PDA

View Full Version : Saratoga Race 10 - 8/16


letswastemoney
08-15-2017, 11:27 PM
Let's do this for fun.

Feel free to disagree, as I don't view this as an easy race.

:1: Archival (20-1) - The drop to a maiden claimer and cutback to a sprint might help. Lukas pops up with a big one at times, but is statistically hard to trust.

:2: Borsa Vento (7/2) - His races before the layoff were good enough to win this race. Unfortunately, his return effort leaves a lot of question marks. Nick Zito is hard to trust too, as BRIS shows him at 0 for 20 for the meet.

:3: Irst (5/2) - This Todd Pletcher colt is the deserving favorite on the class drop. If he repeats the June 9 effort at Belmont, it would be good enough to win this race.

:4: Presidential Bird (6-1) - It seems hard to believe he is only 6-1 off the last two starts. In both races, he lost by over 30 lengths. The April 21 effort is solid, but can he run back to that?

:5: Britain (4-1) - What a fancy pedigree on this gelding. He should be a pace factor for Pletcher. Tends to quit in the lane though.

:6: Schott (6-1) - The fade in his most recent effort might look better than it appears. Cutting a 22 and 45 pace for one mile is not easy. It would be great to see Lezcano employ the same strategy here and let the chips fall where they may.

:7: Giant Brownie (8-1) - Well, he lost his dirt debut by 49 lengths and only ends up at 8-1 in this spot. It must be a sign of how weak this race is.

:8: Headliner (20-1) - He lost both starts earlier this year by significant margins, but after another layoff and class drop into a maiden claimer perhaps there is a step forward coming. Again, a nice pedigree for a MCL 20k.

:9: Dublin Express (30-1) - The 14-time loser comes out of the same race as Schott, and after showing brief speed, got drilled by 48 lengths. It is hard to imagine any sort of turnaround.

Conclusion

:4: Irst is best.

For value though, :6: Schott might give the favorite a scare if he can secure an uncontested lead.

johnhannibalsmith
08-15-2017, 11:34 PM
I stared at this one for a while and had little to no clue. I think I'd play Borsa Venta at 9-2 or better. Maybe.

menifee
08-16-2017, 01:34 AM
I like the :6:. You are right about its last.

MONEY
08-16-2017, 03:27 AM
I like #5, Britain.
His last race was a throw out on a sloppy track, if he runs back to two races ago he will win.

uniquelyunique
08-16-2017, 10:57 AM
Let's see...
Irst will be the uncontested favorite, well, it is the horse to beat. Presidential bird: what a bad ride by Arroyo , twice... Especially last time out. will need a pace to win it, a pace that I don't see happening here. Britain: in good shape comparably, I don't think it will be a pace setter for anybody... Borsa Vento: might go get the lead, with some comfy fractions, may run away with the race... Schott: another one in a comparably good shape. Giant Brownie: I put a couple of question marks next to it??!!!. Achival: with the drop down, looks like the long shot Saratoga track brings every now and then.
Total winning points:
Irst: 5 points
Borsa Vento: 2 points
Britain, Schott: 1 point

Ocala Mike
08-16-2017, 04:50 PM
Really bad bunch - I think they're gonna throw Zito a bone, so a :2::3: exacta box would be my bet.

AltonKelsey
08-16-2017, 07:48 PM
Really bad bunch - I think they're gonna throw Zito a bone, so a :2::3: exacta box would be my bet.

We have a winner!

And bone handicapping is badly underrated.

Ocala Mike
08-16-2017, 08:30 PM
Wish I could have picked them like that for the 3 days I was up there last week. Nobody told me that all I had to do was play Brown, Pletcher, the Ortiz brothers, and Rosario, and throw the PP's away.

And I agree, Alton. The thing to do the rest of the meeting is to look for the "0 for..." trainers. Zito broke the schneid today, and Sheppard should have in the 1st because his horse was fouled, but the stews didn't do the right thing.

uniquelyunique
08-16-2017, 09:16 PM
Let's see...
Irst will be the uncontested favorite, well, it is the horse to beat. Presidential bird: what a bad ride by Arroyo , twice... Especially last time out. will need a pace to win it, a pace that I don't see happening here. Britain: in good shape comparably, I don't think it will be a pace setter for anybody... Borsa Vento: might go get the lead, with some comfy fractions, may run away with the race... Schott: another one in a comparably good shape. Giant Brownie: I put a couple of question marks next to it??!!!. Achival: with the drop down, looks like the long shot Saratoga track brings every now and then.
Total winning points:
Irst: 5 points
Borsa Vento: 2 points
Britain, Schott: 1 point

That was the end of my pick six, I used Irst and Borsa Vento, got 5 out of six, got beaten in the first leg, I had 4 possible winners (4-5-6-8), cut it down to two (8-6)... Ticket cost was 24$