Teach
08-19-2017, 08:38 AM
Race One:
I glimmed the replay of :8: SOUTHSIDE WARRIOR’S last race (He finished -- with energy -- a closing 3rd, despite being fanned out, to a gate-to-wire winner, Glorious Empire, on the first Saturday of the Spa meet). I believe now, with both a smaller field and with a class drop, this gelding becomes a contender. Javier Castellano reprises the ride for trainer Mark Casse. Others: 5, 3, 2
Race Two:
:9: DISCOVERED is my medium-longshot selection in this turf route. First, I like the fact that this highly-priced Gemologist-bred 2 year-old chestnut colt has a race under his belt – a 50k MSW at GP about one month ago; he finished second in that one against weaker. Second, the horse’s jockey, Jose Lezcano, has a good win-percentage when riding in turf races. Third, the colt’s trainer, Mark Casse, has a solid record with horses making their second career start. Others: 6, 7, 10.
Race Three:
:5: HEXAMETER gets my nod in this allowance sprint. I should state, at the outset, that one of my “pet” angles in my handicapping analyses is when horses are going: “turf-to-dirt”. This Afleet-bred 3 year-old filly is doing just that (Her trainer, John Terranova, does reasonably well in that category). I also like the fact that Ricardo Santana, Jr. is reprising the ride; he has a solid record in sprint races. I should mention that any residual moisture will further enhance this filly’s chances of gracing the winner’s circle. Others: 2, 3, 7.
Race Four:
In this OC turf route, I’m picking :6: MANITOULIN. This 4 year-old chestnut gelding was 4th, a length and one-quarter off the winner, in his most recent race, the Grade III Arlington Handicap. Prior to that, this gelding won two-straight, one at Belmont, the other at Keeneland. The most capable, Florent Geroux, is in the irons for trainer Jim Toner. Others: 2, 4, 8.
Race Five:
In this MSW sprint, I’m picking a M/L 10-1 shot, :9: BOURBON CURRENCY. At first blush, this Speightstown-bred colt showed little in his first pari-mutuel start; she finished 4th in a similar race on the Spa’s opening Saturday. Yet, in looking at the replay, this colt was pinned down inside on the backstretch. Rajiv Maragh then angled her to the outside as the field reached the far turn. She was splitting horses at the top of the stretch (he appeared to be looming); yet he ended up finishing the aforementioned 4th down on the inside. I would have to label this first effort: a meandering one. In my opinion, much energy was expended, with little to show. With a better trip… With that one under his belt… Well, Rajiv reprises the ride for trainer John Kimmel (He does reasonably well with MSW races). Others: 8, 7, 6.
Race Six:
In this 9-panels allowance, n1x, my choice is :6: CURLINS VOW. This is another one of my looking-for-value selections. This Curlin-bred catches my attention because I believe that in this one mile and one-eighth race, you need to pay close attention to horses that can, as they say, “get the distance”. Well, this 4 year-old, in my opinion, can “get the distance”. In his last race at Kentucky’s Ellis Park, he finished a closing second, at a mile, against weaker company. The hot-as-a-petardo, Robby Albarado, is in the irons, for trainer Mike Tomlinson. One caveat: I see no published works leading up to this race. Others: 2, 4, 8.
Race Seven:
In this one-mile turf race, n1x, I’m picking the Scat Daddy-bred 4 year-old filly, :1a: GIADA VEGAS. Admittedly, this Johannesburg-bred has gone off as the favorite in his last two…and failed. In yes, she was beaten by weaker at CD about two months ago. Well, she’s been freshened up for her Spa effort. Her trainer, Mark Casse, does very well with horses who were beaten favorites. I should also mention that she had a sharp “Oklahoma” work about one week ago. Personally, I believe this filly is coming up to a big number. One of the leading turf-riders, Florent Geroux, has his feet in the stirrups. Others: 3, 4, 6.
Race Eight:
It’s the 9-panels, Grade II Lake Placid on the turf for 3 year-old fillies. I’m picking :3: LA CORONEL. In her most recent race, this Colonel-bred filly jetted across “The Pond” and landed in Jolly Ol’ England only to finish 5th in the Grade I Coronation at Ascot. Prior to that she strung together two straight wins in Grade III races in Kentucky. Admittedly, her most capable trainer, Mark Casse, hasn’t - quite uncharacteristically - done much, heretofore, in this summer’s Spa meet; yet, this could be his “red-letter” day. The filly’s jockey is Florent Geroux. Others: 4, 2, 6
Race Nine:
It’s now time for one of the premier races of Saratoga’s summer meet, the Grade I Alabama. It is a race that is contested over the distance of one mile and one-quarter by 3 year-old fillies for a purse of $600,000. In this prestigious race, I’m picking :5: UNCHAINED MELODY. This Smart Strike-bred filly has, to this point in career won three races and finished second once in four pari-mutuel tries. Her most recent win came at Belmont over a month and a half ago in the Grade II Mother Goose. I believe there’s a lot going for this filly; yet I have one gnawing doubt. First, the positive: This filly should be the controlling speed. She should be out and going when the gates unlatch. However, as cited earlier, does she have the endurance to handle the grueling ten panels (I can say that for all the others, too)? Her jockey is the most capable Joel Rosario. He has an excellent record when competing in route races. The filly’s trainer, Brian Lynch, does very well both with horses entered in graded stakes and those that were winners of their last race. Others: 2, 4, 6.
Race Ten:
In the finale, a MSW at one mile on The Inner, my choice is: :4:SPEIGHGAL. This Speightstown-bred chestnut filly was closing in a 7-panels turf race at Belmont about two months ago. The one-panel stretch should help this filly’s chances of getting her picture taken. The filly’s trainer, Barclay Tagg, does well with horses making their second career start. Angel Arroyo reprises the ride. Oh, one final point, don’t expect anything resembling the 50-1 odds that this filly went off at in her last race. Others: 5, 1A, 10
I glimmed the replay of :8: SOUTHSIDE WARRIOR’S last race (He finished -- with energy -- a closing 3rd, despite being fanned out, to a gate-to-wire winner, Glorious Empire, on the first Saturday of the Spa meet). I believe now, with both a smaller field and with a class drop, this gelding becomes a contender. Javier Castellano reprises the ride for trainer Mark Casse. Others: 5, 3, 2
Race Two:
:9: DISCOVERED is my medium-longshot selection in this turf route. First, I like the fact that this highly-priced Gemologist-bred 2 year-old chestnut colt has a race under his belt – a 50k MSW at GP about one month ago; he finished second in that one against weaker. Second, the horse’s jockey, Jose Lezcano, has a good win-percentage when riding in turf races. Third, the colt’s trainer, Mark Casse, has a solid record with horses making their second career start. Others: 6, 7, 10.
Race Three:
:5: HEXAMETER gets my nod in this allowance sprint. I should state, at the outset, that one of my “pet” angles in my handicapping analyses is when horses are going: “turf-to-dirt”. This Afleet-bred 3 year-old filly is doing just that (Her trainer, John Terranova, does reasonably well in that category). I also like the fact that Ricardo Santana, Jr. is reprising the ride; he has a solid record in sprint races. I should mention that any residual moisture will further enhance this filly’s chances of gracing the winner’s circle. Others: 2, 3, 7.
Race Four:
In this OC turf route, I’m picking :6: MANITOULIN. This 4 year-old chestnut gelding was 4th, a length and one-quarter off the winner, in his most recent race, the Grade III Arlington Handicap. Prior to that, this gelding won two-straight, one at Belmont, the other at Keeneland. The most capable, Florent Geroux, is in the irons for trainer Jim Toner. Others: 2, 4, 8.
Race Five:
In this MSW sprint, I’m picking a M/L 10-1 shot, :9: BOURBON CURRENCY. At first blush, this Speightstown-bred colt showed little in his first pari-mutuel start; she finished 4th in a similar race on the Spa’s opening Saturday. Yet, in looking at the replay, this colt was pinned down inside on the backstretch. Rajiv Maragh then angled her to the outside as the field reached the far turn. She was splitting horses at the top of the stretch (he appeared to be looming); yet he ended up finishing the aforementioned 4th down on the inside. I would have to label this first effort: a meandering one. In my opinion, much energy was expended, with little to show. With a better trip… With that one under his belt… Well, Rajiv reprises the ride for trainer John Kimmel (He does reasonably well with MSW races). Others: 8, 7, 6.
Race Six:
In this 9-panels allowance, n1x, my choice is :6: CURLINS VOW. This is another one of my looking-for-value selections. This Curlin-bred catches my attention because I believe that in this one mile and one-eighth race, you need to pay close attention to horses that can, as they say, “get the distance”. Well, this 4 year-old, in my opinion, can “get the distance”. In his last race at Kentucky’s Ellis Park, he finished a closing second, at a mile, against weaker company. The hot-as-a-petardo, Robby Albarado, is in the irons, for trainer Mike Tomlinson. One caveat: I see no published works leading up to this race. Others: 2, 4, 8.
Race Seven:
In this one-mile turf race, n1x, I’m picking the Scat Daddy-bred 4 year-old filly, :1a: GIADA VEGAS. Admittedly, this Johannesburg-bred has gone off as the favorite in his last two…and failed. In yes, she was beaten by weaker at CD about two months ago. Well, she’s been freshened up for her Spa effort. Her trainer, Mark Casse, does very well with horses who were beaten favorites. I should also mention that she had a sharp “Oklahoma” work about one week ago. Personally, I believe this filly is coming up to a big number. One of the leading turf-riders, Florent Geroux, has his feet in the stirrups. Others: 3, 4, 6.
Race Eight:
It’s the 9-panels, Grade II Lake Placid on the turf for 3 year-old fillies. I’m picking :3: LA CORONEL. In her most recent race, this Colonel-bred filly jetted across “The Pond” and landed in Jolly Ol’ England only to finish 5th in the Grade I Coronation at Ascot. Prior to that she strung together two straight wins in Grade III races in Kentucky. Admittedly, her most capable trainer, Mark Casse, hasn’t - quite uncharacteristically - done much, heretofore, in this summer’s Spa meet; yet, this could be his “red-letter” day. The filly’s jockey is Florent Geroux. Others: 4, 2, 6
Race Nine:
It’s now time for one of the premier races of Saratoga’s summer meet, the Grade I Alabama. It is a race that is contested over the distance of one mile and one-quarter by 3 year-old fillies for a purse of $600,000. In this prestigious race, I’m picking :5: UNCHAINED MELODY. This Smart Strike-bred filly has, to this point in career won three races and finished second once in four pari-mutuel tries. Her most recent win came at Belmont over a month and a half ago in the Grade II Mother Goose. I believe there’s a lot going for this filly; yet I have one gnawing doubt. First, the positive: This filly should be the controlling speed. She should be out and going when the gates unlatch. However, as cited earlier, does she have the endurance to handle the grueling ten panels (I can say that for all the others, too)? Her jockey is the most capable Joel Rosario. He has an excellent record when competing in route races. The filly’s trainer, Brian Lynch, does very well both with horses entered in graded stakes and those that were winners of their last race. Others: 2, 4, 6.
Race Ten:
In the finale, a MSW at one mile on The Inner, my choice is: :4:SPEIGHGAL. This Speightstown-bred chestnut filly was closing in a 7-panels turf race at Belmont about two months ago. The one-panel stretch should help this filly’s chances of getting her picture taken. The filly’s trainer, Barclay Tagg, does well with horses making their second career start. Angel Arroyo reprises the ride. Oh, one final point, don’t expect anything resembling the 50-1 odds that this filly went off at in her last race. Others: 5, 1A, 10