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View Full Version : R8 Saratoga $85K n1x Allowance 8/4


Lemon Drop Husker
08-04-2017, 01:35 AM
While this race may not be the "highlight" of the day, it is the most contestable and intriguing of the card.

:1: Silver Assault: First time against older. While he has a decent record thus far, this is likely a bit much for him to tackle.

:2: Cavil: Another who hasn't faced older, but has ran against good to great horses. Solid connections, but would need to be a wire job to get it done. Tough to like.

:3: Cowboy's Hero: Ships from Delaware off of a fresh claim to take on much better. Paco Lopez is 0fer 36 this meet. Really hard to see even in the Super.

:4: Petrov: With 1 lifetime win, this guy gets bet a ton. (I'm part and parcel of that). Trying to find a home for this guy, but is 7F the answer? Will be short odds.

:5: Gray Sky: 1 for 23 lifetime, but is board hitting ready. Exotics player at best.

:6: Vincento: Would need 8 or 9 horses to fall down to finish in the Exacta.

:7: Pocket Square: Wire to Wire job likely won't happen in here, but this one has a chance. Would need a great ride out of Albarado.

:8: Riff Raff: Beat lesser last out at the same distance. Maragh is 1 for 24 at the meet. Connections are worse. Hard to see.

:9: Portfolio Manager: Brown/Castellano, do we need to go any further? Always bet, almost always beat.

:10: Divine Interventio: Asmussen is 0 for 17 to start the meet. And now he gets Irad. This is the horse to beat, but he always has been beat.

:11: Lenstar: Very interesting gelding rolling in off of 2 8 1/2 furlong races in which he was put on the lead. Bullet work on 7/27. Should be a serious player.

SUMMARY: :4::7::11: somehow someway. Will need to see on the track as per usual.

Cholly
08-04-2017, 03:02 AM
Does this look like a blown M/L (5-1) on the :11: Lenstar? Iím thinking :4: Petrov goes under 2-1, Chad Brown./Javier :9: no higher than 5-2, and the Assmussen horse :10: 7-2 or less; lightly raced well bred 3yoís from Mott, Kiaran, & Romans, plus horses from Rudy Rod and The Coach going to take money. And Lenstarís connections (Meadowview, Zito, and Saez) are not so popular with SAR bettors.

Iím actually thinking about singling Lenstar in the P6, but only if he is a ďSeparatorĒ (i.e., at least 10-1--in P6 betting anyway). Am I mistaken to think heíll be mostly ignored here?

JustRalph
08-04-2017, 05:29 AM
This thing could get a hot pace

:10: tough in this spot........should win.

:11: player for sure

Longshots..........???

:5: Rosario I like in this spot. If they go too fast this guy could come flying at a decent price at the defeat of those above

:3: How do you handicap this one? Castellano seems to have some magic?

I would have to play the :5: with some fun money......unless the
:10: or :11: are over 5-1, then tie them up in some exotics.

can't play the :9: off that layoff.......... probably puts him in the winners circle

dansan
08-04-2017, 03:27 PM
Take the Three making the biggest class hike and cross your fingers

JustRalph
08-04-2017, 05:46 PM
This thing could get a hot pace

:10: tough in this spot........should win.

:11: player for sure

Longshots..........???

:5: Rosario I like in this spot. If they go too fast this guy could come flying at a decent price at the defeat of those above

:3: How do you handicap this one? Castellano seems to have some magic?

I would have to play the :5: with some fun money......unless the
:10: or :11: are over 5-1, then tie them up in some exotics.

can't play the :9: off that layoff.......... probably puts him in the winners circle

After race 7 I don't think anybody is coming from the back.....closers no chance?

Lemon Drop Husker
08-04-2017, 05:55 PM
This :1: Silver Assault is really starting to intrigue me.

Shipped here way back in May, and has 9 pretty solid works over the track. This will be his 1st race as a 3YO, so they could have easily found a much easier spot than this one. Mott hitting the board roughly half his races so far this meet.

:9::10: look the part. :1::4::11: Ex Box

Cholly
08-04-2017, 06:16 PM
Does this look like a blown M/L (5-1) on the :11: Lenstar? Iím thinking :4: Petrov goes under 2-1, Chad Brown./Javier :9: no higher than 5-2, and the Assmussen horse :10: 7-2 or less; lightly raced well bred 3yoís from Mott, Kiaran, & Romans, plus horses from Rudy Rod and The Coach going to take money. And Lenstarís connections (Meadowview, Zito, and Saez) are not so popular with SAR bettors.

Turns out the M/L was right on target pretty much all up and down the line. Savvy job, there--can't confirm but I've heard Travis Stone is doing the M/L for SAR this year.

cj
08-04-2017, 06:27 PM
Turns out the M/L was right on target pretty much all up and down the line. Savvy job, there--can't confirm but I've heard Travis Stone is doing the M/L for SAR this year.

Travis is definitely doing the ML as he did last year too.

JustRalph
08-04-2017, 06:29 PM
This thing could get a hot pace

:10: tough in this spot........should win.

:11: player for sure

Longshots..........???

:5: Rosario I like in this spot. If they go too fast this guy could come flying at a decent price at the defeat of those above

:3: How do you handicap this one? Castellano seems to have some magic?

I would have to play the :5: with some fun money......unless the
:10: or :11: are over 5-1, then tie them up in some exotics.

can't play the :9: off that layoff.......... probably puts him in the winners circle

2nd at 12-1...... tough course to close on