Turfday
08-08-2004, 12:08 AM
This is very enlightening, very interesting and should be very helpful IF you play Del Mar.
In the second race this past Friday at Del Mar, there were two
fast-working, well-connected first-time starters entered in a six-horse field that contained two certain throwouts, leaving four contenders.
The firsters were Runwiththedevil, trained by Wesley Ward, who is normally superb winning with his first-time starters and the other was Tizzaround, trained by the redhot Doug O'Neill, who isn't as reliable winning with firsters.
Both of these were 3-year-old Cal-bred geldings and both had received favorable workout comments from National Turf's great clocker Andy Harrington. I thought surely one or the other was going to win, as the other two contenders were Mr. Ching, who had run well on turf, but had yet to try dirt and Proud Cardenal, who showed no speed in his comeback race after
almost 19 months on the sidelines.
Boy, was I wrong. The "known element" ran one-two with Proud Cardenal winning clear of Mr. Ching.
This prompted me to query the www.turfday.com database of every single race run in North American and Canada since Jan. 1, 1995.
Here was my query:
I decided to use the 7-week Del Mar meets of 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 plus the first 15 days of this current meet...virtually 30 weeks of racing.
QUESTION: How many first-time starters went off at 4/1 or less during this period ?
QUESTION: How many won?
QUESTION: What was the return on investment (ROI)?
ANSWERS: There were 158 first-time starters that went off at 4/1 or less during this query period. There were 33 first-time starters that won at 4/1 or less...(a paltry 20%). A $2 flat-win bet on all 158 = $316 returned $226.26...a $90 LOSS or about - 28%.
THE BREAKDOWN:
2-YEAR-OLDS: 111 firsters at 4/1 or less...21 winners @ $6.74
3-YEAR-OLDS & UP: 47 firsters at 4/1 or less...12 winners @ $7.06
MORAL OF THE STORY: Be very careful and extra choosy when backing a first-time starter at Del Mar, no matter how fast the workouts, how flashy the pedigree and how good the connections are.
SPECULATION: My guess is that towards the END of the meet, would be a better opportunity for a well-bet first-time starter to win at Del Mar. First, the fields sometimes thin out in the last week or two. Second, check and see if the firster has had at least four works over the Del Mar track to get accustomed to the surface and is not shipping in from Hollywood Park, Santa Anita or elsewhere. A lot of these firsters early in the meet don't have that opportunity.
In the second race this past Friday at Del Mar, there were two
fast-working, well-connected first-time starters entered in a six-horse field that contained two certain throwouts, leaving four contenders.
The firsters were Runwiththedevil, trained by Wesley Ward, who is normally superb winning with his first-time starters and the other was Tizzaround, trained by the redhot Doug O'Neill, who isn't as reliable winning with firsters.
Both of these were 3-year-old Cal-bred geldings and both had received favorable workout comments from National Turf's great clocker Andy Harrington. I thought surely one or the other was going to win, as the other two contenders were Mr. Ching, who had run well on turf, but had yet to try dirt and Proud Cardenal, who showed no speed in his comeback race after
almost 19 months on the sidelines.
Boy, was I wrong. The "known element" ran one-two with Proud Cardenal winning clear of Mr. Ching.
This prompted me to query the www.turfday.com database of every single race run in North American and Canada since Jan. 1, 1995.
Here was my query:
I decided to use the 7-week Del Mar meets of 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 plus the first 15 days of this current meet...virtually 30 weeks of racing.
QUESTION: How many first-time starters went off at 4/1 or less during this period ?
QUESTION: How many won?
QUESTION: What was the return on investment (ROI)?
ANSWERS: There were 158 first-time starters that went off at 4/1 or less during this query period. There were 33 first-time starters that won at 4/1 or less...(a paltry 20%). A $2 flat-win bet on all 158 = $316 returned $226.26...a $90 LOSS or about - 28%.
THE BREAKDOWN:
2-YEAR-OLDS: 111 firsters at 4/1 or less...21 winners @ $6.74
3-YEAR-OLDS & UP: 47 firsters at 4/1 or less...12 winners @ $7.06
MORAL OF THE STORY: Be very careful and extra choosy when backing a first-time starter at Del Mar, no matter how fast the workouts, how flashy the pedigree and how good the connections are.
SPECULATION: My guess is that towards the END of the meet, would be a better opportunity for a well-bet first-time starter to win at Del Mar. First, the fields sometimes thin out in the last week or two. Second, check and see if the firster has had at least four works over the Del Mar track to get accustomed to the surface and is not shipping in from Hollywood Park, Santa Anita or elsewhere. A lot of these firsters early in the meet don't have that opportunity.