letswastemoney
08-15-2017, 10:27 PM
Let's do this for fun.
Feel free to disagree, as I don't view this as an easy race.
:1: Archival (20-1) - The drop to a maiden claimer and cutback to a sprint might help. Lukas pops up with a big one at times, but is statistically hard to trust.
:2: Borsa Vento (7/2) - His races before the layoff were good enough to win this race. Unfortunately, his return effort leaves a lot of question marks. Nick Zito is hard to trust too, as BRIS shows him at 0 for 20 for the meet.
:3: Irst (5/2) - This Todd Pletcher colt is the deserving favorite on the class drop. If he repeats the June 9 effort at Belmont, it would be good enough to win this race.
:4: Presidential Bird (6-1) - It seems hard to believe he is only 6-1 off the last two starts. In both races, he lost by over 30 lengths. The April 21 effort is solid, but can he run back to that?
:5: Britain (4-1) - What a fancy pedigree on this gelding. He should be a pace factor for Pletcher. Tends to quit in the lane though.
:6: Schott (6-1) - The fade in his most recent effort might look better than it appears. Cutting a 22 and 45 pace for one mile is not easy. It would be great to see Lezcano employ the same strategy here and let the chips fall where they may.
:7: Giant Brownie (8-1) - Well, he lost his dirt debut by 49 lengths and only ends up at 8-1 in this spot. It must be a sign of how weak this race is.
:8: Headliner (20-1) - He lost both starts earlier this year by significant margins, but after another layoff and class drop into a maiden claimer perhaps there is a step forward coming. Again, a nice pedigree for a MCL 20k.
:9: Dublin Express (30-1) - The 14-time loser comes out of the same race as Schott, and after showing brief speed, got drilled by 48 lengths. It is hard to imagine any sort of turnaround.
Conclusion
:4: Irst is best.
For value though, :6: Schott might give the favorite a scare if he can secure an uncontested lead.
Feel free to disagree, as I don't view this as an easy race.
:1: Archival (20-1) - The drop to a maiden claimer and cutback to a sprint might help. Lukas pops up with a big one at times, but is statistically hard to trust.
:2: Borsa Vento (7/2) - His races before the layoff were good enough to win this race. Unfortunately, his return effort leaves a lot of question marks. Nick Zito is hard to trust too, as BRIS shows him at 0 for 20 for the meet.
:3: Irst (5/2) - This Todd Pletcher colt is the deserving favorite on the class drop. If he repeats the June 9 effort at Belmont, it would be good enough to win this race.
:4: Presidential Bird (6-1) - It seems hard to believe he is only 6-1 off the last two starts. In both races, he lost by over 30 lengths. The April 21 effort is solid, but can he run back to that?
:5: Britain (4-1) - What a fancy pedigree on this gelding. He should be a pace factor for Pletcher. Tends to quit in the lane though.
:6: Schott (6-1) - The fade in his most recent effort might look better than it appears. Cutting a 22 and 45 pace for one mile is not easy. It would be great to see Lezcano employ the same strategy here and let the chips fall where they may.
:7: Giant Brownie (8-1) - Well, he lost his dirt debut by 49 lengths and only ends up at 8-1 in this spot. It must be a sign of how weak this race is.
:8: Headliner (20-1) - He lost both starts earlier this year by significant margins, but after another layoff and class drop into a maiden claimer perhaps there is a step forward coming. Again, a nice pedigree for a MCL 20k.
:9: Dublin Express (30-1) - The 14-time loser comes out of the same race as Schott, and after showing brief speed, got drilled by 48 lengths. It is hard to imagine any sort of turnaround.
Conclusion
:4: Irst is best.
For value though, :6: Schott might give the favorite a scare if he can secure an uncontested lead.