Saratoga has BETTER racing. I totally concede that. But I would have to go to a remote town in upstate New York and possibly endure bad weather and sit in a crowded creaky grandstand with a poor view of the track to see it. And no sunset over the beach, and fewer beautiful women in dresses.

Why would I want to do that.

BTW I love both Belmont and Aqueduct and go every time I am in NYC.

With all due respect I'm not interested in your opinion on Saratoga. I just knew you haven't been in awhile...if ever.

I also know you've got a MAJOR west coast inferiority complex. It is what it is.

[cj]

I took a photo of the sunset photo over the Del Mar beach after the 11th race yesterday. There were tons of beautiful women in dresses. And great horse racing.

Now overall, Saratoga has BETTER racing. I totally concede that. But I would have to go to a remote town in upstate New York and possibly endure bad weather and sit in a crowded creaky grandstand with a poor view of the track to see it. And no sunset over the beach, and fewer beautiful women in dresses.

Why would I want to do that.

BTW I love both Belmont and Aqueduct and go every time I am in NYC.

The women thing is ridiculous. Been to both places several times and beautiful women are at both, and pretty much any place I go. Aren't all women beautiful? If you don't think so, you aren't looking hard enough.

And really, he is going to a racetrack to look at women anyway?

[dilanesp]

The women thing is ridiculous. Been to both places several times and beautiful women are at both, and pretty much any place I go. Aren't all women beautiful? If you don't think so, you aren't looking hard enough.

And really, he is going to a racetrack to look at women anyway?

What else are you going to do when you pass a race?

And really, no, upstate NY women don't compare to San Diego.

[dilanesp]

With all due respect I'm not interested in your opinion on Saratoga. I just knew you haven't been in awhile...if ever.

I also know you've got a MAJOR west coast inferiority complex. It is what it is.

I have been to Saratoga several times. I stopped going in the late 1990's, because I didn't like the place. But I gave it plenty of chances because a lot of other people I know love the place (including my mother).

[Grits]

What else are you going to do when you pass a race?

And really, no, upstate NY women don't compare to San Diego.

DILANE. SHUT. UP. :pound:

You really believe only upstate NY women are at Saratoga Racecourse? You roll out this crap out about every three years. Same old, same old.

What you know about Saratoga Springs, NY wouldn't span the head of a pin. What you know about the National Historic Register of Places, and what is required for these buildings, private homes, neighborhoods, etc to remain as such...is even less.

(The track has long been on the Historic Register and the grandstand is not creaky. If it didn't collapse when Rachel won the Woodward, it ain't gonna.)

[Dahoss9698]

I have been to Saratoga several times. I stopped going in the late 1990's, because I didn't like the place. But I gave it plenty of chances because a lot of other people I know love the place (including my mother).

So it's been 20 or so years since you've been there. You don't think the place might have been upgraded a touch?

[dilanesp]

So it's been 20 or so years since you've been there. You don't think the place might have been upgraded a touch?

I'm sure it has been (for instance, I believe they installed more benches behind the grandstand, and the paddock and saddling area is far more organized than it used to be).

But the things I really disliked were not things that could be fixed with "upgrades". For instance, the grandstand is a terrible place to watch a race, because of all the posts and obstructions and the low angle to the track, and because of all the trees and obstructions in the infield. Well, the grandstand is still there and now there are more obstructions in the infield.

The upstairs betting windows were cramped and crowded. They still are, because there's no way that NYRA could expand them.

Indeed, I know about the crowds, because I know people who go there every year and like it. And they report it is just as crowded on big race days as it always was, and that it was a particular zoo on American Pharoah's Travers day.

I think Saratoga was built to handle about 10,000 people semi-comfortably by late 19th Century standards. We now are in the 21st Century and the crowds have gotten much larger. The track deserves a plant that provides comfort and amenities for the large crowds.

Del Mar saw these same trends in the late 1980's and tore down its 1930's grandstand, which was cramped and limited on-track crowds to about 23,000, and replaced it with a facility that is incredibly comfortable and can accomodate the big crowds no problem. The seats were filled yesterday for the Pacific Classic, and EVERYTHING ran smoothly. It was easy to bet, easy to get food and drink, and easy to get around the plant or down to the paddock, apron, or infield. And everything at Del Mar is beautiful and modern.

When Saratoga builds a bright new facility that can accomodate the big crowds, I will fly out for opening day. But I don't like the current setup at all and consider it irredeemable.

As I said, though, I love Aqueduct and Belmont. Great places to watch a horse race. You guys have two world class racetrack plants. Neither of them is Saratoga.

[Fager Fan]

I'm an East coaster and my favorite track is Del Mar. All you Saratoga lovers can have it. It has better horses due to having a far bigger population, but the track and surroundings are superior at Del Mar.

But the best track is one that really doesn't count for this conversation, and that is Hialeah. You can stand on an upper floor and look at the entire paddock, then just turn around and see the entire track, complete with Flamingoes. And no obstructions in either view.

[lamboguy]

the best part of Saratogo Race Track is they give you the biggest pools to bet into day in and day out,

the place is very pretty and you are up close to the paddock if you want, or you can sit under a tree and catch the shade.

the bad part is if you have to go to the bathrooms, there are puddles of water in them, at least that was the case 3 years ago when i went. other than that its a nice place with plenty of history and good banjo players.


i only go to the track twice a year now, The Haskell at Monmouth which i really like, and the Breeders Cup in California. so far i have had a great time when it has been in Santa Anita. this year i will give Del Mar a shot for the first time in my life.

[cj]

I'm sure it has been (for instance, I believe they installed more benches behind the grandstand, and the paddock and saddling area is far more organized than it used to be).

But the things I really disliked were not things that could be fixed with "upgrades". For instance, the grandstand is a terrible place to watch a race, because of all the posts and obstructions and the low angle to the track, and because of all the trees and obstructions in the infield. Well, the grandstand is still there and now there are more obstructions in the infield.

The upstairs betting windows were cramped and crowded. They still are, because there's no way that NYRA could expand them.

Indeed, I know about the crowds, because I know people who go there every year and like it. And they report it is just as crowded on big race days as it always was, and that it was a particular zoo on American Pharoah's Travers day.

I think Saratoga was built to handle about 10,000 people semi-comfortably by late 19th Century standards. We now are in the 21st Century and the crowds have gotten much larger. The track deserves a plant that provides comfort and amenities for the large crowds.

Del Mar saw these same trends in the late 1980's and tore down its 1930's grandstand, which was cramped and limited on-track crowds to about 23,000, and replaced it with a facility that is incredibly comfortable and can accomodate the big crowds no problem. The seats were filled yesterday for the Pacific Classic, and EVERYTHING ran smoothly. It was easy to bet, easy to get food and drink, and easy to get around the plant or down to the paddock, apron, or infield. And everything at Del Mar is beautiful and modern.

When Saratoga builds a bright new facility that can accomodate the big crowds, I will fly out for opening day. But I don't like the current setup at all and consider it irredeemable.

As I said, though, I love Aqueduct and Belmont. Great places to watch a horse race. You guys have two world class racetrack plants. Neither of them is Saratoga.

Second lowest crowd in Pacific Classic history.

[cj]

What else are you going to do when you pass a race?

And really, no, upstate NY women don't compare to San Diego.

Since I'm no longer 14, there are plenty of other things to do.

[Dahoss9698]

I like to base my opinions on things I last saw 20 years ago.

[Parkview_Pirate]

I've always hated the "what more does a horse have to prove?" mantra. Really? The horse has run like 5 graded stakes. He has plenty more to prove, like soundness and longevity and being able to run at a top level for longer than a calendar year.

If we want to stop racing horses because they could be injured, then let's just put up the For Sale sign on racing now. We need stars to race longer, not have fans be satisfied to see them about as long as they see tomorrow's Eclipse.

Well, one could argue that a horse that's won $17+ M has less to prove than most. As for soundness and longevity, until the sport outlaws race day meds, drastically reduces purses for two and three year olds, and similar steps, those are two factors that are less important.

The fans would love to see horses have longer careers, but it's not the fans calling the shots. I don't like to see a horse retire early, but the economics of "protecting" a horse's initial stud value seem to trump pleasing the fans. And it's a double whammy if you're talking about a horse that will pass on brilliant win early, but less than sound genes.

[Redboard]

I believe it’s either (A) The Dubai curse—he wouldn’t be the first to not be the same horse when returning from Dubai. His stretch run there, where he passed the entire field, could have unfortunately been his swan song. Or (B) He just hates the Delmar surface, for some unknown reason.

“A” seems to me to be much more likely than “B.” We know his likes the Santa Anita surface and many this meet have run on both without problems, at least I haven’t heard many trainers blaming the surface. But "B" is possible, let’s for a second assume it is “B.” So what do you do with him?

Why not run in him the JCGC and see how he does? If he flops then put him out for a long rest; if he wins convincingly then we have to assume it’s “B.” In that case, skip the BCC and point to the Pegasus, a surface he has done well on.

[Grits]

Here's something I'm not clear on. Maybe one of you could comment. I've watched Baffert and Hazelton's interview one more time. Bob speaks of the San Diego Handicap, twice. "I messed up his psyche." etc, etc, etc, again, "the San Diego has really messed him up."

Ok. He's upset, I get that. It was a Grade 2, five horse field that he should've obliterated, even coming off a layoff. And now, there's this added defeat.

WHY is he saying, he's messed up his horse's head? What is it about the SD Handicap that has him convinced of this?

Could the top ranked racehorse in the world that he's likened to Secretariat, losing, have done more to Bob than it has done to Arrogate? Or, is Arrogate off, not mentally but physically? Or both?

I'm not clear on this at all, and may continue to not be. Maybe it's the dialogue--the trainerspeak.

[cj]

Here's something I'm not clear on. Maybe one of you could comment. I've watched Baffert and Hazelton's interview one more time. Bob speaks of the San Diego Handicap, twice. "I messed up his psyche." etc, etc, etc, again, "the San Diego has really messed him up."

Ok. He's upset, I get that. It was a Grade 2, five horse field that he should've obliterated, even coming off a layoff. And now, there's this added defeat.

WHY is he saying, he's messed up his horse's head? What is it about the SD Handicap that has him convinced of this?

Could the top ranked racehorse in the world that he's likened to Secretariat, losing, have done more to Bob than it has done to Arrogate? Or, is Arrogate off, not mentally but physically? Or both?

I'm not clear on this at all, and may continue to not be. Maybe it's the dialogue--the trainerspeak.

I'm guessing Bob really has no idea why the horse isn't running as well and is grasping at straws. He also lost to a VERY good horse yesterday.

[Grits]

I'm guessing Bob really has no idea why the horse isn't running as well and is grasping at straws. He also lost to a VERY good horse yesterday.

This appears to be so. You had the right term, far better than my own. Baffert was gutted. Too, last night, after the race, I went to "Out Of The Gate" at DRF--I didn't know you were doing this handicapping thing, there, now. I was checking the other folks and heard Illman include you! This race unfolded, identically. Exactly how you stated it would. Good on you for that one. .... I'll be checking back. :lol:

Collected didn't surprise me at all, as I think of how many times Baffert has entered two horses, uncoupled, in a stakes race. I know the many times I've cashed a ticket on "the stablemate" who isn't the barn's star. The one Baffert isn't speaking of as much in weeks leading up to the race--is often the one to pay closer attention to. Bob's cagey that way. But this time, he wanted his star to win the race.

[Grits]

One other thing, it's Sunday evening. Does anyone know, DRF, Twitter, etc, how Arrogate came out of the race? I haven't seen anything from the barn.

[Fager Fan]

Well, one could argue that a horse that's won $17+ M has less to prove than most. As for soundness and longevity, until the sport outlaws race day meds, drastically reduces purses for two and three year olds, and similar steps, those are two factors that are less important.

The fans would love to see horses have longer careers, but it's not the fans calling the shots. I don't like to see a horse retire early, but the economics of "protecting" a horse's initial stud value seem to trump pleasing the fans. And it's a double whammy if you're talking about a horse that will pass on brilliant win early, but less than sound genes.

His earnings mean absolutely zero to me and anyone who really assesses his racing career.

I know why they retire early, but that doesn't mean I'm going to start saying a horse after 4 good races has nothing else to prove.

[Fager Fan]

One other thing, it's Sunday evening. Does anyone know, DRF, Twitter, etc, how Arrogate came out of the race? I haven't seen anything from the barn.

They've said he's fine.

[classhandicapper]

I'm guessing Bob really has no idea why the horse isn't running as well and is grasping at straws. He also lost to a VERY good horse yesterday.

I thought he ran really well yesterday. The only reason people are looking for excuses is because people's expectations were off the charts high. There's something in between Grade 1 and Secretariat. But some people already had him in that elite all time great category because of a couple of 120 Beyers and trips/race flows that imho were not as tough as they looked given how the tracks were playing.

[Parkview_Pirate]

His earnings mean absolutely zero to me and anyone who really assesses his racing career.

I know why they retire early, but that doesn't mean I'm going to start saying a horse after 4 good races has nothing else to prove.

Really? Seems like a rather foolish statement - it's not like he's padding his earnings in $100K maiden races in Japan. His resume of wins includes several top races.

There's "black type" and then there's multi-million dollar black type. And it doesn't really matter what you (or I) think about earnings when it comes to assessing his career, but the blurb describing his career, justifying his stud fee and priming the pump at auctions for his progeny will undoubtedly start off the phrase, "....the all-time winning thoroughbred with earnings in excess of XX million dollars...."

His earnings will mean much more than zero to many.

[AndyC]

Since I'm no longer 14, there are plenty of other things to do.

Yes, but are there better things to do?

[cj]

Yes, but are there better things to do?

Certainly there are more productive things to do. I'm big on time management. :)

[Grits]

They've said he's fine.

Good, very good. Thank you, Fager.

Class, I think you're dead on the money correct about the hype. He's hovered in the stratosphere for a good while now. Much of the hype was coming from Baffert, himself. .... I want him to come back to his prior races. He is a stunning animal.

As far as Collected, one can be sure his owners were happy. However, don't kid yourselves about owners not wanting to be coddled. Some, very much so.

[Tom]

Just looking at some old PP - SPectaular Bid.

Sorry, Arrogate excites me not in the least.
He ran a few good races that don't begin to compare the great ones. He is not the same hore anymore, life goes on. Now we can root the NEXT greatest horse in the world Gun Runner, who had done HALF what Arrogate did. :sleeping:

Baffert chose a cowardly 5 race season with three of them at a
track the horse might hate.

Sucks to be him.

[Fager Fan]

Really? Seems like a rather foolish statement - it's not like he's padding his earnings in $100K maiden races in Japan. His resume of wins includes several top races.

There's "black type" and then there's multi-million dollar black type. And it doesn't really matter what you (or I) think about earnings when it comes to assessing his career, but the blurb describing his career, justifying his stud fee and priming the pump at auctions for his progeny will undoubtedly start off the phrase, "....the all-time winning thoroughbred with earnings in excess of XX million dollars...."

His earnings will mean much more than zero to many.

Those who will consider breeding to him will consider his brilliance on the track, his pedigree, and his conformation. His owner may advertise his earnings, but it won't be even one of the reasons a breeder decides to go to him. They will care about him winning (with brilliance) the 3 races that gave him those earnings, but the earnings themselves are irrelevant.

The same goes for our assessment of him as a racehorse regarding his track performances.

[zico20]

I believe it’s either (A) The Dubai curse—he wouldn’t be the first to not be the same horse when returning from Dubai. His stretch run there, where he passed the entire field, could have unfortunately been his swan song. Or (B) He just hates the Delmar surface, for some unknown reason.

“A” seems to me to be much more likely than “B.” We know his likes the Santa Anita surface and many this meet have run on both without problems, at least I haven’t heard many trainers blaming the surface. But "B" is possible, let’s for a second assume it is “B.” So what do you do with him?

Why not run in him the JCGC and see how he does? If he flops then put him out for a long rest; if he wins convincingly then we have to assume it’s “B.” In that case, skip the BCC and point to the Pegasus, a surface he has done well on.

I like the way you are thinking, however, as a better, I would like to see him not run in the JCGC, lose the BC Classic to Gun Runner, then come back in the Pegasus and beat Gun Runner at 2-1. I still say it is the surface, and if I am correct the money will be there in January to be made.

[JustRalph]

the best part of Saratogo Race Track is they give you the biggest pools to bet into day in and day out,

the place is very pretty and you are up close to the paddock if you want, or you can sit under a tree and catch the shade.

the bad part is if you have to go to the bathrooms, there are puddles of water in them, at least that was the case 3 years ago when i went. other than that its a nice place with plenty of history and good banjo players.


i only go to the track twice a year now, The Haskell at Monmouth which i really like, and the Breeders Cup in California. so far i have had a great time when it has been in Santa Anita. this year i will give Del Mar a shot for the first time in my life.

If I remember right, it can be a long walk from the parking area if you aren't there early. Not sure about valet service. I'm sure somebody will fill you in. No way I could walk in anymore.

If I remember right you're in good health but I thought I would chime in👍 I'm sensitive to these things nowadays

[Pick6]

Reading the comments on SAR make me reconsider a visit there on my bucket list.

[Poindexter]

I am going with the theory that Dubai took a lot out of him (combination of a spetacular effort with the travel back from Dubai). As emtpy as he was 2 starts ago, I think his Pacific Classic effort was very good. Wide ct, wide far turn, had to shift out in lane, had to run down a very good horse who had a very soft trip on the lead through what appeared to be very soft fractions. I belive that horses generally curve back into form So to go from awful to very good just means to me that he will come back with an excellent effort next time out. I think we see Arrogate at his best next time out.

[JustRalph]

Certainly there are more productive things to do. I'm big on time management. :)

Not going to touch it! Nope....not going to say a word.......

[castaway01]

I don't think he's past his peak. I think he is just a slow starter to get into peak form. He didn't blow us away til last August of his 3yo season. Then reeled off magic. Took a lengthy break. And by the figs looks like he is rounding into form. I'm not going to question the best trainer of my lifetime(IMO) but I'd really like to see him have another race before the BC Classic.

I don't think Baffert runs them that way. MAYBE the first race was a tuneup, but with horses running such short seasons, you're not giving away 2 of the 4 races just for fun. Also, not sure how you could watch yesterday's race and see a horse rounding into form. I saw a former superhorse being urged hard to keep up with a rival and failing. Sure Arrogate has a chance in the Classic this year, but at even money? No thanks.

[onefast99]

As Arrogate looks very beatable, the one thing no one touched on is that the 2nd running of the Pegasus will be a very competitive race. Those 12 slots will trade at a premium unlike last year.

[cj]

As Arrogate looks very beatable, the one thing no one touched on is that the 2nd running of the Pegasus will be a very competitive race. Those 12 slots will trade at a premium unlike last year.

They are having trouble selling the slots this year. Very predictably, those with good horses figured out there is no reason to buy now. You can get better deals closer to the race.

[Nitro]

I am going with the theory that Dubai took a lot out of him (combination of a spetacular effort with the travel back from Dubai). As emtpy as he was 2 starts ago, I think his Pacific Classic effort was very good. Wide ct, wide far turn, had to shift out in lane, had to run down a very good horse who had a very soft trip on the lead through what appeared to be very soft fractions. I belive that horses generally curve back into form So to go from awful to very good just means to me that he will come back with an excellent effort next time out. I think we see Arrogate at his best next time out.

So in other words, we should ignore the fact that Gun Runner was in the same race in Dubai and finished 2nd (and based on the fractions and track condition probably expended even more energy than Arrogate). Yet, has run very nicely since its return to racing in the States.

[GMB@BP]

So in other words, we should ignore the fact that Gun Runner was in the same race in Dubai and finished 2nd (and based on the fractions and track condition probably expended even more energy than Arrogate). Yet, has run very nicely since its return to racing in the States.

yea, these machines all should respond to different events the same.

[Nitro]

yea, these machines all should respond to different events the same.

Now there’s brilliant remark! If they were “machines” there would be no concerns about their physical or mental condition.

I think it’s odd that so many are trying to use the Dubai race as an excuse for Arrogate’s less than stellar performances lately.

When in fact both Arrogate and Gun Runner ran in the SAME event! And as I mentioned I believe Gun Runner may have extended itself even more by trying to maintain the lead in the stretch after running close to and on the lead for the entire race on a racing surface that certainly wasn’t conducive to sustaining speed at all.

[Poindexter]

Now there’s brilliant remark! If they were “machines” there would be no concerns about their physical or mental condition.

I think it’s odd that so many are trying to use the Dubai race as an excuse for Arrogate’s less than stellar performances lately.

When in fact both Arrogate and Gun Runner ran in the SAME event! And as I mentioned I believe Gun Runner may have extended itself even more by trying to maintain the lead in the stretch after running close to and on the lead for the entire race on a racing surface that certainly wasn’t conducive to sustaining speed at all.

1) The point is one horse may handle the Dubai trip fine another may not.

2) Arrogate spotted Gun Runner 15 lengths at the start circled wide and beat him easy in Dubai. If bias and pace (I have no idea) were in Arrogates favor, so what,does not change what an amazing effort it was?

3) We know Arrogate was awful 2 starts ago(why he regressed so badly is not really important (but he isn't the first horse to regress off an amazing effort and not the first horse to come back from Dubai and not race well). However, similar to CH, I thought Arrogate ran very well (not his best) in the Pacific Classic. Him going from where he was 2 starts ago to where he was i the Pacific Classic is a signal to me that we will see the real Arrogate next time out.

To clarify, I would rate his effort in Dubai as A++, his effort 2 back as an F, and his effort in the Pacific classic as a B+. Going from an F to a B+, the next step logically is at least an A-, likely an A and knowing what Baffert is capable of an A+ certainly seems within range. I guess "at his best" as i stated was poor wording. I did not mean he would run his best, I meant I expect him to run on par with his best efforts against Chrome and the Travers. I doubt we will ever see another effort like the one in Dubai again.

[dilanesp]

NITRO, you are a good handicapper. You know, for instance, that some horses need a lot of spacing between their races and a lot of time off, and other horses can bounce right back with a great performance on short rest.

So Gun Runner didn't Dubai bounce and Arrogate might have. That's completely possible! Two different horses, two different form cycles, two different physical conditions.

[cj]

NITRO, you are a good handicapper. You know, for instance, that some horses need a lot of spacing between their races and a lot of time off, and other horses can bounce right back with a great performance on short rest.

So Gun Runner didn't Dubai bounce and Arrogate might have. That's completely possible! Two different horses, two different form cycles, two different physical conditions.

Of course it could be a million other things that have hurt Arrogate other than some Dubai bounce, or any bounce at all.

[Nitro]

1) The point is one horse may handle the Dubai trip fine another may not.
2) Arrogate spotted Gun Runner 15 lengths at the start circled wide and beat him easy in Dubai. If bias and pace (I have no idea) were in Arrogates favor, so what,does not change what an amazing effort it was?
I doubt we will ever see another effort like the one in Dubai again.
I guarantee that had the Dubai racing surface played favorably to ALL runners that Arrogate might not have even finished in the money with the terrible start it had. As far as I’m concerned, the only reason it won that 1 ¼ mile race was because the front running entries just couldn’t endure that pace over that distance and racing surface. The poor start was probably a blessing in disguise! (If you followed the other races that day in Dubai you might have noticed the Mind Your Biscuits also closed a ton to win that Big Sprint race. Funny how that one had also come back after that race to win another Big Sprint race at Belmont!)


NITRO, you are a good handicapper. You know, for instance, that some horses need a lot of spacing between their races and a lot of time off, and other horses can bounce right back with a great performance on short rest.

So Gun Runner didn't Dubai bounce and Arrogate might have. That's completely possible! Two different horses, two different form cycles, two different physical conditions.
I certainly agree that each horse is different. However, I never believed in the “bounce” theory. Besides Arrogate certainly has sufficient time between races to recuperate. My overall suggestion is that people should consider the overall record of Speed & Stamina of an animal before making ludicrous comparisons to those Great horses of days gone by.

[lamboguy]

i concur

[dilanesp]

I agree about the ludicrous comparisons. We really don't realize what a career looks like in modern horse racing, because so few horses have them.

Arrogate strung 4 monster races in a row, which was a significant achievement, but it isn't the same as the great careers that the all time great horses had.

Arrogate might be something comparable to Noor, who ran a handful of races that are among the greatest in the history of American racing, but also had some stupid losses and didn't run enough to prove his true greatness. But Arrogate is nothing like Secretatiat, Spectacular Bid, etc., that he had been compared to.

[cj]

There is no way to compare the careers of past generations to those of today. There is no incentive for horses to race more due to the huge purses. I mean, just look at Arrogate's career earnings. Further, horses probably can't race as often, mostly due to race day medications (especially Lasix) in my opinion. Trainers have to use them to keep up with others, but it also means races take a lot more out of the horse.

[Poindexter]

I guarantee that had the Dubai racing surface played favorably to ALL runners that Arrogate might not have even finished in the money with the terrible start it had. As far as I’m concerned, the only reason it won that 1 ¼ mile race was because the front running entries just couldn’t endure that pace over that distance and racing surface. The poor start was probably a blessing in disguise! (If you followed the other races that day in Dubai you might have noticed the Mind Your Biscuits also closed a ton to win that Big Sprint race. Funny how that one had also come back after that race to win another Big Sprint race at Belmont!)



I certainly agree that each horse is different. However, I never believed in the “bounce” theory. Besides Arrogate certainly has sufficient time between races to recuperate. My overall suggestion is that people should consider the overall record of Speed & Stamina of an animal before making ludicrous comparisons to those Great horses of days gone by.

I am so confused. Given that tremendous bias in Dubai, you certainly would have had to downgrade Mind your Bicuit's chances when he came back to Belmont. But he won(easy if I recall correctly). Go figure. Confusing game.

Regarding bounce theory, not a huge part of my capping, but whenever a horse runs an extraordinary performance, it I always consider it within the realm of possibility that he/she may regress and perhaps regress badly. I am sure a few bridgejumpers wish they considered the bounce theory when they lost a huge amount of money on Arrogate to show.

The good news is that when/if Arrogate races against Gun Runner, you can bet Gun Runner and I will bet Arrogate. That is what makes this game so fun.

[CincyHorseplayer]

DILANE. SHUT. UP. :pound:

You really believe only upstate NY women are at Saratoga Racecourse? You roll out this crap out about every three years. Same old, same old.

What you know about Saratoga Springs, NY wouldn't span the head of a pin. What you know about the National Historic Register of Places, and what is required for these buildings, private homes, neighborhoods, etc to remain as such...is even less.

(The track has long been on the Historic Register and the grandstand is not creaky. If it didn't collapse when Rachel won the Woodward, it ain't gonna.)

Grits great post!:cool:

[Nitro]

The good news is that when/if Arrogate races against Gun Runner, you can bet Gun Runner and I will bet Arrogate. That is what makes this game so fun.

I won’t commit to that until I see Gun Runner’s performance in the Woodward on Sept 2 at SAR. We already know that the front runner Neolithic is supposed to be in that race. So, if GR can put that one away and win, I would say “Watch out Collected”, GR’s coming West for the Big test in the BC Cup. (Notice I didn’t mention Arrogate, and I won’t down the road unless there’s a positive reason to).
It certainly is fun to try and delve into future possibilities and predictions.

[GMB@BP]

Of course it could be a million other things that have hurt Arrogate other than some Dubai bounce, or any bounce at all.

but to be fair Arrogate did not come out of the trip well, he lost weight and had trouble putting it back on, so Dubai bounce or whatever it may be that trip had an affect on him physically. Its not to say that happens to all horses who go over there but it did to him.

[GMB@BP]

I won’t commit to that until I see Gun Runner’s performance in the Woodward on Sept 2 at SAR. We already know that the front runner Neolithic is supposed to be in that race. So, if GR can put that one away and win, I would say “Watch out Collected”, GR’s coming West for the Big test in the BC Cup. (Notice I didn’t mention Arrogate, and I won’t down the road unless there’s a positive reason to).
It certainly is fun to try and delve into future possibilities and predictions.

Gun Runner is overrated. He is a very fine horse but until I see him run in a fast pressured pace or overcome any real adversity at all I am not going to anoint him as the second coming.

[dilanesp]

Grits, I don't give a crap about the National Register of Historic Places. I want comfort, not old crap.

Old stuff gets torn down all the time. Or modified- like Churchill has been.

[dilanesp]

Grits, I don't give a crap about the National Register of Historic Places. I want comfort, not old crap.

Old stuff gets torn down all the time. Or modified- like Churchill has been.

Actually, I thought of the best example after I posted this. Soldier Field in Chicago was a horrible, uncomfortable football stadium. It was also a "historic landmark". They took the stadium off the National Register and rebuilt it as a beautiful, modern sports palace with great sightlines and amenities. That's exactly what should happen to Saratoga.

[Redboard]

They are having trouble selling the slots this year. Very predictably, those with good horses figured out there is no reason to buy now. You can get better deals closer to the race.

I'm not surprised. Why put the money up now when your horse could be lame by the time the race rolls around?

[Nitro]

Gun Runner is overrated. He is a very fine horse but until I see him run in a fast pressured pace or overcome any real adversity at all I am not going to anoint him as the second coming.
I don't think GR is over-rated at all. I mean if so many believe that Arrogate is so great yet losing twice after Dubai, then why not give GR some credit after running even harder in Dubai yet winning afterward.

I'm the last person to "anoint" any animal in training as something to possibly compare to those Great runners of the past. I think we ought to take "a wait and see" attitude before declaring anything over the top about Gun Runner. But you probably know how it goes: Sometimes you just get a feeling that the best is yet to come.

[GMB@BP]

I don't think GR is over-rated at all. I mean if so many believe that Arrogate is so great yet losing twice after Dubai, then why not give GR some credit after running even harder in Dubai yet winning afterward.

I'm the last person to "anoint" any animal in training as something to possibly compare to those Great runners of the past. I think we ought to take "a wait and see" attitude before declaring anything over the top about Gun Runner. But you probably know how it goes: Sometimes you just get a feeling that the best is yet to come.

I have to view things from a handicapping perspective. I am not trying to take anything away from Gun Runner as he makes those candy trips by using his natural speed to gain advantage which has left him loose on the lead which often generates very fast final times, often a horses top figures are earned just like that.

Looking back over 4 race run for Gun Runner back to the Clark he has not faced any decent front running speed. The one race it looked like there may be one horse to challenge him was the Foster where inexplicably Birdsong was rated.

Now Hall of Fame resumes have been built with tactics and race dynamics like this, Songbird and Azeri are two horses who come to mind.

So when the race dynamic is there I will take my shot. Until then I am sure he keeps jogging as he is much better than those he has faced (other than the old Arrogate who jogged by him).