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jasperson
08-17-2017, 10:38 AM
Has anybody used Brohamer's method of using the drf tv to adjust race times? I am thinking about using it to only adjust early pace times as a check on bris early pace figures which I am now using.

betovernetcapper
08-17-2017, 11:43 AM
Good luck. Brohamer was a Sartin player and as such didn't have a lot of use for speed figs. At the time much of their work was done, Beyer figures weren't in the DRF. The DRF put out a fairly useless figure based on how the horse preformed to the track record for the distance & then another figure with the days average difference from the track record. It was compared to today's figures very inaccurate.
Creating pace figures is a bitch for a number of reasons. There is no prize for running the fastest 1st quarter or whatever, so jockeys try to run only as fast as they need to in order to keep their position. Horses of the same class have different running styles & abilities. The daily variant doesn't break down neatly into segments & using the entire variant tends to give you a wildly distorted number.
You have at your finger tips access to the DRF Moss pace figs, Timeform US pace figs & the Bris figs & Cramer figs. My advice is not to try to reinvent the wheel. :)

GMB@BP
08-17-2017, 11:51 AM
Have to echo the sentiments, having read all his books they were groundbreaking at the time but the legwork is now done for you with the PP services that are out there.

Its pretty easy to get a pace adjusted Turn Time figure from the TF pp's if you wanted to use that type of information.

Southbaygent
08-17-2017, 01:12 PM
Agree with posts above, Brohamer was really fun when info was new. I still look at pace figures, but like much of my handicapping numbers I make use of a track model for pace to see if there's anything to see!

Brohamer's chapter(s) on modeling were often skipped over...big mistake

jasperson
08-17-2017, 01:15 PM
Good luck. Brohamer was a Sartin player and as such didn't have a lot of use for speed figs. At the time much of their work was done, Beyer figures weren't in the DRF. The DRF put out a fairly useless figure based on how the horse preformed to the track record for the distance & then another figure with the days average difference from the track record. It was compared to today's figures very inaccurate.
Creating pace figures is a bitch for a number of reasons. There is no prize for running the fastest 1st quarter or whatever, so jockeys try to run only as fast as they need to in order to keep their position. Horses of the same class have different running styles & abilities. The daily variant doesn't break down neatly into segments & using the entire variant tends to give you a wildly distorted number.
You have at your finger tips access to the DRF Moss pace figs, Timeform US pace figs & the Bris figs & Cramer figs. My advice is not to try to reinvent the wheel. :)
I made my own speed figures back in the late 80's and early 90's,but when bris first came out they had both beyer's and their own figs. For awhile I compared the 3 figs and determined that there wasn't enough difference to continue making my own. Since I used beyer's method as he outlined in his book there wasn't much difference between his and mine. It just wasn't worth my time to do it myself. I think that the old adage also applies to early pace (not how fast did he run early vs how did he run fast).

KPMats10
08-23-2017, 06:50 PM
I use adjusted fractional times based off variant and track to track adjustments based off track pars in my personal handicapping software. Originally used it in a spreadsheet, and then had it automated. I'm a big fan of adjusting, I think it makes a significant difference in contenders.