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View Full Version : R8 Saratoga $75K Alwn1x 8/6


Lemon Drop Husker
08-06-2017, 01:14 AM
And the beat goes on. After a monster Saturday card, Saratoga doesn't disappoint.

I see R8 as a the "toughie" so to speak. Let's work through it, shall we?:

:1: Storm Prophet: Once again, the inside horse may well be the favorite. Hard to argue much, as Linda Rice is having a really solid meet and Irad is..., well, Irad. Very hard to dismiss from W/P/S and Exacta tickets.

:2: Peculiar Sensation: 1 for 12 the last 2 years, and taking on better. Rosario would need an incredible ride on this one to hit the board.

:3: Ode to the Hunt: 1 for 16, off of a near 6 month layoff while also getting the ultimate equipment change. Jose takes the mount, but this one is really tough to see.

:4: Shiraz: They haven't effed around as this 3YO has faced elders in his last 3 races. Problem is, this horse has been a pure Money Burner on those 3 races. 3/1 ML seems tough to wager upon.

:5: Yummy Bear: How can you not like that name? Donk hasn't saddled many this meet, and not many have had much success. Manuel isn't sending off fire alarms either. Class is suspect, and speed it suspect. Really tough to see.

:6: The Great Samuri: Back to back Donks. Smoking Joe Bravo gets this one, and it just broke its Maiden 2 back amid Maiden Claiming company. They then threw him in aganst Claiming company and were so surprised nobody wanted him that he lands here. I guess 'Toga was holding a 2 for 1 special.

:7: Jewel Can Disco: MTO. Won't run.

:8: Manifest Destiny: Really tough to make a case for this one as he will need to be on or near the lead, and I'm not sure he is fast enough to get that done. 15/1 ML should be about 40/1.

:9: E J's Legacy: 3rd race as a 4YO. Massive improvement in his last after the claim, and could be sitting on a monster. Respect.

:10: Bourbon Empire: MTO will not race.

:11: Nutzorboltz: Lowest odds he has ever been bet is 9/1. Would obviously be tough to see in the winners circle.

SUMMARY: I should have highlighted a better race. Anyway, I'll go :4::9: and look for the best looking "other" in the post parade.

Aerocraft67
08-06-2017, 11:07 AM
The :2: needs the lead the most but will have to earn it from the :1: and :9:, and the :1: has the best late kick of the three. Best closer is the :3:, but not a ton more late speed than the more forwardly placed :1:, which can win from just off the lead. Based on TFUS running styles, the :1: looks real tough here. Rail post is O.K., Linda Rice second of the layoff bodes well and other patterns check out. Well placed legitimate favorite here, but at what price? Probably the ML which we won't get.

Now the :2: can hold on if it doesn't go wire to wire, so not an all or none proposition. Stretching out a furlong for the first time with trainer not very successful at doing so. In against tougher here. Tough to recommend, maybe even underneath.

Dirt to turf not a terrible move for Violette, but first off the layoff inspires less confidence in the :3:. Not too aggressively placed but things would have to get hot and fall apart some for this one to prevail.

Maker wins these races, and does well with 45 days between races, and steps the :4: up a bit. Handled the Cutler Bay mile well enough. Should get the preferred tracking position. Certainly a viable contender but maybe not one to bet at 3/1 or less.

Claim to allowance and won last doesn't inspire, but sprint to route does for Donk's :5:, another tracker at a better price. Hasn't posted a fig with some of these but not too aggressively placed. Only missed the superfecta once this year. I can learn to like this one at 15/1, especially underneath.

Less appealing Donk stablemate :6:, more aggressively placed here and looks to come from far back with middling late kick. Could snatch a little piece if things heat up but prefer others.

The other Brown brings :8: up from the claiming ranks but doesn't fare well with that move, although sneaks into 3 y.o. allowances here. Previous rivals weren't much less than these though and ran well last. Looks to be right on the pace and isn't an outright speedball. Like :5:, another longshot to consider, especially underneath.

Third off the layoff coming out of a race that wins this (facing a very hot pace)? No way :9: stays at 5/1. A bit chilly with 3 y.o. allowance races, but maybe that buoys the odds. Not sure it can outkick the :1:, but a legitimate contender and alternative to the favorite for sure.

:11: looks like an outsider here.

I'll check back in with a play.

Aerocraft67
08-06-2017, 05:48 PM
:5: is live and the other shots are not. I'd talked myself off the :8: anyway.

Let's take the :5: to win and box it with :1: in the exacta.

PressThePace
08-06-2017, 06:16 PM
:5: is live and the other shots are not. I'd talked myself off the :8: anyway.

Let's take the :5: to win and box it with :1: in the exacta.

Nice call Aero! And thanks for a little extra change in the pocket!

PressThePace
08-06-2017, 06:17 PM
:5: is live and the other shots are not. I'd talked myself off the :8: anyway.

Let's take the :5: to win and box it with :1: in the exacta.

Please tell me you played a small trifecta?

Aerocraft67
08-06-2017, 08:12 PM
Please tell me you played a small trifecta?

No, I'd talked myself out of the :8: that ran well (and cost me the exacta bonus), and nearly went all in for the :1: instead of my live shot. I'm happy with my win/place score for sure.

PressThePace
08-06-2017, 08:18 PM
No, I'd talked myself out of the :8: that ran well (and cost me the exacta bonus), and nearly went all in for the :1: instead of my live shot. I'm happy with my win/place score for sure.

Great capping nonetheless!!