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View Full Version : R7 Saratoga $100k Lure 8/5


Lemon Drop Husker
08-05-2017, 02:45 AM
Absolutely loaded card at Saratoga this Saturday, and many a race to get excited about. The Whitney will get its deserved love, as will the Test. Big time Maiden races are loaded for bear, and big fields are abound.

And..., then we have the $100K Lure with likely 12 solid entrants.

:1: Projected: Right off the bat we get Brown/Castellano on the likely post time favorite. Always bet in the States, and always in the mix. Has beat some pretty damn good turn horses. Very tough to dismiss.

:2: Takeover Target: The 2nd Brown entry has quietly won over $800K in 14 lifetime races. This will be his maiden race in 2017, and has been working decently. Not great. An obviously tough read.

:3: Zennor: Has won his last two and deserves a chance at better. This just doesn't look like the most opportune spot for him. Could be a bottom filler for exotics.

:4: Our Way: FloGo could make a huge difference for this one, but it would have to be monumental to turn the tide on his overall form. Rolling in off of 2 bullet works at this place. Interesting.

:5: Vorticity: Turf? How is this not an MTO entry? And why in this race? Entry makes absolutely no sense.

:6: Aubenas: Stall has had a really nice, quiet, and solid meet thus far. Now saddles a Frenchie. Need to respect, but hard to include this one on any ticket.

:7: Blacktype: Consistenly overbet, and Rajiv in the irons with his 1 for 24 record thus far in this meet is far from comforting. Tough to exclude from exotics and can certainly win with his best.

:8: Ring Weekend: MONEY BURNER. The love for this horse form bettors simply doesn't match his record. Last 5 races he has been favored, or near favorite, and hit the board a single time. And that was in an $50K OC race last out. PASS.

:9: Mohaymen: MTO. Pass either way. Let his fans wager on him.

:10: Fire Away: Post will be a problem with this one, as he needs to be on or near the lead to have a chance. Shug and Johnny V, but they've teamed up for most of his career. Hard to like.

:11: Camelot Kitten: And yet another Brown entry with Irad in the irons. Horse wins when things go his way. Not sure that happens from this far outside. 5 wins in 11 races against solid company, along with 3 seconds is really tough to overlook though. And a Graded Stakes veteran. However, the Ramseys always seem to make a presence on big race days. This is a big race day.

:12: Macagone: Interesting entry that should press the pace. Needs a perfect trip to get it done. Carmouche has had a couple of nice days at the circus. Can't be dismissed.

:13: Red Rifle: Another MTO that likely won't race. Hasn't won a race since Nixon was President.

SUMMARY: Tough field, but that is expected at Saratoga. Looking to fit the :4: in here somewhere for now.

Aerocraft67
08-05-2017, 12:50 PM
As if the :1: weren't formidable enough already, it gets favorable post on the rail.

:2: Has the credentials, but earned last year. Brown slightly less than perfect on this layoff. Subtle pace disadvantage. Like his others more, and other closers.

:3: Similar running proposition as :1:, just not quite as good. Great record coming to this, which sets up for him. Great stakes record, but poor allowance-to-stakes moves?

:4: Seems weakest of midpack runners and not quite as good as these.

:6: Blinkers off and first with trainer favorable angles, but shipping from softer French tracks. Timeform figs look less than these. Too little to recommend this one for a major piece.

:7: Longest line of classiest races before the last one, running well but not winning. Won one at this caliber at Laurel in September. Would have liked to see better performance last time out, but I otherwise like this one today as the most forwardly placed closer.

:8: Had great 2016 form but hasn't shown as much this year after several races with great trainer. Similar runner as :7:, which I prefer, at better odds. A good ride could get this one back in contention for a piece, but third ML choice too rich for me on top.

:10: Possibly at the front of the pack, behind the leaders. Could get a piece from that position. Not sure how much upside is in this 5 y.o, but lighter raced than many of these.

:11: As second choice, I'm against this one. Never showed enough to win this in 2016 campaign and Brown a shade less than perfect on this long layoff.

:12: Could control the pace and even wire the field, with the wildcard :5: out. Wired with a hot pace two back, burst out of tracking position to nail :7: again at AQU five back. I do like this one at a price, but seems a bit of an all-or-none proposition.

Really hard to get past the :1: for the win, but odds will reflect that. Would need good odds to take a shot with the :12: upset. Too many of these could hit third for the trifecta.

:1:,:12:/:1:,:12:,:3:,:7: or something like that.

Aerocraft67
08-05-2017, 05:19 PM
:12: a bit dead on the board, :3: is live, :1: about ML, although slightly higher given the scratch. Don't think that changes my view.

CincyHorseplayer
08-05-2017, 11:42 PM
LDH I read this in the morning but didn't have time to respond. Great breakdown. Keep em coming. I was on the :1: but had the exacta saver. Was completely surprised the winner paid $30. On my turf ratings if a horse has a 220 at less than 9f that horse can win a graded stakes. The top 2 had a 232 each! $91 exacta pretty impressive. I was at work and never saw it damnit!

Anyway.:ThmbUp:

Lemon Drop Husker
08-06-2017, 12:17 AM
LDH I read this in the morning but didn't have time to respond. Great breakdown. Keep em coming. I was on the :1: but had the exacta saver. Was completely surprised the winner paid $30. On my turf ratings if a horse has a 220 at less than 9f that horse can win a graded stakes. The top 2 had a 232 each! $91 exacta pretty impressive. I was at work and never saw it damnit!

Anyway.:ThmbUp:

Thanks Cincy. I honestly post these just to get conversation going. I really do want to hear what others are thinking and to get some insight other than my own.

I also do better in tough races when I put "pen to paper" so to speak, and put in the required homework.

Took a bath at 'Toga today, but damn that was a fun card.

CincyHorseplayer
08-06-2017, 01:35 AM
Thanks Cincy. I honestly post these just to get conversation going. I really do want to hear what others are thinking and to get some insight other than my own.

I also do better in tough races when I put "pen to paper" so to speak, and put in the required homework.

Took a bath at 'Toga today, but damn that was a fun card.

I dig it. I am so busy in the summer racing seems always out of reach for a whole day. So I appreciate these zero ins.

Bath at Toga. Plenty of players think we are fools chasing this meet. Bath one day. Glory the next. Well 2 times to one anyway! Choosing that all out play is crucial. This is our horseplayer soap opera. I love it!