Formulating a small P4 ticket...

[TravisVOX]

What is the best approach?

Say something like: 1x2x2x1, along those lines. Minimal investment, maximum chance for profit.

My inclincations are:

1. Make sure you're beating ML fav's.

2. Prime singles.

3. Longer prices.

What are others' thoughts?

[mhrussell]

I've now come to a surprising place in regards to the serial win bets. Particularly for the P4 : Only play when you think the payoff will be very much worth it and NEVER SINGLE!

If I can't "afford" to go at least 2 deep in each leg; I'm just not playing. Too many things can happen in any race...and I don't care if it is Secretariat running...

PLEASANTLY PERFECT drove that point home for me last weekend... a $14k missed payoff for playing a $45 ticket instead of a $90 ticket. PP was the last single I will ever play in any $500k + pool P4..

Bottom line is DON'T GET CUTE when there is a big jackpot looming!!!

[GR1@HTR]

I think you have to single...But don't single a favorite...

[Valuist]

Whether or not you single probably will depend on your interpretation of the other races. If you have two chaotic races where you'd need to go 5-6 or more deep, you're probably going to need to single one race. I also don't think its a crime to single a favorite; even with an even money horse you can still get a nice payoff if you beat two (or three) of the other favorites.

Also, if you have rolling pic 3s within the Pic 4 you can cut back costs by singling in the opening leg, knowing that if you're out after the opening race, you can proceed with Pic 3s in the following race.

If you don't have a big bankroll but you still want to play the Pic 4 then forget about the other wagers. Save your money for a sizable Pic 4 ticket where you know if you hit, you're likely to have a big score.

[Speed Figure]

This is my best bet at the track. $45 ticket 1x3x3x5. I must have a single, and I don't care if it's 4-1 or 6-5 just win the race!

[freeneasy]

Originally posted by TravisVOX
What is the best approach?

Say something like: 1x2x2x1, along those lines. Minimal investment, maximum chance for profit.

My inclincations are:

1. Make sure you're beating ML fav's.

2. Prime singles.

3. Longer prices.

What are others' thoughts?

minimal investment, maximum payoff? on a $4 ticket the maximum payoff you should hope for and expect is maybe $100-$110. cause on a $4 ticket you aint going to hit much more then that letalone a monster payoff. oh sure anything can happen on a $4 ticket, i hit a $500 pk6 on $4 ticket some months ago, but for the most part to have a greater expectation of hitting the larger payoffs the investments are more then likely going to have to justify the percentages and probabilities involved in winning this type of bet. its a tough bet to hit on a $4 ticket but i guess it depends on what you would consider a maximum payoff for a minial investment.

[TravisVOX]

I threw out that combination as an arbitrary number... even up to $12 on the ticket, even $18...not a huge investment...

[Skanoochies]

I think the only time to play a single, is the first leg. Why? It`s the only leg you get to see the horses before they run. Nothing worse than being alive with a good ticket with a single in the third or fourth leg, only to see your horse all lathered up and walking like hes on his deathbed. I prefer to have no singles or pass. But never singles I can`t see first. Just another opinion.

Skanoochies.:D

[freeneasy]

i dont mean to sound overly presumpuous here but for the most part your thinking in terms of saving money not making money. sure theres going to be times when you feel an $18 ticket is all you need to cover the winners in all 4 races but that only happens occasionally the rest of the time your going to have to eliminate 2-3-4 horses from each fry in order to get your ticket down to $18. when thats the case its no-bet cause then its forcing the bet. if your going to force a bet, that is bet against the horses that still have a chance to beat you then your better off using that single race and playing an $18 pk3.

[azibuck]

I prefer two singles on a short ticket, after trying a bunch of methods.

Oh, by the way, I've never hit one. But I've put $36 on one, a lot for me, and lost on my lone single. I've also played $4 and $8 tickets and come just as close.

I rarely play it now, but like two singles and going deep in contentious races. Like 1x4x4x1, or 3x5x1x1. No rules for the singles, just that they're the lone standout to me.

[ceejay]

One method that I use is from Barry Meadow's book. Establish A and B choices (1 A per race) and insist that 1 or 2 (any 1 or 2) of your A choices win to cash by betting multiple tickets. So for example, 2x4x5x5 would be $200 on 1 ticket. If you insist 1 A choice wins the cost is $152. If you insist 2 A choices win the cost is $64. This method let's you get more horses invloved for similar cost to a single ticket with less horses (say 1x2x5x5 for $50).

[alysheba88]

freeneasy, dont understand your post. Are you saying pick 4's dont normally pay more than $100?

Whether the poster played a straight $2 ticket or spread around and played a $128 ticket the payoff will be almost the same (only difference would be the amount in the parmiutuel pool would be slightly more--but there would still be the one winning ticket for the player).

Most pick 4's I see have four digit payoffs, at least the ones I focus on.

If one was going to play the pick 4, focusing one that would pay $100 is a criminal waste of money.

As far as the strategy, you need to have at least one single and not involving a favorite. Does not matter which race it is, that is really irrelevant. Preferably two singles so you can spread in the other two races.

[Valuist]

I have always believed there's a partial bias in that the public likes to spread out early, so they stay alive and can possibly hedge late if they have some possible big payoffs. So of all the favorites, the last leg is probably the most underlayed favorite in the sequence and a good horse to NOT single.

[freeneasy]

what iam saying is is if your going to play a $4 ticket or an $18 ticket you cant include those horses that will beat you playing a limited ticket. in other words how often will you hit a pk 3 on a 3x3x2 which is $18 throw in another race which has to be your single and youve got to hit 4 races in a row out of 9 picks. thats 2.25 horses per race. now a lot of people can hit a decent percntage of races playing 2 horses per race but thats on a selective basis. iow's 1 or 2 races at one track where you have only two possible selections in each of those races that can win, 2 or 3 races at another track and 2 or 3 at another,. and unless those 4 races that involve the pk4 bet happen to be 4 of the top selected races youve chosen to bet on then chances are your going to have to throw away 1,2, or 3,4 horses, horses that can very well beat you, in each one of those pk4 races in order to whittle your ticket down to an $18 putting yourself in the valnerable position of getting beat 1 out of 4 more then being able to beat 4 out of 4 races.
in other words you stand more of a chance of hitting a smaller payout on a smaller ticket then you do hitting a large payout on a small ticket simply because the more logical horses have a better chance of winning 4 in a row then the more illogical choices have a chance of winning 4 in a row or 3 out of 4 for that matter.
if the payout is going to be a large pay out then you stand more of a chance hitting that on a larger ticket then on a smaller ticket. notice i used the word chance cause thats what it is. percentages and probabilities dictate these things to the degree that you can only buck these odds for a very low percentage of the time, that is a high payoff on a low cost ticket. but i still love it anyway, and iam still going to play it anyway for those $12, $16, $24 tickets but when i see someting that strikes real then i'll get into it a little more seriously,
like the Whitney on saturday if i was to play that race in the pk4 i would had to of played 4 horses, to throw out either roses in may, seattle fritz, peace rules or newfoundland in order to whittle it down to a lower cost ticket would have made no sense cause it was just that kind of a race where anyone of these 4 including perfect drift could have won and that basically is my point, to seriously hit the big payoff on a small ticket is in its own right quite an undertaking, yeah and all this to say that: aww who the hell cares, lets just play the damn thing anyway, ohhh rechted retched degenerate that i am:D

[Light]

If you are really serious about Pk4's,you should "play for fun" first before the races you select are run.Formulate your Pk4 tickets as you like. Then after the pk4's are run see where you went right or wrong,and write it down.Keep a running tab of your profits and losses and see if your win percentage improves as you make adjustments from your wins and failures.Experience is the best teacher.

[linrom1]

If you've been playing P-4 at Del Mar, you would want to spread as much as possible during the first 2 legs, last two legs are usually won by favorites.

In a way that makes sense, since a GOOD racing secretary would want most players out of the P4 so they would continue to spend more money.

I did a a very quick analysis of P4 payoffs at Del Mar, and the 3rd leg of the P4 segeunce involves almost always the lowest payoff, with the 1st usually being the highest.

[Hosshead]

If this is true, any relationship with the P4 3rd leg, and size of field, or type of race?

[Valuist]

I think its the type of race. At Dmr, the 3rd leg would be the feature race and the last leg would often be a bunch of Mdn Claimers.

I also think a good way to cut back your ticket by only going two deep in what you consider to be the biggest chaos race. The race where the public figures to spread the most. As long as you know going in that you won't have a real high win %, there's nothing wrong with playing small P4 tickets.

[garyoz]

I've tracked my P-4 bets and I've had some nice scores over the last few years. Surprisingly most of my scores came on smaller tickets. I think they were tickets were I didn't have alot of confidence or thought the races were really wide open and not appropriate for spreading and was using some long shots. I also have plenty of bets where I bet >$100 in a variety of Pick 4 tickets and either lost or cashed for less than $250, which is certainly a sucker bet. Even money on a pick-4?

I heard Mike Watchmaker say something on TVG that stuck with me. To paraphrase, the players he knows with alot of money around the track don't play 2X2X2X2 pick 4's. Like the Pick 6, bet structuring is the key and I'm certainly no expert.

I think that like most of betting, it is important to know when not to play. The upside of the guarantees is that they attract casual money. The downside is that you still have to pick-4, and using too many favorites is deadly or having favorites win 2 or more races can also be deadly.

[DBC]

I won't play it unless I have one single who is not the morning line favorite and then at least two of the other three races must have what I believe are vulnerable favorites--I'll cover my single with all potential longer priced winners in the other races on one ticket, and then play backups with one favorite winning in the sequence. For example:

Race 1- fav + plus two possible upsetters
Race 2-fav + three possible upsetters
Race 3-my single
Race 4-fav + two possible upsetters

My Main Ticket 2 x 3 x 1 x 2 = 12 combinations

Backups fav x 3 x1 x 2 =6 combinations
2 x fav x 1 x 2 = 4 combinations
2 x 2 x 1 x fav = 4 combinations

Total cost in this case only $28, and if you hit it figures to be a very good payoff with no more than one favorite in it. If I think 2 of the other three races have strong looking favorites, why bother? I don't hit them very often, but when I do they haven't paid under $ 600 to a $1 ticket. Also, if you stick to the guidelines listed above you won't be playing the bet very often.

[Speed Figure]

It's funny that 2 ML favorites won in today's pick 4 at DMR & it still paid over $13,000.:eek:

[alysheba88]

freeasy, actually I would say if playing a smaller ticket you are better off going for the dream score. Risk a little to win a lot is better than risk a little to win a little

[Valuist]

I think the "one favorite max" idea is good for Pic 3s, but non necessarily for Pic 4s. Look at Sar's P4 yesterday; 2 favorites and a $17 and a $11 horse. It paid over $1700. How foolish would a bettor have felt to have used the $17 and $11 horses and come up empty because a couple logical horses came in. I would say 2 favorite max for the P4.

[DBC]

I didn't play the pick 4 at Dmr yesterday because it didn't meet my own guidelines for small ticket play. My only single would have been the favorite in the first leg, and I also didn't think the odds on choice in the Osunitas was particularly vulnerable. My single would have won, and I was wrong about the Osunitas, but even though the 10-1 winner was gettable in the Osunitas, the 45-1 winner of leg 2 was a "buy the race" horse that I'm never going to have. My guidelines are pretty strict and cause me to pass most pick 4's-- all the better for me. If you play with smaller tickets imho you are donating if you play it every day. If I'm in I want to get paid if I'm right. I never meant to say the bet can't pay well if 2 favs win, but in the long run I'm better off if I wait until I think I can beat 2 of the other 3 favs plus my single. Often wrong, but never in doubt.