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View Full Version : Del Mar Paciic Classic Great Card---NOT!!!


carterista
08-16-2017, 08:07 PM
This stupidity has no bounds, only cable companies screw their customers as much as the racing industry. What on earth prompts these Racing Secretaries to card Maiden races as final leg of P-4-5-6?

How am I supposed to bet into a blind pool of racing cripples Cal breds at Del Mar in Race 11. There are three bug boys in this race, trainers that come from Northern Cal boondocks, first time starters and horses bred as pleasure animals that should adorn someones lawn.

So I happened to listen to Steve Byk and he's interviewing Cavallo(sp?), the owner of Beach Patrol, who is boasting how he hit the rainbow six at Gulfstream when the pool was $16 million?

So I get it, I am supposed pad the pool for guys like Cavallo with deep pockets and inside information.

My days of playing verticals are coming to very quick end are going to be limited to sensible cards only designed to pad MY pocket and not some 'fat cat.'

So, if you are a racing secretary at Del Mar or Saratoga, I do hope that you step into horse manure in the backstretch.

GMB@BP
08-16-2017, 08:18 PM
This stupidity has no bounds, only cable companies screw their customers as much as the racing industry. What on earth prompts these Racing Secretaries to card Maiden races as final leg of P-4-5-6?

How am I supposed to bet into a blind pool of racing cripples Cal breds at Del Mar in Race 11. There are three bug boys in this race, trainers that come from Northern Cal boondocks, first time starters and horses bred as pleasure animals that should adorn someones lawn.

So I happened to listen to Steve Byk and he's interviewing Cavallo(sp?), the owner of Beach Patrol, who is boasting how he hit the rainbow six at Gulfstream when the pool was $16 million?

So I get it, I am supposed pad the pool for guys like Cavallo with deep pockets and inside information.

My days of playing verticals are coming to very quick end are going to be limited to sensible cards only designed to pad MY pocket and not some 'fat cat.'

So, if you are a racing secretary at Del Mar or Saratoga, I do hope that you step into horse manure in the backstretch.

this is nothing new, they always put the fullest field and most completely unpredictable race last....only been doing it for 20 years.

betovernetcapper
08-16-2017, 08:37 PM
When Ainsile first started writing about horse racing, he called the daily double a sucker's bet, because you were betting into a blind pool. A few years later they began to show the current probable payoffs on the TV screens & it became a much better bet. If betting into one blind pool (the daily double) makes you a sucker, then what does betting into 3-4-5-6 or 7 blind pools make you?
We have the technology to show what the odds are in every race of a pic 3/4/5/6/7. The money is in the pool, just show the current odds of leg 2 then race 3 and so on prior to the first leg. This is not an unreasonable request. If it can be done for the double, why can't it be done for other multiple races?:bang:

Robert Fischer
08-16-2017, 09:10 PM
How do we take a race like the Pacific Classic seriously?

Arrogate is the best horse we've seen since Secretariat, and ran like a claimer last time.

He could run an amazing Grade 1 race that no one can touch, but he'll be favored in a short field, and we don't know if something is wrong with him.


As a fan, and as info for the Classic, it's interesting, but not an interesting betting race.

Franco Santiago
08-16-2017, 09:20 PM
This stupidity has no bounds, only cable companies screw their customers as much as the racing industry. What on earth prompts these Racing Secretaries to card Maiden races as final leg of P-4-5-6?

How am I supposed to bet into a blind pool of racing cripples Cal breds at Del Mar in Race 11. There are three bug boys in this race, trainers that come from Northern Cal boondocks, first time starters and horses bred as pleasure animals that should adorn someones lawn.

So I happened to listen to Steve Byk and he's interviewing Cavallo(sp?), the owner of Beach Patrol, who is boasting how he hit the rainbow six at Gulfstream when the pool was $16 million?

So I get it, I am supposed pad the pool for guys like Cavallo with deep pockets and inside information.

My days of playing verticals are coming to very quick end are going to be limited to sensible cards only designed to pad MY pocket and not some 'fat cat.'

So, if you are a racing secretary at Del Mar or Saratoga, I do hope that you step into horse manure in the backstretch.

Blind pools like the P4 are wonderful. Bettors can't see combinations that are overbet, and therefore the pool has a much greater chance of being inefficient. In addition, the large number of combinations means that there is a greater opportunity for a mistake by the public.

You can get better at handicapping the large field of bums if you put your mind to it. These races offer tremendous opportunities in the horizontals because most people are afraid of them and spread too much. Don't let "it's too difficult" be an excuse.

Oh, and FWIW, I concur completely regarding the cable companies!

GMB@BP
08-16-2017, 09:51 PM
How do we take a race like the Pacific Classic seriously?

Arrogate is the best horse we've seen since Secretariat, and ran like a claimer last time.

He could run an amazing Grade 1 race that no one can touch, but he'll be favored in a short field, and we don't know if something is wrong with him.


As a fan, and as info for the Classic, it's interesting, but not an interesting betting race.

I think if Arrogate does not fire that Collected, who has figures almost on par with Arrogates best, is gonna win.

I will likely make some plays in the multi race bets with that in mind because the value is gonna be there.

You have to bet against arrogate, the last was too bad to think suddenly he is doing good again a few weeks later.

carterista
08-16-2017, 10:16 PM
I think if Arrogate does not fire that Collected, who has figures almost on par with Arrogates best, is gonna win.

I will likely make some plays in the multi race bets with that in mind because the value is gonna be there.

You have to bet against arrogate, the last was too bad to think suddenly he is doing good again a few weeks later.

Can Collected stay 1 1/4 miles? We already know that Accelerate likes the track and should get the distance being by Lookin at Lucky and his damsire is Awesome Again.

AltonKelsey
08-16-2017, 10:44 PM
When Ainsile first started writing about horse racing, he called the daily double a sucker's bet, because you were betting into a blind pool. A few years later they began to show the current probable payoffs on the TV screens & it became a much better bet. If betting into one blind pool (the daily double) makes you a sucker, then what does betting into 3-4-5-6 or 7 blind pools make you?
We have the technology to show what the odds are in every race of a pic 3/4/5/6/7. The money is in the pool, just show the current odds of leg 2 then race 3 and so on prior to the first leg. This is not an unreasonable request. If it can be done for the double, why can't it be done for other multiple races?:bang:


Though folks seem to have a great love affair with those bets, I've always avoided them.

Have enough trouble getting edge when I can SEE the odds, and SEE the horses I'm betting.

As far as showing the odds, there are too many permutations. You could probably show the 'overall' odds of each horse in each race, BUT, that would not tell you what any sequence would pay.

GMB@BP
08-16-2017, 10:49 PM
Can Collected stay 1 1/4 miles? We already know that Accelerate likes the track and should get the distance being by Lookin at Lucky and his damsire is Awesome Again.

I think Accelerate is going to have a tough time with this distance increase. I will use him as a backup though.

VigorsTheGrey
08-16-2017, 11:58 PM
http://www.xbtv.com/video/del-mar/arrogate-worked-4-furlongs-in-47-60-at-del-mar-on-august-14th-2017/

classhandicapper
08-17-2017, 12:34 AM
Trying to estimate the probability that Arrogate is going to fire his "A" race seems like a fool's errand. "Maybe" Bob Baffert has some insights that could help, but he's the one that either sent him out extremely short or "off" in some way last time. So even he may not know.

This would not be the first time a horse got extremely sharp for a few races and then backed off a bit or the first time a horse threw in an inexplicable dud and then bounced back. The latter is more typical of fillies though.

GMB@BP
08-17-2017, 01:06 AM
the first time a horse threw in an inexplicable dud

I am trying to think of a dirt horse who ran basically like a 10k claimer then returned to running 125 beyers.

cj
08-17-2017, 01:22 AM
I am trying to think of a dirt horse who ran basically like a 10k claimer then returned to running 125 beyers.

Not 125 Beyers, but Lava Man did it every time he shipped. :) It used to happen more often when horses actually raced 10 or 12 times a year, or more. Now, not so much. Holy Bull's Derby comes to mind, won the Met Mile next out in fast time.

johnhannibalsmith
08-17-2017, 01:22 AM
I am trying to think of a dirt horse who ran basically like a 10k claimer then returned to running 125 beyers.

*

GMB@BP
08-17-2017, 01:38 AM
*

Yea that race was cited before and after the San Diego....any others?

GMB@BP
08-17-2017, 01:39 AM
Not 125 Beyers, but Lava Man did it every time he shipped. :) It used to happen more often when horses actually raced 10 or 12 times a year, or more. Now, not so much. Holy Bull's Derby comes to mind, won the Met Mile next out in fast time.

Holy Bull though hit the gate and then was never in his normal position, that was an excuse.

Arrogate, not sure what his excuse would be, the layoff?

betovernetcapper
08-17-2017, 04:23 AM
Though folks seem to have a great love affair with those bets, I've always avoided them.

Have enough trouble getting edge when I can SEE the odds, and SEE the horses I'm betting.

As far as showing the odds, there are too many permutations. You could probably show the 'overall' odds of each horse in each race, BUT, that would not tell you what any sequence would pay.

Probably wasn't clear. Just show the odds of the money bet on every Pic3 (+) on every leg of the exotic. If at 3 min to post a first starter is 50 to 1 you can probably toss him. If all of your picks are chalk, you might want to reconsider betting. It should be easy to do. :)

SharpCat
08-17-2017, 04:25 AM
Arrogate, not sure what his excuse would be, the layoff?

Hard to say how the race in Dubai and the trip back effected him. I know visually he won easy in the end. He came from much further back than usual and possibly could have bounced from that. For me personally I think he needed the race to shake of the rust and reset the engine. Not the first or last horse to come back from Dubai and throw a dud.

Tom
08-17-2017, 06:45 PM
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
Arrogate, not sure what his excuse would be, the layoff?

Every time he raced withing 2 months, he won.
His first race and the 4 month layoff race he lost.

Spalding No!
08-17-2017, 07:32 PM
Yea that race was cited before and after the San Diego....any others?
In 2004, the 5yo Sightseek tanked at 2-5 in the Louisville BC at Churchill in the slop (she was a Grade 1 winner in the slop previously), running off-the-board. Next out dueled with HOY Azeri, running that one into the ground in the Ogden Phipps.

Azeri herself, who was last by a pole in the Phipps, came right back and outran Sightseek from start-to-finish in the Go For Wand.

In 1989, the streaking Bayakoa was buried under 127 lbs in the Chula Vista, finishing last at odds-on. Was a known bleeder, but that race was in CA, and she ran 3 weeks later shipping to Belmont and crushed champion Open Mind (who had won 10 in a row) without the benefit of Lasix.

In 1993, Paseana was throttled in the Ruffian at 6-5 and came back to win the Spinster.

In 1988, Alysheba was obliterated in both the Pimlico Special and the Hollywood Gold Cup after winning everything at Santa Anita, then won 4 straight Grade 1s in the East to close out his career, setting a pair of 10f track records in the process (Belmont and Meadowlands).

VigorsTheGrey
08-17-2017, 07:40 PM
Could be that Arrogate's last start off the layoff was REALLY intended as ONLY a workout with the goal of winning the Pacific Classic...Is that such a stretch...?

Mike never even attempted to engage Arrogate in the San Diego...The race was so uncharacteristic of Arrogate that is the ONLY conclusion outside of an injury that I can come up with is the WORKOUT one...

....And real money could still be made in knowing it was only a workout for the Pacific Classic...

GMB@BP
08-17-2017, 07:53 PM
In 1988, Alysheba was obliterated in both the Pimlico Special and the Hollywood Gold Cup after winning everything at Santa Anita, then won 4 straight Grade 1s in the East to close out his career, setting a pair of 10f track records in the process (Belmont and Meadowlands).

This is the only one that is even close to Arrogate in terms of ability. But good list.

VigorsTheGrey
08-17-2017, 07:58 PM
Will Collected be used to soften up Accelerate....with Arrogate able to sit just behind these two for the final drive to the wire....?

Valuist
08-17-2017, 08:52 PM
Blind pools like the P4 are wonderful. Bettors can't see combinations that are overbet, and therefore the pool has a much greater chance of being inefficient. In addition, the large number of combinations means that there is a greater opportunity for a mistake by the public.

You can get better at handicapping the large field of bums if you put your mind to it. These races offer tremendous opportunities in the horizontals because most people are afraid of them and spread too much. Don't let "it's too difficult" be an excuse.

Oh, and FWIW, I concur completely regarding the cable companies!

That used to be true. When Pic 3s were introduced two and a half decades ago, you'd see a crazy payoff everyday. Three 4-1s returning $500 for a $2 ticket, etc. The public wised up and realized trying to crush one cold combination was a waste. Then the ticket price dropped meant even small bankrolls could spread pretty deep.

I rarely see those anymore. Pic 3s and Pic 4s used to be my favorite wagers. I rarely play them anymore.

SharpCat
08-17-2017, 09:39 PM
Will Collected be used to soften up Accelerate....with Arrogate able to sit just behind these two for the final drive to the wire....?

Collected dusted Accelerate by about 14 lengths 2 back. Given the post position I would assume Collected to be sent to the lead with Collected tracking him.

Psychotic Parakeet
08-17-2017, 11:18 PM
Hard to say how the race in Dubai and the trip back effected him. I know visually he won easy in the end. He came from much further back than usual and possibly could have bounced from that. For me personally I think he needed the race to shake of the rust and reset the engine. Not the first or last horse to come back from Dubai and throw a dud.

I read that he was off of his feed when he came back, and lost a little over 100 lbs. Pretty obvious it affected him greatly, and that is why they gave him nearly four months to come around. I'm sure running all over the country prior to Dubai probably added up a little bit too.

Mc990
08-18-2017, 08:29 AM
This stupidity has no bounds, only cable companies screw their customers as much as the racing industry. What on earth prompts these Racing Secretaries to card Maiden races as final leg of P-4-5-6?

How am I supposed to bet into a blind pool of racing cripples Cal breds at Del Mar in Race 11. There are three bug boys in this race, trainers that come from Northern Cal boondocks, first time starters and horses bred as pleasure animals that should adorn someones lawn.

So I happened to listen to Steve Byk and he's interviewing Cavallo(sp?), the owner of Beach Patrol, who is boasting how he hit the rainbow six at Gulfstream when the pool was $16 million?

So I get it, I am supposed pad the pool for guys like Cavallo with deep pockets and inside information.

My days of playing verticals are coming to very quick end are going to be limited to sensible cards only designed to pad MY pocket and not some 'fat cat.'

So, if you are a racing secretary at Del Mar or Saratoga, I do hope that you step into horse manure in the backstretch.

Wow. A little bitter, eh? As another poster mentioned, they've been carding these for years... deal with it.

I'll assume you're implying that it takes inside info to beat a maiden race? It might help but I highly doubt a guy like Covello needs inside info to take your money. As he mentioned, he uses the TG figures to anchor his handicapping... you can hate all you want but he and Byk are correct... they're worth every penny. It's the difference between buying your groceries at Whole Foods vs Walmart. Whole Foods is not for everyone... I understand.

Also the pick 6 at GP you're referring to was a mandatory payout day... it was hit by many that day and was far from impossible.

It seems to me like we need more guys like him to move this game along for the next generation and less chronic whiners like yourself.

salty
08-18-2017, 12:53 PM
He won the rainbow pick 6 the day before, or 2 days before the mandatory payout and i think it paid 6 million. He bet two tickets tgat either cost 12k or 16k each.

They looked like:

all/all/all/2,3/all/all

all/all/all/4,6/all/all

Anyways now that you have more accurate information on that topic.

How can you call a card b's because the last race is for maidens? I think everyday the last race at Saratoga is maidens, every day the low level tracks end with really bad races too. Why run a good race when half the crowd is packing their bags and heading out the gate? Are you going to say the derby card is crap because there are 2 cheap claiming races after the derby to close the day?

Obviously Arrogate is going to crush the Pacific classic. Notable recent realavent history you can refer to is a certain horse named American Pharoah. Very similar situation to this one. Thanks for the history lesson from 20+ years ago. Totally irrelevant.

carterista
08-18-2017, 01:18 PM
Wow. A little bitter, eh? As another poster mentioned, they've been carding these for years... deal with it.



Yes I am dealing with it, I won't BET. And I do understand how these scams work, they're what is called in the stock market "pump and dump."

Take a look at Salty's post and that winning ticket structure and tell me that this was not a scam: all/all/all/ringer/all/all.

There aren't many suckers left in this game anymore except on BIG days, and I expect racing secretaries to card HONEST and FAIR races on such days.

Mc990
08-18-2017, 02:19 PM
He won the rainbow pick 6 the day before, or 2 days before the mandatory payout and i think it paid 6 million. He bet two tickets tgat either cost 12k or 16k each.

They looked like:

all/all/all/2,3/all/all

all/all/all/4,6/all/all

Anyways now that you have more accurate information on that topic.

How can you call a card b's because the last race is for maidens? I think everyday the last race at Saratoga is maidens, every day the low level tracks end with really bad races too. Why run a good race when half the crowd is packing their bags and heading out the gate? Are you going to say the derby card is crap because there are 2 cheap claiming races after the derby to close the day?

Obviously Arrogate is going to crush the Pacific classic. Notable recent realavent history you can refer to is a certain horse named American Pharoah. Very similar situation to this one. Thanks for the history lesson from 20+ years ago. Totally irrelevant.

I think you're confusing him with Dan Borislow who hit for 6 million the day before the mandatory payout. Covello hit it 2016 mandatory payout day... he admitted as much in the interview.

castaway01
08-18-2017, 03:48 PM
Wow. A little bitter, eh? As another poster mentioned, they've been carding these for years... deal with it.

I'll assume you're implying that it takes inside info to beat a maiden race? It might help but I highly doubt a guy like Covello needs inside info to take your money. As he mentioned, he uses the TG figures to anchor his handicapping... you can hate all you want but he and Byk are correct... they're worth every penny. It's the difference between buying your groceries at Whole Foods vs Walmart. Whole Foods is not for everyone... I understand.

Also the pick 6 at GP you're referring to was a mandatory payout day... it was hit by many that day and was far from impossible.

It seems to me like we need more guys like him to move this game along for the next generation and less chronic whiners like yourself.

I agree---and it's really wrong to take shots at Covello, who unless he's been faking it in every post he's made online for the past decade is one of the nicest guys in the game.

sammy the sage
08-19-2017, 10:32 AM
I agree---and it's really wrong to take shots at Covello, who unless he's been faking it in every post he's made online for the past decade is one of the nicest guys in the game.

Nice guy or not....DEEP pockets & INSIDE information mean ENORMOUS advantage....and ALL of us posting here WOULD LIKE such a deal...

it is what it is...til it ain't...

By the way....they (tracks/racing officials)...REALLY try to catch people using stimulants & pain killers ect...but NOT depressants so much...hhhmmmm.....a little valerian mix in with oats & hay...anybody?

cj
08-19-2017, 10:39 AM
Collected dusted Accelerate by about 14 lengths 2 back. Given the post position I would assume Collected to be sent to the lead with Collected tracking him.

He can't track himself. :)

Accelerate added blinkers last time for the first time in his career. It seemed to make a huge difference. I also think Collected will lead but with the long run to the first turn I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Accelerate took command.

Tom
08-19-2017, 05:29 PM
To the OP...far better card than the crapfest at Toga today.

GMB@BP
08-19-2017, 06:28 PM
Yea this card is pretty good so the title of the OP is a little silly.

Man Tom Amoss just crushed Arrogates chances off the last race and work.

If the horse is doing that bad why is Baffert running him, not his style. Very confusing.

n.c
08-19-2017, 09:54 PM
:eek:

cj
08-20-2017, 03:20 PM
Yea this card is pretty good so the title of the OP is a little silly.

Man Tom Amoss just crushed Arrogates chances off the last race and work.

If the horse is doing that bad why is Baffert running him, not his style. Very confusing.

I thought it was a really good card overall.

ultracapper
08-27-2017, 09:35 PM
Del Mar has been a pretty good betting product this meet.

GMB@BP
08-27-2017, 09:55 PM
Del Mar has been a pretty good betting product this meet.

I have watched about 150 replays this weekend, i was a bit surprised at at the field sizes, there are more big fields than I can recall. I guess the message got through, they are still down but at least the product has been better.