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View Full Version : Let's handicap Saratoga Race 8 (Tale of the Cat S.)


letswastemoney
08-11-2017, 01:56 PM
It's the free race on TimeformUS today, so why not?

:1: Loose on the Town (12-1) - His dirt speed figures make him look slow on TimeformUS numbers. But the connections are good. Castellano is always a plus. Underneath possibility.

:2: Cadeyrn (5-1) - This one overcame a duel to win the May 18 race, and the final speed figure came back strong at 124. A win candidate.

:3: Weekend Hideaway (5/2) - Sloppy track wonder wishes the scheduled rain would come in the afternoon rather than later tonight. Still, he runs decent enough races on fast tracks to be in the mix.

:4: Chief Lion (8-1) - Speedy gelding likely needs an uncontested lead to win, and he might get one. Sharp fade in the True North can be explained by a closer bias. Win candidate.

:5: Candid Desire (15-1) - Fellow gelding is better than the last start indicates. Cross out the wet track starts on his record. This runner enjoys a dry track and should close late.

:6: Stallwalkin' Dude (7/5) - Obviously, this veteran is full of class. No one needs an explanation for why he might win. Top contender.

:7: Candip (6-1) - Like the rail horse, he seems a step below. But note he did defeat Chief Lion at Penn National last November. The price is low at 6-1 though.

Conclusion

With some luck, :5: Candid Desire can sneak into the trifecta somehow.

As for the win spot...:2: Cadeyrn has some upside and might be able to score again. But :4: Chief Lion and/or :6: Stallwalkin' Dude should also be there.

Robert Fischer
08-11-2017, 02:18 PM
6 is either right or he's not. It's his race to lose.

3 gets a fair spot after scratching from that ny bred stakes because he drew the rail that day. solid horse, should be competitive. A decent ride will see him track the leaders, rather than trying to wire.


6 and 3 are both chalks.


someone like the 2 has every right to run an improved race.


No bet for me. I don't love any of the chalks, and they could dominate. There is also a degree of randomness with several horses with either potential to be loose on the lead or to find a previous level that would make them competitive.

Way too much going on for a seven horse field with relatively solid chalk.

I'd like to see a $50,000 racehorse win and look like a million bucks to the betting public today, preferably the 3 weekend Hideaway, because I know his weaknesses fairly well.

Lemon Drop Husker
08-11-2017, 02:35 PM
Great stuff. Love it.

Leaning towards the :5:, but could be an easy pass.

PhantomOnTour
08-11-2017, 02:59 PM
nevermind

johnhannibalsmith
08-11-2017, 03:29 PM
I think that :7: Candip will run one of his big races. This is a little tougher than Iowa, but he's shown this move of a bad one off the break followed by a big one in the second back. The way he works and the fact that they run here at all puts me into optimistic territory - but I'm just afraid that there are far too many others that need to get burned up and run poorly to take a single digit price on him here. If he gets totally ignored then maybe I bite.

PhantomOnTour
08-11-2017, 06:00 PM
Value on the :2: at 5-1...hot jock can rate just off the madness and maybe get a jump on the :6:

letswastemoney
08-11-2017, 06:06 PM
I was hoping :5: Candid Desire could have sneaked his way into 3rd. He had a nice setup...but could only muster a rally for 4th.

Oh well.

johnhannibalsmith
08-11-2017, 06:09 PM
Two horses stepped up with big races there and it is always kind of enjoyable to get beat by Stallwalkin Dude.